Around the League - Offseason Edition

[ToneDog]

Lesser term or higher AAV. And there were additional complications if it happened in-season.

Then you simply take the 4 first round picks and run.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Don’t know how you can name a guy Captain when he always looks like he’s on the verge of bursting into tears but whatever.

 

[Dekes For Days]

This was never confirmed

It was confirmed that he received 2.

Then you simply take the 4 first round picks and run.

That would be a horrible decision, and a team could have done a 10.5m contract for 1-5 years and not paid four 1sts anyway.

 

[ToneDog]

It was confirmed that he received 2.

That would be a horrible decision, and a team could have done a 10.5m contract for 1-5 years and not paid four 1sts anyway.

If it was 10.5m you could have matched. Mitch would never have taken less than 4 years IMO.

 

[Peasy]

It was confirmed that he received 2.

That would be a horrible decision, and a team could have done a 10.5m contract for 1-5 years and not paid four 1sts anyway.

So youre saying Marner would have accepted a lower aav with another team? If thats the case you just match it lmao. Deal with the term/deal him afterwards.

And I dont think there was any chance Marner would rather make an extra ~mill and play 5 years in columbus than playing in Toronto with Matthews. I know the rumour of 13m from Columbus but there was no way in hell Marner was going to take that.

 

[ACC1224]

So youre saying Marner would have accepted a lower aav with another team? If thats the case you just match it lmao. Deal with the term/deal him afterwards.

And I dont think there was any chance Marner would rather make an extra ~mill and play 5 years in columbus than playing in Toronto with Matthews. I know the rumour of 13m from Columbus but there was no way in hell Marner was going to take that.

Nope, wasn't signing anywhere but here. All the noise was put out there to help justify the contract.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Or just add 4 of the preseason games to the regular season and charge even more money.

Or just start the 82 regular game season early and end the playoffs by May long weekend

 

[Stephen]

Or just start the 82 regular game season early and end the playoffs by May long weekend

I don’t think they’ll walk away from 8 games of revenue.

 

[Antropovsky]

I don't disagree that the Matthews (previous) and Marner (current) contracts established some parameters and comparables. Neither player took 8 years or below market value. However who did that impact on our team? Nylander was already signed, Tavares was getting what he was getting, and Rielly seems to have given us term at below market value.

To me it seems that Matthews took a fair number on his recent one too. Yes, some would want more years but I personally like not having to commit to him for 8 more years...and I like Matthews. If this team hasn't won a cup by the time he is 31 I am not sure that I want to commit to him beyond that. Maybe I do, if so I sign him and if it is at a big number it will be because he earned it.

What players have we had difficulty re-signing because of these two contracts? Hyman? Maybe if all of Hyman, Marner and Matthews took $1.5M below what they got then we could have kept him. That doesn't seem reasonable to expect though.

A couple of other points...Marner and Matthews were signed pre-Covid. If the cap had increased by +/- $15M over the past four years we are not considering any of these contracts to be anchors or impediments.

Also, signing bonuses can make a player more attractive in a mid season trade. It makes the real cash component much less and that has some value.

Marner, who led the Maple Leafs in points for a second straight season last year, will carry an average annual cap hit of $10.893 million on his new contract, the third-highest cap hit on the team. Ferris told First Up that Marner looked to Maple Leafs centres Auston Matthews and John Tavares as comparable contracts while he negotiated, rather than comparing himself to players around the league.

"Absolutely. That is one of the factors that you bring into it, that there is a comparison of players on his team, his teammates," Ferris said. "I'm sure when you go to work and you do the same amount of work as someone else does in your company you feel you should be compensated as fairly as them. It's hard for people to relate considering the dollars we talk about here, but remember players' careers are short, they're not long careers and in Mitch's case, he just wanted to be treated fairly and that we got to do at the end of the day, it completed a great contract for him and for the Leafs. He can remain a Leaf and not entertain any of these offer sheets that had been proposed and move on."

His own agent, said Marner didn't care about what league comparables were to him. He wanted to be paid like his top paid teammates. Ferris also says if you go to work you want to be paid the same as others who do the same work as you.

This isn't a good perspective to have (needing exactly the same as your coworker and not industry comparables) and at the very least unnecessary to publicize. Especially considering, he wanted to be paid similar to a two time hart trophy finalist, former 1st overall pick, centerman, former captain and free agent signing, John Tavares.

Not a message you'd want sent from a potential captain (we know he did...because his dad publically complained about it). And not a good message, you want a core player sending to his teammates.

However.. My point was in response to someone indicating Matthews deal was the problem. It wasn't.

