Around the NHL 2024-2025

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Aside from the shot, I don't see it. Guenther is more complete player imo, but that might be the 1 extra year talking. Guenter is a much better skater but he is not near as strong. He creates opening at 5v5 without the puck by finding space in dangerous areas of the ice and releasing it quickly when his teammates get it to him. Snuggy at 5v5 has more success with the puck on his stick and by changing the angle of the shot. I don't see that translating as quickly or as well at the NHL level. On the PP, Snuggy will find the open areas for his 1-timer, but less so at 5v5 based on my viewings.

I think it's the one extra year talking. Guenther has more polish which is to be expected. I think you're overstating the gap in their skating ability. They both graded out similarly pre-draft and I don't think any gap we see now is going to be very noticeable once Snuggerud gets to work as a pro. Both have a lot of deception in their shot. The deception that you laud Snuggy for is one of Guenther’s best attributes. He scored a lot more goals off the wrister because of his ability to change the angle on his release rather than quick release one-timers last season, despite what the tweet above said.

Both can play a strong defensive game despite Guenther's slighter frame. Snuggerud has the potential to be more of a creator at the NHL level (I believe Guenther has the potential to be more of a creator with more seasoning too) but Snuggy's going to make his money getting fed by teammates like we saw from Guenther last season with the Yotes once the college boy reaches the pros.

No two players are exactly the same but they play a very similar game and I have plenty of viewings of both to feel confident in saying that.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I agree with parts, disagree with others, but I think most of those disagreements are just differences in predictions/evaluations. I do want to address this specifically because I don't think I've ever really grasped what your concern is with their age breakdown.

I see a primary core in their exact Cup-contention prime. Heiskanen, Robertson, Hintz, and Oetter are all entering their age 25 through 28 seasons. Lindell is entering his age 30 season, which is a touch older, but still very much a good age for contention. Johnston and Harley are 21 and 23, but they have both been part of back-to-back Conference Final runs and looked damn good in top-of-the-lineup roles last season. I pretty comfortably consider these guys to be their 7 most important players and I have all of them in a very comfortable age range for a contending core. I certainly don't see an issue with your core being 21, 23, 25, 25, 26, 28. and 30 year olds who have all demonstrated playoff ability.

I see a core that is in amazing shape for the 5 years that they still have Heiskanen locked up. Lindell will start to decline before the end of that window but he should still very much be able to contribute in the middle/bottom of the D group at a $5.25M cap number that is manageble. Hintz will be in his age 32 season in that 5th year, so he should still be damn good for all/most of that window. Everyone else will be 31 or younger for the entire window. Harley and Johnston should get better through this window to offset some decline.

Seguin, Denn, Duchene, and Dadonov are all aging players on the downswing, but they also have Stankoven, Bourque, and Bischell who are promising prospects/young NHLers on the upswing. Steel, Marchment, Lyubushkin, and Dumba are age 26 through 30. I see a support group that is structured pretty damn well to go along with this core.

In the last three drafts they have made two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks, and two 3rd round picks. There has been some hit to the prospect pool to service the NHL roster, but it isn't like they have been emptying the cupboards. They currently own all of their upcoming 1st rounders and are only 'missing' their 2025 2nd and 2026 3rd. They have a surplus 5th and 7th round pick. They have a good chunk of draft and prospect capital to help them deal with their middle-of-the-lineup vets aging out of productivity.

From a cap perspective, Benn's $9.5M, Duchene's $3M, and Dadonov's $2.25M come off the books next summer, so it isn't like they are locked into the bulk of the age long term. Seguin has 3 more years (which is an issue), but he's the youngest of the 4 old guys and if he keeps gettin gbit by the injury bug who knows how LTIR might come into play.

From and age and cap perspective, I have Dallas as one of the best positioned rosters to contend in the upcoming 5 year window. I see a perfectly aged core, a decent (but not incredible) amount of young talent coming up, and a good cap structure.

You've identified the weakest part of my analysis. That post contains some residue from my thoughts on Dallas since the WCF. The age disparity concern stemmed from my initial observations during the WCF, besides the TOI issue.

It appeared much worse than it really is, then again, I was looking for something to detract from the Dallas Stars. I was building an argument and that was the weakest part of my argument. A few older guys are gone in Suter, Faksa and Pavs. Even so, they were never going to remain.

Even while writing my last response to you, I knew that their GM could easily acquire guys in that 25-27 age range when it is necessary. DA does it. I didn't add that thought in my post. So, good call out on that.

