Around the League '16-'17 Other Teams' Free Agent Frenzy

[Fishhead]

You're either intentionally dodging his point, or you're just dense. How is Kopitar likely to be less healthy going forward then RyJo? Because that was your statement he was responding to.

Here's an interesting study I found last year:

http://www.healthgeomatics.com/predicting-nhl-hockey-injuries/

In a nutshell, this guy's data crunching says that injuries are lower up to age 30, then increase after that. I would say it's definitely likely Kopitar would be less healthy overall, you can't fight age.

What Kopitar has going for him is that he has had relatively few injuries in his past, mostly small nagging ones and only the one big leg injury which doesn't appear to have slowed him down. He has a better chance of being healthy than most. RyJo, on the other hand, has had even fewer injuries, the big one being that weird thigh thing he had.

I don't think Kopitar is going to be on IR much even in his later years, but he's likely going to be on there more than RyJo is. Likely isn't a certainty, there's always outliers, but those are very uncommon.

It's a simplified analysis of injury data, but the trends apply to a lot of players - e.g. Gaborik, Crosby, Lupul, Hall, Malkin, Havlat, Letang, Lindros, etc. And those are just guys off the top of my head - high profile ones. It's not even counting the rank and file which should follow the same trend. Players who are injured a lot early in their careers tend to be injured a lot later. There are some outliers like Williams who had a lot of early injuries, but has been quite healthy since, but they are few and far between.

It's something that GM's don't appear to put much weight on, however. You can bet if Couture makes it to UFA in a couple years, he's going to get ridiculous offers, even though there is high confidence that he's going to miss huge chunks of games. I'd love to see a more detailed study done, wish I had the time to do it myself

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Here's an interesting study I found last year:

http://www.healthgeomatics.com/predicting-nhl-hockey-injuries/

In a nutshell, this guy's data crunching says that injuries are lower up to age 30, then increase after that. I would say it's definitely likely Kopitar would be less healthy overall, you can't fight age.

What Kopitar has going for him is that he has had relatively few injuries in his past, mostly small nagging ones and only the one big leg injury which doesn't appear to have slowed him down. He has a better chance of being healthy than most. RyJo, on the other hand, has had even fewer injuries, the big one being that weird thigh thing he had.

I don't think Kopitar is going to be on IR much even in his later years, but he's likely going to be on there more than RyJo is. Likely isn't a certainty, there's always outliers, but those are very uncommon.

It's a simplified analysis of injury data, but the trends apply to a lot of players - e.g. Gaborik, Crosby, Lupul, Hall, Malkin, Havlat, Letang, Lindros, etc. And those are just guys off the top of my head - high profile ones. It's not even counting the rank and file which should follow the same trend. Players who are injured a lot early in their careers tend to be injured a lot later. There are some outliers like Williams who had a lot of early injuries, but has been quite healthy since, but they are few and far between.

It's something that GM's don't appear to put much weight on, however. You can bet if Couture makes it to UFA in a couple years, he's going to get ridiculous offers, even though there is high confidence that he's going to miss huge chunks of games. I'd love to see a more detailed study done, wish I had the time to do it myself

EDIT--I MATHED WRONG, thanks nhl for splitting seasons . Kopitar's first 6 seasons in the league he played 475 of 492 possible regular season. RyJo has played 433 of 458. Not much difference there. Even a similar injury, really. I tend to agree that NHL teams may not really fully look at that, but I do remember reading an article back in the day (around the time we got JWill, who some were calling 'injury prone') that the Kings were one of the first to dabble in injury analytics, whatever the hell that meant, haha.

In 10 seasons, Kopitar has produced more than RoJo's best season 5 times and was on pace to do so in the lockout season as well. This isn't counting Kopitar being the far superior defensive player, even though I'll be perfectly fine conceding RyJo is a better pure playmaker. Production wise, RyJo is in trouble.

