Thanks for the thoughtful response. I agree with parts, disagree with others, but I think most of those disagreements are just differences in predictions/evaluations. I do want to address this specifically because I don't think I've ever really grasped what your concern is with their age breakdown.
I see a primary core in their exact Cup-contention prime. Heiskanen, Robertson, Hintz, and Oetter are all entering their age 25 through 28 seasons. Lindell is entering his age 30 season, which is a touch older, but still very much a good age for contention. Johnston and Harley are 21 and 23, but they have both been part of back-to-back Conference Final runs and looked damn good in top-of-the-lineup roles last season. I pretty comfortably consider these guys to be their 7 most important players and I have all of them in a very comfortable age range for a contending core. I certainly don't see an issue with your core being 21, 23, 25, 25, 26, 28. and 30 year olds who have all demonstrated playoff ability.
I see a core that is in amazing shape for the 5 years that they still have Heiskanen locked up. Lindell will start to decline before the end of that window but he should still very much be able to contribute in the middle/bottom of the D group at a $5.25M cap number that is manageble. Hintz will be in his age 32 season in that 5th year, so he should still be damn good for all/most of that window. Everyone else will be 31 or younger for the entire window. Harley and Johnston should get better through this window to offset some decline.
Seguin, Denn, Duchene, and Dadonov are all aging players on the downswing, but they also have Stankoven, Bourque, and Bischell who are promising prospects/young NHLers on the upswing. Steel, Marchment, Lyubushkin, and Dumba are age 26 through 30. I see a support group that is structured pretty damn well to go along with this core.
In the last three drafts they have made two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks, and two 3rd round picks. There has been some hit to the prospect pool to service the NHL roster, but it isn't like they have been emptying the cupboards. They currently own all of their upcoming 1st rounders and are only 'missing' their 2025 2nd and 2026 3rd. They have a surplus 5th and 7th round pick. They have a good chunk of draft and prospect capital to help them deal with their middle-of-the-lineup vets aging out of productivity.
From a cap perspective, Benn's $9.5M, Duchene's $3M, and Dadonov's $2.25M come off the books next summer, so it isn't like they are locked into the bulk of the age long term. Seguin has 3 more years (which is an issue), but he's the youngest of the 4 old guys and if he keeps gettin gbit by the injury bug who knows how LTIR might come into play.
From and age and cap perspective, I have Dallas as one of the best positioned rosters to contend in the upcoming 5 year window. I see a perfectly aged core, a decent (but not incredible) amount of young talent coming up, and a good cap structure.
You've identified the weakest part of my analysis. That post contains some residue from my thoughts on Dallas since the WCF. The age disparity concern stemmed from my initial observations during the WCF, besides the TOI issue.
It appeared much worse than it really is, then again, I was looking for something to detract from the Dallas Stars. I was building an argument and that was the weakest part of my argument. A few older guys are gone in Suter, Faksa and Pavs. Even so, they were never going to remain.
Even while writing my last response to you, I knew that their GM could easily acquire guys in that 25-27 age range when it is necessary. DA does it. I didn't add that thought in my post. So, good call out on that.
Looking at it again with fresh eyes, it's pretty easy to see that the age disparity concern is not that big of an issue in the future. Right now, it's a problem.
While they have some old guys and there is currently an age disparity, their future is looking pretty good because of the core of HIntz, Robertson and Johnston up front and Miro, Esa and Harley on D. Not bad. JRob has already once held out into training camp, so re-signing him in a couple seaons is not a slam dunk. They will get 3 good years from Esa. The last 2?
The sentiment regarding Harley is that he was sheltered by Miro and benefited from him as his partner. This season, it will be Miro-Dumba, so Harley is gonna have to prove it. Like, really prove it. Miro is a LHD. He played on the right with Harley, so Miro might have an excellent season playing on his natural side with Dumba. hmmmm that thought just occured to me......
I've argued that he is somewhat of a proven concept, but that was just argument blah. He's not. This season, without partnering with Miro for a good chunk of his TOI, Thomas Harley is gong to have to prove it. So, the bridge deal was perfect for now, but may be an expensive mistake later. I am reflecting general consensus based on my deep dive. There are delusional Stars media, sure, but there are plenty good digs.
I don't think they are in a Cup window. In my eyes, that is a flawed (not deeply) team that has several excellent parts. I can see Dallas, Nashville (love them) and St. Louis as the juggernauts chasing down Vancouver in the coming years. Dallas needs more time. I just don't see it right now or in the next couple seasons. Great parts, but the sum thang ain't gon' happen.
Stars fans and media believe that they are in a Cup window. I don't. I like them, but that roster has problems. I'm not so enamored as y'all. Seguin and Duchene are are going to be absolutely vital to their regular season success.
Again, there's always more to add, but this is good for now.
