Around the League 36-But Who's Counting...

[LakeLivin]

I think that some of Dundon's earlier comments hint about the org's potential stance with Aho and now Slavin. He said (paraphrasing) "it's our job to get better players than you, it's your job to make that as hard as possible." But later he said something along the lines of "Let's face it, we're not going to get a better player than Aho."

Some of the Borg's philosophies are pretty clear, but I don't think they're as set in stone as much as some others seem to think. And to my eye that's one of their strengths.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt. You can move on from Faulk when you have a player the caliber of Pesce to pair a replacement with. Ditto Hamilton and Slavin. The crown jewels are a different story.

I think we all agree that they'll make a much better effort to re-sign Aho and Slavin as they are the top guys that you need to try and keep. Even Bleed puts them in a different category than others.

My point is that even with them being a higher priority and more likely than others to be re-signed, I think it's fair to say that we shouldn't assume it's a foregone conclusion that they will definitely be re-signed.

Aho should be an easier decision as he'll be 27. Slavin will be 31 at the time and while he plays a style that should age well, a long term, high dollar deal may be less palatable for the Canes management at that age.

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

Aho should be an easier decision as he'll be 27. Slavin will be 31 at the time and while he plays a style that should age well, a long term, high dollar deal may be less palatable for the Canes management at that age.

Slavin could be a Brent Burns. So hell, even an 8 year deal at the right price might/could work.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think that some of Dundon's earlier comments hint about the org's potential stance with Aho and now Slavin. He said (paraphrasing) "it's our job to get better players than you, it's your job to make that as hard as possible." But later he said something along the lines of "Let's face it, we're not going to get a better player than Aho."

That's fair, but that didn't stop them from playing lowball/hardball when it came to his RFA contract which forced him to go the route of offer sheet.

Some of the Borg's philosophies are pretty clear, but I don't think they're as set in stone as much as some others seem to think. And to my eye that's one of their strengths.

Sure it's not set in stone, but in 5 years now, they have re-signed very few of their pending UFAs, so for me, I will be hesitant to believe that they'll change their approach until they do. As I said, I do think they'll make more of an effort to keep Aho and Slavin. And with TT, Pesce, Skjei types, I think it will depend on if they want to take value deals or not.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

That's fair, but that didn't stop them from playing lowball/hardball when it came to his RFA contract which forced him to go the route of offer sheet.



Sure it's not set in stone, but in 5 years now, they have re-signed very few of their pending UFAs, so for me, I will be hesitant to believe that they'll change their approach until they do. As I said, I do think they'll make more of an effort to keep Aho and Slavin. And with TT, Pesce, Skjei types, I think it will depend on if they want to take value deals or not.

They did have the benefit of control for that situation so they could afford to play hardball. Though they did luck out with the contract Montreal offered. I'm sure they recognize they don't have the same "safety net" to play hardball with him now.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

That's fair, but that didn't stop them from playing lowball/hardball when it came to his RFA contract which forced him to go the route of offer sheet.

Who says we played lowball/hardball with him? Look at how many other big RFAs weren't signed around the league even well after Aho signed the OS. We didn't have the sense of urgency that Aho did ultimately and we disagreed on the term. There were no reports about us playing hardball/lowball on the numbers or anything. Aho didn't sign the OS because he was upset about the negotiations, he and his agent just used it as a tool to get the 5 years they wanted ASAP because Aho wanted it behind him. Nothing forced him to go the route of the offer sheet, it was just an opportunity he and his camp wisely took advantage of. I don't think that situation is the indicator that everyone thinks it is.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Sure it's not set in stone, but in 5 years now, they have re-signed very few of their pending UFAs, so for me, I will be hesitant to believe that they'll change their approach until they do. As I said, I do think they'll make more of an effort to keep Aho and Slavin. And with TT, Pesce, Skjei types, I think it will depend on if they want to take value deals or not.