If we're subscribing to the argument that production starts tailing off after 24, and I give you a guy who has has broken 70 points only once and 60 only twice, that seems problematic when you can pay Kopitar 2 million more to do much much more. If we are talking career trajectories, the guy hasn't done anything at all to surpass Kopitar or suggest that he could.

I don't want to bash the guy, he's a lot of fun to watch, but this boards constant teardowns of Kopitar and over-glorification of Ryan Johansen is completely baffling outside of shiny new toy syndrome. Kopitar got absolutely eviscerated around here in 2015 when he put up 64 points--yet here we are pining for a guy who has only surpassed that once. Can we pick a new comparable?

Now it's ageism to point out most hockey players' offensive production declines, usually dramatically, after they hit 30 years of age? I didn't know identity politics had started to affect NHL personnel decisions.

I know you would take Kopitar and his current deal over Johansen and his contract. Hence the comments regarding infatuation I made a few posts ago. Let me give you the key phrase from your post, "Kopitar has been". Kopitar may have a bounce back season, and I hope he does, but it won't make the Kings a contender, nor will it make his contract any more palatable.

If you're suggesting the Kings would be a contender with RyJo but not with Kopitar, we're further apart on their abilities than I've ever imagined.

 

[justonetime]

Here's an interesting study I found last year:

http://www.healthgeomatics.com/predicting-nhl-hockey-injuries/

In a nutshell, this guy's data crunching says that injuries are lower up to age 30, then increase after that. I would say it's definitely likely Kopitar would be less healthy overall, you can't fight age.

What Kopitar has going for him is that he has had relatively few injuries in his past, mostly small nagging ones and only the one big leg injury which doesn't appear to have slowed him down. He has a better chance of being healthy than most. RyJo, on the other hand, has had even fewer injuries, the big one being that weird thigh thing he had.

I don't think Kopitar is going to be on IR much even in his later years, but he's likely going to be on there more than RyJo is. Likely isn't a certainty, there's always outliers, but those are very uncommon.

It's a simplified analysis of injury data, but the trends apply to a lot of players - e.g. Gaborik, Crosby, Lupul, Hall, Malkin, Havlat, Letang, Lindros, etc. And those are just guys off the top of my head - high profile ones. It's not even counting the rank and file which should follow the same trend. Players who are injured a lot early in their careers tend to be injured a lot later. There are some outliers like Williams who had a lot of early injuries, but has been quite healthy since, but they are few and far between.

It's something that GM's don't appear to put much weight on, however. You can bet if Couture makes it to UFA in a couple years, he's going to get ridiculous offers, even though there is high confidence that he's going to miss huge chunks of games. I'd love to see a more detailed study done, wish I had the time to do it myself

Also from the article you referenced: "...it says that injuries become more common with age overall, but that a previous injury history predicts the risk of future injury. It also says that injuries early in a career are more predictive of future injuries than injuries later in the career. "

Kopitar has been extremely healthy thus far in his career, and while anything can happen he seems to be one of the sturdier players in the league.

 

[King'sPawn]

Here's an interesting study I found last year:

http://www.healthgeomatics.com/predicting-nhl-hockey-injuries/

In a nutshell, this guy's data crunching says that injuries are lower up to age 30, then increase after that. I would say it's definitely likely Kopitar would be less healthy overall, you can't fight age.

What Kopitar has going for him is that he has had relatively few injuries in his past, mostly small nagging ones and only the one big leg injury which doesn't appear to have slowed him down. He has a better chance of being healthy than most. RyJo, on the other hand, has had even fewer injuries, the big one being that weird thigh thing he had.

I don't think Kopitar is going to be on IR much even in his later years, but he's likely going to be on there more than RyJo is. Likely isn't a certainty, there's always outliers, but those are very uncommon.

It's a simplified analysis of injury data, but the trends apply to a lot of players - e.g. Gaborik, Crosby, Lupul, Hall, Malkin, Havlat, Letang, Lindros, etc. And those are just guys off the top of my head - high profile ones. It's not even counting the rank and file which should follow the same trend. Players who are injured a lot early in their careers tend to be injured a lot later. There are some outliers like Williams who had a lot of early injuries, but has been quite healthy since, but they are few and far between.

