What are your thoughts on the Dallas roster now that the last major piece has fallen into place?
I know you've been critical of them all summer, but I always got the sense that most that criticism came from your opinion that the cap was going to prevent them from extending everyone without another move. Obviously the very bottom of the lineup could look much different than what Puck Pedia is currently projecting, but I think we can safely assume that Seguin, Benn, Hintz, Robertson, Marchment, Duchene, Dadonov, Steel, Johnston, Stankoven, Heiskanen, Lindell, Harley, Dumba, Lyubushkin, and Oetter are all locks to be in the lineup when healthy.
FWIW, I have them as the best team in the Central entering the season. I think they have a lot of high end forward talent, the deepest forward group in the league, a stud #1 D, two more really good D men, and a legit starting goalie whose A game is among the best in the world. The only big question mark I see is the bottom half of the D group. However, I think they are absolutely good enough to comfortably get to the playoffs while that remains a question mark and I expect them to bank some cap space and go rent a 2nd pair RD at the deadline if Dumba, Lyubushkin, and Lundkvist aren't getting the job done.
Okay....I finally have some time for a thoughtful post.
First, I want to say that it's been fun doing a deep dive into the Dallas Stars. It's like an elaborate word problem.
Entering the playoffs, I had a NYR-EDM Final. I was with the majority sentiment here that DAL was a damn good team as they had several good pieces and progressing youngsters.
Once the WCF started, I took the time to look more closely at DAL. My immediate observation was how imbalanced the TOI was with their D. That was the first red flag. Also, Pavs, Duchene and Suter slowed down to the detriment of their overall success. That was another red flag. By G3 or 4 of the WCF, I had a strong feeling that Dallas was not going to win the Cup or advance to the Final. They got exposed a little bit and EDM took advantage.
Fast forward to the offseason with DAL making a bunch of moves to reshape their D. Signing Dumba, Lybushkin and B. Smith, while also re-signing Lundkvist (Perunovich bad) was certainly one way to address their major issues on D, but I viewed those signings as a reaction to Harley not immediately signing a contract. Accurate or not, that's where I went. Harley then used his RFA leverage to let the market settle for his needs to be met and took it to the bitter end, while not pulling a JRob.
Nill is a good finaggler. I did not see how they could pull it off with their cap situation. They made moves to make room and then Nill did his thing.
Now DAL has Heiskanen, Lindell and Harley as their top 3 with one a top-5 D-man in the NHL. The "business is business" part is over now.
Of the forwards you listed, only Hintz, Robertson and Johnston can be counted on for reliable offense, imo. Benn is slowing down and has far less support, although he's played the full 82 games these past three seasons. Seguin and Duchene are obviously older, but will/should provide adequate offense to keep DAL positioned for a playoff spot, but Duchene faded big time. Marchment is a bit of a diva. He can score some, but also embellsihes contact. He's a dipshit just like his dad and most Stars fans about done with him. Dadonov and Steel provide good depth.
Outside of Bourque, they don't have much in the pipeline. Bichsel is a Swiss beast, but is a little off his rocker and might whine his way back to Sweden. D prospects, Kyrou and Bertucci have a long way to go. Hemming is pretty good, but needs time. Currently, DAL lacks the draft capital to overcome the upcoming age disparity on their roster. Comparatively, NSH also has an age disparity, but has beaucoups resources to manage that. On top of that, DAL has four big-timers to re-sign in the next 2-3 years. Cap will rise, Benn's salary will decrease, assuming they keep him and other cap hits will fall off.
For this season, I see the Stars as still a bit of the paper tiger that I thought they were a few months ago. Seguin (questionable), Dadonov and Duchene need to stay healthy and produce because they will now have to rely on Stankoven taking a legitmate next big step. Bourque is also stepping into a situation with lofty/wishful expectations that may not be in his best interest. A lot has to go right for this roster to control favorable matchups in the playoffs. Compared to other rosters in the WC, DAL has the upper hand on most, but that aged roster is one key injury away from big problems.
Of course, I haven't forgotten their smoking gun stud man, Jake Oettinger.
That's all I got on this. I left it all on the ice. There's always more to add and elucidate, but this is a pretty good picture of my thoughts.