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Around the League '16-'17 Other Teams' Free Agent Frenzy

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johnjm22 said:
Kane's contract isn't THAT bad. He'll be aged 27 to 33 for the duration of deal and should score at a 20-30 goal pace each season. 34 is the age at which players usually drop off.

SJ didn't have many other options, and rarely do you get decent free agent who are this young (he's 26 right now). I also think the character stuff is exaggerated.

7M sounds like a lot, but the cap is probably going to be 80M+ this coming season and ~7M will soon be the normal price for a top 6 winger UFA in their twenties.
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I don't dislike the player, but there are definitely off-ice concerns and he gets banged up a lot. Due to that, the term is the thing that really stands out.

Plus, they have to give up a 1st round pick on top of it.

If this is the new normal for a winger like this, we sould all be frightened about Toffoli. Toffoli has been on better teams and has been healthier but here is a comparison since the time Toffoli has been a regular in the lineup (2015-present).

Kane: 87 goals, 154 points
Toffoli: 94 goals, 188 points

The incentive to trade Toffoli as part of my Tavares fantasy just increased due to this signing. If we retain Toffoli and he bounces back to 30 goals, especially in his contract year, then hold on to your butts.
 
KINGS17 said:
Unless Karlsson gets an offer sheet, he doesn't have any choice but to deal with Vegas or sit. He is a restricted free agent. A 2-3 year deal is likely what is most fair for both sides. If Karlsson keeps performing well he will get another shot on his next contract. So far, he has had one great season, and several not so great seasons.

If Karlsson gets an inflated offer sheet, Vegas might be wise to take the picks then use Karlsson's money to go shopping on the UFA market. I don't think there is an offer sheet coming for Karlsson.
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If I'm Vegas I would be worried about signing him to a short term deal because of how expensive he could be when the deal expires.

They way I see it, signing him to a 2-3 year deal is just as risky as signing him to a long term deal. If he's a great player, this is VGK's one opportunity to get him locked up long term at a good rate.

If the cap hit is reasonable, I would sign to a long term contract. He just turned 25 in January.
 
johnjm22 said:
If I'm Vegas I would be worried about signing him to a short term deal because of how expensive he could be when the deal expires.

They way I see it, signing him to a 2-3 year deal is just as risky as signing him to a long term deal. If he's a great player, this is VGK's one opportunity to get him locked up long term at a good rate.

If the cap hit is reasonable, I would sign to a long term contract. He just turned 25 in January.
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Define reasonable, and this is where they are going to be at negotiations,

Is he a Laine type player, Ovechkin etc? Karlsson is going to point to 40 goals and say, absolutely,

Vegas is going to point to the shoointg percentage and say it's not sustainable, and Karlsson is going to say why not, and Vegas has no answer, can't prove it's not, even if you think it is, even if Karlsson thinks it is, can't prove it.

Anything more than Kane's 7 million, has to be on a 3-4 year deal I think, anything less, I agree long term.
 
johnjm22 said:
If I'm Vegas I would be worried about signing him to a short term deal because of how expensive he could be when the deal expires.

They way I see it, signing him to a 2-3 year deal is just as risky as signing him to a long term deal. If he's a great player, this is VGK's one opportunity to get him locked up long term at a good rate.

If the cap hit is reasonable, I would sign to a long term contract. He just turned 25 in January.
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If a team gives a player like Karlsson a long term deal after one great season, they better be getting a huge discount on the cap hit. He scored 15 goals total in his first two full NHL seasons.
 
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GoldenBearHockey said:
Define reasonable, and this is where they are going to be at negotiations,

Is he a Laine type player, Ovechkin etc? Karlsson is going to point to 40 goals and say, absolutely,

Vegas is going to point to the shoointg percentage and say it's not sustainable, and Karlsson is going to say why not, and Vegas has no answer, can't prove it's not, even if you think it is, even if Karlsson thinks it is, can't prove it.

Anything more than Kane's 7 million, has to be on a 3-4 year deal I think, anything less, I agree long term.
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It's a unique situation for sure.

Laine/Ovechkin are wingers. Karlsson is a two way center that plays in all game situations. That type of player is extremely valuable in the NHL. What happens if VGK wins the cup? Who's his closest comparables then? Kopitar and Toews? (Both were UFA's, Karlsson is an RFA).

Johansen signed for 8M x 8YRS fairly recently. Eichel 10M.

There's no great comp because Karlsson has only been productive for one year. If you could get him to sign for 7M, I think you absolutely lock him up long term. 7M for a 25 year old two way center that can pot 25-35 goals is a very good deal in today's NHL.

KINGS17 said:
If a team gives a player like Karlsson a long term deal after one great season, they better be getting a huge discount on the cap hit. He scored 15 goals total in his first two full NHL seasons.
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Do you think he's going to be a good player over the next 5-8 years? Because that's all that matters.

I've watched enough to be convinced he's an excellent player. I don't think he's going to be a regular 40 goal scorer or anything, but I think he's better than Johansen for example.
 
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johnjm22 said:
Kane's contract isn't THAT bad. He'll be aged 27 to 33 for the duration of deal and should score at a 20-30 goal pace each season. 34 is the age at which players usually drop off.

SJ didn't have many other options, and rarely do you get decent free agents who are this young (he's 26 right now). I also think the character stuff is exaggerated.

7M sounds like a lot, but the cap is probably going to be 80M+ this coming season and ~7M will soon be the normal price for a top 6 winger UFA in their twenties.
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Ehhhh 34...?

How scoring rates change as players age

Points_aging_1_medium.png
 
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Chazz Reinhold said:
Ehhhh 34...?

How scoring rates change as players age

Points_aging_1_medium.png
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It's been my observation that 34 seems to be about the age where player's production falls below what's expected of a top 6 forward.

You can find very few players aged 34+ that are still producing like top 6 forwards. But you can find plenty of aged 30-33 who still are.

Only two players 34 or over scored 20+ goals last year.
 
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johnjm22 said:
It's been my observation that 34 seems to be about the age where player's production falls below what's expected of a top 6 forward.

You can find very few players aged 34+ that are still producing like top 6 forwards. But you can find plenty of aged 30-33 who still are.

Only two players 34 or over scored 20+ goals last year.
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That’s a fair point. I’m just referencing the objective truth that players peak offensively around 24-25. That doesn’t mean that some players can’t continue to have offensive success into their 30s; it just means that on average, players don’t tend to get better (and indeed get worse) in terms of offensive production after their mid-20s.
 
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f*** Coburn and the Tampa Bay Lightning. Glad to see Coburn get his ass kicked for tossing the Caps jersey on the ice like that.

Hoping to see Ovi win his 1st Cup by the end of all this.
 
Wow, 3-0? Doesn't sound like too exciting of a game. Goes with the theme of these playoffs I guess.

0 points for Burakovsky going into tonight and now he's the hero.
 
There's something kind of soft about this Tampa team.

Also, good defense usually cancels out good offense.
 
johnjm22 said:
There's something kind of soft about this Tampa team.

Also, good defense usually cancels out good offense.
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Yep, I wonder what changes they will make in the offseason,

They are going to have around 6 million in cap space, have to resign JT Miller, Paquette, Erne, and Kunitz, I see Kunitz gone, Miller getting the bulk of that, I think they make a move to try and upgrade Giradi and his 3 Million cap hit,

I wonder if they would entertain a Palat for Martinez type swap? Would LA? I don't know if Palat would gel with Kopitar, but he's clearly gifted offensively
 
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