It's something that GM's don't appear to put much weight on, however. You can bet if Couture makes it to UFA in a couple years, he's going to get ridiculous offers, even though there is high confidence that he's going to miss huge chunks of games. I'd love to see a more detailed study done, wish I had the time to do it myself

That's the thing: age is a factor of injury risk, but there are a lot of factors. A lot of the players cited either have a history of multiple injuries or play a style that also puts them at risk for injuries.

Which is my point. Is he a higher risk for injuries? Sure. Does that automatically make a younger player healthier? No.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

RyJo is nowhere close to Kopitar. Kopitar's literal career worse year was still even with RyJo's. What a stupid argument.

 

[BigKing]

The argument isn't "right now" but rather that the Kings have a better chance to be a contender in the future with RyJo and his lower age/cap hit than Kopitar and his higher age/cap hit, if I am reading correctly. That isn't a crazy statement.

Kopitar is a better player. Is he worth that much more in cap hit over the length of RyJo's contract? Probably not.

If you don't think the Kings can contend right now, then you'd want RyJo and his contract. If you think they can win a Cup in the next two-three seasons with little cap flexibility, you'd take Kopitar.

This is assuming you remove any emotion from the decision.

**** the off-season. This is all so boring.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

After reaching 80+ points in his fourth pro season, many thought Kopitar would be close to a point per game producing center while also being one of the best two-way centers in the game. Back then, he'd consistently take 200+ shots and had a great shooting percentage.

That's changed over the past three seasons, and I feel like a large part of the team's failures and ineptness offensively falls on his shoulders, especially now that he's the captain and the highest paid player on the team.

If he was producing like he normally did in the past and the team was consistently in the playoffs, we wouldn't be having this discussion, and Sutter and Lombardi might still be employed.

 

[deeshamrock]

Carolina Hurricanes
✔
@NHLCanes

[NEWS] #Canes, @brettpesce22 Agree to Six-Year Extension #Redvolution

6 yrs, 4.02 AAV

Good deal. That Canes d, Pesce, Faulk, Slavin and Hanafin is shaping into the top 4 in the east. And all under 25. Sweet

and they have more young d growing nicely at the farm.

 

[KingsFan7824]

The argument isn't "right now" but rather that the Kings have a better chance to be a contender in the future with RyJo and his lower age/cap hit than Kopitar and his higher age/cap hit, if I am reading correctly. That isn't a crazy statement.

Not crazy, but the better question is how does it even matter? Columbus wasn't going to trade Johansen for Kopitar at any point, since they would also figure they would have a longer chance to contend with the younger and cheaper center of the two, so where does the comparison even come from? What does one have to do with the other?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The argument isn't "right now" but rather that the Kings have a better chance to be a contender in the future with RyJo and his lower age/cap hit than Kopitar and his higher age/cap hit, if I am reading correctly. That isn't a crazy statement.

Kopitar is a better player. Is he worth that much more in cap hit over the length of RyJo's contract? Probably not.

If you don't think the Kings can contend right now, then you'd want RyJo and his contract. If you think they can win a Cup in the next two-three seasons with little cap flexibility, you'd take Kopitar.

This is assuming you remove any emotion from the decision.

**** the off-season. This is all so boring.

But that's the point--you'd still be paying RyJo 8 million. It's not a significant enough difference to make the Kings a non-contender EVEN ASSUMING RyJo somehow becomes better than Kopitar all-around in that span. It's a stupid, fallacious scenario based on a 'what if' fantasy trade of Kopitar for Johansen that one poster posited and keeps falling back on. Especially given his argument implodes upon itself in that all the cited sources suggest it's all downhill for RyJo production-wise from here.

With the exception of literally last season only, Kopitar is a far superior player to Ryan Johansen in every situation BUT the PP (which may not even be an advantage, might just be a systematic thing), which is why I don't at all understand this fantasy scenario where the Kings are a contender WITH Ryan Johansen but NOT a contender with Kopitar.

