Leafs at Knight
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Safe to say Arizona has the #1 pick pre lotto locked up lol. They might not even get 30 points this year.
GDT: Around the League - 2021/22
- Thread starter uncleben
- Start date
-
Xenforo Cloud will be upgrading us to version 2.3.5 on March 3rd at 12 AM GMT. This version has increased stability and fixes several bugs. We expect downtime for the duration of the update. The admin team will continue to work on existing issues, templates and upgrade all necessary available addons to minimize impact of this new version. Click Here for Updates
- Status
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
- 35,591
- 16,777
I hope Ottawa and MTL go on a heater on some non-Leafs Eastern teams. Take some teams out of the race while putting themselves into the mediocre territory.
Seath The Scaleless
Paledrake
Dallas is the only team without a regulation win
They're too talented to be this bad. I think Bowness needs to go
They're too talented to be this bad. I think Bowness needs to go
They always start slow. Cost them a playoff spot last year, and the team is getting old, but I still expect a run at some point.
Bowness became a really likeable guy for me in their Cup run. Was hoping he'd win.
But for me, he will forever be linked to those God awful Senators expansion team years he was the first coach of, and I always thought he was just a horrible horrible coach. LOL
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
They are?
Not sure they have even one legitimate top line caliber player on the roster anymore, and they don’t have good depth or goaltending either.
BallardEra
Leafs&Caps Since 1982™
Fogelhund
Registered User
- Sep 15, 2007
- 24,410
- 29,552
I guess you could say that he took big leaps, not playing Junior until late, and then a cup of coffee with the Leafs. He had two seasons with the Marlies without much growth, and then a hot streak with the Marlies... it was a bit short of time to really say he'd had a jump in growth, or just a short hot streak. Since that trade in 2020, he's scored a total of 5 goals in the AHL and NHL. So, I don't think 13 goals in 24 games was growth indicative of the player he'd become, or has become.
I also don't really see anything in those articles raving about his great growth, and emergence to be an important NHL contributor... plenty of talk about being a spare body in case of injuries, or maybe a fourth line sub in. But, we should have kept him anyway, as we simply lacked other big body options at the time.
Here is the thing, it appears as though you are getting your knowledge from reading some articles, while a number of us watched him. Nothing really screamed NHL full time player. He was big, and decent speed, and could hit... but really that was it, until that hot streak... but even then, you kind of shrugged your shoulders... and in the NHL, he didn't appear that great. Granted, you need longer than that to establish yourself.
Last 2 seasons + this partial current season:
Dallas top players:
Benn: 32 goals, 79 points in 132 games@ 9,500,000 a season
Seguin: 23 goals, 59 points in 84 games@ 9,850,000 a season
Pavelski: 42 goals, 89 points in 135 games@ 7,000,000 a season
Radulov: 20 goals, 52 points in 83 games@ 6,250,000 a season
Total: 117 goals, 279 points @32,600,000 a season
Toronto Core 4:
Matthews: 93 goals, 156 points in 133 games@ 11,640,250 a season
Tavares: 52 goals, 123 points in 132 games@ 11,000,000 a season
Marner: 39 goals, 147 points in 128 games@ 10,903,000 a season
Nylander: 55 goals, 114 points in 133 games@ 6,962,366 a season
Total: 239 goals, 540 points @40,505,616 a season
Jeez, I know injuries played a part but Seguin and Benn really fell off not long after they signed those big contracts and they dont have a healthy Bishop anymore to cover up all their warts. Just another team that has signed themselves into a bad situation. Leafs are lucky to have the top 4 group they have as they are in the top 3 (maybe 2? havnt worked it out) of the league and are worth the cap hit, thats for sure. Marner has a higher goals/game than Benn and Seguin over this stretch. Incredible.
What in the world is Arizona doing. I just checked cap friendly. They have 53 million in space next year with a lineup of
———. ———- Keller
———. Schmalz ———
———. ———- ———-
Ladd. ———— ————
jake. ———-
Ghost ———-
———. ———-
they only have the rights to haytojn Fischer and cruse.
who is going to sign there? Are they planning on all ufa? You have to ice a team.
———. ———- Keller
———. Schmalz ———
———. ———- ———-
Ladd. ———— ————
jake. ———-
Ghost ———-
———. ———-
they only have the rights to haytojn Fischer and cruse.
who is going to sign there? Are they planning on all ufa? You have to ice a team.
Seath The Scaleless
Paledrake
I guess you're right about the lack of top line talent. I like Hintz (has played well, just snakebitten), Gurianov, and Robertson (when healthy) up front and figure they'd make up for Benn and Seguin's shitty play. But Bowness has them playing conservative hockey when they have the guys to open it up and produce.
I don't think they're a legitimate cup contender, but figured they would fight for a WC spot or 3rd place in the central
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
I mean age is age. Injuries don't help either.
Seguin 30 (+ major injury)
Benn 32
Radulov 35
Pavelski 37
Pavelski is only a year younger than Spezza.
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
The way I saw it coming in was that they were pretty poor last year even with an out of nowhere completely shocking elite year from the Robertson-Pavelski-Hintz line.
Never know what will happen in any year but if that turned out to be somewhat flukey (which was always likely imo) it was tough to see what else on that roster would make up for that line's regression to the mean.