- He didn't explore options as an RFA.
- His dad hasn't complained to the media about him not being captain.
- His agent hasn't publically stated anything about his demands relative to others

If Matthews wanted.... He could be paid more and he could make his negotiations much more distracting.

 

[tmlms13]

Then you simply take the 4 first round picks and run.

A team that gets Marner of an offersheet is probably not picking in the top 16 at any point in the 4 years.

What are the odds you can get a player as good as Marner in the back half of the 1st, even if you got 4 shots at it. And the Leafs are still good enough without him that they themselves won't be a high end lottery team so getting a top 5 is unrealistic, unless you're trading 3+ firsts just to move up. like 10 - 15 spots.

Offersheets at the highest level should focus on quality not quantity. And since that is basically impossible I honestly think that offer sheets should not be allowed above a certain $$ level, like 7m.

 

[conFABulator]

Marner, who led the Maple Leafs in points for a second straight season last year, will carry an average annual cap hit of $10.893 million on his new contract, the third-highest cap hit on the team. Ferris told First Up that Marner looked to Maple Leafs centres Auston Matthews and John Tavares as comparable contracts while he negotiated, rather than comparing himself to players around the league.

"Absolutely. That is one of the factors that you bring into it, that there is a comparison of players on his team, his teammates," Ferris said. "I'm sure when you go to work and you do the same amount of work as someone else does in your company you feel you should be compensated as fairly as them. It's hard for people to relate considering the dollars we talk about here, but remember players' careers are short, they're not long careers and in Mitch's case, he just wanted to be treated fairly and that we got to do at the end of the day, it completed a great contract for him and for the Leafs. He can remain a Leaf and not entertain any of these offer sheets that had been proposed and move on."

His own agent, said Marner didn't care about what league comparables were to him. He wanted to be paid like his top paid teammates. Ferris also says if you go to work you want to be paid the same as others who do the same work as you.

This isn't a good perspective to have (needing exactly the same as your coworker and not industry comparables) and at the very least unnecessary to publicize. Especially considering, he wanted to be paid similar to a two time hart trophy finalist, former 1st overall pick, centerman, former captain and free agent signing, John Tavares.

Not a message you'd want sent from a potential captain (we know he did...because his dad publically complained about it). And not a good message, you want a core player sending to his teammates.

However.. My point was in response to someone indicating Matthews deal was the problem. It wasn't.

- He didn't explore options as an RFA.
- His dad hasn't complained to the media about him not being captain.
- His agent hasn't publically stated anything about his demands relative to others

If Matthews wanted.... He could be paid more and he could make his negotiations much more distracting.

Good reply and add, thanks.

As for Marner, his agent is going to say whatever suits the situation as that is his job. Comparing Mitch to other Leafs is the way to go because it was easy to do. If Leafs comparables didn't support his case then he would use league-wide ones. Marner being the third highest paid Leaf sounds about right. AM makes more because he is more valuable, JT makes more because he was a UFA with a track record lured home to be captain.

Again, if the cap went up by $14M to $18M instead of staying flat through Covid I think it is possible we are looking at AM, MM and JT as at or below market value.

As for AM, the only thing he has done is signed shorter deals. People don't seem to acknowledge that shorter deals come with lower AAV. This has served us well. By the time the next deal expires he will be 30/31 and we will have had him for 9 years at $13.1M per year. That will look like a good deal too (providing be stays healthy). People can say "what has he done to warrant that"...well, he is the top centre on a top team, that plays in the largest market. He has two Richards, a Hart and lots of Selke votes. He has one everything you could ask but win a cup. That can be said about McDavid, Draisatl, Pastrnak, Karlsson, and dozens more too. Look for McDavid and Draisatl to leap from Matthews as top paid player soon too.

 

[ToneDog]

A team that gets Marner of an offersheet is probably not picking in the top 16 at any point in the 4 years.

What are the odds you can get a player as good as Marner in the back half of the 1st, even if you got 4 shots at it. And the Leafs are still good enough without him that they themselves won't be a high end lottery team so getting a top 5 is unrealistic, unless you're trading 3+ firsts just to move up. like 10 - 15 spots.

Offersheets at the highest level should focus on quality not quantity. And since that is basically impossible I honestly think that offer sheets should not be allowed above a certain $$ level, like 7m.

Agreed, odds are you do not get a player as good as Mitch but what if you get a Robert Thomas or Dawson Mercer or two ?? You also have almost $11m in cap space to play with and signed Petro or Hamilton. I'd have rolled the dice.

 

[francis246]

A team that gets Marner of an offersheet is probably not picking in the top 16 at any point in the 4 years.

