Around the League '16-'17 There are no games after 82 edition

[KINGS17]

It's almost like having prolonged success at the highest level is difficult or something...

Oh it's very difficult. Coaches like Sutter and Q probably have a shelf life as well, but when are fans going to realize the players have a shelf life as well?

You can read the Chicago boards and if you substituted "Kopitar" for "Toews" you would think you are over here.

The idea you can't trade these guys or let them walk when they are entering their 30's is a fallacy. Yes, some GM will give them stupid money. Better if it's not your team's GM.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Oh it's very difficult. Coaches like Sutter and Q probably have a shelf life as well, but when are fans going to realize the players have a shelf life as well?

You can read the Chicago boards and if you substituted "Kopitar" for "Toews" you would think you are over here.

The idea you can't trade these guys or let them walk when they are entering their 30's is a fallacy. Yes, some GM will give them stupid money. Better if it's not your team's GM.

And without the winning, it's a lot easier to do so. Even Bowman wasn't smart enough to walk away though. A little easier in St.Louis to let Backes walk for free, or to trade Shattenkirk. If the Blues had won with them? I don't think they're not in St.Louis today, with big fat contract holding the franchise back.

 

[Bandit]

Oh it's very difficult. Coaches like Sutter and Q probably have a shelf life as well, but when are fans going to realize the players have a shelf life as well?

You can read the Chicago boards and if you substituted "Kopitar" for "Toews" you would think you are over here.

The idea you can't trade these guys or let them walk when they are entering their 30's is a fallacy. Yes, some GM will give them stupid money. Better if it's not your team's GM.

Serious question: Can you name one championship team in the salary cap era that cut bait with their under 30 franchise player (or players, in Chicago's case) and went on to win another championship with the same team? I can't.

The only time I can even think of this happening ever is when the Oilers traded Gretzky, and that wasn't because the owner didn't want to pay him, it's because he was going bankrupt and couldn't pay him.

 

[KINGS17]

And without the winning, it's a lot easier to do so. Even Bowman wasn't smart enough to walk away though. A little easier in St.Louis to let Backes walk for free, or to trade Shattenkirk. If the Blues had won with them? I don't think they're not in St.Louis today, with big fat contract holding the franchise back.

...and it would have been a mistake. Just like it's a mistake in Chicago and LA.

Fans seem to think you can't ask a GM to be smart and dispassionate in these decisions. Yes, you can.

But human nature being the way it is, and fans being the lemmings we are, it's going to take the owners having another lockout to eliminate guaranteed contracts to fix it.

 

[KINGS17]

Serious question: Can you name one championship team in the salary cap era that cut bait with their under 30 franchise player (or players, in Chicago's case) and went on to win another championship with the same team? I can't.

The only time I can even think of this happening ever is when the Oilers traded Gretzky, and that wasn't because the owner didn't want to pay him, it's because he was going bankrupt and couldn't pay him.

No, I can't, but it's still a bad idea to give a guy that is almost 30 the golden parachute contract. In fact, these type of players are great for the role of the "supporting actor". The "headliner" money should go to players on their 2nd deal. They are the players who will determine if a team has success or not.

So far, there isn't a team which kept and paid their almost 30 year old franchise player(s) ridiculous money, and won another championship. There likely won't be one.

 

[Bandit]

No, I can't, but it's still a bad idea to give a guy that is almost 30 the golden parachute contract. In fact, these type of players are great for the role of the "supporting actor". The "headliner" money should go to players on their 2nd deal. They are the players who will determine if a team has success or not.

So far, there isn't a team which kept and paid their almost 30 year old franchise player(s) ridiculous money, and won another championship. There likely won't be one.

So if you hang onto them, you don't win, and if you let them go, you don't win. Sounds good to me.

 

[deeshamrock]

Another easy pathway to the WCF for the Ducks if the Oilers beat the Sharks.

Disagree. The Flames are losing more than the Ducks are winning and even if they do get past the Oilers, (which I don't see happening)
Nashville is a much better team.

 

[KingsFan7824]

...and it would have been a mistake. Just like it's a mistake in Chicago and LA.

Fans seem to think you can't ask a GM to be smart and dispassionate in these decisions. Yes, you can.

But human nature being the way it is, and fans being the lemmings we are, it's going to take the owners having another lockout to eliminate guaranteed contracts to fix it.