Looking at it again with fresh eyes, it's pretty easy to see that the age disparity concern is not that big of an issue in the future. Right now, it's a problem.

While they have some old guys and there is currently an age disparity, their future is looking pretty good because of the core of HIntz, Robertson and Johnston up front and Miro, Esa and Harley on D. Not bad. JRob has already once held out into training camp, so re-signing him in a couple seaons is not a slam dunk. They will get 3 good years from Esa. The last 2?

The sentiment regarding Harley is that he was sheltered by Miro and benefited from him as his partner. This season, it will be Miro-Dumba, so Harley is gonna have to prove it. Like, really prove it. Miro is a LHD. He played on the right with Harley, so Miro might have an excellent season playing on his natural side with Dumba. hmmmm that thought just occured to me......

I've argued that he is somewhat of a proven concept, but that was just argument blah. He's not. This season, without partnering with Miro for a good chunk of his TOI, Thomas Harley is gong to have to prove it. So, the bridge deal was perfect for now, but may be an expensive mistake later. I am reflecting general consensus based on my deep dive. There are delusional Stars media, sure, but there are plenty good digs.

I don't think they are in a Cup window. In my eyes, that is a flawed (not deeply) team that has several excellent parts. I can see Dallas, Nashville (love them) and St. Louis as the juggernauts chasing down Vancouver in the coming years. Dallas needs more time. I just don't see it right now or in the next couple seasons. Great parts, but the sum thang ain't gon' happen.

Stars fans and media believe that they are in a Cup window. I don't. I like them, but that roster has problems. I'm not so enamored as y'all. Seguin and Duchene are are going to be absolutely vital to their regular season success.

Again, there's always more to add, but this is good for now.

 

[Majorityof1]

I think it's the one extra year talking. Guenther has more polish which is to be expected. I think you're overstating the gap in their skating ability. They both graded out similarly pre-draft and I don't think any gap we see now is going to be very noticeable once Snuggerud gets to work as a pro. Both have a lot of deception in their shot. The deception that you laud Snuggy for is one of Guenther’s best attributes. He scored a lot more goals off the wrister because of his ability to change the angle on his release rather than quick release one-timers last season, despite what the tweet above said.

Both can play a strong defensive game despite Guenther's slighter frame. Snuggerud has the potential to be more of a creator at the NHL level (I believe Guenther has the potential to be more of a creator with more seasoning too) but Snuggy's going to make his money getting fed by teammates like we saw from Guenther last season with the Yotes once the college boy reaches the pros.

No two players are exactly the same but they play a very similar game and I have plenty of viewings of both to feel confident in saying that.

I don't doubt Guenther has the ability to change the angle of his shot. I saw it playing with Jake in the WHL. But I was talking about how he is evolving his game to be a pro . I see a guy who finds space and releases the puck quickly (granted small sample size). I don't see Snuggerud finding those quiet areas closer to the net at 5v5 in my viewings. He takes the puck high and one-times it or skates it in to a more dangerous area. He may adapt in a similar way as the league gets more difficult, or I might just not being seeing it and he is doing it now.

I disagree that their skating is close or was ever rated closely. Here are two scouting reports from the same site prior to their draft:

Guenther Last Word - "Guenther is a very good skater. He has very good acceleration, reaching his top speed in just a few strides. That speed is dangerous through the neutral zone and also allows Guenther to create odd-man rushes. He has very good agility and edgework"

Snuggerud Last Word - "Snuggerud’s skating was once a real liability but has improved over the last year. While it still is not a strength, it is no longer a liability. Snuggerud improved his knee and ankle bends, lengthening and strengthening his stride. This has led to better top-end speed. His first few steps and acceleration are average and can continue to improve but he’s already made great progress. His agility and edgework can still use a bit more work"

The same scout calls Guenther a very good skater and says Snuggerud is not a strength. I used that site because they have a section specific to skating, It is inline with what I read across multiple scouts and from my own eye tests.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

I don't doubt Guenther has the ability to change the angle of his shot. I saw it playing with Jake in the WHL. But I was talking about how he is evolving his game to be a pro . I see a guy who finds space and releases the puck quickly (granted small sample size). I don't see Snuggerud finding those quiet areas closer to the net at 5v5 in my viewings. He takes the puck high and one-times it or skates it in to a more dangerous area. He may adapt in a similar way as the league gets more difficult, or I might just not being seeing it and he is doing it now.

