Around the League - 2022-23 Season Edition

[Peasy]

another day, another decent young player being compared to our superstars

if only we had drafted worse players, we'd have so many steals

Lol, better players than ours have signed much better contracts than our players, but way to deflect.

Can't believe theres still people out there defending the contracts Matthews and Marner got. Its already been 4 years since they have signed them and not one player has come close to the ridiculousness that they both got.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Dubas certainly deserves a lot of critique for getting none of WN, MM or AM on an 8 year deal.

Yeah, that was my biggest disappointment and frustration with each of their deals. Nylander's amount was reasonable. Matthews and Marner were given top dollar without the top term to follow it. We are having this conversation of their renewals two years too soon.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Lol, better players than ours have signed much better contracts than our players, but way to deflect.

Can't believe theres still people out there defending the contracts Matthews and Marner got.

I'm less defending the Matthews and Marner contracts and more laughing at the notion that Cole Caufield is remotely comparable in any way. He's not even a top 50 forward in the league but hey he signed for 8 years what a steal! He put up the same PPG this year as Alex Killorn, sucks defensively and is tiny enough that injuries will be a bigger concern than most. He is not at all relevant to legitimate superstars like Matthews and Marner.

 

[Peasy]

I'm less defending the Matthews and Marner contracts and more laughing at the notion that Cole Caufield is remotely comparable in any way. He's not even a top 50 forward in the league but hey he signed for 8 years what a steal!

Jack hughes 8 years, Tim Stutzle 8 years, Brady Tkachuk 7 years, McDavid 8 years, Drais 8 years, Eichel 8 years.

Yet Matthews and Marner somehow ended up with the shortest term, and most dollars compared to every comparable in the league.

The point is, nearly every other team out there is capable at locking up their young core to long term deals are fair cap hits.

 

[TheDoldrums]

The point is, nearly every other team out there is capable at locking up their young core to long term deals are fair cap hits.

Well our new GM also failed to do that with Matt Tkachuk so the outlook is grim!

 

[Voodoo Child]

I dislike the Matthews and Marner contracts - especially the Marner one - as much as everyone else but Cole Caufield who isn’t even tall for a woman, gets injured a ton and has a career high of 26 goals gets nearly 8. He’s the definition of a player you bridge - 2x4.5 or 5.

Come on now.

 

[LBloor]

Learning from the drafting of Toronto under Kyle Dubas

What does the past say about what Kyle Dubas likes to do (and avoid) in the NHL draft?

www.pensburgh.com

Now that Kyle Dubas is getting to work in Pittsburgh to shape and guide the future of the Penguins, what better time to look back at his history in Toronto? Today we’ll dive into the history and performance of Dubas in the NHL draft and later on in the week dig into the trades and free agency signings that he has done in the past.

Dubas was the full general manager from 2018-2023, so we will concentrate mainly on that, though it is worth pointing out that he is often credited in his stint as assistant general manager to help make decisions to select players like Mitch Marner, Travis Dermott, Joseph Woll, Timothy Lilejgren and others in the years prior while he was an assistant GM for the Maple Leafs.

As GM, Dubas made 35 total draft picks for Toronto over the years, an average of 7.0 per draft. This amount is skewed higher from the 2020 draft, when the Leafs had six total picks late in the draft’s final two rounds.

................

While his tendencies can be all over the board, some trends and tenets of Dubas to boiled down into nice, little bite-sized bullet points would be:

• Heavy on forwards early in the draft, with no particular preference in what area in the world they come from

• Lots of right handed defensemen

• Eventually an emphasis on US players later in the draft

• Probably drafting a goalie at some point, but only during Round 4 or later

• More of a European haul (especially in Russia) than most other NHL teams in the modern era

• Lack of frequent first round picks, but keeping second rounders

• Despite a willingness to get a big guy like Matthew Knies, general forward profile of draftees trends towards smaller, higher-skilled type of players. Pittsburgh kid Ty Voit (fifth round pick in 2021) could be perfect example of that- has blossomed into the OHL’s second-leading scorer in 2022-23 with 105 points, despite being listed at 5’9 and 151 pounds. Not all Toronto players are that small, but under Dubas they’ve definitely been looking for the “next Jake Guentzel” types who might be small on draft day but have high ceilings for the future.

• Generally defensively, Toronto was compiling puck moving defensemen (Sandin, Durzi) with skating/IQ qualities over physical profiles.

• Trading down to accumulate more picks has been common for Dubas with examples in 2022 (moving back in the first round to ditch Petr Mrazek’s bad contract and again dealing back in the third round), and again 2020 (when he traded back in the second round), 2018 (in the first round) and as an interim GM in 2015 Dubas traded down twice in the first round. [/SIZE]Save for dealing a 2023-fourth rounder to get back into the fourth round in 2022, trading up hasn’t been a strategy often used.