I don't want to bash this guy, but this forum makes me feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I never thought I'd see the day when Kopitar's entire body of work gets undercut and questioned on the Kings' home forum while another above-average 1C gets mysteriously exalted.

 

[BigKing]

I think "the point" is it is just a hypothetical scenario, like a thread on the Poll Board. Hence why I said how boring the off-season is. It's even more boring than the April 2017 Kings.

To the "Kopitar bashing", K17 is arguing about the future and not the past. I'm sure he is grateful for Kopitar's efforts in being a key factor in the Kings 2012-14 run: we all are.

Dustin Brown has played his entire career here and is on a path to surpass Dave Taylor for most games played in a Kings uniform. This fact and his play in the 2012 run should have his jersey in the rafters one day, IMO. That being said, no player has been **** on more by this fan base than Brown the last few seasons. Doesn't mean that his play pre-2014 isn't appreciated.

Kopitar is in the same boat but with higher expectations for performance and a much larger contract. I can't fault anyone for being very worried since we've all witnessed players on this team get paid and then immediately go into the tank while not getting back out of it. Still love the guy, but if he plays like trash out there then he's going to be called trash. I believe he will bounce back but I can't fault anyone for thinking he won't. He sucked in 2015 too and needed Lucic next to him to play well in '16. There is no Lucic coming for him so he's going to have to be assertive and try to actually score himself. Hopefully, the "new" offense or whatever will lead to this.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Kopitar is in the same boat but with higher expectations for performance and a much larger contract. I can't fault anyone for being very worried since we've all witnessed players on this team get paid and then immediately go into the tank while not getting back out of it. Still love the guy, but if he plays like trash out there then he's going to be called trash. I believe he will bounce back but I can't fault anyone for thinking he won't. He sucked in 2015 too and needed Lucic next to him to play well in '16. There is no Lucic coming for him so he's going to have to be assertive and try to actually score himself. Hopefully, the "new" offense or whatever will lead to this.

I'm fine with all of this. In fact, if it were simply all based on "I don't think Kopitar is going to bounce back," I can be ok with that too even if I disagree with it. I think it's appropriate to be skeptical or have a certain level of worry. What I completely disagree with is this idea that RyJo somehow makes the team better even in the near future while using romanticized version of RyJo and the pinata version of Kopitar. Just be honest in assessment. There's no guarantee that Ryan Johansen even has a season bigger than those he's had thus far; in fact, all the stats presented say he won't. Yet we're speaking as if it's guaranteed that 25 year old RyJo is going to certainly be the superior player to Anze Kopitar as soon as next year when there's no real guarantee he'll be better at ANY point in Kopitar's contract. I don't like the absolutes, I don't like the complete discounting of one player's past to bash him while we exalt the other in spite of his past, and I don't like that an 8 million dollar deal with a thus-far-lesser player is some major discount over a 10 million deal with a historically absolutely superior player. That's why I'm upset about the revisionist history being used to dictate the future with such certainty, especially when the measures used to evaluate so suggest the opposite.

Now I DO agree we're in the boring ass part of the summer. And I DO agree that our big money players should be critiqued--but using a grass-is-greener lens that is actually totally faulty is a silly way to do it.

Edit: And the original 'point' was that one player had much more value, who would we rather have, and the likelihood of bad things happening in the future, and my critique is that when you apply the same framework similarly it already shows the 8 million dollar player to be lesser even going forward.

 

[Fishhead]

That's the thing: age is a factor of injury risk, but there are a lot of factors. A lot of the players cited either have a history of multiple injuries or play a style that also puts them at risk for injuries.

Which is my point. Is he a higher risk for injuries? Sure. Does that automatically make a younger player healthier? No.

This completely sums up injuries. All you can do is look at some data and get some trends. Play style, coaches, bad luck - everything contributes.