Carolina generally prefers to spend on RFAs over UFAs, but it's also important to note that the pieces that they've let go in UFA were usually non-core types of players. Aho and Slavin are going to be fundamentally different types of negotiations because they don't actually have a replacement for a 1C or a 1D in their hand. Those types of players don't tend to be traded unless a player demands that he wants out (and even that is dicey).

 

[A Star is Burns]

Who says we played lowball/hardball with him? Look at how many other big RFAs weren't signed around the league even well after Aho signed the OS. We didn't have the sense of urgency that Aho did ultimately and we disagreed on the term. There were no reports about us playing hardball/lowball on the numbers or anything. Aho didn't sign the OS because he was upset about the negotiations, he and his agent just used it as a tool to get the 5 years they wanted ASAP because Aho wanted it behind him. Nothing forced him to go the route of the offer sheet, it was just an opportunity he and his camp wisely took advantage of. I don't think that situation is the indicator that everyone thinks it is.

I've said many times I would have loved to see the alternate universe where we get to play out the contract negotiations. We look at Svech last year, and it was reported at one point he would get a bridge deal, but as time and negotiations went on, that wasn't the case. It would have been interesting to see if the team could have figured out an 8 year agreement that would have worked for both sides with Aho. And as you mention, that was a year that many RFAs went unsigned all the way to training camp. We just had to deal with the odd situation of Aho wanting what he wanted fast and Montreal stupidly thinking they could get one over on Dundon.

 

[Stickpucker]

I don't look at Bleed's post last pessimistic, but rather more along the lines of "realistic", at least until the front office shows actions that say differently.

I kinda agree with his take that it's likely that most of the UFAs will move on with the exception of Aho and Slavin, and that's not a guarantee with those two. It doesn't mean that some of the others (TT, Pesce, Skjei, etc..) won't also re-sign, but if I had to bet today, I'd bet against it. It's just been the team's MO so far that when guys want UFA or RFA contracts that they feel are too high, they move on, and in some cases trade them before they become UFAs.

Skinner (not just contract related), Faulk, Lindholm, Hanifin, Edmundson, Hamilton, DeAngelo, Trocheck, Nino, and to a lesser extent Bean, Nedeljkovic, Foegele, McGinn.

Some of those guys weren't just contracts but also wanting to move in another direction (Ned for instance), but the front office has been pretty consistent in their approach. We've all assumed that Aho and Slavin will be the exceptions to that approach, so we'll see.

This isn't a complaint because they've felt that rather than pay too much, they can find better value via trades or free agency and so far, that's been successful for them so it's hard to argue with the approach. It also ties into their strategy of getting as many picks as possible so there's more chances that someone in the pipeline can step into the line-up.

Looking at a macro level I can see how one would think that. When you break it up further:

Skinner: You already said other reasons...
Lindy/Hanifin: wanted to give team kick in ass and move more towards win now...get rid of "underperforming pieces"
Faulk: Too stacked on RD. wanted $$
Edmunson: was a plug
Hamilton: wanted 9m and was seen as a mercenary and a guy who only stays anywhere for a few years.
TDA: Got for free turned into picks.
Trocheck: Got for scraps. Mgmt viewed as placeholder 2c (clearly see KK as long term and committed)
Nino: Got for a sweet potato assassin not really viewed as "core".
Bean/Ned: Seen as prospects who didn't have what it takes...cut bait while still have value.

Slavin/Aho: Franchise pieces who cannot be replaced for "future considerations". The other names on this list seen at this level were Hamilton. (Sadly not Lindy at the time...viewed as swiss army knife 35-40pt c ). Hamilton always was viewed as a merc...not someone the franchise drafted & developed and might be a long timer.

Looking at the decisions individually I'm not sure that big picture makes as much sense. I think if Slavin would sign for 7.5-8m he stays a Cane. If he wants 9-10m he will probably be gone. If Aho would take a Barkovesque contract he will stay a Cane. If he wants MacKinnon/McDavid $$ he is gone. He clearly has shown to be closer to Barkov than MacKinnon. (Barkov is still better imo).

