Around the League - 2023 Offseason Edition

[henchman21]

Sports media (and traditional media in general) are having a real tough time right now. Look at how many people lost their jobs with the Athletic and Bell media (TSN) in the last year alone.

On the French side the biggest media (Quebecor) is seriously threatening to shut down TVA Sports because they burn too much money.

This is just the tip of the iceberg because advertisers spend their money on Facebook and Google now where they can target their customers better. It's not going well.

Yeah... as it applies here, I don't think people really see how poorly things are going from the TV side of things in sports. RSNs are going bankrupt, the areas they'll survive are the areas that'll get teams to agree to a 30% haircut. Some teams are giving up on their own networks in general and going back to the OTA sort of programming... knowing they are foregoing a ton of revenue in the short term in hopes to widen the market. Major players like NBC, CBS, FOX, and ESPN got into a huge bidding war for 15 years until the growth by any means necessary started fracturing. It is now to the point where Disney is trying to sell off ESPN to plug the cracked dam... and leagues (like the NHL) are trying to buy in to keep the stations afloat.

The cord cutting, the exodus of advertisers, the massive increase in how costly TV rights deals have been, ease and cratering cost infrastructure for streaming is all setting up a pretty dire situations in traditional media... and sports media is one of the hardest hit specifically.

On a different note... the struggles here really show it was wise to not give Quebecor a team. That team would already have massive financial pressure.

 

[Alienblood]

If I was the Canes, yes. In a hypothetical situation where we would have to replace MacKinnon with Aho or Bergeron for our cup run (assuming we are talking prime players here), I might go with Bergeron because we had such much better winger depth to surround him with than what Carolina has.

Frankly, I just wonder if the playing style of Carolina seriously masks their mediocre (up front) forward roster because that style of play will do wonders during the regular season. Just shoot from everywhere, constant pressure etc. But in the playoffs everything tightens up, and you need more individual talent and special teams to work. And they just don't have enough talent up front. You can say Aho is not a top #1C (I think he's on the fringe of top-10), but that's not really an issue you can solve easily. Franchise top centers don't come up very often. Wingers are easier to find.

Aho is a terrific player and a top 8 C in the league.
I.would take him over that lazy Matthews all day.

 

[UnkleKraker]

Svechnikov is overrated:

Great prospect that turned into just a good player at the NHL level instead of anywhere near elite.

 

[henchman21]

Great prospect that turned into just a good player at the NHL level instead of anywhere near elite.

I think he's a fantastic player, but he was painted as the next big Russian thing and that he'd be a superstar like Ovi... even today people massively overrate who he is as a player. He's a Landy level impact 1st line wing. Not Cheese level guy.

 

[UnkleKraker]

Yeah... as it applies here, I don't think people really see how poorly things are going from the TV side of things in sports. RSNs are going bankrupt, the areas they'll survive are the areas that'll get teams to agree to a 30% haircut. Some teams are giving up on their own networks in general and going back to the OTA sort of programming... knowing they are foregoing a ton of revenue in the short term in hopes to widen the market. Major players like NBC, CBS, FOX, and ESPN got into a huge bidding war for 15 years until the growth by any means necessary started fracturing. It is now to the point where Disney is trying to sell off ESPN to plug the cracked dam... and leagues (like the NHL) are trying to buy in to keep the stations afloat.

The cord cutting, the exodus of advertisers, the massive increase in how costly TV rights deals have been, ease and cratering cost infrastructure for streaming is all setting up a pretty dire situations in traditional media... and sports media is one of the hardest hit specifically.

On a different note... the struggles here really show it was wise to not give Quebecor a team. That team would already have massive financial pressure.

And yet the final nail in the coffin for the PAC12 was offering teams a streaming/subscription service for their media rights. The President and AD's stated explicitly that they wanted "linear media" instead. We are in that in between place right now for sure.

I think he's a fantastic player, but he was painted as the next big Russian thing and that he'd be a superstar like Ovi... even today people massively overrate who he is as a player. He's a Landy level impact 1st line wing. Not Cheese level guy.

Agreed. He put up franchise level stats prior to being drafted and was hyped accordingly. Calling him "good" might be selling him a little short but he hasn't come close to what it looked like he could be when he was a prospect.

 

[henchman21]

And yet the final nail in the coffin for the PAC12 was offering teams a streaming/subscription service for their media rights. The President and AD's stated explicitly that they wanted "linear media" instead. We are in that in between place right now for sure.



Agreed. He put up franchise level stats prior to being drafted and was hyped accordingly. Calling him "good" might be selling him a little short but he hasn't come close to what it looked like he could be when he was a prospect.

