lumbergh
It was an idea. I didn't say it was a good idea.
The numbers I showed you come from the same team, same system, same circumstances, same partner, LA Kings, 2015-18.
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lumbergh
It was an idea. I didn't say it was a good idea.
No that's not what that's saying. Way to twist the argument. You're displaying a lack of understanding, perhaps intentionally, of the analytics.
And yet, you want to compare them to a player on DIFFERENT TEAM, DIFFERENT SYSTEM, DIFFERENT CIRCUMSTANCES,
That's what I am saying.
No, I am saying numbers can tell you anything you want about a player, are you arguing that Backlund isn't the best defensive C in the NHL? He's got a plus 33, the next closes one is Lindholm who is more W at 30 and Bonino at 29.....
Numbers can tell you anything about a player, you do know what they say about statistics, lies, damn lies, and statistics?
lumbergh
It was an idea. I didn't say it was a good idea.
Herby
How could Blake have known?
He brought up alot more in-depth and significant stats than plus-minus. Your response was a little off.
It was hyperbolic, yes.
He brought up more in depth and significant stats that Florida and Arizona have been using, bang up job they are doing, they got rid of Domi, whoops, rid of Strome and Perlini, whoops, not sure those stats are gonna tell the ENTIRE story....
LOL no problem just ask yourself this, if your stats painted the entire picture, why is Forbort still in the league?
If he is as bad as everyone on this board thinks he is, WHY is he still in the league, do you honestly think that people on here are seeing something that the people who do this for a living, can't see? Refuse to see?
Or maybe...just maybe....people on this board are biased, and do exactly what I think they do, hyperfocus on one mistake, and then think EVERYthing he does is bad?
Use Occam's razor, will ya?
jfont
Registered User
the sooner forbort is jettisoned, the better the kings D will be...
His GF Rel is -6%, which is only better than Phaneuf among Dmen with at least 50 minutes. So, even though the whole team is bad, he is extra bad.
I do like to judge Dmen by puck possession, but beyond that when you are across the board the worst on the team by any metric that should be concerning.
Even though giveaways are difficult to score, over the course of the season this should even out due to everyone in the league dealing with the same judges. Even if you account for some poorly attributed giveaways, he is still near the top of the league which should be concerning.
Eye test, well you may be a better scout than me, because I am just a fan, but I notice his poor turnovers putting the team in bad positions quite often and it seem that the numbers back me up.
Yes, near the top of the league in giveaways, he is 20th which I guess is a matter of semantics as to what is the "top" of the league.
It is expected that guys like Muzzin, Doughty and Burns would be near the top of the league in giveaways; they are tasked with leading the rush as the primary puck handlers on the team. Which is why I pointed out that Forbort being that high is especially bad, because I think even you'd agree that he is not a puck mover, much less the primary one. I'm not hyperfocused on anything, in fact I feel like I have provided a very broad set of information showing the issues with Forbort. I agree that he is not a 1st pairing defenseman, but he is being deployed as one and has been the past few seasons.
Not sure what site you are using, but NHL.com has him as 49th, but again, like I said, those stats are relatively meaningless, otherwise....you would really think Doughty is much much worse....
Muzzin is not the primary puck handler on his team, either of them....
And no, Forbort is not a puck mover, but he can move the puck, again, hyperfocusing on the 2 mistakes a period instead of the 12 plays he does right, you are gonna get a very interesting way to evaluate players....
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
- 32,583
- 11,775
I do not fully agree. I think as soon as Forbort is pushed down the depth chart the better the kings will be. He is a 4-6 on most teams in the league and is an NHL d-man. He jsut gets crapped on because he is over used and because Doughty is having such a bad year it does not mask his shit.
lumbergh
It was an idea. I didn't say it was a good idea.
I ask myself why Forbort is still on the Kings all the time! I would have no problem if he’s on another team. If he’s your #6/7 guy on D, that’s probably okay. I’d rather see MacDermid there, because at least he brings another element to the game.
And no I don’t focus on any one mistake. I bring numbers collected over thousands of minutes on the ice.
Herby
How could Blake have known?