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

When Aho's new deal kicks in (wherever that is) he will be 27 years old. 8x$9.5m gets it done IMO. That lets him go the "big money into my mid-30s" route, which is exactly what he set himself up for when he did the 5 yr offer sheet. If he wants $12m from someone in a year where the cap expands he'll get it, but he won't get it for 8 years. 4x$12m = $48m and a shot at another contract at 31 years old, while 8x$9.5m = $76m. While it's of course taking the league much longer to figure out, teams are starting to wise up on giving huge contracts to 31 year olds. Not only that, but a front-loaded 8-year contract get still get you the same amount of money in the first couple of years as a higher priced/shorter term deal (which matters no matter the math but we're talking investments making millions per year in and of themselves when you get to this high a number).

If someone is willing to give him $12m for 8 years, I think he's gone. But I think he's likely to want an 8-year deal coming out of this and keep making superstar money into his mid 30s. He's likely willing to take the Barkov deal (as mentioned above) in order to do that. We are in a fine position to give him that.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think people are reading too much into what I wrote. Like I said, I DO think the Canes mgmt will put a higher focus on Aho and Slavin vs. some of the others, I just don't think it's as automatic as some are making it seem.

They are, right now, the two most important pieces on the Canes.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Who says we played lowball/hardball with him? Look at how many other big RFAs weren't signed around the league even well after Aho signed the OS.

It was reported by a couple of the reputable pundits back then. I don't recall who, but the Canes were in the $7M-$7.5M range IIRC. Given how they've handled other negotiations, I don't doubt it.

We didn't have the sense of urgency that Aho did ultimately and we disagreed on the term. There were no reports about us playing hardball/lowball on the numbers or anything.

You're wrong. There were reports as I stated above.

EDIT: BDC posted the tweet right after your post so I should have read that first.

Aho didn't sign the OS because he was upset about the negotiations, he and his agent just used it as a tool to get the 5 years they wanted ASAP because Aho wanted it behind him.

We don't really know what he wanted, it's speculation. I've thought in the past he's wanted 5 years as well, but someone pointed out that an offer sheet won't ever be longer than 5 years, because then the money gets amortized over 5 years to determine compensation so a 6 or 7 year deal will make the draft pick compensation much higher.

Nothing forced him to go the route of the offer sheet, it was just an opportunity he and his camp wisely took advantage of. I don't think that situation is the indicator that everyone thinks it is.

I do think he and his agent used the offer sheet to get the deal done asap, so I'm not disputing that, but the team was reportedly still offering a lower amount than he wanted and thus that's why he went that route. Nothing wrong with that.

I don't have a problem with the way the front office has operated, that's not the point. The point is that they put a value on a player and won't offer above their perceived value. I suspect that for Slavin and Aho it's a higher value than and thus will try harder to keep them. I think it will probably happen, but I'm not banking on it.

Carolina generally prefers to spend on RFAs over UFAs, but it's also important to note that the pieces that they've let go in UFA were usually non-core types of players. Aho and Slavin are going to be fundamentally different types of negotiations because they don't actually have a replacement for a 1C or a 1D in their hand. Those types of players don't tend to be traded unless a player demands that he wants out (and even that is dicey).

I agree, that's why I said (and even Bleed said) that the chances are higher for them being re-signed as they'd be a priority. Just not a given.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

It was reported by a couple of the reputable pundits back then. I don't recall who, but the Canes were in the $7M-$7.5M range IIRC. Given how they've handled other negotiations, I don't doubt it.


You're wrong. There were reports as I stated above.

EDIT: BDC posted the tweet right after your post so I should have read that first.


We don't really know what he wanted, it's speculation. I've thought in the past he's wanted 5 years as well, but someone pointed out that an offer sheet won't ever be longer than 5 years, because then the money gets amortized over 5 years to determine compensation.


I do think he and his agent used the offer sheet to get the deal done asap, so I'm not disputing that, but the team was reportedly still offering a lower amount than he wanted and thus that's why he went that route. Nothing wrong with that.

