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Can't imagine this is a very common occurrence. Look at streaks.
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kylbaz said:
Can't imagine this is a very common occurrence. Look at streaks.
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Hopefully this goes to show some posters how insane it is to expect every line from your team to dominate their matchups game in and game out for 82 games

This season has been such a treat to watch. We've lost some we should have won, and won some we should have lost.. but we've also won a bunch that we should have won.

The amount of negativity and "well, yeah BUT" when we win is astounding
 
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Buffdog said:
This season has been such a treat to watch. We've lost some we should have won, and won some we should have lost.. but we've also won a bunch that we should have won.
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If it wasn't for variance, think of how many things would be boring AF. Bet $100 in blackjack, get two blank cards, dealer gets two blank cards, they take your $100 and give you $99.40 back. Dull, right? Same in sports. Upsets would never happen. The race doesn't always go to the swift, nor the fight to the strong, even if you should bet it that way.

But the longer the sample size gets, the more that variance shrinks relative to expectation, and the more convincing it becomes to argue that the Winnipeg Jets are a very good team and a legitimate contender for the Stanley Cup.

For me, for any competitor(s) in any sport, the favorite / dark-horse cutoff is a simple question -- if they won the championship, would you ask yourself ".. whoah, how the hell did THAT happen?"

If the Jets win, I'd certainly not ask myself that question. I don't even think the Sportsleaf Network nor the Toronto Sports Network would ask themselves that either.
 
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Lol Skinner with 2 GA in 6 shots against. SPEAKING OF VARIANCE, imagine that, seems that Skinner didn't suddenly undergo some metamorphosis into the greatest goalie in NHL history after all, and that maybe, just maybe, a middling goaltender got very lucky for a while. Who knew?

bustamente said:
Oilers should lose just for wearing those pants
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Oilers should lose just for being the Oilers.
 
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AlphaLackey said:
If it wasn't for variance, think of how many things would be boring AF. Bet $100 in blackjack, get two blank cards, dealer gets two blank cards, they take your $100 and give you $99.40 back. Dull, right? Same in sports. Upsets would never happen. The race doesn't always go to the swift, nor the fight to the strong, even if you should bet it that way.

But the longer the sample size gets, the more that variance shrinks relative to expectation, and the more convincing it becomes to argue that the Winnipeg Jets are a very good team and a legitimate contender for the Stanley Cup.

For me, for any competitor(s) in any sport, the favorite / dark-horse cutoff is a simple question -- if they won the championship, would you ask yourself ".. whoah, how the hell did THAT happen?"

If the Jets win, I'd certainly not ask myself that question. I don't even think the Sportsleaf Network nor the Toronto Sports Network would ask themselves that either.
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As a non-gambler, I appreciate your takes

The most rewarding things in life are on the far side of taking a risk... asking that girl out, falling in love, moving to that city where you know nobody, etc.

To that point... would it even be fun to watch a team where every line dominated their matchups and every game was a 9-0 shut out?
 
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Buffdog said:
Hopefully this goes to show some posters how insane it is to expect every line from your team to dominate their matchups game in and game out for 82 games

This season has been such a treat to watch. We've lost some we should have won, and won some we should have lost.. but we've also won a bunch that we should have won.

The amount of negativity and "well, yeah BUT" when we win is astounding
Click to expand...
We were led to believe that the Jets were a wagon. Not just the big winning streak in December, but how they were winning. Dominant. Controlling the play. Lockdown defense. Ice tilting 4 lines.

Now we look like we're losing but we're winning again (to reverse paraphrase Gordon Lightfoot).
 
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Gm0ney said:
We were led to believe that the Jets were a wagon. Not just the big winning streak in December, but how they were winning. Dominant. Controlling the play. Lockdown defense. Ice tilting 4 lines.

Now we look like we're losing but we're winning again (to reverse paraphrase Gordon Lightfoot).
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Is that a Sundown reference?

My rule of thumb for this team is that they're never really as good as they appear to be when they're smashing everyone, and never really bad as they appear to be when they're on a losing skid. The truth is somewhere in the middle

But I still think that they are capable of making a deep run I the playoffs and if the stars align, maybe they could win it all
 
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Buffdog said:
As a non-gambler, I appreciate your takes

The most rewarding things in life are on the far side of taking a risk... asking that girl out, falling in love, moving to that city where you know nobody, etc.

To that point... would it even be fun to watch a team where every line dominated their matchups and every game was a 9-0 shut out?
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Even outside the cut-and-dried terms of a gamble over a deck of cards or a pair of dice, life has plenty of moments like you described -- where you have to use the best information you have, trust your instincts, and take that shot one way or another. And while I'm no real-life superstar, I've got some Ws and some Ls, just as we all have. And part of the thrill of life is precisely because of that variance.

And yes, God would sports be insufferable if it went down like that. And yes, gambling would be too. A classic Twilight Zone episode featured a gambler who died and woke up in an afterlife casino and the first day he won at EVERYTHING, and got the VIP treatment and assumed he went to Heaven.. but when it happened each and every day the exact same way, and the chase was gone, and his passion turned into drearyroutine; only then did he realize he was actually in Hell.

Gm0ney said:
We were led to believe that the Jets were a wagon. Not just the big winning streak in December, but how they were winning. Dominant. Controlling the play. Lockdown defense. Ice tilting 4 lines.

Now we look like we're losing but we're winning again (to reverse paraphrase Gordon Lightfoot).
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Yeah, I think it's important to remember that even if our gameplan was the exact same then as now, during our hot streak, the things we were trying to do to implement our plan were working in our favor more often than not. And now we're not getting the breaks as often. But I still see Kyle Connor backchecking and Stanley trying to play to the best of his ability (horrible penalty notwithstanding) and now our Power Play, which honestly probably hasn't changed that much, is now ringing it up.

But at the end of it all, in the mid 50-game mark? We're still the #1 defence in the league. That's gotta be worth something, right?
 
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Buffdog said:
Is that a Sundown reference?

My rule of thumb for this team is that they're never really as good as they appear to be when they're smashing everyone, and never really bad as they appear to be when they're on a losing skid. The truth is somewhere in the middle.

But I still think that they are capable of making a deep run I the playoffs and if the stars align, maybe they could win it all
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Your middle paragraph is correct not just for our team but for every team. "When I win, it's skill; when I lose, it's bad luck" is a mental deathtrap I've seen countless otherwise promising poker players fall into, and I honestly think it applies in pro sports too. It's why focusing on "the process" and "the inputs" is so important.
 
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puck stoppa said:
Whey he say?
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Much like Nick Cousins getting seasoned by Mantha tonight, ideas like “shut up MacLean and retire” are wise in and of themselves :)

lol “Skinner keeping his team in it”. Like does Harnarayan know that my “you might get five past him, but he’ll never let you have the sixth and keeps his team in it” post vs. minny was, like, me making fun of exactly this?
 
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