Around the NHL 2024-2025
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mk80
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- Jul 30, 2012
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Wishing the best and a speedy recovery to Dakota Joshua!
Also a good reminder to never be shy if you feel anything abnormal.
Also a good reminder to never be shy if you feel anything abnormal.
stl76
No. 5 in your programs, No. 1 in your hearts
- Jul 2, 2015
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stl76
No. 5 in your programs, No. 1 in your hearts
- Jul 2, 2015
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On another note, with Dallas signing Lindell ($5.25) and Harley ($4) the stars are now pretty much set on their roster for opening night. Fully cap compliant with a 22 man roster.
ChicagoBlues
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Brian39
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$693k of cap space based on Puck Pedia's proposed 23 man roster. Swap a couple of the league minimum guys with $950k guys and they'll still be compliant. Harley had no leverage, but he'll get the bag once he plays out this bridge deal. He didn't miss a day of camp, got a decent chunk of change, and the team has the flexibility to make bottom of the roster decisions based on merit instead of cap. Good deal for both sides given the cap constraints.
stl76
No. 5 in your programs, No. 1 in your hearts
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I could swear puckpedia listed the roster as 22/23 when I made that post but updated to 23/23 sometime after
ChicagoBlues
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Nill was able to pull it off and then some. Not a bad piece of business.
Drubilly
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Maybe puckpedia just doesn't like you.....I could swear puckpedia listed the roster as 22/23 when I made that post but updated to 23/23 sometime after
Brian39
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What are your thoughts on the Dallas roster now that the last major piece has fallen into place?
I know you've been critical of them all summer, but I always got the sense that most that criticism came from your opinion that the cap was going to prevent them from extending everyone without another move. Obviously the very bottom of the lineup could look much different than what Puck Pedia is currently projecting, but I think we can safely assume that Seguin, Benn, Hintz, Robertson, Marchment, Duchene, Dadonov, Steel, Johnston, Stankoven, Heiskanen, Lindell, Harley, Dumba, Lyubushkin, and Oetter are all locks to be in the lineup when healthy.
FWIW, I have them as the best team in the Central entering the season. I think they have a lot of high end forward talent, the deepest forward group in the league, a stud #1 D, two more really good D men, and a legit starting goalie whose A game is among the best in the world. The only big question mark I see is the bottom half of the D group. However, I think they are absolutely good enough to comfortably get to the playoffs while that remains a question mark and I expect them to bank some cap space and go rent a 2nd pair RD at the deadline if Dumba, Lyubushkin, and Lundkvist aren't getting the job done.
Reality Czech
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I know your post was addressed to Chicago and I'm sure he'll repond but not sure how you can say Dallas isn't a wagon this year. They already had the absurd depth but with another year of experience for their young guys and likely being pissed off after coming up a bit short in the last few playoffs, I expect them to be a handful this year. Their young talent is so good already it's almost not fair. Who has drafted better than Dallas in the last decade? Harley, Hintz, Robertson, Johnson and Stankhoven were all drafted lower (some WAY lower) than they should have been.
Not that I'm a Dallas fan by any means, but I would like to see them come out of the West a lot more than Colorado, Vegas or Edmonton. They are good enough to win the President's Trophy though that obviously shouldn't be their main goal this year.
Random thought about RFAs and offer sheets. A guy is only gonna sign one if the team is jerking him around too much AND he actually wants to leave the city and team. I'd bet that Harley has no interest in leaving tax-free Texas and that loaded Stars team right now. The Stars might have sacrificed more money long-term to get a better deal now, but I'm sure both sides are ok with it.
stl76
No. 5 in your programs, No. 1 in your hearts
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Drubilly
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I couldn't help myself '76 and my coffee hadn't kicked in yet!They can get in line
stl76
No. 5 in your programs, No. 1 in your hearts
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Caps put Oshie on LTIR. Unfortunately it sounds like the end of road for him as player. If this is it, he had a heckuva career. Much better than most thought when we "reached" for him in 1st round way back when.
