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Around the League - 2023/24

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dahrougem2 said:
The Avs and Devils have relatively similar underlying numbers in terms of scoring chances against and high danger chances against. I don't think you'd be suggesting the Avs have to also improve their D core?

They are only ahead of Ottawa in terms of all situations SV%. It is the biggest issue by far.
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No I'd probably say that's yet another example not to rely on metrics alone to define a team.

I'd probably also point out how mistake prone the entire Avs D core has been this year, and cite that and the Avs star defenseman as another reason not to define teams based on metrics alone.

What's the difference between Jersey and the Avs if both teams score goals well, both have superstar forwards, both have had sub par goaltending, and the Devils are 17 points behind the Avs?
 
Foppa2118 said:
No I'd probably say that's yet another example not to rely on metrics alone to define a team.

I'd probably also point out how mistake prone the entire Avs D core has been this year, and cite that and the Avs star defenseman as another reason not to define teams based on metrics alone.

What's the difference between Jersey and the Avs if both teams score goals well, both have superstar forwards, both have had sub par goaltending, and the Devils are 17 points behind the Avs?
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The difference is the Devils don't have Nathan MacKinnon going nuts this season.

Metrics tend to paint a fairly accurate picture about a team come season's end.

The Avs have also scored 30 more goals than NJD. I think it's been a down year for the Devils but no doubt in my mind that team is in the playoffs if they get even average goaltending.
 
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Foppa2118 said:
No I'd probably say that's yet another example not to rely on metrics alone to define a team.

I'd probably also point out how mistake prone the entire Avs D core has been this year, and cite that and the Avs star defenseman as another reason not to define teams based on metrics alone.

What's the difference between Jersey and the Avs if both teams score goals well, both have superstar forwards, both have had sub par goaltending, and the Devils are 17 points behind the Avs?
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I mean goaltending again is the biggest difference. Avs are -7.8 on goals saved above average whereas the Devils are -23. The Avs goaltending has been not great, but the Devils has been 3x worse.
 
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Foppa2118 said:
That's because this was about New Jersey not Vancouver. I agree there's a good chance Vancouver is probably overachieving like the Avs in 13-14. This is that groups first taste of success.



I don't agree that Fitzgerald fires his friend if he thinks goaltending is the only problem. Fitzgerald should be fired for not improving the D core in the summer after making the playoffs.
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It’s the why behind the 13-14 Avs overachievement that makes it a strange comparison. All the analytics showed that Avs team was getting unsustainable results and riding more or less sheer luck with terrible underlying numbers. The Avs were primed to regress to the mean and not be a playoff team let alone a division winner

That isn’t what’s happening with the Devils. Their underlying numbers suggest they are underachieving. If they regressed to the mean they should get better. Woodcroft got fired because of terrible goaltending and Edmonton started getting the results the analytics suggested they should all along if they weren’t getting league worst goaltending. The Devils firing Ruff because they feel like they have to try something to turn things around and hoping it works out like it did for Edmonton isn’t strange
 
I didn't realize the Devils got so much support here, so I'll just respond with this instead of individually.

None of these reasons account for a difference of 17 points between the Avs and Devils, when they both get good offense and have had poor goaltending.

Especially when the context is the Devils being proclaimed as a top contender and a couple levels better than the Avs before the season.

The Devils are 9th in goals and Hughes is a great 1C. 99 points last year, and 57 in 45 games this year. MacKinnon isn't the difference.

Hamilton isn't a great all around D man IMO, he's part of the problem, not the solution. They don't need offense.

They need better defense, (as well as goaltending obviously) on both the D core, and as a team in general because they're a young rebuilding team, still making young mistakes.

Hughes is a good young defenseman, but you clearly have a problem if a 20 year old is leading your team in ice time after one injury. Again, Cale was 3rd at 21.

Defensive play still plays a factor in goalie metrics, even if they try to weed it out.

Avs have the same underlying metrics with an obviously much better D core. That should tell you something about relying solely on metrics.
 
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Remember when they Yotes were having a decent season until 14 losses in a row?

WTF is that shit.

DzmUARH.png
 
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Uh oh. Oilers going on the PP with like 5 minutes left in the 3rd. They might as well get a quick Zamboni around the ice to have a nice surface for OT.
 
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