Around the League 36-But Who's Counting...

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think there's some hindsight with how we were viewed back in 2018. Of course it wasn't "nobody" that had expectations for them, but the majority of people thought they were probably not good enough yet again.

On this board, there was downright panic from some about "who would score goals?" after Skinner and Lindholm were traded. We went into the season with 1 player that played any NHL time at center (Staal) after Rask was hurt so our centers were Aho (10 NHL games), Staal and Wallmark. Many on this board (and most on HF) thought Brindy was a terrible hire at coach and most also laughed at Waddell as the GM. Our goalie situation was Darling and Mrazek (who flamed out in Detroit and Philly). We did not have a bonafide superstar on the team and were viewed as a team that put up good possession metrics but didn't have the talent or goaltending to turn that into wins.

Even our own board, who is more optimistic than the rest of HF, had almost 60% of the votes saying we'd miss the playoffs and 40% said we would. By December fans were in rage/tank mode already.

My point though is that teams can turn it around in a hurry. Some key things happened for us.
1) Brindy turned out to be a good coach.
2) Aho was able to become a good center.
3) Rask for Nino trade changed the completion of the team.
4) We got McBack-up off waivers who gave us solid goaltending until Mrazek found his groove (and we moved on from Darling).
5) We lucked out in the draft lottery.

2-3 years from now, other teams can and likely will turn it around in the west.

 

[HisIceness]

It's crazy looking back on it but getting McBackup was a stroke of luck

 

[tarheelhockey]

I think all of the takes represented here were true at the time. It was very largely a matter of who you asked. Analytics people loved the Canes and chalked their misfortunes up to goaltending and luck. More traditional analysts saw them as soft, star-less. People with an axe to grind saw them as swirling the relocation drain and making cheap decisions. Optimists saw them as young and upcoming. HF26 was becoming very negative because it was mostly longtime die-hards who had been through hell and back with this team.

One's memories of that era can be chalked up largely to who you listened to.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

It's crazy looking back on it but getting McBackup was a stroke of luck

At the time, I'd bet 80% of us wanted us to claim Calvin Pickard.

Last offseason, I'd bet at least 60% of us wanted to keep Nedeljkovic rather than get Freddie Andersen.

Goalies are voodoo. Sometimes you actually do want the older guy. But more than anything it's clear team defense has a greater say in goaltending than the tender himself, unless it really is a Darling/Shesterkin bad/good level outlier.

 

[HisIceness]

I know that for me in 2018 I just wanted to see Hurricanes playoff hockey again, even if it meant squeaking in on the last day only to get swept in round 1. It had been since 2009, we had the longest current drought at the time creeping up on tying the record (now since broken by Buffalo) and had among the longest droughts in sports, ahead of other franchises like the Browns, Mariners, and Sacramento Kings. That wasn't exactly great company to be in. Also I felt that with the core of Aho, Slavin, Pesce etc a playoff appearance would finally be something to build on, but another missed year was going to add to more frustration and rumors about said core being "unhappy".

I don't remember when exactly but even after that nice 10-game start they started slipping and I was begging for them to lose for Hughes. I had had enough of the bullshit 9th place finishes. I'm glad they had other ideas. That run helped springboard into today's contender. Yeah it sucks losing to NYR in round 2 but do you miss the 10th place finishes? No? Yeah me either.

 

[DaveG]

That’s something that can change in a year or two.

More like 3-4 with the West unless LAs kids all turn it on at the exact same time 2016-17 Leafs style. Nobody else in that conference has the prospect depth and talent to do it right now. Though IMO St Louis can beat them in a 7 game series even last year if their goalie doesn't get hurt.

 

[bleedgreen]

More like 3-4 with the West unless LAs kids all turn it on at the exact same time 2016-17 Leafs style. Nobody else in that conference has the prospect depth and talent to do it right now. Though IMO St Louis can beat them in a 7 game series even last year if their goalie doesn't get hurt.

