Wow, we absolutely are. Notice Mrazek in last year's playoffs? He's only getting better. This Larkin kid? Hear he's pretty good. Nyquist, Tatar, DeKeyser, Abdelkader, Helm, Glendening (shutting down Johnson is no small feat). We have quality scorers on our 3rd line in Pulkkinen, Richards, Sheahan, and while Jurco's struggled he's far too young to write off. That's not even mentioning the prospects in the AHL and elsewhere.
And with datsyuk injured, Z worn out, and Kronwall suspended we lost last year. Your best players at your key positions carry you. The rest of those guys are a nice supporting cast but they aren't going to headline the show.
Who cares who the last Cup winner was? No two are ever the same anyway. If a team can't win with elite players who are older then you should be advocating trading them while we can. They may not win on their own but as shown above, they have a pretty damn solid supporting cast to help carry the load.
We won't trade them, and all of us know it. And at some point, they are worth more for stabilizing the team and mentoring the next group. Though, I've also been pretty gung-ho for shedding a bit of other weight (Gator, Helm, Quincey, Smith/Kindl -though, who hasn't with those two?, Miller, not signing Richards). And we should care about past cup winners because when all of one team in the past thirty-five years (and even then I didn't check Carolina, so it might be none) has won it all relying on mid-30something stars, it might kinda speak to how unlikely it is to happen now.
When did 30 become old? Dmen can often play well into their late 30s. Not saying Byfuglien will (not saying he can't either) but 3 years is just ridiculously pessimistic. And if we're talking a top pair dman under say 26, then we're talking a whole lot more than just Tatar.
Again, don't think it's reasonable to expect him to suddenly trail off in 3 years.
I think his offense will largely stick around, but he's a big guy who has the occasional mobility problems that go with that. His occasional weight problems are not going to help, and he's not the greatest positional guy as it is. With the weight issues, getting older, I think we'll also see him spend more time on the IR, or time he should spend on the IR but plays through it with lessened effectiveness.
If someone is looking to move a top pair guy on the right side of 30, I think a package that starts with Tatar and a 1st is a good start, depending on the needs of the other team. No one trades a guy like that unless they have to, and no one gets a king's ransom in these deals. With Buff, I think you're overpaying with your offer, and that Winnipeg won't deal him anyway until after the season or if they are clearly out of the playoffs. At which point, we're dealing a pick for his negotiating rights, and nothing else.
And what I'm saying with the forward prospects, is we have the internal assets to mitigate Tatar's loss. Yes we'd be fortunate, doesn't mean it's unreasonable (or even unlikely). Mantha and Svechnikov both have good chances to be better than Tatar. And I can't even conceive of the possibility of those two, plus the others I mentioned, not at least matching Tatar's production. Either individually, or by committee.
We thought the same thing with our blueline prospects a couple of years ago. And none of the prospects will cover for his loss this year, and with already relying on so many older players up front, we're not in that great of a position to deal off one of the few younger guys who actually has something of a track record of producing.
If we find a replacement for Kronwall, we're in the same position we're in now. Treading water, with one top pair D who's expected to shoulder a ridiculous load babysitting a sub-par defense. That's the problem, we need more than just Kronwall.
Three years down the road and that's what an aging, slowing Byfuglien would be, with Kronwall in his last year and in his late30s.
We're just going to have to disagree on 13 and 40's ability to be effective over 4 rounds. There are many examples of older players playing key roles on Cup winners (Bourque, for example). 13 is still a PPG guy, even 40 so far this season.
When was the last season both were healthy at the end of the year and through a playoff run? Yeah, Lids was phenomenally healthy late in his career, too (aside from getting speared in the junk), but Z&D do not have a great track record for staying healthy. I hope they do get/stay healthy this year, but I don't think it's something we can count on.
I agree that it's important for the kids to step up and compensate for 13 and 40's declines. But the fact remains the same. We are going nowhere with this defense, now and especially after those two retire. Byfuglien would make us contenders now, and would help the D after 13 retires in a few years. By then, Mantha, Svechnikov, Bertuzzi, Athanasiou, etc. will have matured and Tatar's absence will not hurt this team.
I don't think Byfuglien would be a great help after 13 retires in two years, and I'm not counting on anyone outside of Mantha or Svechnikov being above a bottom6 forward from our prospect group. Maybe a couple will play up the lineup on the wing similar to how we've shifted Abdelkader and Helm up the lineup (and apparently now Glendening...), but not to be a true top6 forward in the vein of Z,D, Franzen, Nyquist, or Tatar.
This year, I think we've already goofed by not playing more kids on the blueline, and I wouldn't go shopping for a D until later in the year when we have a better read on our health.
