Around the League - 2023 Offseason Edition

[Hasbro]

Someday you’ll get it. Just not yet.

I predicted before the season when Dubas got sent packing this off season that perception would shift to he was held back on the job. Where was I wrong?

 

[redacted]

Expect today to be the final news drop day for a while. Gary hates when when release news during the Cup final, so we will probably see a bunch of announcements. Tomorrow we also get the state of the NHL press conference. The words on the revenue will be key to watch. 5.5b and under, bad and very bad for the cap. 5.6b on pace and a good sign we see the escrow paid off soon. 5.7+b would be an incredibly good sign.

 

[redacted]

Get ready for the Arizona to SLC to REALLY pick up steam now....

32 Thoughts: The Podcast

Hockey fans already know the name, but this is not the blog. From Sportsnet, 32 Thoughts: The Podcast with NHL Insider Elliotte Friedman & Kyle Bukauskas is a weekly deep dive into the biggest news and interviews from the hockey world.

www.sportsnet.ca

(I'd be personally thrilled to have Ryan Smith in the NHL... he'd be perfect for the league)

Also this:



Huge for the NHL, but we will see if Diamond now cuts contracts or if they pay up.

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

Totally agreed, I think a lot of it comes with being "humbled" when entering the league and knowing that you gotta be a good teammate, but more importantly, a good professional (level of maturity). Or you become confident in your abilities by making the big leagues and that confidence surpasses to the point of arrogance/pride (like you see in DeAngelo, Zadorov, and soon-to-be Byram). I absolutely agree that more players become humble and professional (too much to lose for them) when growing from 18 to 25 than becoming arrogant. Avs scouts were just way too cautious.

I love this comparison. Not the DeAngelo since he's a different level. But the Byram and Z. Spot on.

 

[Pokecheque]

I predicted before the season when Dubas got sent packing this off season that perception would shift to he was held back on the job. Where was I wrong?

And all these excuses (ownership interference, etc.) don't ever get applied to GMs and coaches who are perceived to be something other than "computer boys"?

As far as excuses for Dubas go, facts are facts, you can discount them all you want but that doesn't invalidate them. You can choose to believe me or not but I was honestly surprised that Shanahan was far more meddlesome than we were initially led to believe. That said, a lot of us, including me, have been plenty critical of Dubas. For instance, the trade for Matt Murray has turned out to be objectively terrible.

And I will point out one more time until you get it--the team you root for is every bit as much about "statwhacking" as the Leafs, if not more so because the owner has taken the extra step to integrate it into other areas of the KSE organization, not just the Avs.

It's funny, you seem to have a good mind about hockey, sports, and culture in general. Just seems like the subject of analytics is your weak spot. The mere mention of Dubas or anyone who's perceived as an analytics-driven executive causes you to start frothing at the mouth.

 

[LOFIN]

For instance, the trade for Matt Murray has turned out to be objectively terrible

Goaltending has been the Achilles heel of Dubas. Just absolutely horrible management at that position. Which should terrify the Pens fans.

Needs to be pointed out though, despite what a mess it has been, goaltending has never been the issue they haven't been able to overcome the obstacles in the playoffs. The issues have been elsewhere.

 

[redacted]

@Hasbro Dubas has said nothing about his time in Toronto negatively. You've sidetracked your original statement of "Just had his lickspittle in The Athletic and all his Stans do it for him. "Shannahan was making all the trades"." to stats people making excuses for him... which they are. But your link is not you 'calling' it... "So stat whacker excuse when he gets fired: "The coach didn't listen" or "He never really used analytics."?" That's not what the stat crowd is saying at all. They are saying he didn't have full authority to run how he saw fit. Which whether or not you think it would work, is quite clear. This isn't about the coaches and it isn't about Dubas not using stats. Also, it wasn't a leap at all to think Dubas would get fired... writing was on the wall that if they didn't have a deep run he was gone.

@Pokecheque I'd hope you'd agree that Dubas simply didn't do enough to be successful for the expectations placed on the Leafs. In that sense he certainly failed. There are also people running to Dubas' aid and protecting him. I'd think you'd agree that his run wasn't perfect and had plenty of mistakes, at least some of those were stat driven mistakes.

The truth is in the middle to me here. Dubas didn't reach the expectations in Toronto and that is a failure that he has to learn from. Dubas didn't have full authority in building the club the way he wanted. That much is also very clear. To me, Dubas did a solid to good job. Toronto's drafting and development has been strong. One of the strengths of the organization since Dubas came in. They've also done a solid job of finding depth on the cheap. They have a high end group of forwards with a couple elite players. Now I think a reliance on older depth Cup chasing has been way too high. They've failed in net. They also put themselves in a tough cap situation the last 3 years (though the next 3-4 are looking great).

