I feel like you missed the point. In the real world nobody gets paid for future potential, they get paid based on their past results.
Around the League '16-'17 Other Teams' Free Agent Frenzy
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I feel like you missed the point. In the real world nobody gets paid for future potential, they get paid based on their past results.
johnjm22
Pseudo Intellectual
- Aug 2, 2005
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Next years UFA class looks pretty interesting.
Tavares, Sedins, Thornton, Nash, Statsny, Koivu, Mike Green, Evander Kane, Plekanec, Filppula, James Neal, JJ, JVR, Hornqvist, Bozak, Emelin, Chara, John Carlson, Perron, Sbisa, Kyle Turris, Lars Eller, Cam Ward, Josh Bailey, Vrbata, Chimera, Hickey, Vermette, John Moore, Jonathan Marchessault
The Tavares situation is one of the most interesting in the NHL. I think he's gone from NYI for sure. If you were him, would you stay there? If the Kings were to pursue him they'd have to lose one of their big contracts or else they probably couldn't afford him and sign their other guys.
Tavares, Sedins, Thornton, Nash, Statsny, Koivu, Mike Green, Evander Kane, Plekanec, Filppula, James Neal, JJ, JVR, Hornqvist, Bozak, Emelin, Chara, John Carlson, Perron, Sbisa, Kyle Turris, Lars Eller, Cam Ward, Josh Bailey, Vrbata, Chimera, Hickey, Vermette, John Moore, Jonathan Marchessault
The Tavares situation is one of the most interesting in the NHL. I think he's gone from NYI for sure. If you were him, would you stay there? If the Kings were to pursue him they'd have to lose one of their big contracts or else they probably couldn't afford him and sign their other guys.
johnjm22
Pseudo Intellectual
- Aug 2, 2005
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Superstar players rarely land the return that people expect. Especially when the player is a pending UFA.
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
The 2019 class of free agents is ridiculous. I expect most to re-sign, but any of the top names hitting the open market is going to create a big frenzy.
Yeah the next year's UFA class always looks crazy in the summer, then by October half of them have signed extensions.
WHOneedsSOX
Registered User
- Mar 1, 2015
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Well he is playing on Olympic sized ice next year in the KHL. He's going to do terrible over there unfortunately.
I agree but Milan Lucic returned roughly that same package that the article was proposing and Tavares is twice the player Lucic is. You're looking at a minimum of two firsts + two top prospects with one of them being a top 25 NHL prospect I'd guess. This is a full season of John Tavares who is one of the top 10 players in the NHL.
johnjm22
Pseudo Intellectual
- Aug 2, 2005
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Part of the reason Lucic got so much was because it was salary retained, and because his playoff experience/success was valuable to a team still trying to contend.
Dean may have also overpaid which you have to factor in.
Look at what Kovalchuk got.
Teams aren't going to give up huge assets for a pending UFA, even it if it's a great player.
WHOneedsSOX
Registered User
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Tavares cap hit is only $5.5 million so not many teams could afford him anyways without shedding salary. Also the Islanders trading Tavares would signal them pretty much giving up on the 17-18 season so they'd very likely be willing to retain salary. So if you factor that in, 20 NHL teams would call about Tavares driving his price sky high. Like I said, this is a top 10 NHL player. Lucic was a top 20 LW. I just feel like a 1st+ Kempe + Pearson + Campbell is no where near what it would take to get him. I think at a minimum it'd take a 1st + Vilardi + another asset or two.
johnjm22
Pseudo Intellectual
- Aug 2, 2005
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Maybe so, but it depends on what other teams are willing to offer. Teams are afraid to give up assets for a pending UFA, especially one that will take up 10M+ in cap space to re-sign.
WHOneedsSOX
Registered User
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Yeah, I understand. All it takes is 2-3 teams really trying to outbid one another though. Nashville will certainly be in it. I can even see Pittsburgh in it to try to get that 3rd in a row.
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
Take a gander at the 2019 free agent class:
Drew Doughty
Erik Karlsson
Tyler Seguin
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Blake Wheeler
Sergei Bobrovsky
Pekka Rinne
Jason Spezza
Logan Couture
Joe Pavelski
Artemi Panarin
Matt Duchene
Jordan Eberle
Jeff Skinner
Ryan McDonagh
Nikita Kucherov (RFA)
Max Pacioretty
Wayne Simmonds
Jakob Silfverberg
Ryan Ellis
John Gibson
Mats Zuccarello
Marcus Johansson
Tyler Myers
Marc Methot
Semyon Varlamov
Marc-Andre Fleury
Derick Brassard
Alex Edler
Gustav Nyquist
https://capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2020
That has to be among the deepest classes of free agents in quite some time.