Even though I think its a fair statement and highly probable AK is going to see more injuries than RyJo going forward, I still wouldn't trade him for him. AK is a tier above that the extra $2M or so won't come close to bridging.

 

[KINGS17]

If you're suggesting the Kings would be a contender with RyJo but not with Kopitar, we're further apart on their abilities than I've ever imagined.

I am suggesting Johansen will be more productive than Kopitar over the next 8 years, and for $2M a season less in cap hit.

If you disagree, then yes we are far apart. If you think the Kings could trade Kopitar today for a player similar to what Johansen was two years ago: 22 years old, rising star, still on a cheap contract, I'm all for it.

Many here consider Kopitar as immovable, and not just because he has an NMC. I think that alone should tell you something.

 

[KINGS17]

But that's the point--you'd still be paying RyJo 8 million. It's not a significant enough difference to make the Kings a non-contender EVEN ASSUMING RyJo somehow becomes better than Kopitar all-around in that span. It's a stupid, fallacious scenario based on a 'what if' fantasy trade of Kopitar for Johansen that one poster posited and keeps falling back on. Especially given his argument implodes upon itself in that all the cited sources suggest it's all downhill for RyJo production-wise from here.

With the exception of literally last season only, Kopitar is a far superior player to Ryan Johansen in every situation BUT the PP (which may not even be an advantage, might just be a systematic thing), which is why I don't at all understand this fantasy scenario where the Kings are a contender WITH Ryan Johansen but NOT a contender with Kopitar.

I don't want to bash this guy, but this forum makes me feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I never thought I'd see the day when Kopitar's entire body of work gets undercut and questioned on the Kings' home forum while another above-average 1C gets mysteriously exalted.

The past is the past. We can look at Kopitar's entire body of work, but the trend is not good for him. He had a very good season in a contract year. Yeah, we have never seen that before from other players. Not sure why you assign superstar qualities to Kopitar. He is a great star, but he isn't a superstar.

I don't exalt Johansen. He is simply a player I suggested the Kings should have looked at if they were going to move Kopitar. The Kings likely would have gotten more than Johansen in such a deal, so there is that to consider as well. Johansen's recent signing simply makes him a point of the discussion.

Posters like yourself scoffed at the notion, and now it doesn't seem so far-fetched when you look at the future. I think it was obvious how this was going to go, I just didn't expect the contract to look so bad one year into it.

Kopitar will likely be unable to out perform Johansen over the next eight years. I think you should check your own prescription.

 

[Sacha Baron Corbin]

I've skewered Kopitar probably more than anyone on this forum after his season, but yeah this RyJo-Kopi argument is crazy. Johansen has yet to score over 71 in a season. Kopitar has one season of under 60 points of production in 12 years, well 2 if you count the 2013 lockout year.

Kopitar has been much more consistent offensively and that's not including the strong two way play you get with him.

Not to mention Johansen will be coming back from a fairly severe injury. Who knows how that will affect him going forward

 

[King'sPawn]

The past is the past. We can look at Kopitar's entire body of work, but the trend is not good for him. He had a very good season in a contract year. Yeah, we have never seen that before from other players. Not sure why you assign superstar qualities to Kopitar. He is a great star, but he isn't a superstar.

I don't exalt Johansen. He is simply a player I suggested the Kings should have looked at if they were going to move Kopitar. The Kings likely would have gotten more than Johansen in such a deal, so there is that to consider as well. Johansen's recent signing simply makes him a point of the discussion.

Posters like yourself scoffed at the notion, and now it doesn't seem so far-fetched when you look at the future. I think it was obvious how this was going to go, I just didn't expect the contract to look so bad one year into it.

Kopitar will likely be unable to out perform Johansen over the next eight years. I think you should check your own prescription.

Why would Kopitar return Johansen+ if Johansen is younger, better, and cheaper?
Especially since Johansen had a pretty good season in a contract year.

It's like you're talking in circles and only apply criticisms to the half that supports your argument.

