Armchair GMs: What moves would you make to maximize the roster?

[ArGarBarGar]

With how bad our collective defense is, losing Dekeyser right now would not be advisable.

Okay, so we are back to square one. A team with one top-pairing defenseman, a couple top-4 guys, and a bunch of bottom-pairing/AHL fodder. That is a problem.

I get that losing DK isn't ideal (and would not happen under realistic circumstances unless the upgrade is significant), but you need to make moves if you want to create a winning team with what we have.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Okay, so we are back to square one. A team with one top-pairing defenseman, a couple top-4 guys, and a bunch of bottom-pairing/AHL fodder. That is a problem.

I get that losing DK isn't ideal (and would not happen under realistic circumstances unless the upgrade is significant), but you need to make moves if you want to create a winning team with what we have.

I recognize that, but generally, you trade assets that you have a surplus of for an asset you need, generally with a team who has a surplus of what you need and needs what you have in surplus.

Nyquist + Svechnikov + a 2nd was enough to land Shattenkirk according to Blues fans over on the trade forum.

That's the kind of trade that would be a long term upgrade. While we lose Goose and Svech, we still have Mantha, Bertuzzi, Holmstrom, and AA.

Or, more logically, we make a trade for Hamhuis or Byfuglien between now and the deadline, they will not cost nearly as much as Shattenkirk considering they are expiring UFAS. Canucks fan are on board with trading Jurco and a 2nd for Hamhuis, for instance.


The biggest problem is that a large portion of the league are looking to upgrade their defense, because so many teams have terrible defenses or are already looking at a lot of injuries. The supply is minimal but the demand is high.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Tatar really doesn't belong with those other 2 right now, and he could absolutely be a difference maker in a playoff series, even if he hasn't been just yet.

to me he is a solid but not spectacular undersized 2nd liner winger who will likely produce between 45-65pts a season

tatar isnt a top line centre or a stud blueliner or elite goalie

tatar isnt a dynamic take the game over on his own winger

tatar isnt an elite combination of size plus skill

tatar isnt a great thinker who sees the game 5 steps ahead of everyone else

he certainly is a guy that is needed to fill out a roster but can easily be found multiple times over

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

to me he is a solid but not spectacular undersized 2nd liner winger who will likely produce between 45-65pts a season

tatar isnt a top line centre or a stud blueliner or elite goalie

tatar isnt a dynamic take the game over on his own winger

tatar isnt an elite combination of size plus skill

tatar isnt a great thinker who sees the game 5 steps ahead of everyone else

he certainly is a guy that is needed to fill out a roster but can easily be found multiple times over

The numbers disagree with you.

For one, 45-65 points a year is VERY good for a winger in today's NHL, that's borderline first line wing production.

Tatar is an elite puck possession player, top 5 in corsi last year, produces almost exclusively on ES too.

Tatar is already a lower end first line winger. Scoring 30 goals in the NHL now is extremely impressive, and it's what he was 1 shy of doing last year.

So I mean, I don't know what more you want.

Corsi, Fenwick, possession, basic scoring statistics, eye test. They all disagree with you. Tatar is really good at hockey.

Also, plenty of first line players don't see the game 5 steps ahead of them.


Nyquist is a gem too, I was looking at zone entry stats the other day, holy hell, Nyquist is a god damn beast at penetrating the offensive zone, not to mention he's one of the best power play producers in the league.

Being a 60 point winger in the NHL is not the same as it was 10 years ago, I can tell you that. In today's NHL? That's premium production.

 

[Frk It]

to me he is a solid but not spectacular undersized 2nd liner winger who will likely produce between 45-65pts a season

tatar isnt a top line centre or a stud blueliner or elite goalie

tatar isnt a dynamic take the game over on his own winger

tatar isnt an elite combination of size plus skill

tatar isnt a great thinker who sees the game 5 steps ahead of everyone else

he certainly is a guy that is needed to fill out a roster but can easily be found multiple times over

25-30 goal 50-60 pt wingers are NOT easily found. And damn sure not for 2.75 million dollars.

 

[The Zermanator]

Wonder why we're not in on this:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/maple-leafs-flames-canucks-pursuing-top-russian-prospect/

There’s a new prospect coming to town, and teams are already starting to line up to get a look.

Russian defenceman Nikita Zaitsev has 13 points (four goals, nine assists) in 22 games with the KHL’s CSKA Moscow this season, and has many NHL clubs excited about his strong two-way game.

According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Zaitsev’s agent has said the 24-year-old is coming to North America next year.