What are the odds you can get a player as good as Marner in the back half of the 1st, even if you got 4 shots at it. And the Leafs are still good enough without him that they themselves won't be a high end lottery team so getting a top 5 is unrealistic, unless you're trading 3+ firsts just to move up. like 10 - 15 spots.

Offersheets at the highest level should focus on quality not quantity. And since that is basically impossible I honestly think that offer sheets should not be allowed above a certain $$ level, like 7m.

Offersheets should 100% be allowed and I wish more teams weren't scared to do them. I know people hate when I compare other leagues but the NBA has offersheets with a high degree of success. There's no compensation but teams have a period of time to either match or the player signs with the team he signed the offersheet with. I think it's brilliant. It's beneficial for both teams and players.

 

[Peasy]

Agreed, odds are you do not get a player as good as Mitch but what if you get a Robert Thomas or Dawson Mercer or two ?? You also have almost $11m in cap space to play with and signed Petro or Hamilton. I'd have rolled the dice.

1st round picks also just hold a lot of value. We got Muzzin for 1, Meier was acquired by NJ for essentially 2 1sts + (one an actual 1st rounder, and then a former 1st round spec)

 

[ToneDog]

1st round picks also just hold a lot of value. We got Muzzin for 1, Meier was acquired by NJ for essentially 2 1sts + (one an actual 1st rounder, and then a former 1st round spec)

Agreed but we also gave up two firsts for Foligno and ROR. Our scouting is also questionable if we kept the picks.

 

[tmlms13]

Agreed, odds are you do not get a player as good as Mitch but what if you get a Robert Thomas or Dawson Mercer or two ?? You also have almost $11m in cap space to play with and signed Petro or Hamilton. I'd have rolled the dice.

Lets say the Leafs got Marner through an offer sheet. And gave up 4 1st round picks. 2020 - 2023. So the other way around.... ironically we traded them all anyways.

Seth Jarvis (13th) - Carolina to dump Marleau
Corson Ceulemans (25th) Columbus for Foligno
Sam Rinzel (25th) - Chicago to dump Mrazek
Ottto Stenberg (25th) - St. Louis for O'Reilly

I know it's early to evaluate those last 3, but still, they are all 25th overall (never realized that). Seth Jarvis looks like a good player, solid middle 6, that's what you'd expect the floor to be at #13. What if the others are all complete busts. Or end up as bottom six or bottom pair guys? That's usually what you're getting in the 20's.

Lets be generous and say they all end up the same where Seth Jarvis is now.

Elite #1 winger and PKer
for
2 middle six forwards
2 middle pair D

4 or 5 years of 11m in free cap space until those picks arrive you gotta make sure you spend it correctly. Superstar UFAs on the open market are rare in the first place let alone actually getting him.

I'm taking the sure thing in Marner, unless the offer sheet is something rediculous like 13+

 

[ToneDog]

Lets say the Leafs got Marner through an offer sheet. And gave up 4 1st round picks. 2020 - 2023. So the other way around.... ironically we traded them all anyways.

Seth Jarvis (13th) - Carolina to dump Marleau
Corson Ceulemans (25th) Columbus for Foligno
Sam Rinzel (25th) - Chicago to dump Mrazek
Ottto Stenberg (25th) - St. Louis for O'Reilly

I know it's early to evaluate those last 3, but still, they are all 25th overall (never realized that). Seth Jarvis looks like a good player, solid middle 6, that's what you'd expect the floor to be at #13. What if the others are all complete busts. Or end up as bottom six or bottom pair guys? That's usually what you're getting in the 20's.

Lets be generous and say they all end up the same where Seth Jarvis is now.

Elite #1 winger and PKer
for
2 middle six forwards
2 middle pair D

4 or 5 years of 11m in free cap space until those picks arrive you gotta make sure you spend it correctly. Superstar UFAs on the open market are rare in the first place let alone actually getting him.

I'm taking the sure thing in Marner, unless the offer sheet is something rediculous like 13+

In your scenario, agreed you take Marner but from a "happy day" scenario like when we traded for Phil (because Burkie would never OS a player) and we ended up with Seguin, Hamilton, Pasta and Debrusk ??

 

[Dekes For Days]

If it was 10.5m you could have matched. Mitch would never have taken less than 4 years IMO.

10.5m for 1-5 years would have been a worse contract. Not sure why you think Marner wouldn't have taken less term.

So youre saying Marner would have accepted a lower aav with another team?

Marner wanted to play for Toronto if he was being treated approrpiately, but a similar AAV for a bridge could have easily been offered by another team and screwed us.
Or a massive long term contract like was rumoured, which also would have screwed us if accepted.