 

[KINGS17]

I've skewered Kopitar probably more than anyone on this forum after his season, but yeah this RyJo-Kopi argument is crazy. Johansen has yet to score over 71 in a season. Kopitar has one season of under 60 points of production in 12 years, well 2 if you count the 2013 lockout year.

Kopitar has been much more consistent offensively and that's not including the strong two way play you get with him.

Not to mention Johansen will be coming back from a fairly severe injury. Who knows how that will affect him going forward

One last time, it is about their play going forward, not about what Kopitar accomplished 2, 3, or 5 years ago.

Also, it is not necessarily about Johansen. He is just an example. Pick any player who was 22 years of age and a top young forward two years ago. Any 24 year old forward, putting up 60+ points a season, with a cap hit of $2M less per season, holds more value than Kopitar going forward.

 

[KINGS17]

Why would Kopitar return Johansen+ if Johansen is younger, better, and cheaper?
Especially since Johansen had a pretty good season in a contract year.

It's like you're talking in circles and only apply criticisms to the half that supports your argument.

Two years ago Kopitar would have yielded Johansen + in a trade, or Galchenyuk +, or pick any young forward +.

You are so desperate to defend Kopitar's value going forward, you can't even follow the argument. Kopitar can't be moved today. Most GMs would want him on his present deal.

 

[Sacha Baron Corbin]

One last time, it is about their play going forward, not about what Kopitar accomplished 2, 3, or 5 years ago.

Also, it is not necessarily about Johansen. He is just an example. Pick any player who was 22 years of age and a top young forward two years ago. Any 24 year old forward, putting up 60+ points a season, with a cap hit of $2M less per season, holds more value than Kopitar going forward.

Yet you keep going back to this argument of "well in the past Kopitar would have returned this"?

Contradicting arguments aside, the only piece of evidence you have to support this arguement of Johansen>Kopitar is one outlier of a season, where Kopitar was playing hurt for the majority of it, and the entire team had a bad year offensively outside of Carter.

And again, RyJo had a solid year, but he will be trying to come back from a serious injury that happened very late in the season. I wouldn't be surprised if it affected him going forward

 

[KINGS17]

Yet you keep going back to this argument of "well in the past Kopitar would have returned this"?

Contradicting arguments aside, the only piece of evidence you have to support this arguement of Johansen>Kopitar is one outlier of a season, where Kopitar was playing hurt for the majority of it, and the entire team had a bad year offensively outside of Carter.

And again, RyJo had a solid year, but he will be trying to come back from a serious injury that happened very late in the season. I wouldn't be surprised if it affected him going forward

There was one opportunity for the Kings to trade Kopitar, and it was before he signed his $80M deal. That was two years ago.

The only piece of evidence? Kopitar is going to be 30 years old soon. Look at the trends for production of players over 30 years of age and how rapidly they decline. One season isn't the only evidence.

Kopitar gets paid to lead the entire team. He is one of the big reasons the entire team had a bad year offensively.

 

[Sacha Baron Corbin]

There was one opportunity for the Kings to trade Kopitar, and it was before he signed his $80M deal. That was two years ago.

The only piece of evidence? Kopitar is going to be 30 years old soon. Look at the trends for production of players over 30 years of age and how rapidly they decline. One season isn't the only evidence.

Kopitar gets paid to lead the entire team. He is one of the big reasons the entire team had a bad year offensively.

This is completely ridiculous, the Kings should've traded Kopitar after a season where he scored 74 points and won a Selke? Everyone knew he was getting the Toews contract but you don't trade your franchise center who had nine straight seasons of 60+ point production while playing Selke level defense. I would love to go back and find your posts from 2015, because I can almost gurantee you were advocating for Kopitar to be resigned at the time.