I'm not saying it's not a mistake, I'm saying it's probably not going to happen, anywhere. You win a championship, and when main guys are up for contracts, you're going to trade them or let them go? It's the smart move, but probably won't go over well with the general paying customer. If you don't win, then well you haven't won with those main guys, so everyone gets letting guys go in some fashion.

In a cap league, you have to think differently, but GM's don't. Didn't in LA, didn't in Chicago, didn't in Boston, didn't in Detroit, and Pittsburgh got very lucky to have both Crosby and Malkin. Plus how many Cups did Pittsburgh win with after Crosby and Malkin got those big 2nd contracts? None right after Malkin got the big raise, but they won in 2009, which was Crosby's first season with an $8.7m cap hit. It took them 7 years to win another one, for various reasons, one of them being that two guys took up a bunch of cap space. It's paying off now as the cap has gone up, but just a couple years ago, they were being ripped for not having won another Cup after 2009.

 

[KINGS17]

So if you hang onto them, you don't win, and if you let them go, you don't win. Sounds good to me.

Once the winning is over, and it's the GMs job to figure this out, it's best to get on with the business of rebuilding, or maybe reloading if your star player will take a reasonable deal.

Dean did a great job with Kopitar and Doughty's second contracts because he had some leverage. I think we can all agree Kopitar's 3rd contract isn't going to facilitate the Kings winning another Stanley Cup.

As I said, I doubt the fans and the GMs can help themselves, so it's going to be up to the owners once again to put a stop to this foolishness. It's not good for the fans, which means it's not good for the game, to have players in the league making money which far exceeds their level of performance.

As a fan of the game, I think the elimination of guaranteed contracts is the best solution. I don't really care how long the owners have to lock the players out to get this concession or something similar in the next CBA.

 

[CowMix]

Elliott is garbage, definition of a good goalie thats not a big game goalie.

 

[KINGS17]

I'm not saying it's not a mistake, I'm saying it's probably not going to happen, anywhere. You win a championship, and when main guys are up for contracts, you're going to trade them or let them go? It's the smart move, but probably won't go over well with the general paying customer. If you don't win, then well you haven't won with those main guys, so everyone gets letting guys go in some fashion.

In a cap league, you have to think differently, but GM's don't. Didn't in LA, didn't in Chicago, didn't in Boston, didn't in Detroit, and Pittsburgh got very lucky to have both Crosby and Malkin. Plus how many Cups did Pittsburgh win with after Crosby and Malkin got those big 2nd contracts? None right after Malkin got the big raise, but they won in 2009, which was Crosby's first season with an $8.7m cap hit. It took them 7 years to win another one, for various reasons, one of them being that two guys took up a bunch of cap space. It's paying off now as the cap has gone up, but just a couple years ago, they were being ripped for not having won another Cup after 2009.

This is a very good point as the big 2nd contracts for Malkin and Crosby had the exact same effect as the big 3rd contracts to Kopitar and Toews are having on their teams. It took years of the cap increasing at an unsustainable rate, to the point where based on their performance Malkin and Crosby have very reasonable cap hits, to allow Pittsburgh to recover and trade for a guy like Kessel.

The cap is stagnant once again, and will likely be stagnant for a while. Kopitar and Toews are grossly overpaid, which affects the salary structure of their entire teams. When you throw in the bad contracts given to Brown and Gaborik, it's a bad recipe for success.

Do we really think Kopitar or Toews are in the same class as Crosby or Malkin? I don't think Kopitar will be productive for another 5 years, much less 7. Crosby and Malkin are generational talents, Kopitar isn't.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Oh boy, now Bowman is bad too?

Guess we'd better tell the guys that have won 5 of the last 6 Cups they know nothing about GMing.

 

[KingsFan7824]

This is a very good point as the big 2nd contracts for Malkin and Crosby had the exact same effect as the big 3rd contracts to Kopitar and Toews are having on their teams. It took years of the cap increasing at an unsustainable rate, to the point where based on their performance Malkin and Crosby have very reasonable cap hits, to allow Pittsburgh to recover and trade for a guy like Kessel.

The cap is stagnant once again, and will likely be stagnant for a while. Kopitar and Toews are grossly overpaid, which affects the salary structure of their entire teams. When you throw in the bad contracts given to Brown and Gaborik, it's a bad recipe for success.

Do we really think Kopitar or Toews are in the same class as Crosby or Malkin? I don't think Kopitar will be productive for another 5 years, much less 7. Crosby and Malkin are generational talents, Kopitar isn't.

You pick your poison, with no guarantee that you win or get good again.