Mark Hunter was responsible for Marner

 

[Fogelhund]

""

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Jack hughes 8 years, Tim Stutzle 8 years, Brady Tkachuk 7 years, McDavid 8 years, Drais 8 years, Eichel 8 years.

Yet Matthews and Marner somehow ended up with the shortest term, and most dollars compared to every comparable in the league.

The point is, nearly every other team out there is capable at locking up their young core to long term deals are fair cap hits.

Yet Rantanen, Gaudreau, Pastrnak, Larkin, Aho, Seguin, Benn, and Barkov all signed for 5 or 6 years... Never mind Kessel, Malkin, Crosby, Stamkos, Kane, and Toews if you go further back (whereas Kopitar is the only guy of note who signed a 7+ year deal).

There is also the matter of what some of these guys' track records were too... And other than McDavid, none of them really come close to Matthews/Marner.

We could have signed these guys for 8 years. Their cap hits would have been higher than they are now though. Marner's would have probably been in the 11.5 mill range, and Matthews' would be above McDavid's (although that would still be a lower cap percentage at signing). We'll see what Treliving can negotiate, but Marner shouldn't be making more than 11.5 mill on his next deal and Matthews shouldn't be above 13.4 mill (which is probably only ~500k more than he would have made had we given him an 8 year deal post-ELC).

 

[Burnie97]

All the assistants are going to new teams to be the head coach.

It seems likely Leafs are looking to extend Keefe from reports the last couple of days but wouldn't this be the perfect time to clear house?

 

[Fogelhund]

All the assistants are going to new teams to be the head coach.

It seems likely Leafs are looking to extend Keefe from reports the last couple of days but wouldn't this be the perfect time to clear house?

Maybe... if you've got a better replacement in mind.

Then again... get rid of the GM, all of the coaches... nobody really knows the players anymore, so some continuity, with a short leash might be warranted too.

With hindsight, I probably would have fired Shanahan, and Keefe, and kept Dubas.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

All the assistants are going to new teams to be the head coach.

It seems likely Leafs are looking to extend Keefe from reports the last couple of days but wouldn't this be the perfect time to clear house?

To hire who exactly?

We need to replace a PP assistant coach. We already had to do that 2 years ago with our PK coach when Hakstol was poached by Seattle, so that is hardly grounds to replace an entire coaching staff unless Treliving plans on going scorched earth with the roster too (the roster should be the next thing on the firing line if there are big changes).

At best, we may find a guy who is a promising HC candidate who could replace Keefe later on; both in that spot and in the AHL HC spot that opened up (that entire coaching staff deserved to be fired).

 

[Peasy]

Yet Rantanen, Gaudreau, Pastrnak, Larkin, Aho, Seguin, Benn, and Barkov all signed for 5 or 6 years... Never mind Kessel, Malkin, Crosby, Stamkos, Kane, and Toews if you go further back (whereas Kopitar is the only guy of note who signed a 7+ year deal).

There is also the matter of what some of these guys' track records were too... And other than McDavid, none of them really come close to Matthews/Marner.

We could have signed these guys for 8 years. Their cap hits would have been higher than they are now though. Marner's would have probably been in the 11.5 mill range, and Matthews' would be above McDavid's (although that would still be a lower cap percentage at signing). We'll see what Treliving can negotiate, but Marner shouldn't be making more than 11.5 mill on his next deal and Matthews shouldn't be above 13.4 mill (which is probably only ~500k more than he would have made had we given him an 8 year deal post-ELC).

Yeah and look at the 2nd deals those players gave their clubs, all basically 8 year terms.

Theres zero chance Matthews and Mitch sign for 8 years.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Maybe... if you've got a better replacement in mind.

Then again... get rid of the GM, all of the coaches... nobody really knows the players anymore, so some continuity, with a short leash might be warranted too.

With hindsight, I probably would have fired Shanahan, and Keefe, and kept Dubas.

MLSE is too cheap to have that much dead money tied up in guys not working here it seems. Dubas was the only one expiring out of the bunch.

I think Keefe gets the year. If he really sucks, he is fired mid-season and most of these candidates are going to be available anyways (Rangers and Calgary are the only teams off of the top of my head that still needs a HC assuming CBJ goes with Babcock). That jolt has worked well for some in the past and is probably more valuable for this team than a training camp with a new coach. Otherwise, his playoff performance likely dictates whether he gets an extension (unless Treliving really likes him and wants to extend him now).

Unlike Dubas, there is no risk of him choosing to go for a promotion elsewhere (at least in coaching; I guess he could always pull a Trotz). This is about as good as it gets for a coach: Competitive team + high salary. Unless he just hates the market/city/fans, then there is no reason for him to choose to leave.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yeah and look at the 2nd deals those players gave their clubs, all basically 8 year terms.

Theres zero chance Matthews and Mitch sign for 8 years.

