Around the League Thread part V

[lumbergh]

This seems like too much too soon for a two-year pro.

Ottawa GM negotiating against himself. Wacky.

 

[Herby]

Ottawa GM negotiating against himself. Wacky.

The Kings and Hawks did the same thing with their guys a dozen years ago and won multiple championships after the signings.

Ottawa has their three best players all signed long-term, not a single one of them is Canadian, and two of them are Americans. That part can't be overlooked, it's not super easy to keep American players in Canadian markets, ask Calgary.

They can also use it to try and convince DeBrincat to re-sign, we have all these other guys that are pretty close to your age range signed for the long-term.

 

[YP44]

The Kings and Hawks did the same thing with their guys a dozen years ago and won multiple championships after the signings.

Ottawa has their three best players all signed long-term, not a single one of them is Canadian, and two of them are Americans. That part can't be overlooked, it's not super easy to keep American players in Canadian markets, ask Calgary.

They can also use it to try and convince DeBrincat to re-sign, we have all these other guys that are pretty close to your age range signed for the long-term.

I don't see anything similar to LA'\s contract vs what Ottawa has done.

 

[Sol]

I don’t like the signing. Too soon for that contract. But they obviously really see something to shell it out.

 

[Herby]

I don't see anything similar to LA'\s contract vs what Ottawa has done.

Bypassed potential bridge contracts to commit long-term big money deals to their best young players through their prime years coming off ELC's?

As the cap went up Kopitar and Doughty's contracts both aged very well, that will likely be the case here.

Steutzle was a point per game player over his final 30 games after switching to center (in his age 19 season) and Norris scored at a 45 goal pace in his age 22 season. Now they have those guys and Tkachuk locked up long-term.

Seems pretty similar to what the Kings did.

 

[YP44]

Bypassed potential bridge contracts to commit long-term big money deals to their best young players through their prime years coming off ELC's?

As the cap went up Kopitar and Doughty's contracts both aged very well, that will likely be the case here.

Steutzle was a point per game player over his final 30 games after switching to center (in his age 20 season) and Norris scored at a 45 goal pace in his age 22 season. Now they have those guys and Tkachuk locked up long-term.

Seems pretty similar to what the Kings did.

It felt like Kopitar and Drew had proved more after their ELC. Drew was a legit #1 D his second year in the league. Kopitar was over 60 points each of his first two years (over 70 year 2) when that deal was signed.

Kopitar on paper i think you are right is pretty similar. 11.99% of cap for kopi vs $10.89% ($1mil cap increase) for Stu, 7 years for Kopitar vs 8 for Stu. Just feels like Ottawa is paying players to stay in Ottawa as that has been an issue. Not saying that is the wrong tactic, just feels different to me, but after looking at the number I would agree with you it is similar to Kopitar's.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It's not just STutzle either, Ottawa is all in on their guys, for better or worse. But who cares, that's the next GMs issue anyway.

Bypassed potential bridge contracts to commit long-term big money deals to their best young players through their prime years coming off ELC's?

As the cap went up Kopitar and Doughty's contracts both aged very well, that will likely be the case here.

Steutzle was a point per game player over his final 30 games after switching to center (in his age 20 season) and Norris scored at a 45 goal pace in his age 22 season. Now they have those guys and Tkachuk locked up long-term.

Seems pretty similar to what the Kings did.

I do remember a lot of holy-shitting over DOughty's 7 million

 

[Schrute farms]

Just feels like Ottawa is paying players to stay in Ottawa as that has been an issue.

Exactly what it appears to be -- Ottawa has been trash for a while and see what happened to Calgary with their young stars. They can at least show fans and prospective players that they are committed and have a LT plan. It may ultimately blow up in their face. But the alternative is simply being Ottawa and that's been a mess. I applaud them for at least trying something new/different.

 

[Sol]

Come to think of it, with the cap going up, and Ottawas cap situation, I don’t think it’s a bad contract. Stutzle has been improving consistently and I do think he will only get better. A lot of the contract is hope based which I tend to hate, but this is a safer bet.

On an interesting note, I do think it’s surprising how comfortable people were with Petersens contract when he had proven very little with the team, but Kovalchuk who was a proven sniper in his career being signed for 3 years for 6 million was somehow terrible. Kings needed a proven sniper and he was just that his entire career. People still act like that was bad contract when it was more than reasonable.