I don't have a problem with the way the front office has operated, that's not the point. The point is that they put a value on a player and won't offer above their perceived value. I suspect that for Slavin and Aho it's a higher value than and thus will try harder to keep them. I think it will probably happen, but I'm not banking on it.

Our initial offer was reportedly 8 years $7.5M. He wound up accepting 5 years $8.5M offer sheet. That is an extremely standard and reasonable initial offer from us, not a lowball whatsoever. If not for the offer sheet we would've easily gotten a deal done in time, there really wasn't much ground needed to make up based on the initial offers from each side in that tweet.

I'm not gonna go dig up old reports but pretty sure Aho or his agent said they wanted 5 years and to get a deal done ASAP. Money was never a sticking point in those negotiations and has never been reported to be.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Our initial offer was reportedly 8 years $7.5M. He wound up accepting 5 years $8.5M offer sheet. That is an extremely standard and reasonable initial offer from us, not a lowball whatsoever. If not for the offer sheet we would've easily gotten a deal done in time, there really wasn't much ground needed to make up based on the initial offers from each side in that tweet.

I'm not gonna go dig up old reports but pretty sure Aho or his agent said they wanted 5 years and to get a deal done ASAP. Money was never a sticking point in those negotiations and has never been reported to be.

The tweet specifically said the belief is they were "squeezing" him. If you don't agree or think the guy was wrong, that's fine but you specifically said: "There were no reports about us playing hardball/lowball on the numbers or anything." There were.

IMO, AAV is what matters here because Aho can get even more in years 6, 7, 8 (next contract) than accepting $7.5M for those years.

So Aho if Aho took the reported offer of $7.5M for 8 years, he'd have received $60M over those 8 years.
He took $8.5*5 plus his next contract will likely pay him at least $10M / year so it will be $72.5M over those 8 years as well as a bunch of it being guaranteed due to the signing bonuses. It's not an insignificant amount.

Particularly when his closest comps were guys like Rantanen ($9.25M) and Marner ($10M+ AAV), the offer from the Canes was on the lowball side IMO. If you disagree, then fine.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

The tweet specifically said the belief is they were "squeezing" him. If you don't agree or think the guy was wrong, that's fine but you specifically said: "There were no reports about us playing hardball/lowball on the numbers or anything." There were.

IMO, AAV is what matters here because Aho can get even more in years 6, 7, 8 (next contract) than accepting $7.5M for those years.

So Aho if Aho took the reported offer of $7.5M for 8 years, he'd have received $60M over those 8 years.
He took $8.5*5 plus his next contract will likely pay him at least $10M / year so it will be $72.5M over those 8 years as well as a bunch of it being guaranteed due to the signing bonuses. It's not an insignificant amount.

Particularly when his closest comps were guys like Rantanen ($9.25M) and Marner ($10M+ AAV), the offer from the Canes was on the lowball side IMO. If you disagree, then fine.

I don't care what the belief league wide was. GMs around the league were stupid enough to think that Dundon didn't have enough money to pay a signing bonus which he easily matched. That report is overridden by the actual numbers reported in the tweet after it.

What do you honestly think that the Avs and Leafs initial offers were for those guys? The offer sheet happened very early in the negotiation process. The Canes were caught very off guard and said so because there hadn't been many conversations with Aho's camp and they felt they were still early in the process. There was clearly a disconnect in sense of urgency to get a deal done, but really none of this suggests we were lowballing him, just a standard beginning of a negotiation.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don't care what the belief league wide was. GMs around the league were stupid enough to think that Dundon didn't have enough money to pay a signing bonus which he easily matched. That report is overridden by the actual numbers reported in the tweet after it.

Ok, but your statement that"nobody reported it" is incorrect. That you disagree with the statement or league wide view is fine, but there were others reporting it, which is why I made my statement in the first place. Like I said, if you disagree on if the offer was low or not, that's fine. It's all speculation on both of our parts as we aren't in the room.