That is very presumptive to say unless you have insider knowledge or you have no faith in Treliving.

After all, all of those guys got 8 year terms. Why are our guys any different?

 

[BertCorbeau]

Dubas certainly deserves a lot of critique for getting none of WN, MM or AM on an 8 year deal.

But isn’t that the same core everyone wants traded or blown up?

For example, imagine Marner having 5 yesss left at his cap hit coming off of his most recent playoff struggles and having these calls to trade him with that contract?

I’m not against signing 8 year contracts but the notion that it was a big failure seems misguided.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Bet the under on him lasting the full 7 years. Those post Crosby Malkin years will be dark.

Pens will probably get another generational player in 5-10 years. It's what they do.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

Most of Canada but NHL:

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

But isn’t that the same core everyone wants traded or blown up?

For example, imagine Marner having 5 yesss left at his cap hit coming off of his most recent playoff struggles and having these calls to trade him with that contract?

I’m not against signing 8 year contracts but the notion that it was a big failure seems misguided.

Part of the reasons I'd want to trade them is because their next contract is going to be a raise and we can hardly afford them right now. It's certainly not good for us that the term was shorter given they are all still young,

 

[Gallagbi]

Theres zero chance Matthews and Mitch sign for 8 years.

Tough to be disappointed if we lock each of them up until their early 30s, no?

 

[Buds17]

But isn’t that the same core everyone wants traded or blown up?

For example, imagine Marner having 5 yesss left at his cap hit coming off of his most recent playoff struggles and having these calls to trade him with that contract?

I’m not against signing 8 year contracts but the notion that it was a big failure seems misguided.

Having additional years left on the contracts for those players at least provides the team with a greater amount of time before some potentially tough decisions need to be made. Having fewer years remaining on the contracts also won't necessarily do wonders in the department of trade value ("hockey trades") either if this becomes the path that's ultimately explored.

 

[Stephen]

They only write articles that benefit Dubas, not the Leafs.

I was listening to CJ talk about how Dubas now has a unique opportunity to pursue a championship with Crosby, Malkin and Letang and plan for a rebuild in Pittsburgh and build a unique front office…

Just seems like a funny double standard how the Fenway Group churned and burned through Rutherford and then Burke, Hextall, put handcuffs on each regime to continue pushing to win with Crosby and Malkin, basically giving a no rebuild order, and yet this is somehow a unique opportunity with a progressive ownership group.

Meanwhile, Shanahan outlines to Treliving the Core 4 will likely stay and we get asked how much meddling is in the Leafs President to GM…

It’s just funny how much of a fun house of mirrors this picture of control seems to be depending on which market we’re talking about.

 

[Dekes For Days]

PPG is the metric we use? If that's the case, then Matthews post elc contract was the worse in league history. At time of signing, Matthews had something like 0.85 ppg.

P/GP shouldn't be used exclusively, but it does offer an easy starting point when discussing production, and while not as accurate and representative as other forms, it does lead to the same conclusion in this instance - Caufield was worse through his pre-signing period than all of our stars.

P/GP generally undervalued our stars and their impact relative to their peers, due to the abnormal PP time opportunity they experienced through their pre-signing period compared to pretty much everybody else, but even by P/GP, Matthews is not remotely close to "the worst contract in league history". He was at 0.98 P/GP in his career at time of signing, not 0.85. And by my count, that 0.98 is the 5th best of any player that signed a post-ELC contract in the cap era. And Matthews got the 6th highest value post-ELC contract in the cap era. So not abnormal at all, let alone worst in league history.

I was told in all those Matthews contract threads that *goals* are what's significantly more important.

Matthews' contract was consistent with history by point production, primary point production, and goal production.

Let's also add that Caufield gave up TWO more ufa years

That worse player got paid more because of those 2 extra years, which Montreal was willing to pay for because they're in a rebuild and don't have other immediate considerations. Seems pretty reasonable.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Jack hughes 8 years, Tim Stutzle 8 years, Brady Tkachuk 7 years, McDavid 8 years, Drais 8 years, Eichel 8 years.
Yet Matthews and Marner somehow ended up with the shortest term, and most dollars compared to every comparable in the league.

5 and 6 years is incredibly common for high-end post-ELC contracts, and Matthews and Marner were quite a bit better than all of the players you're mentioning at time of signing (except McDavid, who got more, even after a massive post-negotiation discount), so of course they're going to get more money than them.

Theres zero chance Matthews and Mitch sign for 8 years.

I see nothing to indicate that.

 

[ToneDog]

I dislike the Matthews and Marner contracts - especially the Marner one - as much as everyone else but Cole Caufield who isn’t even tall for a woman, gets injured a ton and has a career high of 26 goals gets nearly 8. He’s the definition of a player you bridge - 2x4.5 or 5.

Come on now.

26 g in 46 games but compared to Robertson, overpay. Not bad unless you have 3 $11m players on the team.