I disagree that their skating is close or was ever rated closely. Here are two scouting reports from the same site prior to their draft:

Guenther Last Word - "Guenther is a very good skater. He has very good acceleration, reaching his top speed in just a few strides. That speed is dangerous through the neutral zone and also allows Guenther to create odd-man rushes. He has very good agility and edgework"

Snuggerud Last Word - "Snuggerud’s skating was once a real liability but has improved over the last year. While it still is not a strength, it is no longer a liability. Snuggerud improved his knee and ankle bends, lengthening and strengthening his stride. This has led to better top-end speed. His first few steps and acceleration are average and can continue to improve but he’s already made great progress. His agility and edgework can still use a bit more work"

The same scout calls Guenther a very good skater and says Snuggerud is not a strength. I used that site because they have a section specific to skating, It is inline with what I read across multiple scouts and from my own eye tests.

What site are you getting that from out of curiosity?

EP ranked both players at a 5 (average) in their pre-draft assessment and they use multiple scouts when compiling their scouting reports.

Their report offers a stark contrast to the scout you quoted. On Guenther: We haven’t seen enough from Guenther between the blue lines to confidently project him as an impact transition player at the next level either. So many of his neutral zone rushes are of thestraight-line variety, and he’s a fairly predictable player as a result. Couple that with about NHL average skating and it’s just hard to envision a scenario where he’s ever going to be a primary puck-carrier.

EP didn't go too far in depth on Snuggerud's skating outside of their game logs but the logs results ranged from above average to average.

I went back last night and watched film of Guenther with the Yotes and Snuggy's film from the WJC and Minnesota from last season after I read your post to see if I had missed something as I respect your opinion. I just don't see much of a disparity there. Guenther hasn't found a lot of success using his skating to generate off of the rush as most of his offensive highlights come from catching and releasing, after someone else creates for him. My eye test at the NHL level tells me that he's not a high-end skater that will be much of a transition threat. Neither he nor Snuggy are going to be turning heads with their skating ability at the pro level, nor will they stand out in a negative way.

I see two average to above average skaters and I think you may be underrating Snuggerud's skating which has improved quite a bit since 2022. At the end of the day though, often times you can't even get two pro scouts to agree on a player so there's no sense in us continuing to go back and forth. We can agree to disagree.

 

[Majorityof1]

What site are you getting that from out of curiosity?

EP ranked both players at a 5 (average) in their pre-draft assessment and they use multiple scouts when compiling their scouting reports.

Their report offers a stark contrast to the scout you quoted. On Guenther: We haven’t seen enough from Guenther between the blue lines to confidently project him as an impact transition player at the next level either. So many of his neutral zone rushes are of thestraight-line variety, and he’s a fairly predictable player as a result. Couple that with about NHL average skating and it’s just hard to envision a scenario where he’s ever going to be a primary puck-carrier.

EP didn't go too far in depth on Snuggerud's skating outside of their game logs but the logs results ranged from above average to average.

I went back last night and watched film of Guenther with the Yotes and Snuggy's film from the WJC and Minnesota from last season after I read your post to see if I had missed something as I respect your opinion. I just don't see much of a disparity there. Guenther hasn't found a lot of success using his skating to generate off of the rush as most of his offensive highlights come from catching and releasing, after someone else creates for him. My eye test at the NHL level tells me that he's not a high-end skater that will be much of a transition threat. Neither he nor Snuggy are going to be turning heads with their skating ability at the pro level, nor will they stand out in a negative way.

I see two average to above average skaters and I think you may be underrating Snuggerud's skating which has improved quite a bit since 2022. At the end of the day though, often times you can't even get two pro scouts to agree on a player so there's no sense in us continuing to go back and forth. We can agree to disagree.

I don't have EP Premium at the moment, so I couldn't check there. I used Last Word for the blurbs I wrote. That is why it says Guenther Last Word. Click the link and it will take you to the full report.

I might be overrating Guenther's skating and underrating Snuggy. I agree that I don't see Gunther using his skating on offense as much, but he does use it to get in quickly on the forecheck and get back. I know Snuggy improved, but would still have him avagerage to below-avaerage at the NHL level based on last year, Let's hope I am wrong or he took it up another couple notches this off-season.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Fanatics really should not have called their On Ice Jerseys they are selling the "Authentic Pro" teir. It's causing confusion about why the Adidas Authentic Pro Jerseys were 200 bucks while the Fanatics Authentic Pro Jerseys are 400.