Several teams — the Toronto Maple Leafs, Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks among them — will fly overseas to see him play in a tournament next week. The Philadelphia Flyers and Los Angeles Kings are also said to have a strong interest in the 24-year-old. Friedman also noted that some teams are already in the process of meeting with him.

 

[detredWINgs]

Wonder why we're not in on this:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/maple-leafs-flames-canucks-pursuing-top-russian-prospect/

No idea. But we're getting schooled in defenseman development. Ericsson is basically the only top 4 defenseman we've developed in a lifetime, unless you want to count Dekeyser who has basically been the same package since he landed, which suggests he was close to a finished product upon his arrival. Meanwhile, every year teams are pulling in guys who they've developed into studs: Parayko, Klingberg, Faulk, Savard, Vatanen, Severeon...Always a new wave of defenseman and we've got none to speak of. In the meantime, Smith, Kindl, XO, Marchy and Sproul are struggling. Most have stagnated or regressed and any improvement, looking at Sproul, has taken a painstaking amount of time.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

25-30 goal 50-60 pt wingers are NOT easily found. And damn sure not for 2.75 million dollars.

1. because i dont see tatar as capable of doing so every year for the next 7-10

2. i dont see him not getting a pay raise

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

The numbers disagree with you.

For one, 45-65 points a year is VERY good for a winger in today's NHL, that's borderline first line wing production.

Tatar is an elite puck possession player, top 5 in corsi last year, produces almost exclusively on ES too.

Tatar is already a lower end first line winger. Scoring 30 goals in the NHL now is extremely impressive, and it's what he was 1 shy of doing last year.

So I mean, I don't know what more you want.

Corsi, Fenwick, possession, basic scoring statistics, eye test. They all disagree with you. Tatar is really good at hockey.

Also, plenty of first line players don't see the game 5 steps ahead of them.


Nyquist is a gem too, I was looking at zone entry stats the other day, holy hell, Nyquist is a god damn beast at penetrating the offensive zone, not to mention he's one of the best power play producers in the league.

Being a 60 point winger in the NHL is not the same as it was 10 years ago, I can tell you that. In today's NHL? That's premium production.

first off those five qualities were not meant to mean a player had to fit into all five so that clears up your last point

as far as corsi and fenwick i dont know much about these advanced stats, are they individual based 100%, can they be influenced by linemates(datsyuk for example), can they be influenced by when during the game you see your most icetime, can they be influenced by where on the ice you tend to start your shift, etc?

lots of wingers have and can score 30 goals in a season who i dont consider elite

i dont feel when i watch tatar that he on his own can or could carry his entire line, game after game season after season(like a datsyuk can) so thats my eye test

 

[Classicnamesup]

Only thing for this team - fire and lots of it

 

[Flowah]

as far as corsi and fenwick i dont know much about these advanced stats, are they individual based 100%, can they be influenced by linemates(datsyuk for example), can they be influenced by when during the game you see your most icetime, can they be influenced by where on the ice you tend to start your shift, etc?

lots of wingers have and can score 30 goals in a season who i dont consider elite

i dont feel when i watch tatar that he on his own can or could carry his entire line, game after game season after season(like a datsyuk can) so thats my eye test

Corsi and Fenwick are influenced by linemates, but you can tease out an individual's performance by comparing performances of different combinations. Tatar didn't play 100% of his minutes with the same 4 players. By comparing what happens to his Corsi/Fenwick when playing with a bunch of different players, you can see what his individual contribution to Corsi/Fenwick is.

Turns out, it's pretty damn good. Datsyuk's is also really damn good.

 

[BinCookin]

first off those five qualities were not meant to mean a player had to fit into all five so that clears up your last point

as far as corsi and fenwick i dont know much about these advanced stats, are they individual based 100%, can they be influenced by linemates(datsyuk for example), can they be influenced by when during the game you see your most icetime, can they be influenced by where on the ice you tend to start your shift, etc?

lots of wingers have and can score 30 goals in a season who i dont consider elite

i dont feel when i watch tatar that he on his own can or could carry his entire line, game after game season after season(like a datsyuk can) so thats my eye test

Steven Stamkos 43
Rick Nash 42
John Tavares 38
Tyler Seguin 37
Vladimir Tarasenko 37
Joe Pavelski 37
Max Pacioretty 37
Jamie Benn 35
Zach Parise 33
Corey Perry 33
Jiri Hudler 31
Nick Foligno 31
Radim Vrbata 31
Sean Monahan 31

Ok so last season a total of 14 players scored 30+ goals. (That is it?)