Drew Doughty
Erik Karlsson
Tyler Seguin
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Blake Wheeler
Sergei Bobrovsky
Pekka Rinne
Jason Spezza
Logan Couture
Joe Pavelski
Artemi Panarin
Matt Duchene
Jordan Eberle
Jeff Skinner
Ryan McDonagh
Nikita Kucherov (RFA)
Max Pacioretty
Wayne Simmonds
Jakob Silfverberg
Ryan Ellis
John Gibson
Mats Zuccarello
Marcus Johansson
Tyler Myers
Marc Methot
Semyon Varlamov
Marc-Andre Fleury
Derick Brassard
Alex Edler
Gustav Nyquist
https://capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2020
That has to be among the deepest classes of free agents in quite some time.
Little Psycho
Registered User
We are so weak on left wing i don't think we can afford to trade Pearson.
I saw that Tavares article earlier.
For Tavares as a UFA, Kings could offer about $9 million and the only contract that would have to be dumped and replaced with a guy under $1 million is Clifford. Anything beyond that and Gaborik would have to be dumped which would require assets.
This is why I was head scratching over the Greene BO. From a pure cap point of view, it was better to bury him and get $1,025,000 this year. Is the extra $641,334 this year from a buyout when UFAs aren't that good worth a hit of 833,333 next year with presumably much better UFAs?
For Tavares as a UFA, Kings could offer about $9 million and the only contract that would have to be dumped and replaced with a guy under $1 million is Clifford. Anything beyond that and Gaborik would have to be dumped which would require assets.
This is why I was head scratching over the Greene BO. From a pure cap point of view, it was better to bury him and get $1,025,000 this year. Is the extra $641,334 this year from a buyout when UFAs aren't that good worth a hit of 833,333 next year with presumably much better UFAs?
AlphaBravo
Registered User
That's basically what I predicted. The market price now is basically $10 million for elite number 1 centers, $10 million+ for the super elite like McDavid, Matthew etc.
$8 million is basically for someone that can be considered a legitimate no. 1 center on a team. I think Stamkos is in the elite category and deserved $10 million, but he took the deal he did because of Florida state tax.
tsanuri
Registered User
That's assuming most of them make it that far. Many of them will be signed between July 1st next year and the start of the season most likely. Then most of the rest will be done by January 1st.
Then there will be the few scraps that might actually make it to July 1st that year as a UFA.
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
It'll be interesting to monitor how many of them re-sign as soon as next summer as you suggested.
I'm looking ahead to 2019 due to the fact that the NHL or the NHLPA could end the current CBA agreement in September of 2019. If neither side chooses to opt out by then, then the CBA will expire on September 15, 2022.
You know these guys will want a McDavid like contract that pays a good chunk of their salaries through bonus payments.
kingsfan28
Its A Kingspiracy !
SettlementRichie10
Registered User
- May 6, 2012
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Top players RARELY hit July 1. Doughty, Karlsson, and Seguin will be re-signed or traded and re-signed.
Reclamation Project
Cut It All Right In Two
- Jul 6, 2011
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Kings gonna use Ben Bernanke's money printer to get that 9 million per for Tavares? Never gonna happen.
Omni Owl
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deeshamrock
Registered User
The key words there being 'author listed'. That's his speculation only and not a very realistic one, IMO. It will take a couple 1st rounders and top prospects or young player combo. JT is not only one of the top talents in the game, but he's one helluva leader. Seems born to it. That's something you can't teach and I've admire that in him for years.
I think the GM's in the league are a pretty tight fraternity and it's no secret JT wants out. He'll say all the right things while he's wearing the logo, as well he should. But I can't see him taking a deck chair on the Titanic. Teams going nowhere, sinking fast in a very tough division > I think Snow is almost in panic mod.
IF they do trade him, it will be a team that not only has the 9M or so in Cap space for the next contract, but the assets to offer. Off the top of my head, Canes, BJ's come to mind. But it will be an interesting year and I think the Isles are on the bottom half of that division, so JT could go by the deadline in Feb.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
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I don't feel I missed the point. In the real world people get paid for past performance because experience is a big part of reaching peak performance. If you are good at what you do for a living you are constantly educating yourself and learning from your own mistakes and the mistakes you see others make. You reach your prime 12 -15 years into your career, and you likely remain there for another 20 years.
In the NHL experience matters, but not as much as correctly assessing a players potential in future years. Paying discount rates for future performance is the best way for an organization to be successful. Paying a maximum contract to a player who is almost 30 years old has been shown to be a bad idea for the most part.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
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Hmm, what would we rather have Johansen at age 24 for 8 years and $64M with a cap hit of $8M, or Kopitar at age 30 for another 7 years and a cap hit of $10M a season?
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