What do you honestly think that the Avs and Leafs initial offers were for those guys? The offer sheet happened very early in the negotiation process. The Canes were caught very off guard and said so because there hadn't been many conversations with Aho's camp and they felt they were still early in the process. There was clearly a disconnect in sense of urgency to get a deal done, but really none of this suggests we were lowballing him, just a standard beginning of a negotiation.

Ok, whatever. Waddell also said he gave Dougie a very competitive offer, which turned out to not be the case, or at least Waddell has a different definition of competitive. I like this front office and most of what they've done, but I've also learned not to take their word as verbatim. Like I said, it's all speculation as none of us had real insight into the negotiations, thus why we tend to rely on what some of the insiders say. We then have to choose how credible we think they are.

 

[bleedgreen]

I think people are reading too much into what I wrote. Like I said, I DO think the Canes mgmt will put a higher focus on Aho and Slavin vs. some of the others, I just don't think it's as automatic as some are making it seem.

They are, right now, the two most important pieces on the Canes.

Pretty much everything you’ve said is what I was trying to say. I’m not trying to be pessimistic or negative, just being realistic. We don’t like signing guys to market value and there’s no reason to think the best players will take less than market.

Of course I think they’ll try harder with Slavin and Aho, doesn’t mean they won’t play hard ball and it doesn’t mean it’ll work out.

Ps to everyone else…Aho wanted five years for a reason. He wanted the flexibility. He wanted to be able to choose. That should be taking the whole “he’s staying with us no matter what” attitude out the door. He’ll have spent a long time with us at that point. Would not be weird at all to want to try something different.

 

[NotOpie]

We've all assumed that Aho and Slavin will be the exceptions to that approach, so we'll see.

They are, right now, the two most important pieces on the Canes.

I also don't think @bleedgreen is being pessimistic. Yet, I do believe he's missing the mark in assuming there's a good chance that all the other UFA guys will be gone. More on that in a bit.

@Boom Boom Apathy is right; nothing is guaranteed, but Aho and Slavin are different in the organization's eyes. They are currently the two most important pieces on the team. There has been a specific campaign to make these two guys the faces of the franchise as well. And we all know how much Dundon values valuable marketing. That said, I don't believe these two will get over market value but certainly close to market value with the 8 year deal as the key leverage the organization has. Also, if we do have the ultimate success, I believe Aho, in particular, will factor that in and want to win more with the Canes (not that Slavin won't value it significantly too, but Aho's competitive juices are well known.

As far as the other guys, I believe the organization will work hard to get Jarvis signed long term, prior to the end of his ELC. If Drury proves himself this season, I could see the Canes pushing for a 5 or 6 year deal with him.

Pesce, Skjei, Turbo, and Necas are all wild cards. I believe at least two of them will be re-signed given how the front office seems to have learned the benefit of having veterans of the playoffs on the team. There's something to be said about those veterans being "the ones that brung ya" too. I could see Pesce getting a long term deal (although his injury history will be factored in). I like Skjei, but I believe the organization is identifying his replacement (Seeley, Bryce Montgomery, Lajoie, etc.). I'd be surprised if he's around on a new deal. Necas' future, IMO, is totally dependent on this season.

In the end, I think the following:

Aho (signed next Summer) - $10.5 million to 11.25 million for 8 years
Slavin - $7.25 million for 8 years (Summer of '24)
Jarvis - (signed next Summer) - $7.75 million for 6 years
Drury - TBD
Pesce - $6.25 million for 6 years
Teravainen - $6.75 million for 6 years
Skjei - probably traded next season unless he's signed a shorter term deal
Necas - TBD

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

When Aho's new deal kicks in (wherever that is) he will be 27 years old. 8x$9.5m gets it done IMO. That lets him go the "big money into my mid-30s" route, which is exactly what he set himself up for when he did the 5 yr offer sheet. If he wants $12m from someone in a year where the cap expands he'll get it, but he won't get it for 8 years. 4x$12m = $48m and a shot at another contract at 31 years old, while 8x$9.5m = $76m. While it's of course taking the league much longer to figure out, teams are starting to wise up on giving huge contracts to 31 year olds. Not only that, but a front-loaded 8-year contract get still get you the same amount of money in the first couple of years as a higher priced/shorter term deal (which matters no matter the math but we're talking investments making millions per year in and of themselves when you get to this high a number).