If the base level of the streaming rights would have been 32m instead of 20m, I'd bet the Pac12 would still be together. Which gets to the root of the whole issue... money. When you break off into these ala carte streaming, you need much higher subscription costs to provide the same level of coverage. Instead of nearly every cable/satellite subscriber paying $7-8 for the ESPN channels... you have 1/5th of the audience (probably being generous) having to foot the whole bill. Which is why you hear the $40 amount coming out for a full on ESPN streaming service being thrown out.

I think people overrated a bit to begin with and the hype has just never fully settled... maybe because people don't watch Carolina enough? I think he's a guy who will have an 80 point season or two in his career and maybe even hit 40g at some point... but he's really a 30-40 guy who plays a well rounded game.

 

[henchman21]

The whole money part of TV is also why I think there is a real chance at some major friction in the next CBA. The TSN deal runs out right at the end of the CBA and ESPN/TNT will be up shortly after. If the projections start coming in lower or flat... the owners will really want to protect themselves, and the mechanism for that is escrow. Which is the #1 thing the players hate.

 

[Balthazar]

On a different note... the struggles here really show it was wise to not give Quebecor a team. That team would already have massive financial pressure.

That's possible (even likely) but we'll never know for sure. The original plan was to use the Nordiques to launch TVA Sports. Since the Nordiques didn't happen TVA Sports never really took off. Right now they are sharings NHL rights with Rogers (Sportsnet).

There are 3 telecom giants in Canada and all 3 of them have the exact same business model (they own plenty of traditional media and they have their own internet + cell phone networks).

Bell - TSN (EN), RDS (FR)
Rogers - Sportsnet (EN)
Quebecor - TVA Sports (FR)

All 3 lose money with their traditional media but the rest of their business is profitable. That's why I don't know what would have happened with the Nords. Rogers still make plenty of money with the Leafs.

 

[Ceremony]

Can't wait to see what happens when the cap goes down because it's physically impossible to watch NHL games unless you're in the building, where nosebleeds in Arizona will start at 1,000 dollars in an attempt to balance out the loss of TV viewer income.

 

[henchman21]

That's possible (even likely) but we'll never know for sure. The original plan was to use the Nordiques to launch TVA Sports. Since the Nordiques didn't happen TVA Sports never really took off. Right now they are sharings NHL rights with Rogers (Sportsnet).

There are 3 telecom giants in Canada and all 3 of them have the exact same business model (they own plenty of traditional media and they have their own internet + cell phone networks).

Bell - TSN (EN), RDS (FR)
Rogers - Sportsnet (EN)
Quebecor - TVA Sports (FR)

All 3 lose money with their traditional media but the rest of their business is profitable. That's why I don't know what would have happened with the Nords. Rogers still make plenty of money with the Leafs.

With how Covid impacted the non Leafs/Habs teams (and even them, just to a much lesser extent), it is pretty safe to say the org would have been losing money and having a negative impact on the companies as a whole. With how traditional TV is doing, we'd have two fairly major drags. We see with the Jets having their own money issues with the richest man in Canada feeling it... I think it is pretty safe to assume Quebec would have significant issues too.

 

[Balthazar]

With how Covid impacted the non Leafs/Habs teams (and even them, just to a much lesser extent), it is pretty safe to say the org would have been losing money and having a negative impact on the companies as a whole. With how traditional TV is doing, we'd have two fairly major drags. We see with the Jets having their own money issues with the richest man in Canada feeling it... I think it is pretty safe to assume Quebec would have significant issues too.

The Jets lost thousands of season ticket holders which is why they are losing money according to the owner.

Winnipeg's #1 problem is the unattractiveness of the market for NHL players. When you rely on gate revenue that's a major issue.

Quebec would be in the same boat which is the main reason why I don't believe the Nords would succeed long term.

 

[henchman21]

The Jets lost thousands of season ticket holders which is why they are losing money according to the owner.

Winnipeg's #1 problem is the unattractiveness of the market for NHL players. When you rely on gate revenue that's a major issue.

Quebec would be in the same boat which is the main reason why I don't believe the Nords would succeed long term.

They'd suffer the same sorts of problems... just likely with even less money behind them.

Covid kicked off Winnipeg's issues with tickets... now they can't make it up, and the team is aging out to the point where a rebuild it needed. Where it is unsure if they can afford to even do that (which I think explains their moves over the past two years).

 

[CobraAcesS]

They'd suffer the same sorts of problems... just likely with even less money behind them.

Covid kicked off Winnipeg's issues with tickets... now they can't make it up, and the team is aging out to the point where a rebuild it needed. Where it is unsure if they can afford to even do that (which I think explains their moves over the past two years).

I wonder why more teams don't embrace what happens with Vegas, and Seattle, and then seeing a team like STL win with major depth.

If you can get the right mix of a deep team you can go far, or even win. Especially with the right coach.

Seems like what Winnipeg is trying now to an extent.

 

[henchman21]

I wonder why more teams don't embrace what happens with Vegas, and Seattle, and then seeing a team like STL win with major depth.