I don’t disagree, I’ve just gotten out of the habit of making big statements that predict the future of this game. Everything changes every few years, prospects no one expected just arrive. Trades change the balance. It could change in one to two, maybe three to four….but it will change. That’s what I said to the original post that said Mackinnon’s deal won’t hurt the Avs over the years due to a weak conference. It’s an 8 year deal that starts NEXT year. Two years into his deal the conference is likely to have a different look.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

I don’t disagree, I’ve just gotten out of the habit of making big statements that predict the future of this game. Everything changes every few years, prospects no one expected just arrive. Trades change the balance. It could change in one to two, maybe three to four….but it will change. That’s what I said to the original post that said Mackinnon’s deal won’t hurt the Avs over the years due to a weak conference. It’s an 8 year deal that starts NEXT year. Two years into his deal the conference is likely to have a different look.

I haven't seen anyone say that MacK's deal will hurt the Avs much. Yeah it's double the cap hit, but it's completely deserved. He's also about as young as a UFA could possibly be, like Aho. So extending him for 8 years goes until right at when he should theoretically start falling off. I love the re-sign.

I also am sure the power balance will shift West eventually. It's just inevitable. But right now it doesn't look immediate. I sure wish the Canes could relocate West for a few seasons.

 

[HisIceness]

I haven't seen anyone say that MacK's deal will hurt the Avs much. Yeah it's double the cap hit, but it's completely deserved. He's also about as young as a UFA could possibly be, like Aho. So extending him for 8 years goes until right at when he should theoretically start falling off. I love the re-sign.

I also am sure the power balance will shift West eventually. It's just inevitable. But right now it doesn't look immediate. I sure wish the Canes could relocate West for a few seasons.

Ladies and gentlemen welcome to the ice, your Houston Hurricanes!

 

[bleedgreen]

I haven't seen anyone say that MacK's deal will hurt the Avs much. Yeah it's double the cap hit, but it's completely deserved. He's also about as young as a UFA could possibly be, like Aho. So extending him for 8 years goes until right at when he should theoretically start falling off. I love the re-sign.

I also am sure the power balance will shift West eventually. It's just inevitable. But right now it doesn't look immediate. I sure wish the Canes could relocate West for a few seasons.

The conversation started with me saying this will be an interesting example to watch a max mega deal like this play out with the cap. Edm has been trying for years but there was no depth and bad deals mixed in from the get go, and they started their build without many tradeable assets…and people are super critical of their management. This is different in that they have a pretty stacked team, some assets to play with (they’ve already moved a bunch of course) and no one can say a bad word about the management. So it’s a relatively clean slate….so we can see if a team at the top can stay there while paying someone this kind of money. How important are the support players? How far can two superstars at different positions carry a team? How long can you go at the top with money pucking rotating goalies? It’s pretty fascinating stuff.

Some people have absolutely said it won’t work, but it’s just silly to really say with sincerity either way. We havent seen it before. We just know how hard it is for EDM to build a team around McD from a shitty position.

Personally I’m a little skeptical, though I think it’ll take a few years for it to sink in and they could win another cup which makes it completely worth it. As also an Avs fan I know this market which is built off stars….they had no choice here. As long as there has been a cap Ive thought it’s better to have a team full of B- to B+ players than one with one to three A- to A+ players and a bunch of C players. Easier to replace one of the B guys as you lose them to age/FA. If a team like that has a stud, it benefits them for him to be a dman. I always think of Nashville or Cbus in their good years. It’s wave after wave over vs stopping the big guns for a few minutes at a time.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

The conversation started with me saying this will be an interesting example to watch a max mega deal like this play out with the cap. Edm has been trying for years but there was no depth and bad deals mixed in from the get go, and they started their build without many tradeable assets…and people are super critical of their management. This is different in that they have a pretty stacked team, some assets to play with (they’ve already moved a bunch of course) and no one can say a bad word about the management. So it’s a relatively clean slate….so we can see if a team at the top can stay there while paying someone this kind of money. How important are the support players? How far can two superstars at different positions carry a team? How long can you go at the top with money pucking rotating goalies? It’s pretty fascinating stuff.

Some people have as absolutely said it won’t work, but it’s just silly to really say with sincerity either way. We havent seen it before. We just know how hard it is for EDM to build a team around McD from a shitty position.