You can let Kopitar go, but you're probably not getting a young Kopitar back, and who knows if you can draft another one in the next decade. Just like winning the Cup, you have to be bad in the right year, with the right prospect, get lucky with the lottery at the right time, or have the next Kopitar fall to you outside of the top 10.

It's so hard to win, that GM's/owners hold onto any hope of being competitive. If Sutter was the problem, maybe this core can still win. That will probably play itself out over a few years before the roster gets torn apart. Teams just don't turn around and say it's over at the drop of a hat. Teams don't want to suck, and if they're really rebuilding, it's because nothing is working.

I'm guessing the Kings will keep trying to win with the core they have, not that they have many options, will do whatever they can to try and sign Doughty, and depending on the result of that, we'll see what happens after that. If Kopitar is going to be the Kings more expensive version of Zetterberg, the 35 year old guy on a bad team, then that's just how it'll go.

 

[BigKing]

Watching the Ducks breeze through Calgary so they have time to rest up and get healthy has just been so awesome. Loving every second of it.

 

[KINGS17]

You pick your poison, with no guarantee that you win or get good again.

You can let Kopitar go, but you're probably not getting a young Kopitar back, and who knows if you can draft another one in the next decade. Just like winning the Cup, you have to be bad in the right year, with the right prospect, get lucky with the lottery at the right time, or have the next Kopitar fall to you outside of the top 10.

It's so hard to win, that GM's/owners hold onto any hope of being competitive. If Sutter was the problem, maybe this core can still win. That will probably play itself out over a few years before the roster gets torn apart. Teams just don't turn around and say it's over at the drop of a hat. Teams don't want to suck, and if they're really rebuilding, it's because nothing is working.

I'm guessing the Kings will keep trying to win with the core they have, not that they have many options, will do whatever they can to try and sign Doughty, and depending on the result of that, we'll see what happens after that. If Kopitar is going to be the Kings more expensive version of Zetterberg, the 35 year old guy on a bad team, then that's just how it'll go.

This is the point. It's has a much higher probability of going this way than Kopitar leading the Kings to another cup.

I recognize teams won't just tear it up at the drop of a hat. GMs and fans are too foolish to do what needs to be done. It's why I advocate the elimination of the guaranteed contract.

Sign Kopitar to the 8-year, $80M deal. That's fine, but when if he plays like he did last season the next season or two, cut him.

 

[KINGS17]

Oh boy, now Bowman is bad too?

Guess we'd better tell the guys that have won 5 of the last 6 Cups they know nothing about GMing.

Go read the Chicago board.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Oh boy, now Bowman is bad too?

Guess we'd better tell the guys that have won 5 of the last 6 Cups they know nothing about GMing.

lol Damned if you do, damned if you don't. People talking about getting rid of players before they're 30, but it's the players in the 30s that were crucial in the wins.

 

[KINGS17]

This is worth a look.

http://deadspin.com/the-dynasty-that-ate-itself-1794385282

The pursuit of that Streak, at the expense of a long-term vision and with the results of sustained mediocrity, falls squarely on longtime general manager Ken Holland.

Making the playoffs for 25 years straight is objectively insane.

Not only are the Wings mired in mediocrity going into their new arena, they’re hamstrung for the next few years. The team’s future payroll is a graveyard of old guys on laughably bad contracts.

Every GM knows they’ll have to pay the piper at the end of deals, but Holland has largely failed to get his money’s worth at the front end too. He’s deprived himself of flexibility by handing out no-trade clauses, and by resigning third- and fourth-liners (Justin Abdelkader, Luke Glendening, Darren Helm) above market value, seemingly out of blind loyalty.

Even now, Holland says he can rebuild and restock the Wings on the fly, and when asked, refused to rule out trading away one of the team’s few young talents to land a more immediate contributor.

“We’ve got more spins of the wheel,” Holland told MLive.com. “We’re trying to stay in the mix with teams in our division.

“If Holland was competent enough to figure out that the rebuild is going to take more than a year, then maybe they could possibly trust him with all of his years of experience and all of his connections,” said one person who used to work for the Ilitches and requested anonymity for fear of retribution.

“Maybe he could do a good job of having a turnaround in three to five years. But he is absolutely against it. He wants, like, a one-year turnaround. Which means he’s probably going to go and blow money on old veteran players and his usual crap.

If you don't think this can happen with the Kings under Luc Robitaille's leadership, you'd be wrong.

 

[theMajor]

Oh boy, now Bowman is bad too?