I would argue Toronto was not aggressive enough early in Dubas' tenure, and by the time they got aggressive, they were backed into a short (non-existent?) window with a bad cap situation. That is a failure on Dubas, but I wouldn't say that makes him a bad GM... just one that made some mistakes learning on the job (we are experiencing teething pains with CMac here). Now I'm very curious as to how Dubas does in Pittsburgh. He has full run of what he wants to do, so ultimately he is in control of his own legacy fully here.

One thing that I will say with absolute certainty. Dubas is a great person and a great leader. I know plenty of people in the hockey world and nobody has a bad word to say about him in that manner. They might not think he's the greatest evaluator or negotiator... but everyone believes he's a great person. Dubas is not the source of dropping crap in the media or adding to the drama. That is not how he operates.

 

[PAZ]

@Hasbro Dubas has said nothing about his time in Toronto negatively. You've sidetracked your original statement of "Just had his lickspittle in The Athletic and all his Stans do it for him. "Shannahan was making all the trades"." to stats people making excuses for him... which they are. But your link is not you 'calling' it... "So stat whacker excuse when he gets fired: "The coach didn't listen" or "He never really used analytics."?" That's not what the stat crowd is saying at all. They are saying he didn't have full authority to run how he saw fit. Which whether or not you think it would work, is quite clear. This isn't about the coaches and it isn't about Dubas not using stats. Also, it wasn't a leap at all to think Dubas would get fired... writing was on the wall that if they didn't have a deep run he was gone.

@Pokecheque I'd hope you'd agree that Dubas simply didn't do enough to be successful for the expectations placed on the Leafs. In that sense he certainly failed. There are also people running to Dubas' aid and protecting him. I'd think you'd agree that his run wasn't perfect and had plenty of mistakes, at least some of those were stat driven mistakes.

The truth is in the middle to me here. Dubas didn't reach the expectations in Toronto and that is a failure that he has to learn from. Dubas didn't have full authority in building the club the way he wanted. That much is also very clear. To me, Dubas did a solid to good job. Toronto's drafting and development has been strong. One of the strengths of the organization since Dubas came in. They've also done a solid job of finding depth on the cheap. They have a high end group of forwards with a couple elite players. Now I think a reliance on older depth Cup chasing has been way too high. They've failed in net. They also put themselves in a tough cap situation the last 3 years (though the next 3-4 are looking great).

I would argue Toronto was not aggressive enough early in Dubas' tenure, and by the time they got aggressive, they were backed into a short (non-existent?) window with a bad cap situation. That is a failure on Dubas, but I wouldn't say that makes him a bad GM... just one that made some mistakes learning on the job (we are experiencing teething pains with CMac here). Now I'm very curious as to how Dubas does in Pittsburgh. He has full run of what he wants to do, so ultimately he is in control of his own legacy fully here.

One thing that I will say with absolute certainty. Dubas is a great person and a great leader. I know plenty of people in the hockey world and nobody has a bad word to say about him in that manner. They might not think he's the greatest evaluator or negotiator... but everyone believes he's a great person. Dubas is not the source of dropping crap in the media or adding to the drama. That is not how he operates.

I think this point is huge - especially with the way Dubas putting an emphasis on analytics and 'progressive' methods. He seems like the type of guy that can reform an entire front office by putting a bunch of systems in place that put an emphasis on analytics. Even with Dubas gone, Toronto should still have good drafting/development moving forward.

Now obviously it just takes one dinosaur to waltz in and destroy all of that, but I think Shanahan is smarter than that. I would love if Dubas joined the Avs organization for a few years, because god knows we need help with drafting/development and putting something in place that relies more on gut feelings, eye tests, and the scout that hammers the table the loudest to get his guy.

 

[redacted]

I think this point is huge - especially with the way Dubas putting an emphasis on analytics and 'progressive' methods. He seems like the type of guy that can reform an entire front office by putting a bunch of systems in place that put an emphasis on analytics. Even with Dubas gone, Toronto should still have good drafting/development moving forward.

Now obviously it just takes one dinosaur to waltz in and destroy all of that, but I think Shanahan is smarter than that. I would love if Dubas joined the Avs organization for a few years, because god knows we need help with drafting/development and putting something in place that relies more on gut feelings, eye tests, and the scout that hammers the table the loudest to get his guy.

He's a big picture guy (you could argue to a fault even)... even beyond analytics. Training, skill coaching, sports science, nutrition, etc etc. He reformed a lot of things in Toronto that you wouldn't otherwise see. There has been a lot of work and foundation laid there and how they continue to approach those areas will be interesting to watch. How he expands or contracts those in Pittsburgh will also be interesting to watch. FSG is going to give him everything he needs. They are the perfect owners for a mind like his. Where this goes is anybody's guess, but the results of it will be impactful league wide either way.