 

[Antropovsky]

10.5m for 1-5 years would have been a worse contract. Not sure why you think Marner wouldn't have taken less term.

Marner wanted to play for Toronto if he was being treated approrpiately, but a similar AAV for a bridge could have easily been offered by another team and screwed us.
Or a massive long term contract like was rumoured, which also would have screwed us if accepted.

Marners agent has loose lips and so does his dad.. Both never once said that Marner turned down an offer sheet for more money than the Leafs signed him for. When players do turn down more, it's typically made public. Even with quiet, reserved Tavares, it was made public that he turned down two better offers of more money. One with the Islanders (with an 8th season) and one with San Jose reported to be 14 million per year.

 

[Bluebear]

A team that gets Marner of an offersheet is probably not picking in the top 16 at any point in the 4 years.

What are the odds you can get a player as good as Marner in the back half of the 1st, even if you got 4 shots at it. And the Leafs are still good enough without him that they themselves won't be a high end lottery team so getting a top 5 is unrealistic, unless you're trading 3+ firsts just to move up. like 10 - 15 spots.

Offersheets at the highest level should focus on quality not quantity. And since that is basically impossible I honestly think that offer sheets should not be allowed above a certain $$ level, like 7m.

I don't think offersheets are in the CBA to facillitate player movement as much as a mechanism to prevent teams from unreasonably low-balling their RFA's

 

[Dekes For Days]

Both never once said that Marner turned down an offer sheet for more money than the Leafs signed him for. When players do turn down more, it's typically made public.

They said he received offer sheets. There were rumours about what they were, but the details of unsigned offer sheets typically don't get released. Heck, even just getting them in the first place is typically not released. I'm not sure what would lead somebody to believe they were for less than what he signed for. You don't offer sheet for less than market value.

 

[francis246]

Lets say the Leafs got Marner through an offer sheet. And gave up 4 1st round picks. 2020 - 2023. So the other way around.... ironically we traded them all anyways.

Seth Jarvis (13th) - Carolina to dump Marleau
Corson Ceulemans (25th) Columbus for Foligno
Sam Rinzel (25th) - Chicago to dump Mrazek
Ottto Stenberg (25th) - St. Louis for O'Reilly

I know it's early to evaluate those last 3, but still, they are all 25th overall (never realized that). Seth Jarvis looks like a good player, solid middle 6, that's what you'd expect the floor to be at #13. What if the others are all complete busts. Or end up as bottom six or bottom pair guys? That's usually what you're getting in the 20's.

Lets be generous and say they all end up the same where Seth Jarvis is now.

Elite #1 winger and PKer
for
2 middle six forwards
2 middle pair D

4 or 5 years of 11m in free cap space until those picks arrive you gotta make sure you spend it correctly. Superstar UFAs on the open market are rare in the first place let alone actually getting him.

I'm taking the sure thing in Marner, unless the offer sheet is something rediculous like 13+

I’ve said this a few times, leaf’s we’re picking Amirov if we kept our 13th overall.

 

[conFABulator]

Seth Jarvis (13th) - Carolina to dump Marleau
Corson Ceulemans (25th) Columbus for Foligno
Sam Rinzel (25th) - Chicago to dump Mrazek
Ottto Stenberg (25th) - St. Louis for O'Reilly

I know this is not really your point, but when I see that list of four picks turned prospects it got me thinking...

I think, for the most part the Leafs did a good job buffering against the impact of trading firsts round picks.

Marleau, 13th OA (Jarvis), Kapanen, Aberg and Lindgren for 15th OA (Amirov), Rodrigues, Hallander, Warfofsky.

Foligno for 25 OA (Ceulemans). This one is interesting because the 2021 draft was the first that was significantly impacted by Covid. Many juniors did not play at all that year and certainly scouting was heavily impacted. For this reason, many were saying that high picks in these drafts had less value. Ceulemans could become an NHLer, but he doesn't look to be an impact prospect. The guy we took at 57 OA (Knies) shows just how much a random crap shoot this draft was. Even Ty Voit at 153 OA looks decent.

Mrazek and 25 OA (Rinzel) for 38 OA (Fraser Minten)

Sandin and 25 OA (Stenberg) for O'Rielly and 28 OA (Cowan).

Rentals and dumping contracts cost draft capital and I am not trying to deflect away from that. My point is that I don't think the Leafs were as reckless as some like to make them out to be here. They always tried to salvage something in the draft and did a pretty good job of it too.

Maybe the above gets summarized as:

OUT

Marleau
Jarvis
Kapanen
Mrazek
Rinzel
Ceulemans
Sandin
Stenberg

IN

Amirov
Rodrigues (RFA)
Hallander
Minten
Foligno (Rental)
O'Rielly (Rental)
Cowan

It looks like the pieces of consequence we gave up were Jarvis (that one hurts) and possibly Sandin.