 

[Herby]

It's not just STutzle either, Ottawa is all in on their guys, for better or worse. But who cares, that's the next GMs issue anyway.




I do remember a lot of holy-shitting over DOughty's 7 million

Because it was kind of the norm at the time to give out bridge contracts. So much so that in a go for it year DL didn’t get DD signed before the European opener. But DL was ultimately proven wrong about these contracts

But it worked out gloriously for LA and I think it will for Ottawa as well. What is the worst case scenario, I guess it’s that one of those 3 gets injured?

It’s very unlikely that any of these guys fall off. TS has progressed and gotten better across two seasons, what is more likely he becomes an 80-100 point player or a 50-70 point player next season?

Norris has the shot, which isn’t going anywhere, he is going to score a ton of goals in the league over the life of the contract.

Maybe Tkachuk with his style, but he only has 6 more years and they can then walk away and not get into the Mike Richards/Adam Deadmarsh territory. If Tkachuk had signed a bridge it would be expiring in 2-3 years and you have a likely contender needing to make a tough decision on whether to give their captain an 8 year deal for more than he makes now that takes him into his 30’s.

That last part is what people really miss, none of these deals go beyond the players prime years. It’s not 27-30 year old contracts that crush you, it’s the 32-35 ones.

I personally love what Ottawa has done. I think this has been a textbook rebuild and they have the makings of a very strong team for the foreseeable future.

 

[Fishhead]

Not sure why the Sens would shell out that much when they have leverage. The worst that could happen is Stutzle goes nuts and it costs them a bit more, but not that much more. I don’t see him falling off a cliff, but I would like to see at least two solid full seasons from any player before a huge contract. It’s more than Svechnikov who is a better player of a similar age. Same thing with Jack Hughes.

But hey, it’s not my money. I do like that he’s going to be just past his prime when it’s over, I personally would have went to the mid-7’s. It’s not a terrible contract, but when that window opens that extra chunk of cap cash can come in handy.

 

[Statto]

It’s a good gamble as they won’t spend to the cap (not for las sustained period anyway). As soon as they ‘peak‘ with any sort of decent push any vets with big contracts and value in the trade market will be moved. Stutzles contract will never be a major problem. At worst he will end up a bit overpaid but most likely it ends up a great deal.

 

[Herby]

Not sure why the Sens would shell out that much when they have leverage. The worst that could happen is Stutzle goes nuts and it costs them a bit more, but not that much more. I don’t see him falling off a cliff, but I would like to see at least two solid full seasons from any player before a huge contract. It’s more than Svechnikov who is a better player of a similar age. Same thing with Jack Hughes.

But hey, it’s not my money. I do like that he’s going to be just past his prime when it’s over, I personally would have went to the mid-7’s. It’s not a terrible contract, but when that window opens that extra chunk of cap cash can come in handy.

Valid takes, but Hughes was way less proven when he signed his extension, compare his first 2 years in the league to Stutzle's.

This is the way it is in the NHL now, just like in baseball its to give young players a boatload of cash to buy UFA years and keep them through their primes. Teams have figured out through running the numbers that this is the optimal strategy.

No way is Stutzle's camp accepting mid 7's, based on his first 2 years in the league he projects as a huge star and is severely undervaluing himself through his prime years if he signs at $7.5. It's extremely likely that even at $8.5 he is very undervalued in like years 3-8.

A player who scores at the pace TS did as a teenager in the NHL almost always turns out to be a star player in his prime, anything less from TS would be very surprising.

 

[Herby]

Here are the players who have scored at a 60 point pace or better as teenagers in the NHL since the last lockout.

Sidney Crosby
Evgeni Malkin
Anze Kopitar
Jonathan Toews
Patrick Kane
Steve Stamkos
John Tavares
Matt Duchene
Taylor Hall
Tyler Seguin
RNH
Nathan MacKinnon
Sean Monahan
Connor McDavid
Jack Eichel
Mitch Marner
Auston Matthews
Patrik Laine
Clayton Keller
Andrei Svechnikov
Tim Stutzle

Certainly a few guys who didn't live up to it, but for the most part it appears he is on a path to being a star player in the league.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Because it was kind of the norm at the time to give out bridge contracts. So much so that in a go for it year DL didn’t get DD signed before the European opener. But DL was ultimately proven wrong about these contracts

But it worked out gloriously for LA and I think it will for Ottawa as well. What is the worst case scenario, I guess it’s that one of those 3 gets injured?