If you can get the right mix of a deep team you can go far, or even win. Especially with the right coach.

Seems like what Winnipeg is trying now to an extent.

It still took Vegas making moves for a 1D, 1W, and 1C to win... St Louis is more of an exception rather than a rule. That was kind of a lightning in a bottle situation IMO.

Deep teams can make noise, but they don't tend to win it all. Then typically as contracts expire, those depth players need raises... which tests the limits of the depth over time. Just like with Vegas, they were a very deep team but as they've had to try to find ways to solve the roster issues, that depth goes away and they fall to a more normal setup.

I typically don't think the pure depth is a model that can survive for more than 2-3-4 seasons. So you might get a few good runs and then you end up on the other paths anyway.

I do think Winnipeg is trying that and I think it is out of desperation. They simply can't afford a full tear down and rebuild. If they lose their attendance, that team is moved within 5 years.... they know that. So staying in the murky middle and working towards depth hoping to catch lightning in a bottle keeps the team in Winnipeg and viable.

 

[Balthazar]

I wonder why more teams don't embrace what happens with Vegas, and Seattle, and then seeing a team like STL win with major depth.

If you can get the right mix of a deep team you can go far, or even win. Especially with the right coach.

Seems like what Winnipeg is trying now to an extent.

Many teams took that "refuse to rebuild" route.

Montreal (until recently), Minnesota and Jackets have been doing it for as long as I remember. Boston too.

 

[Balthazar]

It still took Vegas making moves for a 1D, 1W, and 1C to win... St Louis is more of an exception rather than a rule. That was kind of a lightning in a bottle situation IMO.

Deep teams can make noise, but they don't tend to win it all. Then typically as contracts expire, those depth players need raises... which tests the limits of the depth over time. Just like with Vegas, they were a very deep team but as they've had to try to find ways to solve the roster issues, that depth goes away and they fall to a more normal setup.

I typically don't think the pure depth is a model that can survive for more than 2-3-4 seasons. So you might get a few good runs and then you end up on the other paths anyway.

I do think Winnipeg is trying that and I think it is out of desperation. They simply can't afford a full tear down and rebuild. If they lose their attendance, that team is moved within 5 years.... they know that. So staying in the murky middle and working towards depth hoping to catch lightning in a bottle keeps the team in Winnipeg and viable.

People thought for decades that the Habs would never rebuild because the fans and media wouldn't accept it. Turns out that they were very wrong.

Chances are fans in Winnipeg would rather have a full rebuild (if explained properly) than an older team that fights for the last wildcard spot every year.

 

[CobraAcesS]

It still took Vegas making moves for a 1D, 1W, and 1C to win... St Louis is more of an exception rather than a rule. That was kind of a lightning in a bottle situation IMO.

Deep teams can make noise, but they don't tend to win it all. Then typically as contracts expire, those depth players need raises... which tests the limits of the depth over time. Just like with Vegas, they were a very deep team but as they've had to try to find ways to solve the roster issues, that depth goes away and they fall to a more normal setup.

I typically don't think the pure depth is a model that can survive for more than 2-3-4 seasons. So you might get a few good runs and then you end up on the other paths anyway.

I do think Winnipeg is trying that and I think it is out of desperation. They simply can't afford a full tear down and rebuild. If they lose their attendance, that team is moved within 5 years.... they know that. So staying in the murky middle and working towards depth hoping to catch lightning in a bottle keeps the team in Winnipeg and viable.

Yeah, I can see that, and at least I knew you'd know what I meant on Vegas's first run lol.

It has kept CBJ at least relevant for a long time. Which is also why that last year they had star power they needed to go for it. A Cup can cement a team to the ground.

Makes me wonder if Pitt has a prayer in hell, but I also think to myself how everyone underestimated that Euro team of old dudes in the World's. They need Phil now if they really want to bring the old dudes vibe lmao.

 

[henchman21]

People thought for decades that the Habs would never rebuild because the fans and media wouldn't accept it. Turns out that they were very wrong.

Chances are fans in Winnipeg would rather have a full rebuild (if explained properly) than an older team that fights for the last wildcard spot every year.

Montreal and Winnipeg are apples and oranges as markets. Montreal doesn't need any money and they have such a backlog of fans, they can have an exodus and still sell out most nights. They had a terrible team last year and still averaged over 21k fans. Winnipeg has an average year and dipped to 14k with next year looking like it'll be under 14k with ease... and they are absurdly more reliant on the gate revenues. If they had a bottom 5 team for 2 years, they'd be bankrupt. It is just wildly different situations.

Yeah, I can see that, and at least I knew you'd know what I meant on Vegas's first run lol.

It has kept CBJ at least relevant for a long time. Which is also why that last year they had star power they needed to go for it. A Cup can cement a team to the ground.