IMO I find it strange that if this is how Oshie retires that our #1 line for most of the 2010's would all have to retire due to injury. Sort of sad.
It makes sense with the way they played the game though. They all played hard as f*** and never took a shift off. That’s what made them so good together but unfortunately injuries also come with that territory. Nonetheless, careers to be proud of for sure.
Brian39
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I think the reality is that way more retirements are injury related than we'd like to acknowledge. LTIR and the way the cap is calculated encourages teams to offer longer term than players 'should' get so we are seeing a lot of these LTIRetirements.
But tons of other guys simply see their play drop off as injuries hinder them, don't have that long term big money deal that keeps them on an NHL roster and the opportunities dry up. And if you made $10M+ in your career, the allure of making a couple hundred grand to ride the bus in the AHL isn't that appealing. I think that so much of the decline we commonly refer to as guys just getting old is really injury related. This game takes a hell of a physical toll.
Memento
Future Authoress.
Spitting Chiclets (I don't particularly listen to them, since I don't pay attention to immature fratboys, but they do break some player-based information, such as what happened with Babcock and the Blue Jackets) and Paul Bissonnette in particular, are apparently doubling down on the Jeremy Swayman talk that Don Sweeney (Boston GM) refused to take Swayman's calls for three weeks. They want Don Sweeney to come on the next podcast.
Overall, I think it's very interesting, especially since Swayman isn't there for the start of camp.
Overall, I think it's very interesting, especially since Swayman isn't there for the start of camp.
ChicagoBlues
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Okay....I finally have some time for a thoughtful post.
First, I want to say that it's been fun doing a deep dive into the Dallas Stars. It's like an elaborate word problem.
Entering the playoffs, I had a NYR-EDM Final. I was with the majority sentiment here that DAL was a damn good team as they had several good pieces and progressing youngsters.
Once the WCF started, I took the time to look more closely at DAL. My immediate observation was how imbalanced the TOI was with their D. That was the first red flag. Also, Pavs, Duchene and Suter slowed down to the detriment of their overall success. That was another red flag. By G3 or 4 of the WCF, I had a strong feeling that Dallas was not going to win the Cup or advance to the Final. They got exposed a little bit and EDM took advantage.
Fast forward to the offseason with DAL making a bunch of moves to reshape their D. Signing Dumba, Lybushkin and B. Smith, while also re-signing Lundkvist (Perunovich bad) was certainly one way to address their major issues on D, but I viewed those signings as a reaction to Harley not immediately signing a contract. Accurate or not, that's where I went. Harley then used his RFA leverage to let the market settle for his needs to be met and took it to the bitter end, while not pulling a JRob.
Nill is a good finaggler. I did not see how they could pull it off with their cap situation. They made moves to make room and then Nill did his thing.
Now DAL has Heiskanen, Lindell and Harley as their top 3 with one a top-5 D-man in the NHL. The "business is business" part is over now.
Of the forwards you listed, only Hintz, Robertson and Johnston can be counted on for reliable offense, imo. Benn is slowing down and has far less support, although he's played the full 82 games these past three seasons. Seguin and Duchene are obviously older, but will/should provide adequate offense to keep DAL positioned for a playoff spot, but Duchene faded big time. Marchment is a bit of a diva. He can score some, but also embellsihes contact. He's a dipshit just like his dad and most Stars fans about done with him. Dadonov and Steel provide good depth.
Outside of Bourque, they don't have much in the pipeline. Bichsel is a Swiss beast, but is a little off his rocker and might whine his way back to Sweden. D prospects, Kyrou and Bertucci have a long way to go. Hemming is pretty good, but needs time. Currently, DAL lacks the draft capital to overcome the upcoming age disparity on their roster. Comparatively, NSH also has an age disparity, but has beaucoups resources to manage that. On top of that, DAL has four big-timers to re-sign in the next 2-3 years. Cap will rise, Benn's salary will decrease, assuming they keep him and other cap hits will fall off.