Fogelhund
Registered User
- Sep 15, 2007
- 24,410
- 29,552
Stringer Bell
Registered User
- Dec 16, 2009
- 2,593
- 1,165
I don't think I read anything or saw anything that indicated he would be much more than a 4th line physical grinder who never short changed you on effort, but had a bit of an offensive touch around the net. Someone whose style of play would translate to the NHL but his skating might forever hold him back. That's pretty much what we always got from him. I think, even at the time though, these were the types of players we needed and were lacking...not a Malgin. I don't think there was much thought that he had a ceiling above a physical 4th liner who could not be an offensive black hole, but never a thought that his development was done.
Age is age but who would have thought Seguin and Benn would have gotten really old in their late 20s? Wasn't long ago they looked like killers.
Greybeard Pavelski has arguably been the best of the bunch the last 3 years and the only older Leaf (Tavares) has been better than all of them.
uncleben
Global Moderator
You'll probably see them sign a couple of "prove it" guys - guys that either are on the way out and want to prove they can still play/guys that just aren't ready to pack it in/guys that aren't world beaters but could be flipped at the deadline to a contender looking for experience and depth
Especially if ARI is able/looking to overpay to make a floor, there's the incentive to just stay in the league, even if you'll be on a losing team. Think sort of like that season where we packed the roster with middling (give or take) guys like Parenteau, Holland, Boyes, Grabner, Matthias, Greening, Winnik, Laich, Spaling, Michalek, and Arcobello
notDatsyuk
Registered User
- Jul 20, 2018
- 12,008
- 10,175
You didn't mention that the Dallas four played almost 100 fewer games.
You left off regulation record (Toronto 79-44-17, Dallas 64-49-24) and playoff record (Toronto 3-4, Dallas 14-10).
Maybe we should be less focused on individual stats and more on game results, especially in the playoffs.
Nylanderthal
Registered User
- Jun 9, 2010
- 7,901
- 6,252
He’s only owed $2m this season and has already collected cheques so probably only 1.7ish off the top of my head remaining. I guess he figured he can recoup that going home and playing in the KHL tax free or whatever it is they do there as opposed to riding the bus in the AHL
Isles might/should face recapture penalty seeing as it was front loaded
Seath The Scaleless
Paledrake
They had some significant injuries last year (Seguin, Radulov) as well covid issues off the bat, so I think it was a write off for them.
I don't disagree about that line regressing to the mean, but Hintz is rocking an incredibly low 5v5 on-ice SH% at the moment, so he's due for some production
Nylanderthal
Registered User
- Jun 9, 2010
- 7,901
- 6,252
Holy crap. This would be an interesting exercise to see just what kind of value the core 4 provide. that’s a chasm in production that two $8m players would bridge with only an $8m diff in aav
LaPlante94
Registered User
- Apr 12, 2011
- 7,240
- 3,616
At least if Arizona wins the lottery the next 2 seasons they'll finally have something to offer for Matthews right 
I listed the number of games individually there. Ill add them up if it helps:
Last 2 seasons + this partial current season:
Dallas top players:
Benn: 32 goals, 79 points in 132 games@ 9,500,000 a season
Seguin: 23 goals, 59 points in 84 games@ 9,850,000 a season
Pavelski: 42 goals, 89 points in 135 games@ 7,000,000 a season
Radulov: 20 goals, 52 points in 83 games@ 6,250,000 a season
Total: 117 goals, 279 points in 434 games@32,600,000 a season= averaging at 29 goals, 70 points in 109 games
Toronto Core 4:
Matthews: 93 goals, 156 points in 133 games@ 11,640,250 a season
Tavares: 52 goals, 123 points in 132 games@ 11,000,000 a season
Marner: 39 goals, 147 points in 128 games@ 10,903,000 a season
Nylander: 55 goals, 114 points in 133 games@ 6,962,366 a season
Total: 239 goals, 540 points in 526 games @40,505,616 a season = averaging at 60 goals, 135 points in 132 games
As far as shifting it to team goes, a single year Cinderella run that doesnt win a cup isnt that impressive to me and can lead a team to make catastrophic mistakes in overestimating how good their team actually is. Some teams get really lucky with PDO/matchups in the playoffs and some don't. Dallas was barley scraping by in their series and has been largely outplayed while Toronto has largely outplayed their opposition and received maybe the worst clutch goaltending of any of the 24 teams in elimination games while coming up against a couple of the top goaltending stories of the last two playoffs. At the beginning of the year, I had Leafs/Oilers/Pens as 3 teams to watch this year as they are much better than they appeared let down by PDO/matchups the last couple of years. Any of those teams could make a strong run to the cup simply because they are all really good teams. Dallas is in tough to even make the playoffs in a weak conference this year and they pay their stars way more than they are worth.
Oh, and Toronto is 5-7 and Dallas is 14-12 the last 2 playoffs with Toronto having a huge advantage when it comes to outplaying their opponents.
notDatsyuk
Registered User
- Jul 20, 2018
- 12,008
- 10,175
I'm afraid that "we're better than anyone else, but we just don't win" placebo line is getting very, very old, and really not true.
I see you added the play-in and round robin from 2020. Good for you - most Leafs apologists don't like to.
If you go a step further and look at points per game per 1 million dollars the leafs top 4 have a 0.0253 and Dallas top 4 has 0.0197. That is a percent increase of 28.4%, I.e. the leafs top 4 guys are producing around 30% better per dollar than the Dallas guys
- Status