I'd really like to see a team where Forbort is a top 4. I think he is ok as a defensive oriented 5 or 6. But if he is playing on a top 2 pairing your probably not a very good team.
i have some time,
Anaheim - he would be top 4 after Lindholm, Manson, Fowler, before Megna, Larsson, Holzer
Arizona - don't think he would be, OEL, Hammer, Goligoski, Demers, Chychrun
Boston - Chara, McAvoy, Krug, and then it would be Carlo or Forbort, I think that can go either way
Buffalo - Probably not, since they brought in Montour, but Bogo, Risto, Dahlin, and Montour
Calgary - No, Gio, Brodie, Hanifin, Harmonic
Carolina - No, Hamilton, Faulk, Slavin, Pesce
Chicago - Maybe, Keith, Seabrook, Gustaffson, Forsling just depends on how well you like Forsling, I would lean no
Colorado - Yes, behind Girard, Barrie, Johnson, ahead of Cole, Zadorov, Nemeth
Columbus - Probably not, Werenski, Jones, Murray, Savard
Dallas - Healthy probalby not, Lindell, Klingberg, Methot, Heiskanen, (interesting they got Polak with Heiskanen, isn't it)
Detroit - Might be top 2
Edmonton - Yes
Florida - Yes, ahead of Weegar
Minnesota - No
Montrreal - Yes
Nashville - No
New Jersey - Yes, ahead of Carrick
NYI - Maybe, depends on our feeling of Mayfield, I would lean yes
NYR - Yes. (but then again, they have Shattenkirk on 3rd pairing)
OTT - Yes
PHI - yes, ahead of Myers
PIT - yes, ahead of Johnson
SJ - maybe, Heed and Ryan are in the top 4, so it's possible
STL - no
TB - no
TOR - no
VAN - yes
VEG - maybe, McNabb, Engeland
WSH - no
WPG - no
Source - Team Line Combinations
There are 197 defensemen that have played at least 500 minutes in the NHL this season, which works out to ~6.4 defensemen per team. Among that group, Forbort has the 29th worst CF% and the 18th worst GF%. For relative, he has the 36th worst CF% Rel and 44th worst GF% Rel. He essentially is a 6/7 Dman, I doubt he would really fit in anyone's top 4 and would be only a potentially marginal upgrade on the bottom pair.
jfont
Registered User
King'sPawn
Enjoy the chaos
- Jul 1, 2003
- 23,196
- 24,110
I agree that Forbort is more of a "playing over his head" player than a "doesn't belong in the NHL". I think he simply is a bottom pairing defenseman. It's more about his role and weaknesses.
- he has shown an inability to anchor his own pairing. So I just don't see him as a #1, #3, or #5 guy. He doesn't take command of a situation. It doesn't make him bad, but he'll always be the sidekick, for lack of a better word.
- I agree he opts for safe plays. Again, nothing wrong with that. But I also think he frequently fails to identify dangerous situations ahead of time. You want to put him in more controlled situations if possible. Since he is more reactive than proactive, he would be best at playing on the bottom pairing where he DOES play against the bottom 6 opponents who will constantly pressure him.
So in my opinion, Forbort would be best as a #6. I defended him in years prior as being a good "minute eater" with Doughty, but I've since changed my mind.
He is big, but not physical. He's defensive and passive, but not a shut down guy. He's someone who doesn't pace the game. He can play in the NHL, but players like that should be in a limited role.
- he has shown an inability to anchor his own pairing. So I just don't see him as a #1, #3, or #5 guy. He doesn't take command of a situation. It doesn't make him bad, but he'll always be the sidekick, for lack of a better word.
- I agree he opts for safe plays. Again, nothing wrong with that. But I also think he frequently fails to identify dangerous situations ahead of time. You want to put him in more controlled situations if possible. Since he is more reactive than proactive, he would be best at playing on the bottom pairing where he DOES play against the bottom 6 opponents who will constantly pressure him.
So in my opinion, Forbort would be best as a #6. I defended him in years prior as being a good "minute eater" with Doughty, but I've since changed my mind.
He is big, but not physical. He's defensive and passive, but not a shut down guy. He's someone who doesn't pace the game. He can play in the NHL, but players like that should be in a limited role.
kovacro
Uvijek Vjerni
Looks like he could crack top 4 on some of the other teams in the bottom third of the league.
Id rather have Carlo (BOS), Mayfield (NYI), Simek (SJ) ahead of DF, maybe Kulak (MON) too but that’s close. Toss up with the Rags as well.
f***, the league is watered down. Can’t wait till they add Seattle.
Yep, guess where those teams are that relied on those numbers.....not in the playoffs and got rid of some damn good players. But keep on quoting those analytics...
I think it's close with Carlo, definitely not Kulak, Mayfield is close and can go either way, and Simek, don't know him too well enough to judge either way.
I don't think a single team in the league is completely ignoring possession and on ice goal differential, so I'm not sure what teams you are referencing. Most teams with positive CF% and GF% are in the playoffs right now. I am not one of those people who are 100% analytically inclined, however when every single metric is telling you one story maybe it is time to accept it as fact.
That's not analytics bud, that's common sense...
Again, referring to Arizona, whose analytics had them get rid of Domi, Strome, Perlini,
Florida who chose to get rid of Marchessault and Reilly, per analytics etc, not solely there, but that was part of it....
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