Around the NHL — Episode XLXVI

[Burrowsaurus]

Wierd by the sharks. Emberson is better than Ceci

 

[Micklebot]

Wierd by the sharks. Emberson is better than Ceci

Can't say I really watched him enough to know one way or another, but with ~30 career games at 24 I'm not sure I'd have enough of a track record to be comfortable making that call even if I had watched more.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1825377635645653365

What will the Oilers do?

The money which is an obvious factor wrt the cap space and player value is one thing.. the compensation is another.
In both cases the compensation (2nd for Broberg and 3rd for Holloway) is pretty unappealing.

If they match they keep their prospects with some promise and over pay them and hope they get to another level. If they don't they get peanuts for two very good young players.

Interesting the Oilers acquire Podkolzin (1m AAV) in the midst of all of this.

Oilers used the 4th from Ottawa this summer to get Podkolzin. If I am Ottawa I would have taken that trade. They traded 21-year-old Finnish forward Roby Järventie and a fourth-round draft pick in 2025 for forwards Xavier Bourgault and Jake Chiasson

 

[bert]

Wierd by the sharks. Emberson is better than Ceci

Definition of an HF boards response..

Oh yeah, youve watched him alot?.... 30 NHL games and was picked up on waivers last year. Ceci is a veteran player almost 800 regular season games and 88 playoff games and is considered to be a great teammate. Popular everywhere he goes, he's a player that can play real quality minutes. Plus they added a 3rd to go with him. It was an NHL contract to go back the other way.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1825377635645653365

What will the Oilers do?

The money which is an obvious factor wrt the cap space and player value is one thing.. the compensation is another.
In both cases the compensation (2nd for Broberg and 3rd for Holloway) is pretty unappealing.

If they match they keep their prospects with some promise and over pay them and hope they get to another level. If they don't they get peanuts for two very good young players.

Interesting the Oilers acquire Podkolzin (1m AAV) in the midst of all of this.

Oilers used the 4th from Ottawa this summer to get Podkolzin. If I am Ottawa I would have taken that trade. They traded 21-year-old Finnish forward Roby Järventie and a fourth-round draft pick in 2025 for forwards Xavier Bourgault and Jake Chiasson

When Kane gets back this could be an opportunity for the sens. They should have plenty of room as Norris will likely be on the LTIR. I am not saying to take Kane but maybe someone else so the Oilers are cap compliant.

 

[Micklebot]

When Kane gets back this could be an opportunity for the sens. They should have plenty of room as Norris will likely be on the LTIR. I am not saying to take Kane but maybe someone else so the Oilers are cap compliant.

Is this based on anything or just a hunch, because all the feedback we've gotten lately has been promising, I think both Tkachuk and Batherson made comments along the lines of him seeming to be doing better than last year (or at least that's how some fans interpreted the comments?), and Staios said things were progressing well about a month or two ago.

 

[bert]

Is this based on anything or just a hunch, because all the feedback we've gotten lately has been promising, I think both Tkachuk and Batherson made comments along the lines of him seeming to be doing better than last year (or at least that's how some fans interpreted the comments?), and Staios said things were progressing well about a month or two ago.

It's understanding the severity of the injuries. There's a reason he is untradeable. I actually think LTIR is the best case scenario for Ottawa as he won't ever be the same or close to an 8 million dollar player unfortunately.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Unless Edmonton is pulling a Mark Stone with Kane on LTIR until playoffs, I don't think they match both.

If they don't match Holloway, St.Louis basically gave up two 3rds for Holloway and a 5th, since they had to make the Pittsburgh trade to enable the double order sheet scheme.

 

[Xspyrit]

Bad GMs will always screw over their teams regardless of Offer Sheets.

I doubt any offer sheet for Pinto would have been successful.

Aho signed but Montreal failed to get him.

The point is imagine if OS would have been an ADDITIONAL way for Dorion to get screwed over?