I have completely lambasted Kopitar for his poor season, but your argument is nothing but revisionist history, you don't trade future HOF centers in the middle of their prime, especially when they are coming off one of the best years of their career

 

[damacles1156]

This is completely ridiculous, the Kings should've traded Kopitar after a season where he scored 74 points and won a Selke? Everyone knew he was getting the Toews contract but you don't trade your franchise center who had nine straight seasons of 60+ point production while playing Selke level defense. I would love to go back and find your posts from 2015, because I can almost gurantee you were advocating for Kopitar to be resigned at the time.

I have completely lambasted Kopitar for his poor season, but your argument is nothing but revisionist history, you don't trade future HOF centers in the middle of their prime, especially when they are coming off one of the best years of their career

You would be wrong.


Myself and Kings 17 have always been outspoken about handing Kopitar 80 million dollars at the age he was going to be resigned.

I wanted Kopitar to remain a King, but not at 10 million dollar cap hit.

I still stand by my statement, it was a mistake for Lombardi to offer Kopitar the contract.

Gabo as well, I hated that Gabo contract since day one of him signing it.

The only praise I gave Lombardi for Gabo's disaster of a contract, the Cap hit was low.

 

[King'sPawn]

Two years ago Kopitar would have yielded Johansen + in a trade, or Galchenyuk +, or pick any young forward +.

You are so desperate to defend Kopitar's value going forward, you can't even follow the argument. Kopitar can't be moved today. Most GMs would want him on his present deal.

I'm not defending Kopitar's value. You are making terrible arguments.

You're saying the Kings should have traded away Kopitar 2 years ago with one year left on his contract, thinking a trading partner would have offered up Johansen+. But now that Kopitar has signed a deal that almost any GM would have signed to retain him, Johansen is the better option, because:

- he will be the better player (despite Kopitar having multiple seasons of outproducing Johansen's best season while being a top defensive forward)
- he will be healthier (even though Kopitar has been one of the more durable players in the league)

Yeah. I can't keep up with your logical gymnastics.

You embody the typical HF mindset that younger is better, and an organization should get rid of every player right before the value starts trending downwards, thinking that slotting in a younger player with higher assumed value suddenly makes a better team.

Asset management is important, but you underestimate the importance of people management. And how trading away a top player who actually became the captain, shortly after winning the cup, would affect the teammates.

The players may strictly be "assets" to you. But that's not how people get treated in successful organizations.

 

[kingsboy11]

Two years ago Kopitar would have yielded Johansen + in a trade, or Galchenyuk +, or pick any young forward +.

You are so desperate to defend Kopitar's value going forward, you can't even follow the argument. Kopitar can't be moved today. Most GMs would want him on his present deal.

Come on man this isn't NHL 17. You've said the window to trade Kopitar was after our last cup win. And in theory, you're right. His value was at its absolute highest. The problem with that is no GM in their right mind would trade their #1 franchise center after that emotional cup run. 2nd, No GM in their right mind would gut their franchise for a single player while his value is at his absolute highest and especially not when the players contract is up for a 10 million cap hit after the next season.

Lets go back to your proposed window for trading him. Lets say hypothetically the Blue Jackets was interested in Kopitar after 2014 and was willing to trade Johansen and Lombardi was willing to negotiate. Now you say they would add on top of Johansen. They trade Johansen, 1st round pick, and few other high-mid level prospects and both teams go on their merry way. The Blue Jackets now have to win the Stanley Cup in 2015-16 because Kopitar's deal is up at the end of the year. If they don't win the cup, they now have to make the decision to either sign Kopitar to this ridiculous 10 million cap hit who is on the downside of his career or let him go to free agency. And judging by the Blue Jackets season in 2015-16, they weren't a good team. In fact they were one of the worst teams that season and just gifted the Kings a top 3 pick. Congratulations, you've now wasted a bunch of assets on a player and are now in a worse position that what you were already in. This is the same scenario the Kings were in with Lucic only this kind of deal would cripple your franchise and get your ass fired.

And using your own graph that you provided in the previous page, why would they trade for this center that's going to start declining and demand this huge contract, when they already have these players like Johansen/Galchenyuk who are cheaper and younger and are supposedly going to be better than Kopitar?