Around the NHL 2020-2021 | Offseason Edition

[MBH]

There is more to NHL teams then just the players. This whole article is about a HOCKEY franchise in disarray.

I know. Someone is repulsed by the idea of wearing their Coyotes apparel to work on casual Friday.

Yotes are firing back - playing the woke card.
The Athletic - white-owned publication with a white reporter serving mostly white readers - is unfairly targeting a minority-owned hockey team.

 

[TCNorthstars]

This made me chuckle.

 

[TCNorthstars]

I know. Someone is repulsed by the idea of wearing their Coyotes apparel to work on casual Friday.

Yotes are firing back - playing the woke card.
The Athletic - white-owned publication with a white reporter serving mostly white readers - is unfairly targeting a minority-owned hockey team.

Don't think it has anything to do with the owner being a minority. Think it has to do with the dumpster fire that is the Coyotes still being a dumpster fire even after there were hopes to stabilize the organization with a new owner. Apparently the "family" atmosphere is completely bullshit and lip service. Treat enough people like shit and you are going to get stories written about you.

 

[TheMule93]

Im impressed with Columbus's management. Dodged a bullet with the Johansen, Duchene, Bobrovsky contracts. Handled the PLD situation pretty well... Laine is a great add on his own but Roslovic has been fantastic for them as a 1C.

Hope they can retain Laine.

 

[MBH]

Don't think it has anything to do with the owner being a minority. Think it has to do with the dumpster fire that is the Coyotes still being a dumpster fire even after there were hopes to stabilize the organization with a new owner. Apparently the "family" atmosphere is completely bullshit and lip service. Treat enough people like shit and you are going to get stories written about you.

I don't think so either.
But that's where his press release was going.
Does it matter if it's true?


I have no doubt that the yotes are mess.
You don't draft a guy, say you believe in him and that you're going to stand by him and then ... turn on the kid two weeks later when the temperature rises.
The Yotes drafting the kid cost him his college scholarship.

The Yotes have been a joke franchise for a long time.
I can't imagine how they're going skate through a pandemic, whether they're managed by the Clampetts or Ilitches.

 

[MBH]

Im impressed with Columbus's management. Dodged a bullet with the Johansen, Duchene, Bobrovsky contracts. Handled the PLD situation pretty well... Laine is a great add on his own but Roslovic has been fantastic for them as a 1C.

Hope they can retain Laine.

Jarmo can't get guys to stick. Especially Europeans of any stature.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Prospect Info: - 2020 NHL draft.


Responses:
"You're just stat watching."
"Lafreniere is the best draft prospect since McDavid"

You were just stat watching. And Lafreniere WAS the best draft prospect since McDavid.
Laf is a young kid playing in a man's league which is a rough transition for anyone. He absolutely was worthy of the hype. The stuff he was doing in juniors was otherworldly.

I don't even get your comparison. Veleno is playing in Europe or was playing in the AHL. Lafreniere is playing in the NHL. Lafreniere is still several leagues ahead of Joe Veleno as a prospect. He still would be if Veleno came and put up a 1+1 game his first night in Detroit.

 

[TCNorthstars]

You were just stat watching. And Lafreniere WAS the best draft prospect since McDavid.
Laf is a young kid playing in a man's league which is a rough transition for anyone. He absolutely was worthy of the hype. The stuff he was doing in juniors was otherworldly.

I don't even get your comparison. Veleno is playing in Europe or was playing in the AHL. Lafreniere is playing in the NHL. Lafreniere is still several leagues ahead of Joe Veleno as a prospect. He still would be if Veleno came and put up a 1+1 game his first night in Detroit.

Austin Matthews would like a word.

 

[MBH]

You were just stat watching. And Lafreniere WAS the best draft prospect since McDavid.
Laf is a young kid playing in a man's league which is a rough transition for anyone. He absolutely was worthy of the hype. The stuff he was doing in juniors was otherworldly.

I don't even get your comparison. Veleno is playing in Europe or was playing in the AHL. Lafreniere is playing in the NHL. Lafreniere is still several leagues ahead of Joe Veleno as a prospect. He still would be if Veleno came and put up a 1+1 game his first night in Detroit.

I would hope so.
Nothing in my post suggested Lafreniere wasn't better than Veleno.
The point wasn't to compare Veleno to Lafreniere, but to wonder if the experience with Veleno (and Zadina, and Jurco, and Frk and Mantha) should teach us anything about expectations for Lafreniere.

