I think second in the division is more likely than third. Boston has the toughest schedule in the league down the stretch (for whatever that is worth, I guess), but more importantly they are struggling mightily at the moment. The leafs will obviously need to win their two games in hand, but the opportunity to pass Boston is there if they can also take 3 of 4 points from the two games remaining against Boston. In any event, I don't think they will even need home ice advantage to beat Boston in the first round.