We dumped a couple of bad deals and picked up some coveted rentals and still came way with Amirov, Minten and Cowan. We turned Hallander and a 7th into McCann (which saved us Holl or Kerfoot).

 

[Dekes For Days]

I know this is not really your point, but when I see that list of four picks turned prospects it got me thinking...

I think, for the most part the Leafs did a good job buffering against the impact of trading firsts round picks.

Marleau, 13th OA (Jarvis), Kapanen, Aberg and Lindgren for 15th OA (Amirov), Rodrigues, Hallander, Warfofsky.

Foligno for 25 OA (Ceulemans). This one is interesting because the 2021 draft was the first that was significantly impacted by Covid. Many juniors did not play at all that year and certainly scouting was heavily impacted. For this reason, many were saying that high picks in these drafts had less value. Ceulemans could become an NHLer, but he doesn't look to be an impact prospect. The guy we took at 57 OA (Knies) shows just how much a random crap shoot this draft was. Even Ty Voit at 153 OA looks decent.

Mrazek and 25 OA (Rinzel) for 38 OA (Fraser Minten)

Sandin and 25 OA (Stenberg) for O'Rielly and 28 OA (Cowan).

Rentals and dumping contracts cost draft capital and I am not trying to deflect away from that. My point is that I don't think the Leafs were as reckless as some like to make them out to be here. They always tried to salvage something in the draft and did a pretty good job of it too.

Maybe the above gets summarized as:

OUT

Marleau
Jarvis
Kapanen
Mrazek
Rinzel
Ceulemans
Sandin
Stenberg

IN

Amirov
Rodrigues (RFA)
Hallander
Minten
Foligno (Rental)
O'Rielly (Rental)
Cowan

It looks like the pieces of consequence we gave up were Jarvis (that one hurts) and possibly Sandin.

We dumped a couple of bad deals and picked up some coveted rentals and still came way with Amirov, Minten and Cowan. We turned Hallander and a 7th into McCann (which saved us Holl or Kerfoot).

We also kept all of our top prospects, added picks through smart trades down/retention/taking on contracts, made effective use of those lower picks, added prospects from overseas/college to supplement, etc. The idea that we threw away the future is silly.

Even though there's a significant lag time from draft to effective NHL depth, and despite being competitive throughout instead of rebuilding, and despite our highest pick getting cancer (RIP), we got 3 times as many ELC man-games from Dubas acquired/drafted prospects during his tenure than we got from all previous GMs combined.

And it's looking like we'll have a number of ELCs on the big team for the next couple years at least.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

I know this is not really your point, but when I see that list of four picks turned prospects it got me thinking...

I think, for the most part the Leafs did a good job buffering against the impact of trading firsts round picks.

Marleau, 13th OA (Jarvis), Kapanen, Aberg and Lindgren for 15th OA (Amirov), Rodrigues, Hallander, Warfofsky.

Foligno for 25 OA (Ceulemans). This one is interesting because the 2021 draft was the first that was significantly impacted by Covid. Many juniors did not play at all that year and certainly scouting was heavily impacted. For this reason, many were saying that high picks in these drafts had less value. Ceulemans could become an NHLer, but he doesn't look to be an impact prospect. The guy we took at 57 OA (Knies) shows just how much a random crap shoot this draft was. Even Ty Voit at 153 OA looks decent.

Mrazek and 25 OA (Rinzel) for 38 OA (Fraser Minten)

Sandin and 25 OA (Stenberg) for O'Rielly and 28 OA (Cowan).

Rentals and dumping contracts cost draft capital and I am not trying to deflect away from that. My point is that I don't think the Leafs were as reckless as some like to make them out to be here. They always tried to salvage something in the draft and did a pretty good job of it too.

Maybe the above gets summarized as:

OUT

Marleau
Jarvis
Kapanen
Mrazek
Rinzel
Ceulemans
Sandin
Stenberg

IN

Amirov
Rodrigues (RFA)
Hallander
Minten
Foligno (Rental)
O'Rielly (Rental)
Cowan

It looks like the pieces of consequence we gave up were Jarvis (that one hurts) and possibly Sandin.

We dumped a couple of bad deals and picked up some coveted rentals and still came way with Amirov, Minten and Cowan. We turned Hallander and a 7th into McCann (which saved us Holl or Kerfoot).

It's fun to make scenarios like this and present them as real history, but we'll never really know who TOR was going to pick if given the chance.

The 2021 trade deadline is arguably one of Dubas' worst moments as a GM.