For this season, I see the Stars as still a bit of the paper tiger that I thought they were a few months ago. Seguin (questionable), Dadonov and Duchene need to stay healthy and produce because they will now have to rely on Stankoven taking a legitmate next big step. Bourque is also stepping into a situation with lofty/wishful expectations that may not be in his best interest. A lot has to go right for this roster to control favorable matchups in the playoffs. Compared to other rosters in the WC, DAL has the upper hand on most, but that aged roster is one key injury away from big problems.
Of course, I haven't forgotten their smoking gun stud man, Jake Oettinger.
That's all I got on this. I left it all on the ice. There's always more to add and elucidate, but this is a pretty good picture of my thoughts.
ChicagoBlues
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Brian39
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Thanks for the thoughtful response. I agree with parts, disagree with others, but I think most of those disagreements are just differences in predictions/evaluations. I do want to address this specifically because I don't think I've ever really grasped what your concern is with their age breakdown.
I see a primary core in their exact Cup-contention prime. Heiskanen, Robertson, Hintz, and Oetter are all entering their age 25 through 28 seasons. Lindell is entering his age 30 season, which is a touch older, but still very much a good age for contention. Johnston and Harley are 21 and 23, but they have both been part of back-to-back Conference Final runs and looked damn good in top-of-the-lineup roles last season. I pretty comfortably consider these guys to be their 7 most important players and I have all of them in a very comfortable age range for a contending core. I certainly don't see an issue with your core being 21, 23, 25, 25, 26, 28. and 30 year olds who have all demonstrated playoff ability.
I see a core that is in amazing shape for the 5 years that they still have Heiskanen locked up. Lindell will start to decline before the end of that window but he should still very much be able to contribute in the middle/bottom of the D group at a $5.25M cap number that is manageble. Hintz will be in his age 32 season in that 5th year, so he should still be damn good for all/most of that window. Everyone else will be 31 or younger for the entire window. Harley and Johnston should get better through this window to offset some decline.
Seguin, Denn, Duchene, and Dadonov are all aging players on the downswing, but they also have Stankoven, Bourque, and Bischell who are promising prospects/young NHLers on the upswing. Steel, Marchment, Lyubushkin, and Dumba are age 26 through 30. I see a support group that is structured pretty damn well to go along with this core.
In the last three drafts they have made two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks, and two 3rd round picks. There has been some hit to the prospect pool to service the NHL roster, but it isn't like they have been emptying the cupboards. They currently own all of their upcoming 1st rounders and are only 'missing' their 2025 2nd and 2026 3rd. They have a surplus 5th and 7th round pick. They have a good chunk of draft and prospect capital to help them deal with their middle-of-the-lineup vets aging out of productivity.
From a cap perspective, Benn's $9.5M, Duchene's $3M, and Dadonov's $2.25M come off the books next summer, so it isn't like they are locked into the bulk of the age long term. Seguin has 3 more years (which is an issue), but he's the youngest of the 4 old guys and if he keeps gettin gbit by the injury bug who knows how LTIR might come into play.
From and age and cap perspective, I have Dallas as one of the best positioned rosters to contend in the upcoming 5 year window. I see a perfectly aged core, a decent (but not incredible) amount of young talent coming up, and a good cap structure.
BadgersandBlues
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Dallas looks like it's going to be a wagon over the next 5 years. Colorado has too many question marks between goaltending, Nuke, and Landy's health for me to believe they can be a solid contender after this season.
Snubbed4Vezina
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- Jul 9, 2022
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Guenther's game reminds me a lot of Snuggy. I wonder how similar their career production will be.
Majorityof1
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Aside from the shot, I don't see it. Guenther is more complete player imo, but that might be the 1 extra year talking. Guenter is a much better skater but he is not near as strong. He creates opening at 5v5 without the puck by finding space in dangerous areas of the ice and releasing it quickly when his teammates get it to him. Snuggy at 5v5 has more success with the puck on his stick and by changing the angle of the shot. I don't see that translating as quickly or as well at the NHL level. On the PP, Snuggy will find the open areas for his 1-timer, but less so at 5v5 based on my viewings.