And why a Pinto OS wouldn't have been successful? We haven't had any cap space recently. If somebody offered Pinto 6.0 AAV for 8 years, he would have signed it for sure. What would we have done?

Yup.... They'll likely flip him at the deadline for a 2nd or a 3rd. Two assets to take him for 60 games. These are the things Dorion never did when they were rebuilding. Insteadd he was giving assets for cap dumps. Now here we are, 31st in prospect depth having missed the playoffs for 7 straight seasons. It's kinda mind boggling. He has to be there as a bottom 5 NHL GM all time.

He is the worst GM of all time. I started a comparison with Mike Milbury a few months ago but I stopped as it was a futile exercise, it was not even close.

 

[Xspyrit]

If I'm the Oilers, sign Broberg and Holloway and just go into the season like this. Kane will be the first on LTIR, then it will be someone else, there's always someone injured. If everyone is healthy, make a trade. Of course, continue to evaluate all the options in the meantime.

Unless Edmonton is pulling a Mark Stone with Kane on LTIR until playoffs, I don't think they match both.

If they don't match Holloway, St.Louis basically gave up two 3rds for Holloway and a 5th, since they had to make the Pittsburgh trade to enable the double order sheet scheme.

Are you saying Stone injuries have been "fake"? Because in the world today, have to ask all the questions

We were pretty close to the cap last season too and we "conveniently" always had someone on LTIR until the trade deadline... Are we part of the conspiracy?

 

[Ouroboros]

The point is imagine if OS would have been an ADDITIONAL way for Dorion to get screwed over?

And why a Pinto OS wouldn't have been successful? We haven't had any cap space recently. If somebody offered Pinto 6.0 AAV for 8 years, he would have signed it for sure. What would we have done?

Take the two 1sts, 2nd and a 3rd in compensation. That's easy.

 

[Xspyrit]

Take the two 1sts, 2nd and a 3rd in compensation. That's easy.

Hmmm, I don't know!

It's a 1st + 3rd below $6,871,374 but not sure if I'd very happy with a possible late first for a 22 y/o like Pinto just getting started...

 

[Golden_Jet]

Take the two 1sts, 2nd and a 3rd in compensation. That's easy.

Compensation would be one first and one third for 6 million.

 

[Ouroboros]

Hmmm, I don't know!

It's a 1st + 3rd below $6,871,374 but not sure if I'd very happy with a possible late first for a 22 y/o like Pinto just getting started...

Compensation would be one first and one third for 6 million.

Offer sheet AAV for compensation purposes is always calculated over the lesser of the term of the contract OR 5 years.

So in this case the 48M is divided over 5 years for a 9.6M compensation AAV, so it's two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd. Trivial decision to take the picks.

 

[Xspyrit]

Offer sheet AAV for compensation purposes is always calculated over the lesser of the term of the contract OR 5 years.

So in this case the 48M is divided over 5 years for a 9.6M compensation AAV, so it's two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd. Trivial decision to take the picks.

ok change the 8 years for 4 years then! For discussion's sake

Maybe Dorion signed Colin White to a $28 500 000 contract to not have him being exposed to an offer sheet!

 

[Micklebot]

Hmmm, I don't know!

It's a 1st + 3rd below $6,871,374 but not sure if I'd very happy with a possible late first for a 22 y/o like Pinto just getting started...

Compensation would be one first and one third for 6 million.

The formula changes when you go over 5 years, Ill see if I can find the details (nevermind, Ouroboros got it)

 

[OD99]

It's understanding the severity of the injuries. There's a reason he is untradeable. I actually think LTIR is the best case scenario for Ottawa as he won't ever be the same or close to an 8 million dollar player unfortunately.

I know you believe it, but I can't talk in absolutes like this, until I see him get back.

If the shoulder is better to the point he can train properly and gain strength/mobility, then I can see him coming back into form.