 

[Pokecheque]

Goaltending has been the Achilles heel of Dubas. Just absolutely horrible management at that position. Which should terrify the Pens fans.

Needs to be pointed out though, despite what a mess it has been, goaltending has never been the issue they haven't been able to overcome the obstacles in the playoffs. The issues have been elsewhere.

Well, it's kinda weird because he inherited Freddy's contract and he was decent (always had an absolutely ROTTEN start to every regular season) but faltered in games 7 and of course, got hurt a lot. But then he went to Carolina and was mostly good, in fact in this year's playoffs he was phenomenal, just not quite as good as the guy on the other end of the ice last round.

Campbell ended up being a worthy gamble but unfortunately they pegged him as a 1A instead of a 1B and that's when things went wrong there. Both Murray and Mrazek were NOT worthy gambles. Samsonov, surprisingly, was but he got hurt. So now it's likely down to the homegrown option, Woll. If he's a legit starter or at least a 1B that solves a lot of issues. Hutchinson, well, poor guy just isn't really an NHL goalie, as we all saw.

I feel like if Garret Sparks had actually panned out a lot of these issues would've been quieted a great deal. The Leafs' real struggles weren't necessarily to fill that starter position, it was the backup that gave them all kinds of grief. As problematic as Frankie was given his health issues, he offered a ton more stability as a #2 than a lot of the guys who went through the Leafs.

 

[Pokecheque]

@Hasbro Dubas has said nothing about his time in Toronto negatively. You've sidetracked your original statement of "Just had his lickspittle in The Athletic and all his Stans do it for him. "Shannahan was making all the trades"." to stats people making excuses for him... which they are. But your link is not you 'calling' it... "So stat whacker excuse when he gets fired: "The coach didn't listen" or "He never really used analytics."?" That's not what the stat crowd is saying at all. They are saying he didn't have full authority to run how he saw fit. Which whether or not you think it would work, is quite clear. This isn't about the coaches and it isn't about Dubas not using stats. Also, it wasn't a leap at all to think Dubas would get fired... writing was on the wall that if they didn't have a deep run he was gone.

@Pokecheque I'd hope you'd agree that Dubas simply didn't do enough to be successful for the expectations placed on the Leafs. In that sense he certainly failed. There are also people running to Dubas' aid and protecting him. I'd think you'd agree that his run wasn't perfect and had plenty of mistakes, at least some of those were stat driven mistakes.

The truth is in the middle to me here. Dubas didn't reach the expectations in Toronto and that is a failure that he has to learn from. Dubas didn't have full authority in building the club the way he wanted. That much is also very clear. To me, Dubas did a solid to good job. Toronto's drafting and development has been strong. One of the strengths of the organization since Dubas came in. They've also done a solid job of finding depth on the cheap. They have a high end group of forwards with a couple elite players. Now I think a reliance on older depth Cup chasing has been way too high. They've failed in net. They also put themselves in a tough cap situation the last 3 years (though the next 3-4 are looking great).

I would argue Toronto was not aggressive enough early in Dubas' tenure, and by the time they got aggressive, they were backed into a short (non-existent?) window with a bad cap situation. That is a failure on Dubas, but I wouldn't say that makes him a bad GM... just one that made some mistakes learning on the job (we are experiencing teething pains with CMac here). Now I'm very curious as to how Dubas does in Pittsburgh. He has full run of what he wants to do, so ultimately he is in control of his own legacy fully here.

One thing that I will say with absolute certainty. Dubas is a great person and a great leader. I know plenty of people in the hockey world and nobody has a bad word to say about him in that manner. They might not think he's the greatest evaluator or negotiator... but everyone believes he's a great person. Dubas is not the source of dropping crap in the media or adding to the drama. That is not how he operates.

Agreed on all fronts.

 

[Hasbro]

And all these excuses (ownership interference, etc.) don't ever get applied to GMs and coaches who are perceived to be something other than "computer boys"?

As far as excuses for Dubas go, facts are facts, you can discount them all you want but that doesn't invalidate them. You can choose to believe me or not but I was honestly surprised that Shanahan was far more meddlesome than we were initially led to believe. That said, a lot of us, including me, have been plenty critical of Dubas. For instance, the trade for Matt Murray has turned out to be objectively terrible.

And I will point out one more time until you get it--the team you root for is every bit as much about "statwhacking" as the Leafs, if not more so because the owner has taken the extra step to integrate it into other areas of the KSE organization, not just the Avs.

It's funny, you seem to have a good mind about hockey, sports, and culture in general. Just seems like the subject of analytics is your weak spot. The mere mention of Dubas or anyone who's perceived as an analytics-driven executive causes you to start frothing at the mouth.