It’s very unlikely that any of these guys fall off. TS has progressed and gotten better across two seasons, what is more likely he becomes an 80-100 point player or a 50-70 point player next season?

Norris has the shot, which isn’t going anywhere, he is going to score a ton of goals in the league over the life of the contract.

Maybe Tkachuk with his style, but he only has 6 more years and they can then walk away and not get into the Mike Richards/Adam Deadmarsh territory. If Tkachuk had signed a bridge it would be expiring in 2-3 years and you have a likely contender needing to make a tough decision on whether to give their captain an 8 year deal for more than he makes now that takes him into his 30’s.

That last part is what people really miss, none of these deals go beyond the players prime years. It’s not 27-30 year old contracts that crush you, it’s the 32-35 ones.

I personally love what Ottawa has done. I think this has been a textbook rebuild and they have the makings of a very strong team for the foreseeable future.

Not sure why the Sens would shell out that much when they have leverage. The worst that could happen is Stutzle goes nuts and it costs them a bit more, but not that much more. I don’t see him falling off a cliff, but I would like to see at least two solid full seasons from any player before a huge contract. It’s more than Svechnikov who is a better player of a similar age. Same thing with Jack Hughes.

But hey, it’s not my money. I do like that he’s going to be just past his prime when it’s over, I personally would have went to the mid-7’s. It’s not a terrible contract, but when that window opens that extra chunk of cap cash can come in handy.

I think both these takes are totally valid.

Personally I think they were negotiating against themselves a little bit and totally overeager, it's like when my homebuyers would shell out 75k over asking when there were no other offers on the table. Like, please don't, but eh.

Ultimately either way those are the guys you pay, 1-2m in either direction isn't going to be what tanks that team unless they totally bust. Like giving Doughty 8m instead of 7? Meh, that wouldn't have been the problem.

 

[Sol]

@Herby Any other sexy bets you’d think would be interesting in regards to the Kings ?

Maybe the likelihood of the Kings being out of the bottom 10 in PP?

 

[DoktorJeep]

Thank god none of the Kings best prospects have cemented their spot in the top six. No cap space available to give one kid $8M, whether he deserves it or not.

I’m sure our strategy to overpay journeymen and hope for all the vets to have career years is bound to payoff.

 

[Herby]

@Herby Any other sexy bets you’d think would be interesting in regards to the Kings ?

Maybe the likelihood of the Kings being out of the bottom 10 in PP?

Are you asking me if I would take your action on the Kings not being a bottom 10 PP?

If that is the case, sure. The Kings PP was awful mostly because of Danault and Iafallo being woefully miscast, and with the addition of Fiala at least one of them is not on the #1 unit this season and with any kind of competence with the new PP coach you replace Danault and Iafallo with Fiala and Kaliyev or VA

Doughty
Kempe
Kopitar
Fiala
Kaliyev/Arvidsson

That is a middle of the road NHL PP. Bottom 10 would be a big surprise.

Thank god none of the Kings best prospects have cemented their spot in the top six. No cap space available to give one kid $8M, whether he deserves it or not.

I’m sure our strategy to overpay journeymen and hope for all the vets to have career years is bound to payoff.

That is why I still think if one of the prospects had hit you don’t have either Fiala or Danault. Probably Danault.

Danault was a wonderful pivot by Blake that paid immediate dividends, but it’s hard to imagine a signing like that was something they planned on doing a year before they did.

 

[Sol]

Are you asking me if I would take your action on the Kings not being a bottom 10 PP?

If that is the case, sure. The Kings PP was awful mostly because of Danault and Iafallo being woefully miscast, and with the addition of Fiala at least one of them is not on the #1 unit this season and with any kind of competence with the new PP coach you replace Danault and Iafallo with Fiala and Kaliyev or VA

Doughty
Kempe
Kopitar
Fiala
Kaliyev/Arvidsson

That is a middle of the road NHL PP. Bottom 10 would be a big surprise.