His skating has always been underrated IMO so even if he loses a bit off his fastball, he can still be a very effective player. He also scored from a lot of places, not just off one timers from the dot. He is a natural sniper, the puck finds him.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Offer sheet AAV for compensation purposes is always calculated over the lesser of the term of the contract OR 5 years.

So in this case the 48M is divided over 5 years for a 9.6M compensation AAV, so it's two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd. Trivial decision to take the picks.

Forgot about the 5 year part.

 

[bicboi64]

Offer sheets or not, the salary cap is the cap. There's a hard limit to what players can be paid. Tossing around more offer sheets won't change that.

Not exactly true.

Teams are not always at the cap. St. Louis has plenty of capspace and with their OS are able to overpay for young talent. Offer sheets materially allow for younger players that might not get paid as much to get paid.

Im pretty pro player too, but as a Sens fan I side with the club in that there needs to be more measures for teams to retain their talent.

Could that be limiting free agency contracts to 6 years vs the team that drafted/hold rights get to sign said player for 8?

A cap credit on a max set of players that were drafted by the team? Ottawa gets 800k (10%) cap credit on Stutzle and 800K on Tkachuk. for a total relief of 1.6M or only have credit apply when players are playing for this team in their UFA years.

Still likely wont be enough to stop a guy from looking at more attractive destinations like Florida but it gives the sens a fighting chance.

I'd be open to some more rules around OS deals and future extensions for them.

 

[bicboi64]

Perry and Brown are close to league minimum so no big deal, they can be buried without any cap consequences. Arvidsson and Skinner are good to have at 7M$ IMO but these OS put them in cap hell, the 2 young guys would have been much much cheaper on a bridge (which should have been done earlier)

I understand your position as a hockey fan but as a Sens fan, if OS were more a common thing, I can assure you we would have been screwed someway somehow with a GM like Pierre Dorion for 7 years. We dodged a disaster.

We dodged a disaster, but I want management to prioritize signing our young guys before the vet guys. Especially since we aren't even playoff regulars yet. If the 2 younger Oil players were signed before, the Oil aren't in their current predicament.

It's time teams managements (including ours with Staios) have to face consequences for prioritizing certain types of players when constructing the roster.

Screw Vancouver and SJS.

Vancouver for giving EDM a former first rounder that might light it up because he might play with McDavid and SJS for letting the Oil get out of the Ceci contract for only a 3rd. The Oil are in your division, don't make it easy for them

 

[Ouroboros]

ok change the 8 years for 4 years then! For discussion's sake

Maybe Dorion signed Colin White to a $28 500 000 contract to not have him being exposed to an offer sheet!

I think the whole premise is unrealistic. You can't pay a nearly 24-year old forward that hasn't eclipsed 35 points 6M per year.

But if it were to happen, you'd have to take the picks.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Some speculation (pure speculation, not rumor) on the Oilers forum that Holloway could be matched and put on waivers as part of the compensation to the Sharks for taking Ceci since they're first waiver dibs. Then match Broberg too, but to actually keep him. Keeps both out of the Blues' hands which may be the priority. Makes some sense to me but would essentially mean Ceci + Holloway + 2x3rds for Emberson which seems too costly just to spite the Blues.

 

[Xspyrit]

I think the whole premise is unrealistic. You can't pay a nearly 24-year old forward that hasn't eclipsed 35 points 6M per year.

But if it were to happen, you'd have to take the picks.

Unrealistic? I was not expecting this reply...

Colin White had a 41 pts career-high and got 4.75 AAV in 2019, without it being a offer sheet.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi got 6.1 AAV from an offer sheet after scoring 20 pts in 56 games (his career high was 34 pts)

The 6.0 AAV example was just to say that the team stealing Pinto would make sure Ottawa would struggle to match the offer sheet. Of course, in this scenario, it would be assumed that this team would be HIGH on Pinto.