I don’t any Hextall apologia. Yet it’s the children that are wrong whenever one of these Theo Epstein wannabes flames out.

I also doubt Shanny had much to do with the disastrous Kadri trade since Kerfoot was statistical fool’s gold we knew him to be and Duba’s mouthpiece at The Athletic had the audacity to proclaim him a better asset than Kadri.

What I’m missing is what all he’s did To improve the Leafs. While he was there they hit on some high picks and never uncovered any diamonds in the rough.

I am thrilled he got a new job. It’s nice to have a MacSakic exploit in a fresh setting. And when he gets fired in five years he’ll get a pass because the big 3 was in his way.

Sucks for Robert McNamara, I feel like he’s this close to having his work rehabilitated

 

[Pokecheque]

I don’t any Hextall apologia. Yet it’s the children that are wrong whenever one of these Theo Epstein wannabes flames out.

I also doubt Shanny had much to do with the disastrous Kadri trade since Kerfoot was statistical fool’s gold we knew him to be and Duba’s mouthpiece at The Athletic had the audacity to proclaim him a better asset than Kadri.

What I’m missing is what all he’s did To improve the Leafs. While he was there they hit on some high picks and never uncovered any diamonds in the rough.

I am thrilled he got a new job. It’s nice to have a MacSakic exploit in a fresh setting. And when he gets fired in five years he’ll get a pass because the big 3 was in his way.

Sucks for Robert McNamara, I feel like he’s this close to having his work rehabilitated

I dunno, I personally thought Hextall was jobbed by Philly at the time (though that didn't excuse that terrible contract he signed the corpse of Michal Neuvirth to) and figured he'd be rarin' to go in Pittsburgh. And there too he got a bit of a raw deal, brought in to possibly break up the core when new ownership swooped in before the ink was dry on his contract to tell him no and essentially force out the guy who hired him in the first place. But even then he made some patently awful deals that most everyone hated even at the time. Turns out you can be a terrible GM and get screwed by The Man at the same time.

Who's another "Theo Epstein wannabe" out there who has an army of sycophants at his back as you seem to believe so staunchly? Chayka? I've ragged on him since Day One.

Go read Henchy's post to see all the good (and bad) Dubas has done in Toronto.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[redacted]

I need this

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Dude...the NHL missed a big oportunity with RR not being involved somehow with the Sens. Could you imagine Deadpool interviewing Patrick Roy about opposing teams?

 

[Metallo]

Someone with too much time on their hands could make a quick list of what would have been our picks in the last 10-12 years had they done that. Maybe just the first 2 rounds.

I would bet that the Avs don't "beat the market".

 

[Pokecheque]

OMG Yeeeeeeessssssss please make it happen

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

I need this

OMG Yeeeeeeessssssss please make it happen

I think Roy would love Brady as his lead guy.

 

[Hasbro]

Who's another "Theo Epstein wannabe" out there who has an army of sycophants at his back as you seem to believe so staunchly? Chayka? I've ragged on him since Day One.

You mean "Top 3 GM Chayka"? When he took the pipe the refrain was "He wasn't really a stats guy", despite having a business dedicated to that.

Old Corsi Swarmer Eakins in there.

Despite the torches and pitchforks outside the Avalanche's Front Office, I haven't heard Arik Parnass' name from the mob yet.

In the NFL have a look after Sachi Brown got fired in Cleveland after an 0-16 season. Same excuses: interference from the old heads in the front office undid him, rather than not finding a QB.

 

[Balthazar]

I think Roy would love Brady as his lead guy.

I said it before but Roy and the Sens is a perfect fit. That said, I don't think ownership should decide who's going to be the coach. That's a hockey decision...they can pick the GM but not the coach.

 

[Pokecheque]

I said it before but Roy and the Sens is a perfect fit. That said, I don't think ownership should decide who's going to be the coach. That's a hockey decision...they can pick the GM but not the coach.

Eh it’s not that big a deal if the coach comes first. In fact, if it’s Roy, they probably should hire him before the GM.

 

[Alienblood]

Babcock back in as Blue Jackets coach

 

[The Abusement Park]

You mean "Top 3 GM Chayka"? When he took the pipe the refrain was "He wasn't really a stats guy", despite having a business dedicated to that.

Old Corsi Swarmer Eakins in there.

Despite the torches and pitchforks outside the Avalanche's Front Office, I haven't heard Arik Parnass' name from the mob yet.

In the NFL have a look after Sachi Brown got fired in Cleveland after an 0-16 season. Same excuses: interference from the old heads in the front office undid him, rather than not finding a QB.

Some real confirmation bias you got going there.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Babcock back in as Blue Jackets coach