I'd say those were valid questions.

And I think there ought to be real questions about whether or not Lafreniere is the best prospect since McDavid.

Stutzle, the only other player from that draft in the NHL, has 4-3-7.
Again - just stat watching. I haven't watched an entire Rangers game or Sens game.
But the data says something, right?

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Im impressed with Columbus's management. Dodged a bullet with the Johansen, Duchene, Bobrovsky contracts. Handled the PLD situation pretty well... Laine is a great add on his own but Roslovic has been fantastic for them as a 1C.

Hope they can retain Laine.

Roslovic was a guy we should've been in on, at least kicked tires. Good fit/age/salary/RHS-C, at a Buy Low Price. This was before the Laine/PLD episodes.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I would hope so.
Nothing in my post suggested Lafreniere wasn't better than Veleno.
The point wasn't to compare Veleno to Lafreniere, but to wonder if the experience with Veleno (and Zadina, and Jurco, and Frk and Mantha) should teach us anything about expectations for Lafreniere.

I'd say those were valid questions.

And I think there ought to be real questions about whether or not Lafreniere is the best prospect since McDavid.

Stutzle, the only other player from that draft in the NHL, has 4-3-7.
Again - just stat watching. I haven't watched an entire Rangers game or Sens game.
But the data says something, right?

No, it doesn't. At least not yet. Short term statistics have far too much variance in them to tell you anything worthwhile. That's why even though Jake Allen has been stats than Carey Price this year through 8 games, Carey Price is still a far better goalie.

And no, experience with guys like Veleno, Jurco, Frk, etc. and Lafreniere is not a relevant comparison nor does it tell you anything about expectations for him. Laf is several orders of prospect higher than any of those guys except Zadina and he's still a higher level prospect than Zadina too. That type of guy is not someone you use Red Wing comparables for. It doesn't tell you anything.

Laf is still a better prospect than Stuztle even now. Even if he's 4g,3a in 7 games and Laf is 1g in 13.

 

[MBH]

No, it doesn't. At least not yet. Short term statistics have far too much variance in them to tell you anything worthwhile. That's why even though Jake Allen has been stats than Carey Price this year through 8 games, Carey Price is still a far better goalie.

And no, experience with guys like Veleno, Jurco, Frk, etc. and Lafreniere is not a relevant comparison nor does it tell you anything about expectations for him. Laf is several orders of prospect higher than any of those guys except Zadina and he's still a higher level prospect than Zadina too. That type of guy is not someone you use Red Wing comparables for. It doesn't tell you anything.

Laf is still a better prospect than Stuztle even now. Even if he's 4g,3a in 7 games and Laf is 1g in 13.

Says you.
I didn't have Lafreniere at #1 going into the draft so the stats-based reality check isn't hard to deal with.

 

[Winger98]

I don't know if it is relevant but I want to point out that Kakko has only 3 points in 13 games. Maybe I'll try watching some Ranger games but he and Lafreniere are two highly thought of kids who really aren't living up to expectations. Maybe it wouldn't have hurt to have these kids playing in a lower league somewhere still... .

 

[Bench]

Roslovic was a guy we should've been in on, at least kicked tires. Good fit/age/salary/RHS-C, at a Buy Low Price. This was before the Laine/PLD episodes.

Roslovic is from Columbus, Ohio. The Blue Jackets GM Kekäläinen said he asked about this kid literally every time he called them over the years.

I got the sense Kekäläinen was first in line if he hit the trade block and would have paid more than anyone else. But you're right, that's the type of guy that should be on the Wings radar. Someone stuck on the 3rd line that's due for an RFA deal that shows more potential on a bridge contract.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Says you.
I didn't have Lafreniere at #1 going into the draft so the stats-based reality check isn't hard to deal with.

It isn't a stats-based reality check. That's what I'm saying. Lafreniere was a fabulous prospect. Yeah, maybe Auston Matthews and/or Dahlin had more pomp... but Lafreniere was #1OA for pretty much the entire f***in league for a reason.

I'm saying that you can't look at 13 games and take anything from that that means a f***ing thing. Or do you think Bobby Ryan was going to score 50 goals this year after that first week? Price >>>> Allen.

I'm just telling you that anyone who actually works with statistics (like my sister going back for her masters to get in medical journals as the statistical significance tester) would tell you exactly what I'm saying. There is way too much noise in a tiny amount of data to draw any definitive conclusion. MacKinnon looked like he was gonna be a 50-60 point, meh C. Then in two years, he became the damn best player in the league.