Personally I’m a little skeptical, though I think it’ll take a few years for it to sink in and they could win another cup which makes it completely worth it. As also an Avs fan I know this market which is built off stars….they had no choice here. As long as there has been a cap Ive thought it’s better to have a team full of B- to B+ players than one with one to three A- to A+ players and a bunch of C players. Easier to replace one of the B guys as you lose them to age/FA. If a team like that has a stud, it benefits them for him to be a dman. I always think of Nashville or Cbus in their good years. It’s wave after wave over vs stopping the big guns for a few minutes at a time.

Is your argument that the Oilers' difficulty in fielding a competitive team is due to the big contract McDavid got and the lack of cap room they have to play with in order to build around him?

If so, I don't think based on what I've seen from the Oilers in the last 7 years that I buy that narrative in the slightest...

EDIT: nevermind I get what you're saying - having the best player in the world at a max contract doesn't just guarantee success if besides him (and Draisaitl) you're starting from a position of basically 0 valuable assets. And I agree that is definitely not the position the Avs find themselves in right now.

 

[bleedgreen]

Is your argument that the Oilers' difficulty in fielding a competitive team is due to the big contract McDavid got and the lack of cap room they have to play with in order to build around him?

If so, I don't think based on what I've seen from the Oilers in the last 7 years that I buy that narrative in the slightest...

No! I don’t think you can use them as an example at all. My argument is that they’re just a bad example to refer to regardless of what you believe the issue is there. I personally blame their drafting past the first round In the earlier days of 97. They’re only now getting cost controlled assets to put around these guys. I actually think Holland is doing a decent job of building them, he was dealt a crap situation and it’s finally starting to look better.

My whole point is we’ve never seen a team that doesn’t have major flaws going on do this, which makes it the first true example and fun to watch. People will argue because of Edm it can’t be done, and that’s ridiculous.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

My whole point is we’ve never seen a team that doesn’t have major flaws going on do this, which makes it the first true example and fun to watch. People will argue because of Edm it can’t be done, and that’s ridiculous.

Tampa isn't in the exact same position but I think they're a contemporary example.

If you want an example further back - the Penguins and Caps are probably good ones. Crosby and Malkin contracts starting in 2013 and 2014 respectively are comparable from a percentage of cap hit perspective. Ovechkin's contract starting in '09 was similar as well. They both had other supporting cast (Letang, Fleury, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Green, Carlson) similar to the Rantanen/Makar/Landeskog core. I think the Avs are likely to have a similar decade of success to those two given their current setup. The "cost" of this new Mackinnon contract is essentially one Erik Johnson. If you ask me, it's the Nichushkin type contracts that are more likely to get you in trouble, not the Mackinnon, Rantanen, or Makar contracts.

 

[bleedgreen]

Tampa isn't in the exact same position but I think they're a contemporary example.

If you want an example further back - the Penguins and Caps are probably good ones. Crosby and Malkin contracts starting in 2013 and 2014 respectively are comparable from a percentage of cap hit perspective. Ovechkin's contract starting in '09 was similar as well. They both had other supporting cast (Letang, Fleury, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Green, Carlson) similar to the Rantanen/Makar/Landeskog core. I think the Avs are likely to have a similar decade of success to those two given their current setup. The "cost" of this new Mackinnon contract is essentially one Erik Johnson. If you ask me, it's the Nichushkin type contracts that are more likely to get you in trouble, not the Mackinnon, Rantanen, or Makar contracts.

You’ve got Byram and Newhook contracts. They’ll likely lose EJ and Girard, which they’ll probably recover from but will have an impact. I’m talking long term overall though.

I don’t like Tampa as an example because of the Florida impacted contracts that everyone was shocked they got guys to sign. Stamkos and Hedman could’ve had more. Mack just made sure he was the highest paid guy in the game, no breaks there. You could say Makar could’ve taken them for more.

I was wondering about the cap percentage and the two penguin contracts. That would be a good example if theyre the same.

I didn’t want them to sign the Nuke contract, I agree that’s one that haunts them. That guy had a career year and I have no expectation of him being that guy again in any year let alone years of that contract.

