Tidbits: Around the League: NHL News - 2024-25

[Digitalbooya]

Because Kaprizov means more to the Wild and by the time he signs his extension the cap will have gone up.

If you had to pick between McDavid and Drai who would you pick?

If you had to pick between Kaprizov and Boldy who would you pick?

McDavid and Draisaitl are top 3 forwards in the game. Kaprizov is probably closer to ~10 than to those guys. He also plays a less important position. I just don’t see how Kaprizov can demand more than those guys (McDavid will get $15M for sure). He would need to turn in a 110+ point season and a long playoff run.

 

[thestonedkoala]

McDavid and Draisaitl are top 3 forwards in the game. Kaprizov is probably closer to ~10 than to those guys. He also plays a less important position. I just don’t see how Kaprizov can demand more than those guys (McDavid will get $15M for sure). He would need to turn in a 110+ point season and a long playoff run.

I mean can the Wild survive without Kaprizov is the ultimate question?

 

[Digitalbooya]

I mean can the Wild survive without Kaprizov is the ultimate question?

Survive what?

We shouldn’t be overpaying. Right now, the highest paid wingers are Panarin ($11.6M) and Pastrnak ($11.25M).

Panarin’s contract was 14.29% of the cap when he signed. That would be $13.1M if the ceiling is $92M.

Pastrnak’s contract was 13.47% of the cap when signed. That would be $12.4M if the ceiling is $92M.

If the argument is that the cap going up is what causes the increase, the ceiling would need to be ~ $105M for $15M to be 14.29% of the ceiling.

So sure, if the ceiling is $105M, then I’m fine with Kap getting $15M.

 

[Minnewildsota]

I mean can the Wild survive without Kaprizov is the ultimate question?

They survived without him before, they can do it again.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Survive what?

We shouldn’t be overpaying. Right now, the highest paid wingers are Panarin ($11.6M) and Pastrnak ($11.25M).

Panarin’s contract was 14.29% of the cap when he signed. That would be $13.1M if the ceiling is $92M.

Pastrnak’s contract was 13.47% of the cap when signed. That would be $12.4M if the ceiling is $92M.

If the argument is that the cap going up is what causes the increase, the ceiling would need to be ~ $105M for $15M to be 14.29% of the ceiling.

So sure, if the ceiling is $105M, then I’m fine with Kap getting $15M.

Survive as a playoff team.

Kaprizov has Minnesota over a barrel. Honestly I could see Kaprizov pushing the 15 million as it's not a stretch from Panarin's contract to Kaprizov at an extra 1.9 million a year to retain a homegrown talent.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Survive as a playoff team.

Kaprizov has Minnesota over a barrel. Honestly I could see Kaprizov pushing the 15 million as it's not a stretch from Panarin's contract to Kaprizov at an extra 1.9 million a year to retain a homegrown talent.

I would assume we can survive as a playoff team three years from now with the amount of quality prospects we have.

I do not see a legit argument for anything over $13M at this point. There is no reason his contract should be $3M+ more than the current highest winger contract AAV.

 

[57special]

I mean can the Wild survive without Kaprizov is the ultimate question?

Survive as a playoff team.

Kaprizov has Minnesota over a barrel. Honestly I could see Kaprizov pushing the 15 million as it's not a stretch from Panarin's contract to Kaprizov at an extra 1.9 million a year to retain a homegrown talent.

They weren't a playoff team with Kaprizov last year. I love him as a player, but it's hard to argue that he is indispensable to our success, because we haven't had any when he has been playing with us.

 

[thestonedkoala]

They weren't a playoff team with Kaprizov last year. I love him as a player, but it's hard to argue that he is indispensable to our success, because we haven't had any when he has been playing with us.

Will it get any easier? Also can the Wild let another superstar player walk?

I don't see anyone in the system as good as Kaprizov. Yurov maybe, but we'll see

 

[AKL]

You can say the Wild will survive as a franchise without Kaprizov

You can say they may even be a playoff team without him in a few years

Don't think you can say Guerin's job is safe if he walks, and Guerin is the one handing out the contract

Just don't think 'less than 13M' is as open and shut as we wish/hope/think it will/should/could be

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The amount Kaprizov makes will match Guerin's desperation to keep him. He has 100% of the leverage.

Maybe he'll let his comparables to be the other top wingers in the league, and maybe he'll want it to be the other top players. He'll have a spot for him with the Rangers or Blackhawks for a bunch of $'s if he wants it.

We know what Pastrnak and Nylander signed for, but we still have to see what Rantanen and Marner sign for. And that's if we're able to keep him purely in the "wingers" category.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I would assume we can survive as a playoff team three years from now with the amount of quality prospects we have.

I do not see a legit argument for anything over $13M at this point. There is no reason his contract should be $3M+ more than the current highest winger contract AAV.

Rantanten is probably going to sign in the $12's pretty soon.

 

[BagHead]

You can say the Wild will survive as a franchise without Kaprizov

You can say they may even be a playoff team without him in a few years

Don't think you can say Guerin's job is safe if he walks, and Guerin is the one handing out the contract

Just don't think 'less than 13M' is as open and shut as we wish/hope/think it will/should/could be

If Guerin signs him for more than 16% of the cap, that should be as fire-able an offense as losing him to free agency, and that's because even a high value asset becomes a net negative if you're paying too much for it.

In '26-27 the cap is *expected to be $96.5 million. That would put him around $15 million, and $15.44 would be 16%. I think $15M at that cap level will be fine (re: not ideal, but market value fair level), but $15.5 would be too much and might be reaching a crippling cost range.

Spoiler: Rant:

People may think I'm boohooing about $500k, pennies on the dollar, but when you're paying someone roughly fair value in a system that rewards teams for below-fair value contracts, the margin of the player's value becomes splinter thin. You have to penny pinch at that point.