This isn't an evidenciary based take. It's a hot take for which you're using bad statistics as proof.

 

[Bench]

I'm just telling you that anyone who actually works with statistics (like my sister going back for her masters to get in medical journals as the statistical significance tester) would tell you exactly what I'm saying. There is way too much noise in a tiny amount of data to draw any definitive conclusion.

This times a billion.

Sports stats are often terrible. Seeing big stat dumps without any reference to statistical significance is a trigger of mine. I'm surprised we don't see this kind of earnest analysis more, as stats dudes getting into "moneyballing" sports is commonplace now. Although perhaps the guys that do that kind of work aren't giving it away for free.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

This times a billion.

Sports stats are often terrible. Seeing big stat dumps without any reference to statistical significance is a trigger of mine. I'm surprised we don't see this kind of earnest analysis more, as stats dudes getting into "moneyballing" sports is commonplace now. Although perhaps the guys that do that kind of work aren't giving it away for free.

That is pretty much it. Guys who are actually fantastic at it? They work for teams and they get f***in paiiiiiid. Or, they get jobs with the government or the companies like Amazon or Walmart and get super duper double ultra extra f***ing super paid.

Reporters, announcers, etc. know that the stats are important and look for connections, however specious they may be.

I mean, just now in the 2010s did they start really focusing on OPS and/or mention a single thing about WAR in baseball (WAR is a little different because you have it calculated differently by different people). You used to have wins for a pitcher, RBIs for a batter, and other wonky statistical measures as what “meant something”. Now, you have Felix Hernandez winning the Cy Young with a 13-12 record because his underlying stats were amazing.

 

[Ricelund]

Man, I took a look at CBJ’s first-round picks today.

From 2000-2016:

• Klesla (#4 OA) - solid stay-at-home defenseman who played almost 700 NHL games
• Leclaire (#8) - 173 career games
• Nash (#1) - star (though never topped 79 points), ultimately traded for for Dubinsky, Anisimov, and Tim Erixon
• Zherdev (#4) - four years with CBJ (two of them decent) before being traded to NYR for Tyutin and Christian Backman
• Picard (#8) - 67 games over five seasons, 0 goals + 2 assists
• Brule (#6) - three years with CBJ, total bust, traded to EDM for Raffi Torres
• Brassard (#6) - decent journeyman 2C, traded to NYR for Gaborik
• Voracek (#7) - traded along with a 1st and 3rd for Jeff Carter, who later turned into Jack Johnson and Marko Dano
• Filatov (#6) - total bust, traded to Ottawa for a 3rd rounder
• John Moore (#21) - three seasons with CBJ, traded with others to NYR for Gaborik
• Johansen (#4) - traded for Seth Jones
• Ryan Murray (#2) - decent, injury-prone defenseman, traded to NJD for a 5th round pick
• Wennberg (#14) - bought out after 6 seasons
• Rychel (#19) - out of the NHL
• Dano (#27) - scrub - bounced around the league a bit and is now back with CBJ
• Milano (#16) - scrub - 116 games with CBJ over five years, now in Anaheim
• Werenski (#8) - star
• Carlsson (#29) - 24 years old, 23 NHL games over four years
• Dubois (#3) - traded for Laine and Roslovic. Will Laine stick around?

So over 16 years, they netted Klesla, Nash (Dubinsky), Jones, Werenski, Laine, and Roslovic with 19 first-round picks (13 of those in the top 10, six in the top five).

Insane!

Updated the above post with the PLD trade.

 

[Bench]

Updated the above post with the PLD trade.

Overall a well-run organization that has had competitive teams but if they hit those first rounders they could be one of the powerhouses.

Surprising they don't trade more 1st rounders away for proven assets at this point, ha.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Overall a well-run organization that has had competitive teams but if they hit those first rounders they could be one of the powerhouses.

Surprising they don't trade more 1st rounders away for proven assets at this point, ha.

2nd rounders at the least. Without crunching the hard numbers it appears that only 1 in every 3 2nd rounders over the last 10 years has become an NHL regular. Very few as anything better than 3rd/4th liners or 5th/6th defensemen.

You could make an argument that if we (or a team in a similar situation to us) dealt some of their plethora of 2nds we could fill out our defense and middle 6 with quality players when you look at the TDL value of those picks.