 

[Bub]

I think all of the takes represented here were true at the time. It was very largely a matter of who you asked. Analytics people loved the Canes and chalked their misfortunes up to goaltending and luck. More traditional analysts saw them as soft, star-less. People with an axe to grind saw them as swirling the relocation drain and making cheap decisions. Optimists saw them as young and upcoming. HF26 was becoming very negative because it was mostly longtime die-hards who had been through hell and back with this team.

One's memories of that era can be chalked up largely to who you listened to.

Spot-on, 100% summation. And as they kept on losing at the time, you couldn't argue with any of it. Bad team? Unlucky team? Unwanted team? Yep, yep, and yep.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

The conversation started with me saying this will be an interesting example to watch a max mega deal like this play out with the cap. Edm has been trying for years but there was no depth and bad deals mixed in from the get go, and they started their build without many tradeable assets…and people are super critical of their management. This is different in that they have a pretty stacked team, some assets to play with (they’ve already moved a bunch of course) and no one can say a bad word about the management. So it’s a relatively clean slate….so we can see if a team at the top can stay there while paying someone this kind of money. How important are the support players? How far can two superstars at different positions carry a team? How long can you go at the top with money pucking rotating goalies? It’s pretty fascinating stuff.

Some people have absolutely said it won’t work, but it’s just silly to really say with sincerity either way. We havent seen it before. We just know how hard it is for EDM to build a team around McD from a shitty position.

Personally I’m a little skeptical, though I think it’ll take a few years for it to sink in and they could win another cup which makes it completely worth it. As also an Avs fan I know this market which is built off stars….they had no choice here. As long as there has been a cap Ive thought it’s better to have a team full of B- to B+ players than one with one to three A- to A+ players and a bunch of C players. Easier to replace one of the B guys as you lose them to age/FA. If a team like that has a stud, it benefits them for him to be a dman. I always think of Nashville or Cbus in their good years. It’s wave after wave over vs stopping the big guns for a few minutes at a time.

Absolutely. I as well am fascinated by a few teams' management styles, but most notably the Canes (obviously I root for them and they're so different) and the Avs.

What works for the Avs is they do have guys taking a discount there. Yeah, MacK got the highest salary in the league, but he really could have taken a bit more. Is it a discount? Maybe, maybe not, but he didn't screw them either. He clearly wanted to stay. The term on Landeskog is a bit troubling but the cap hit is very good. Makar could have taken more. I personally like the money pucking on goalies but I agree with you that it is rolling the dice every year. At the same time I feel like you just have to get lucky otherwise, and then you just lock in your guy (Vasilevskiy, Saros, Skesterkin). I don't think the Canes/Avs have that guy at goal in their systems.

What REALLY helps the Avs is they got a top pairing guy (Toews) for two 2nds and then got him on a sweetheart deal. That's like paying the same price we paid for Skjei, but getting a better Skjei and getting him for even less cap hit. And our Skjei deal is just money, so I'm not saying that one is bad. We similarly got lucky by drafting a top pair in the 3rd and 4th in Pesce and Slavin, and then locking them in on sweetheart deals.

You can't compare a team like Edmonton to what the Canes/Avs are doing because Edmonton isn't in their stratosphere defensively. It will take a miracle for them to win the cup because teams can really defend and grind them down in the playoffs. I also am confident that when the Avs do lose Girard eventually, they'll find other gems in the rough to make up for it. I trust Sakic's track record. He'll keep finding "loose change" assets to build his team. The biggest challenge with Colorado is what they'll do with Toews, IMO. I bet they find a way to keep him but it will cost their defensive depth. Nevertheless it will be very difficult to keep Byram and Toews. (If I were their GM I'd try to shop Girard to make it work).

 

[NotOpie]

Absolutely. I as well am fascinated by a few teams' management styles, but most notably the Canes (obviously I root for them and they're so different) and the Avs.