If someone is willing to give him $12m for 8 years, I think he's gone. But I think he's likely to want an 8-year deal coming out of this and keep making superstar money into his mid 30s. He's likely willing to take the Barkov deal (as mentioned above) in order to do that. We are in a fine position to give him that.

$12 mil, while wince inducing, isn’t crazy. In year 2 of that contract, the present day equivalent drops under $11 mil. If the cap is in the $100 mil range in year 5 or so, it’s under $10 mil.

Some of the contracts coming in the next few years are going to make fans freak out.

 

[Chrispy]

The tweet specifically said the belief is they were "squeezing" him. If you don't agree or think the guy was wrong, that's fine but you specifically said: "There were no reports about us playing hardball/lowball on the numbers or anything." There were.

IMO, AAV is what matters here because Aho can get even more in years 6, 7, 8 (next contract) than accepting $7.5M for those years.

So Aho if Aho took the reported offer of $7.5M for 8 years, he'd have received $60M over those 8 years.
He took $8.5*5 plus his next contract will likely pay him at least $10M / year so it will be $72.5M over those 8 years as well as a bunch of it being guaranteed due to the signing bonuses. It's not an insignificant amount.

Particularly when his closest comps were guys like Rantanen ($9.25M) and Marner ($10M+ AAV), the offer from the Canes was on the lowball side IMO. If you disagree, then fine.

But were the Canes squeezing on money or term? It seemed like Carolina was pushing 1 or 8 years on their contract discussions and didn't want to entertain Aho's 5 year offers. Aho took the offer sheet (and a lower AAV than he was countering to Carolina) to get the 5 year term he wanted.

That said, I'm still annoyed they didn't get Hamilton done ahead of time to avoid a $9M+ contract offer from the market. If Aho wants to go to July 1, I doubt Carolina will be willing to match the top offer out there. They need to make a competitive offer early to entice Aho to get the contract negotiation over with, which is what Aho explicitly said he wanted during the offer sheet saga.

 

[LakeLivin]

Going forward I'm hoping that we more resemble the situation in Tampa a few years back (didn't Stamkos take a team friendly deal, presumably in order to enhance the rest of the roster?) than Toronto a few years back (cough, cough, Marner).

I know it's a business, but I've got to believe that some elite players will include increasing the chances of winning a cup in their calculus in addition to maximizing their revenue. I could see the Canes presenting that opportunity, don't know where players like Aho and Slavin might fit as far as taking it. But the Bolts vs. Leafs experiences seem pretty strong.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Cap inflation chart:

	Salary Cap (mil)
	82.50​	85.00​	90.00​	95.00​	100.00​
Cap Hit (mil)	5.00​	5.15​	5.45​	5.76​	6.06​
	6.00​	6.18​	6.55​	6.91​	7.27​
	7.00​	7.21​	7.64​	8.06​	8.48​
	8.00​	8.24​	8.73​	9.21​	9.70​
	9.00​	9.27​	9.82​	10.36​	10.91​
	10.00​	10.30​	10.91​	11.52​	12.12​
	11.00​	11.33​	12.00​	12.67​	13.33​
	12.00​	12.36​	13.09​	13.82​	14.55​
	13.00​	13.39​	14.18​	14.97​	15.76​

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Dom L and the Athletic think the Rangers are going to regress this season. They have them 12th for next season behind Washington, Pittsburgh and Us in the Metro

 

[Derailed75]

Dom L and the Athletic think the Rangers are going to regress this season. They have them 12th for next season behind Washington, Pittsburgh and Us in the Metro

Not surprised. They are still a good team but they ran on career seasons from Kreider and Sheshterkin