Makes me wonder if Pitt has a prayer in hell, but I also think to myself how everyone underestimated that Euro team of old dudes in the World's. They need Phil now if they really want to bring the old dudes vibe lmao.

I took it as winning a Cup sort of building. Building depth and just keeping a franchise a float, it is a perfectly viable way. Just when you take your shots, you may get a year or two at most to really go for it (and I stand by the mistake Columbus made was not going all in the season prior to get a 2 year run instead of 1). It keeps teams financially viable and operating, and yeah that is what WInnipeg is gearing towards. Sadly, not even in today's NHL can any team win a Cup.

Pitt will be fun to watch... a super old team with a collection of superstars from 2013.

 

[LOFIN]

Many teams took that "refuse to rebuild" route.

Montreal (until recently), Minnesota and Jackets have been doing it for as long as I remember. Boston too.

And look how it's turning up for Montreal. Are Slafkovsky and Reinbacher really going to be stars for them? Tear-down rebuild sounds nice in theory, but you still need to have:
- luck in the lottery
- luck in the draft class
- draft well (which Montreal usually doesn't)

If it would work as easily as in theory (tank and suck for few years, get some stars through the draft and be great again) I'm pretty sure most owners would be onboard with that. But it doesn't work that way in real life does it. Tanking doesn't always work, or the timelines are vastly different.

 

[henchman21]

And look how it's turning up for Montreal. Are Slafkovsky and Reinbacher really going to be stars for them? Tear-down rebuild sounds nice in theory, but you still need to have:
- luck in the lottery
- luck in the draft class
- draft well (which Montreal usually doesn't)

Reinbacher will be.

 

[LOFIN]

Reinbacher will be.

I don't know enough about him, but seems like he will be a good #1D. But still probably not Norris-level. They had a potential superstar in Michkov out there for the taking. Yet they passed on him.

 

[henchman21]

I don't know enough about him, but seems like he will be a good #1D. But still probably not Norris-level. They had a potential superstar in Michkov out there for the taking. Yet they passed on him.

There are plenty of questions about Michkov and that's why he dropped. Reinbacher at this stage in his development is ahead of any defender in Europe outside of Dahlin in the past 10 years. Going back further you really only add Hedman since the lockout. That doesn't mean he's bound to be a superstar, but I don't think a lot of people realize just how good he was last year or his -1 year. They are some of the best European development years we've seen.

 

[LOFIN]

There are plenty of questions about Michkov and that's why he dropped. Reinbacher at this stage in his development is ahead of any defender in Europe outside of Dahlin in the past 10 years. Going back further you really only add Hedman since the lockout. That doesn't mean he's bound to be a superstar, but I don't think a lot of people realize just how good he was last year or his -1 year. They are some of the best European development years we've seen.

Questions about Michkov are related to the current world affairs and his commitment to the KHL for few more years. The latter shouldn't be a problem considering how lacklustre Montreal is with their development.

Fact is, 2 years ago Michkov and Bedard were neck in neck. Hell, some scouts had Michkov before Bedard. There is potential for the next generation of Sid/Ovie rivalry here. Yet Montreal passed on it (so did few other teams TBH).

 

[henchman21]

Questions about Michkov are related to the current world affairs and his commitment to the KHL for few more years. The latter shouldn't be a problem considering how lacklustre Montreal is with their development.

Fact is, 2 years ago Michkov and Bedard were neck in neck. Hell, some scouts had Michkov before Bedard. There is potential for the next generation of Sid/Ovie rivalry here. Yet Montreal passed on it (so did few other teams TBH).

There are genuine questions on coachability, attitude, skating, size and defensive effort beyond his contract and nationality.

Sean Day and Joe Veleno were both exceptional status players who were projected top 5 when they were 16. Day has barely made an impact in the AHL and Veleno is a low end 3rd liner. Success at 16/17 doesn't equate to success at 25. There have been tons of guys who were projected top 10 picks in their -1 years only to never really make an impact. I wouldn't use things from 2 years ago to assert they are all equal later.

 

[LOFIN]

There are genuine questions on coachability, attitude, skating, size and defensive effort beyond his contract and nationality.

Sean Day and Joe Veleno were both exceptional status players who were projected top 5 when they were 16. Day has barely made an impact in the AHL and Veleno is a low end 3rd liner. Success at 16/17 doesn't equate to success at 25. There have been tons of guys who were projected top 10 picks in their -1 years only to never really make an impact. I wouldn't use things from 2 years ago to assert they are all equal later.

Sure, there are questionmarks with everybody.

I think he fell to 7th not because he other players have passed him in the years leading up to the draft, but because of the current world situation and general ability to scout Russian players.

Now granted, Arizona did pick up a Russian (Simashev) before Michkov, but that was an off the board pick anyway.