Guess we'd better tell the guys that have won 5 of the last 6 Cups they know nothing about GMing.

you just cant win with some people

 

[BigKing]

This is worth a look.

http://deadspin.com/the-dynasty-that-ate-itself-1794385282

















If you don't think this can happen with the Kings under Luc Robitaille's leadership, you'd be wrong.

Exactly.

In the past three seasons, AEG has been spending money on the roster while being deprived of playoff revenues save for three games last season.

Business was still good in 2015 and '16 but it fell off a cliff during calendar year 2017. No playoff revenue, loss of STH'ers while increasing prices again and having to resort to all kinds of deals just to sell single game tickets.

Now, AEG is front and center as Luc is an AEG creation. These guys are going to want a return on their investment in the roster and I can't blame them. So, do they stick with a youth movement plan that could take longer to find success or do they make some big, immediate moves to get back in the playoffs?

Going to be very interesting during that period from the end of the SCF through early July. I know the coach is important but I'm sure I'll be willing to give anyone who isn't a retread a chance. I'm much more interested in how Blake and AEG tackle the roster in the off-season.

 

[KINGS17]

Oh boy, now Bowman is bad too?

Guess we'd better tell the guys that have won 5 of the last 6 Cups they know nothing about GMing.

lol Damned if you do, damned if you don't. People talking about getting rid of players before they're 30, but it's the players in the 30s that were crucial in the wins.

you just cant win with some people

These are cute, but completely misrepresent what I have said.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

These are cute, but completely misrepresent what I have said.

I just don't think it's as simple as you continually make it sound is all. I respect your viewpoint and agree with a lot of it, but you're making it very black-and-white.

Hell, just two weeks ago everyone was lauding Chicago as the perfect example of recycling parts and plug-and-play for continued success...now, Bowman handed out toxic retirement contracts to washups over 30 and they're basically the Kings.

To me, very simply, this is just the price of success in the Cap era. Bowman navigated it better than Lombardi, who navigated it better than everyone else. The day of the 10-20-year superteams is over no matter how perfectly they follow your blueprint because if they do and they're successful, unless you have a roster of McDavids that want to take huge hometown discounts and are RFAs, you're going to pay them or they're going to move on. Otherwise, you just have Arizona.

 

[theMajor]

These are cute, but completely misrepresent what I have said.

whats cute is that you think you know more and are better able to make decisions than some of the best GMs in this league. its not ever as easy or straight-forward as you seem to think it is. you have some good thoughts on certain issues but then you throw out little gems like this

GMs and fans are too foolish to do what needs to be done.

and it totally detracts from the positive points you've made. like you know better than Bowman or Lombardi? cmon dude

 

[KINGS17]

I just don't think it's as simple as you continually make it sound is all. I respect your viewpoint and agree with a lot of it, but you're making it very black-and-white.

Hell, just two weeks ago everyone was lauding Chicago as the perfect example of recycling parts and plug-and-play for continued success...now, Bowman handed out toxic retirement contracts to washups over 30 and they're basically the Kings.

To me, very simply, this is just the price of success in the Cap era. Bowman navigated it better than Lombardi, who navigated it better than everyone else. The day of the 10-20-year superteams is over no matter how perfectly they follow your blueprint because if they do and they're successful, unless you have a roster of McDavids that want to take huge hometown discounts and are RFAs, you're going to pay them or they're going to move on. Otherwise, you just have Arizona.

I'm not saying it's simple. Not at all. If it were simple everyone would avoid this kind of trap.

I tend to agree, the bad contracts are a function of the salary cap era and a CBA which allows a maximum contract length of 8 years.

I am simply saying, would you rather have a few years of being a playoff team at the end of a run, or would you rather have your GM get busy on building a contender again. I enjoyed the building years and seeing a plan being executed almost as much as the run. I doubt very much I will enjoy watching the slow, steady decline we are about to witness.

 

[KINGS17]

whats cute is that you think you know more and are better able to make decisions than some of the best GMs in this league. its not ever as easy or straight-forward as you seem to think it is. you have some good thoughts on certain issues but then you throw out little gems like this and it totally detracts from the positive points you've made. like you know better than Bowman or Lombardi? cmon dude

Okay, I will accept that critique. I don't know how to scout a player or recognize talent better than Bowman or Lombardi, but I can recognize a trend. I can tell you handing out max deals to almost 30 year old players isn't the path to short term or long term success.

To some degree the GMs are victims of their environment, but it would be wise for owners and GMs to recognize their environment and act accordingly.

Those who do will have more success over the long term.