 

[MBH]

I don't know if it is relevant but I want to point out that Kakko has only 3 points in 13 games. Maybe I'll try watching some Ranger games but he and Lafreniere are two highly thought of kids who really aren't living up to expectations. Maybe it wouldn't have hurt to have these kids playing in a lower league somewhere still... .

Rangers fans say Kakko is playing great hockey the last few games.
They say Lafreniere seems to be getting discouraged.

 

[MBH]

It isn't a stats-based reality check. That's what I'm saying. Lafreniere was a fabulous prospect. Yeah, maybe Auston Matthews and/or Dahlin had more pomp... but Lafreniere was #1OA for pretty much the entire f***in league for a reason.

I'm saying that you can't look at 13 games and take anything from that that means a f***ing thing. Or do you think Bobby Ryan was going to score 50 goals this year after that first week? Price >>>> Allen.

I'm just telling you that anyone who actually works with statistics (like my sister going back for her masters to get in medical journals as the statistical significance tester) would tell you exactly what I'm saying. There is way too much noise in a tiny amount of data to draw any definitive conclusion. MacKinnon looked like he was gonna be a 50-60 point, meh C. Then in two years, he became the damn best player in the league.

This isn't an evidenciary based take. It's a hot take for which you're using bad statistics as proof.

You know your wrong and you keep doubling down with more and more words to hide your bullshit.

I said based on what I've seen of Veleno's tough transition, I wonder if maybe we're expecting too much from Lafreniere.
People were talking about him like he was READY-MADE and going to be a stud/top 6 winger on Day 1.

FACT: He's not a good top 6 winger at the moment.
Just like Veleno, he's struggled more than expected with the transition.

As for the idea that Lafreniere was the best prospect since McDavid.
Where's your evidence?
I'd say that Auston Matthews clowns all over that hot take.
(Patrick Laine at #2 clowns all over that take, too). Rasmus Dahlin probably clowns all over that take. Andrei Svechnikov too.
Where's the evidence that Lafreniere was a better prospect than Kakko and Hughes?

Let's just stick with the low-hanging fruit.
Auston Matthews scored 4 goals in his first NHL game.
Not sure if Lafreniere will get there by the end of the year, to be honest.
Auston Matthews scored 40 goals as a rookie.
Definitely don't see Lafreniere doing that.
Auston Matthews is a center who was won higher than 50 percent of his faceoffs four straight years and received Selke votes last year.
Auston Matthews scored 47 goals in 70 games last year and now has 13 goals in 15 games this year.

But yes. Obviously Lafreniere was a better prospect than Auston Matthews.

What the f***?
Based on what?
I'd love to know. Especially since you hate stats.
You must have had pretty important feelings about Lafreniere.

 

[RayMoonDoh]

You know your wrong and you keep doubling down with more and more words to hide your bullshit.

Real ones know

 

[Bench]

Real ones know

 

[TCNorthstars]

You know your wrong and you keep doubling down with more and more words to hide your bullshit.

I said based on what I've seen of Veleno's tough transition, I wonder if maybe we're expecting too much from Lafreniere.
People were talking about him like he was READY-MADE and going to be a stud/top 6 winger on Day 1.

FACT: He's not a good top 6 winger at the moment.
Just like Veleno, he's struggled more than expected with the transition.

As for the idea that Lafreniere was the best prospect since McDavid.
Where's your evidence?
I'd say that Auston Matthews clowns all over that hot take.
(Patrick Laine at #2 clowns all over that take, too). Rasmus Dahlin probably clowns all over that take. Andrei Svechnikov too.
Where's the evidence that Lafreniere was a better prospect than Kakko and Hughes?

Let's just stick with the low-hanging fruit.
Auston Matthews scored 4 goals in his first NHL game.
Not sure if Lafreniere will get there by the end of the year, to be honest.
Auston Matthews scored 40 goals as a rookie.
Definitely don't see Lafreniere doing that.
Auston Matthews is a center who was won higher than 50 percent of his faceoffs four straight years and received Selke votes last year.
Auston Matthews scored 47 goals in 70 games last year and now has 13 goals in 15 games this year.

But yes. Obviously Lafreniere was a better prospect than Auston Matthews.

What the f***?
Based on what?
I'd love to know. Especially since you hate stats.
You must have had pretty important feelings about Lafreniere.

Maybe they were talking about when they were drafted? Matthews still takes the cake either way.