So you don’t think the strong rumors of Todds strong influence on PP is true?

kings being in 20s in PP is like very high since Kopitar will definitely not see less icetime on PP. Kopitar and Doughty are just old and have been bad at PP in recent history. I haven’t heard anything about Kopitar being in a limited role.

The half wall god and the shin-pad god are going to re-unite for 1:20 on PP every opportunity. I don’t see that being an improvement even though Fiala is a big step up. Kopitar slows down the PP so much and so does Doughty which makes for a very stationary unit as history continues to show. I don’t think it’s a matter of who the Kings add as long as Doughty and Kopitar continue to play catch and waste time

 

[JKG33]

Here are the players who have scored at a 60 point pace or better as teenagers in the NHL since the last lockout.

Sidney Crosby
Evgeni Malkin
Anze Kopitar
Jonathan Toews
Patrick Kane
Steve Stamkos
John Tavares
Matt Duchene
Taylor Hall
Tyler Seguin
RNH
Nathan MacKinnon
Sean Monahan
Connor McDavid
Jack Eichel
Mitch Marner
Auston Matthews
Patrik Laine
Clayton Keller
Andrei Svechnikov
Tim Stutzle

Certainly a few guys who didn't live up to it, but for the most part it appears he is on a path to being a star player in the league.

Other than Monahan who's career was derailed by injuries, thats a pretty impressive group.

This signing is all the more frustrating, as someone who wanted Stutzle with the pick. Especially if we're set for another year of watching Byfield float around in the bottom 6

 

[DoktorJeep]

That is why I still think if one of the prospects had hit you don’t have either Fiala or Danault. Probably Danault.

Danault was a wonderful pivot by Blake that paid immediate dividends, but it’s hard to imagine a signing like that was something they planned on doing a year before they did.

I agree. Vilardi put up a 55 point pace in his first 10 games. If he had done that the next year, Jeff Carter would be here. No room for Danault, because Blake prides himself on over thinking one step ahead and never further.

 

[King'sPawn]

I actually don't see much of an issue with the Stutzle extension. It's quite a commitment, sure, but there are few things to reasonably expect a player of his talent to decline in priduction.

Of course, if he fails to produce, then it's ugly. But any contract with a one-dimensional player will look bad if they don't produce in that one dimension.

 

[Herby]

So you don’t think the strong rumors of Todds strong influence on PP is true?

kings being in 20s in PP is like very high since Kopitar will definitely not see less icetime on PP. Kopitar and Doughty are just old and have been bad at PP in recent history. I haven’t heard anything about Kopitar being in a limited role.

The half wall god and the shin-pad god are going to re-unite for 1:20 on PP every opportunity. I don’t see that being an improvement even though Fiala is a big step up. Kopitar slows down the PP so much and so does Doughty which makes for a very stationary unit as history continues to show. I don’t think it’s a matter of who the Kings add as long as Doughty and Kopitar continue to play catch and waste time

I am of the belief that the Kings PP has been more hamstrung by a total lack of finishers in the Kopi/Doughty era than it has been because of Doughty and Kopi.

You need goal-scorers and the Kings have largely ignored acquiring them over the last fifteen years.

This year the Kopi/Doughty PP duo is finally surrounded by 3-4 finishers in their primes or younger. I think that will improve the PP where it’s at least serviceable.

 

[Sol]

I am of the belief that the Kings PP has been more hamstrung by a total lack of finishers in the Kopi/Doughty era than it has been because of Doughty and Kopi.

You need goal-scorers and the Kings have largely ignored acquiring them over the last fifteen years.

This year the Kopi/Doughty PP duo is finally surrounded by 3-4 finishers in their primes or younger. I think that will improve the PP where it’s at least serviceable.

OOO BABY I totally disagree. I think they're a big reason why the PP has always suffered because of their lack of assertiveness in the PP. Especially Kopitar. So how do you like your chances of the Kings finishing in the 1-19?

 

[Sol]

Other than Monahan who's career was derailed by injuries, thats a pretty impressive group.

This signing is all the more frustrating, as someone who wanted Stutzle with the pick. Especially if we're set for another year of watching Byfield float around in the bottom 6

Stutzle whiff gonna hurt for a decade straight