*future projections are inherently fluid and exact amounts are prone to inaccuracy

 

[Digitalbooya]

Rantanten is probably going to sign in the $12's pretty soon.

Which would be a direct comparable to Kaprizov. Add $500k-1M for the cap going up.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Which would be a direct comparable to Kaprizov. Add $500k-1M for the cap going up.

Kaprizov (and/or his agent) might not think he needs to consider direct comparables.

"Make me the highest paid player or I'll go play in New York or Chicago and there's nothing you can do about it but pay me." If he wanted to.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Kaprizov (and/or his agent) might not think he needs to consider direct comparables.

"Make me the highest paid player or I'll go play in New York or Chicago and there's nothing you can do about it but pay me." If he wanted to.

And with the NTC, Minnesota can't trade him meaning they lose him for nothing

 

[AKL]

If Guerin signs him for more than 16% of the cap, that should be as fire-able an offense as losing him to free agency, and that's because even a high value asset becomes a net negative if you're paying too much for it.

In '26-27 the cap is *expected to be $96.5 million. That would put him around $15 million, and $15.44 would be 16%. I think $15M at that cap level will be fine (re: not ideal, but market value fair level), but $15.5 would be too much and might be reaching a crippling cost range.

Spoiler: Rant:

People may think I'm boohooing about $500k, pennies on the dollar, but when you're paying someone roughly fair value in a system that rewards teams for below-fair value contracts, the margin of the player's value becomes splinter thin. You have to penny pinch at that point.

*future projections are inherently fluid and exact amounts are prone to inaccuracy

I don't necessarily disagree with what should happen, I'm just saying what should happen and what does happen are not always the same, especially if you consider some of the previously mentioned factors at play here.

Marcus Foligno should not have gotten 4x4 with a full NMC a year before his contract expired given his recent history at the time. But he did.

Kaprizov (and/or his agent) might not think he needs to consider direct comparables.

"Make me the highest paid player or I'll go play in New York or Chicago and there's nothing you can do about it but pay me." If he wanted to.

Yes, basically.

 

[f7ben]

Guerin walked him right to FA and gave him absolutely zero reason to do anything other than try to get the biggest payday he can or leave. This team is going nowhere and Kaps prime is fully 100% wasted here. That’s it , that’s his legacy as an NHL player if he stays here.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Kaprizov (and/or his agent) might not think he needs to consider direct comparables.

"Make me the highest paid player or I'll go play in New York or Chicago and there's nothing you can do about it but pay me." If he wanted to.

He is the highest paid winger in that scenario.

 

[Minnewildsota]

He is the highest paid winger in that scenario.

How many teams have won the Cup WITH the highest paid winger on the team? not directed at you, just a general question

 

[Digitalbooya]

How many teams have won the Cup WITH the highest paid winger on the team? not directed at you, just a general question

Your question does tie directly to my argument. The highest paid players are centers because they have so much more responsibility than wingers do. This is why Kap will not get more than Draisaitl IMO.

And you know what, if Kap leaves we will be full force into the youth movement. Yurov/Ohgren/Buium/Wallstedt should all be making contributions at that point. It will not be the end of the world. Priority 1 is to keep Kap. But we will be okay if he does.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

He is the highest paid winger in that scenario.

"Player". Probably still excluding McDavid in this scenario if he ends up in the 16's or even 17's.

None of us have any idea how he's going handle the next negotiations (obviously), but I'm fully prepared for him putting the screws to the organization to keep him around, and I'm not absolutely sure that a nominal raise over the current highest paid winger will do the trick. It might, but I have no idea.

In other words, if Rantanen and Marner come in under $13M per year, I would not be surprised in the slightest if it still took ~$15M per year for him to stay. Kaprizov is not in a position where he has to be "reasonable".

 

[AKL]

Seems we have one group arguing how it should go given the current market, and one group arguing how it could go given the context of this specific scenario, and both groups are correct at the same time

 

[Waiver Draft]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1831760794952069344

https://x.com/i/web/status/1831761520956485995

 

[57special]

I love Kaprizov.

Having said that, MN has been a mediocre team with him in the lineup, in his prime, at 9.5M. Signing him for anything more than 12M on his next contract would be a mistake, IMO, as we would be signing him to a contract when he is past his prime years. If we had won anything- not necessarily a Cup, but a Conference Championship, or hell, even a playoff series, with him leading the way, then there would be added pressure to sign him, but as is, I go 8 x 12M, max 8 x 12.5M. If he won't sign, then try and trade him at the TDL in the final year of his contract. We won't get full value because of the NMC (thanks, BG, you idiot!), but you salvage what you can.

Again, Kaprizov is a really, really good player, but will be in his late 20's when his next contract begins. At that age he will be already past his prime. If a prime Kaprizov couldn't lead us to even one series win, do we really want to pour money into a lesser version?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I love Kaprizov.

Having said that, MN has been a mediocre team with him in the lineup, in his prime, at 9.5M. Signing him for anything more than 12M on his next contract would be a mistake, IMO, as we would be signing him to a contract when he is past his prime years. If we had won anything- not necessarily a Cup, but a Conference Championship, or hell, even a playoff series, with him leading the way, then there would be added pressure to sign him, but as is, I go 8 x 12M, max 8 x 12.5M. If he won't sign, then try and trade him at the TDL in the final year of his contract. We won't get full value because of the NMC (thanks, BG, you idiot!), but you salvage what you can.

Again, Kaprizov is a really, really good player, but will be in his late 20's when his next contract begins. At that age he will be already past his prime. If a prime Kaprizov couldn't lead us to even one series win, do we really want to pour money into a lesser version?

$9M, and there's also a pretty distinct reason for this.