Tyler Johnson 29
Nikita Kucherov 29
Jarome Iginla 29
Tomas Tatar 29
Sidney Crosby 28
Evgeni Malkin 28
Jonathan Toews 28
Jaden Schwartz 28
Jeff Carter 28
Scott Hartnell 28
Wayne Simmonds 28
Logan Couture 27
Patrick Kane 27
James van Riemsdyk 27
Gustav Nyquist 27
Mike Hoffman 27
Marian Gaborik 27
Mike Cammalleri 27
Ryan Johansen 26
Pavel Datsyuk 26
Mark Stone 26
Filip Forsberg 26
Blake Wheeler 26
Tomas Plekanec 26
David Backes 26
Claude Giroux 25
Ryan Getzlaf 25
Phil Kessel 25
Patric Hornqvist 25
Anders Lee 25


I dont know man even when u go down to 25+ goals. This is pretty good company for our 2nd and 4th rounders.

Also i suggest lowering expectations. Tatar and Nyquist will not be Datsyuk. Because NO ONE looks like datsyuk does, and that includes crosby, stamkos and malkin. None of them look as skilled to be honest. Datsyuk for whatver reason cant put up their numbers though.

 

[Frk It]

We should have signed Cody Franson (like I said). Short term deal and better than half our defenseman.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Corsi and Fenwick are influenced by linemates, but you can tease out an individual's performance by comparing performances of different combinations. Tatar didn't play 100% of his minutes with the same 4 players. By comparing what happens to his Corsi/Fenwick when playing with a bunch of different players, you can see what his individual contribution to Corsi/Fenwick is.

Turns out, it's pretty damn good. Datsyuk's is also really damn good.

are they influenced by when in the game you get more of a percentage of your ice time, ie when you have the lead vs are losing, begining vs end of a period?

are they only ES stats, ie all other icetime is removed

are they influenced by where on the ice you tend to start your shifts, ie offensive vs defensive side of center?

how much of tatars ice time was he on the ice with zetterberg or datsyuk vs miller or glendening?

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I dont know man even when u go down to 25+ goals. This is pretty good company for our 2nd and 4th rounders.

Also i suggest lowering expectations. Tatar and Nyquist will not be Datsyuk. Because NO ONE looks like datsyuk does, and that includes crosby, stamkos and malkin. None of them look as skilled to be honest. Datsyuk for whatver reason cant put up their numbers though.

this was not meant to be me saying tatar isnt good as i said right from the start that he is

this was only meant to be that i WOULD include a guy like tatar plus a dekeyser in a trade to land a cornerstone top pairing dman simply because i believe that dman is more important to a franchises success then a winger like tatar is

the who would be available and who else would we have to include is all hyperbole at this point but the starting point to me is just this... YES i would

 

[Flowah]

are they influenced by when in the game you get more of a percentage of your ice time, ie when you have the lead vs are losing, begining vs end of a period?

are they only ES stats, ie all other icetime is removed

are they influenced by where on the ice you tend to start your shifts, ie offensive vs defensive side of center?

how much of tatars ice time was he on the ice with zetterberg or datsyuk vs miller or glendening?

You can track all that, yes. Take a look. http://war-on-ice.com/playertable.html

You can track even strength, adjust by score situation. Zone starts are also tracked.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

You can track all that, yes. Take a look. http://war-on-ice.com/playertable.html

You can track even strength, adjust by score situation. Zone starts are also tracked.

ok thats pretty cool

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

http://www.todaysslapshot.com/from-the-ice/mckenzie-byfuglien-would-command-rich-ufa-payday/

And if he goes to the open market this summer, there’s no doubt in my mind that Dustin Byfuglien is going to get a seven year deal in excess of $7 million a year.

Bleh. Scratch that.

 

[odin1981]

Its not surprising Guru on rare occasion if a top pairing D hits UFA you are looking at a minimum of 6 mil per if they are only a #2. If they are a quasi 1-2 or a #1 you are looking at 7-8 million easy if it is a elite #1 start with 9 and go up depending on demand. And that is with the current cap. In 4-5 years you will see true elite #1's get 10+ no questions asked.

The only way you get guys with sweetheart deals are either old over the hills or team bred players that buy in to what there organization is selling (kronner and keith as examples).

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Statistically Buff is superior to Kronwall in every category, and Kronwall has had the luxury of playing with Z/D.

If you think your roster can contend for a cup within the next 2-3 years, you have to try and sign him.

Besides, it's not like the Wings need to save cap space for any defenseman besides DD.