What works for the Avs is they do have guys taking a discount there. Yeah, MacK got the highest salary in the league, but he really could have taken a bit more. Is it a discount? Maybe, maybe not, but he didn't screw them either. He clearly wanted to stay. The term on Landeskog is a bit troubling but the cap hit is very good. Makar could have taken more. I personally like the money pucking on goalies but I agree with you that it is rolling the dice every year. At the same time I feel like you just have to get lucky otherwise, and then you just lock in your guy (Vasilevskiy, Saros, Skesterkin). I don't think the Canes/Avs have that guy at goal in their systems.

What REALLY helps the Avs is they got a top pairing guy (Toews) for two 2nds and then got him on a sweetheart deal. That's like paying the same price we paid for Skjei, but getting a better Skjei and getting him for even less cap hit. And our Skjei deal is just money, so I'm not saying that one is bad. We similarly got lucky by drafting a top pair in the 3rd and 4th in Pesce and Slavin, and then locking them in on sweetheart deals.

You can't compare a team like Edmonton to what the Canes/Avs are doing because Edmonton isn't in their stratosphere defensively. It will take a miracle for them to win the cup because teams can really defend and grind them down in the playoffs. I also am confident that when the Avs do lose Girard eventually, they'll find other gems in the rough to make up for it. I trust Sakic's track record. He'll keep finding "loose change" assets to build his team. The biggest challenge with Colorado is what they'll do with Toews, IMO. I bet they find a way to keep him but it will cost their defensive depth. Nevertheless it will be very difficult to keep Byram and Toews. (If I were their GM I'd try to shop Girard to make it work).

All smart points....one thing that I do notice about the Avs is that they've got a couple of nice potential forward youths, but their blue line options down the road are very slim. I mean, there's not a guy in their system that looks to be even close to becoming and NHL'er.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

All smart points....one thing that I do notice about the Avs is that they've got a couple of nice potential forward youths, but their blue line options down the road are very slim. I mean, there's not a guy in their system that looks to be even close to becoming and NHL'er.

That may be the case, but Byram is 21 and Makar is 23. Girard is 24. Their oldest D other than Eric Johnson, who will walk next year probably, is 30. When you have so good of a top 4, they don't need anybody coming in for a while. I'm sure they would love to have the next Makar, though.

 

[HisIceness]

I'm getting cigarette-stained teeth vibes looking at this.

Other than that, it looks okay I suppose?

 

[NotOpie]

That may be the case, but Byram is 21 and Makar is 23. Girard is 24. Their oldest D other than Eric Johnson, who will walk next year probably, is 30. When you have so good of a top 4, they don't need anybody coming in for a while. I'm sure they would love to have the next Makar, though.

Absolutely agree and understand. My point, I guess, is that in a couple of years they are going to have to pay both Byrum (next season) and Toews (24-25). That may be fine, but it will eat up cap pretty quickly and they don't have any potential ELCs in the pipeline.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Absolutely agree and understand. My point, I guess, is that in a couple of years they are going to have to pay both Byrum (next season) and Toews (24-25). That may be fine, but it will eat up cap pretty quickly and they don't have any potential ELCs in the pipeline.

They can pay one and trade the other, potentially. Byram, at his max potential ceiling, could become a Toews-like piece himself.

 

[Canes]

I'm getting cigarette-stained teeth vibes looking at this.

Other than that, it looks okay I suppose?

What is with the Islanders and their terrible graphic designers.

That's literally worse than these somehow

 

[tarheelhockey]

I'm getting cigarette-stained teeth vibes looking at this.

Other than that, it looks okay I suppose?

I must be missing something about the D E T A I L S.

I see they decided to use 4 gold rings which is presumably a Stanley Cup reference. Is there another D E T A I L involved?

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

That Spencer Knight contract suggests Bob will be on the move next year.

I briefly wondered if it might be a Marleau/Burns-esque move for us next offseason with Andersen and Raanta both coming up (Bob/Kochetkov combo could be fun), but then I realized the Panthers don't have any of their first round picks until 2026 so...

 

[DaveG]

That Spencer Knight contract suggests Bob will be on the move next year.

I briefly wondered if it might be a Marleau/Burns-esque move for us next offseason with Andersen and Raanta both coming up (Bob/Kochetkov combo could be fun), but then I realized the Panthers don't have any of their first round picks until 2026 so...

Assuming you mean with max retention by Florida right?