Also, if you followed the example correctly, the OS would have been last year before Pinto turned 23 y/o

We dodged a disaster, but I want management to prioritize signing our young guys before the vet guys. Especially since we aren't even playoff regulars yet. If the 2 younger Oil players were signed before, the Oil aren't in their current predicament.

It's time teams managements (including ours with Staios) have to face consequences for prioritizing certain types of players when constructing the roster.

Screw Vancouver and SJS.

Vancouver for giving EDM a former first rounder that might light it up because he might play with McDavid and SJS for letting the Oil get out of the Ceci contract for only a 3rd. The Oil are in your division, don't make it easy for them

I don't follow things close enough to know but isn't this situation (Broberg/Holloway not signed) happening because the Oilers changed their GM? In a normal situation, the 2 RFAs would probably have been signed already but maybe the Blues are even more dirty for doing this during this transition for the Oilers?

 

[Cosmix]

I didn’t think offer sheets were ever really meant to be used frequently. The point was to give players some leverage when they are RFA’s and in tough negotiations with a team trying to nickel and dime them. It should encourage teams to pay players fairly when they have little leverage. Less hardball. Less rfa holdouts. Less separation from UFA salaries which don’t appear to be increasing as fast as RFA ones. I remember Holik at $9.5m while Havlat was $1.6 and Hossa $2.6 pre cap.



The RFA compensation schedule also sets trade values. Usually you will never get a better offer for a player than the what the RFA compensation schedule dictates.



An offer sheet should only be made if you think you have a good chance at succeeding with it, not just to interfere in another teams negotiations. They are supposed to be hard to make and rare. Especially for top players. I don’t believe that GM’s feels the same sense of stigma over making them though as many fans seem to feel.

I think one of the major reasons for the Offer Sheet mechanism was to provide players with the ability to change teams if they were offered higher compensation by another team than their current team was offering. That was because the NHL could be subject to USA antitrust laws (Sherman Act) including restraint of trade if the NHLPA were to challenge the league. The NHLPA have accepted the current system but that could change when the CBA agreement comes up for renewal.

 

[Cosmix]

Yup, it's all a choice. Most cases money wins. Some outliers too. That's fine and I'd probably be doing the same in their position. It's just kind of a weird thing to me sometimes. These guys are raised to be so competitive, sometimes talk publicly about it and yet so often they give up a chance to win it all or be on a competitive team to make bank earlier, but as you point out, there's also the chance it never comes again and it is a business from the owner/management side just the same. I see the temptation, just unfortunate to see two budding stars go to a non competitive team that were played key roles on a contender last year.

As you say, Broberg makes the most sense to let walk. It's obviously an inflated amount in an attempt to get him, but the Oilers are in a tough spot giving such an unproven player so much.

Holloway is a slam dunk imo. It's more than they wanted to pay him, but it's not that much for a guy they drafted and developed. He may end up in heavy competition, but after what I saw last year, he'll play his way into the conversation. He was one of Knoblauch's most trusted players and he was a fresh faced rookie.

And mostly I'm just bummed for the Oilers. I like them. They've been my bandwagon team the last 5 or so years while the Senators stunk and were owned by a crook. I'll be cheering them on again next year, but this does hurt their chances. It's a bit of a mess now after a real tidy offseason and it's going to be interesting to see what they do. I still think they match both and make other moves to make room, but they are limited in options there, so maybe not.


Interesting thought. I guess it doesn't matter either way, the play is essentially from the Blues and has apparently been in the works for some time. Seems like they mostly just wanted to make a mess of the Oilers cap, but maybe they think they'll get Broberg out of it.

I think the Blues primary motivation was to add some very good young talent to their team. The manner they have done it increases their probability of success.

 

[Cosmix]

I think Offer Sheets are great, there are tools available and they should be used.

They are great for the player involved and for NHLPA players in general. From a fan perspective, they can be a blessing or a curse, depending on whether your team is gaining or losing a player.