Speculation: Armchair GM Thread - Looking to the offseason

[Porter Stoutheart]

If we fire Hynes and hire someone else you would think they would be here a minimum of 2 to 3 years before they might get fired(and hopefully we would do well enough to not have to fire them) so expecting Taylor to hang around in Milwaukee through another head coachs tenure here is probably unrealistic. A better scenario, if we are firing Hynes and not giving Taylor the HC spot is to convince whoever we do hire to accept Taylor as an assistant coach.

But I'd rather just let Taylor take over as HC. Hes obviously proven he can get a lot out of the guys who will be the core of the team going forward.

There is of course the option of having Taylor 1 more year in Milwaukee to work with the new kids, and just letting Hynes finish out his contract next year with the big club. Then promote Taylor the year after.

I guess I need to see all the names, though. I don't know who this "big name HC" even is. Don't give me some Sutter-like recycled dinosaur. If that's the alternative, then I want Taylor promoted, all day every day.

Or if you can find some other suitable Milwaukee coach who is going to continue to work magic with the new kids while Taylor is promoted, then that's perfect too.

It is basically all overly wishful thinking. Too many crazy-great things have happened lately, such that somehow finding a Dream Scenario that lets us keep up the insane AHL development while simultaneously fixing the big league coaching would be another crazy-great step. That we can't realistically expect, alas.

 

[ShagDaddy]

There is of course the option of having Taylor 1 more year in Milwaukee to work with the new kids, and just letting Hynes finish out his contract next year with the big club. Then promote Taylor the year after.

I guess I need to see all the names, though. I don't know who this "big name HC" even is. Don't give me some Sutter-like recycled dinosaur. If that's the alternative, then I want Taylor promoted, all day every day.

Or if you can find some other suitable Milwaukee coach who is going to continue to work magic with the new kids while Taylor is promoted, then that's perfect too.

It is basically all overly wishful thinking. Too many crazy-great things have happened lately, such that somehow finding a Dream Scenario that lets us keep up the insane AHL development while simultaneously fixing the big league coaching would be another crazy-great step. That we can't realistically expect, alas.

Dan Hinote, there’s your name for the Milwaukee HC job.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Dan Hinote, there’s your name for the Milwaukee HC job.

Works for me... Hinote in Milwaukee and Taylor in Nashville would certainly be in the top percentile of possible outcomes.

 

[BigFatCat999]

aw...you made a thread for me. LOL! And all this time I thought you didn't like me.

Askarov has played enough games in the AHL where the team is thinking of transitioning him to the Preds. I'm looking at Florida's model for Spencer Knight. He was jumped directly from Boston College to the NHL at the same age as Askarov. He is a top 15 goalie in the AHL which means at minimum he's a backup at the NHL. It's time to shop Saros.

As for coach. I have no friggin clue. Hynes is not a Trotz hire so he's not Trotz's dog. Has Hynes done enough to get another job in the NHL? Yes. Taylor might not be a Trotz guy either. He was hired AFTER Trotz was fired as coach. None of y'all are Hynes fans but fact is he's 127-90-18 as coach for the Preds. That's .540, some times it's the coach, sometimes it's the players.

Next year is going to be a frequent flyer program between Milwaukee and Nashville. Most of the forwards are going to be 25 and under AND on ELCs AND 4 1st round forwards are coming too; Glass, Evangelista, Novak, Tomasino, Smith, Parssinen, Afanaseyev, Leonard, Svechkov, Kemell, Schaeffer, L'Heureux. The forward rotation is going to be insane. I could see the bottom 3 lines of Nashville and top 2 lines of Milwaukee being interchangeable. Not to mention the boatload of picks in a forward deep draft.

I still think the Preds are going to make an insane move up in the draft. LOTS of youthful depth in forward in Milwaukee and Nashville. LOTS of picks and Poile's last draft. Poile has NEVER drafted #1 in his career.

That's my rambling.

 

[PredsV82]

We are NOT shopping Saros if we arent doing a total teardown. And I dont see any indication that we are doing a total teardown.

And the worst possible thing for Askarov would be to throw him out in front of a bad team and destroy his confidence.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

We are NOT shopping Saros if we arent doing a total teardown. And I dont see any indication that we are doing a total teardown.

And the worst possible thing for Askarov would be to throw him out in front of a bad team and destroy his confidence.

I’m not sure if Askarov's confidence is destroyable... he seems almost impossibly upbeat... but regardless of that, it's also still obvious to everybody watching him that he has some significant things to work on still. Yes, it's great that he came over to the AHL, got the starting job and a lot more games than he ever has before, but... that's just Step 1. AHL shooters may not completely tear apart his poor trapper technique, but NHL shooters certainly will. He's not ready for prime time yet. He's doing well. On the right track. But not at all ready. If Saros or Lankinen get hurt, he's good enough to temporarily fill in. But there's no option of making him a full-time NHL goalie yet.

 

[BigFatCat999]

We are NOT shopping Saros if we arent doing a total teardown. And I dont see any indication that we are doing a total teardown.

And the worst possible thing for Askarov would be to throw him out in front of a bad team and destroy his confidence.

If he doesn't have confidence, he would not be in the AHL, much less the NHL. 'Big Cat' was thrown into a crappy TBL team. A guy is ready when he is ready.

Now, this is a trade off, what if Saros at 50% gets you Beddard? You God damned right he's shopped. And yes pick #1 will be offered.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If he doesn't have confidence, he would not be in the AHL, much less the NHL. 'Big Cat' was thrown into a crappy TBL team. A guy is ready when he is ready.

Now, this is a trade off, what if Saros at 50% gets you Beddard? You God damned right he's shopped. And yes pick #1 will be offered.

Pick #1 wouldn't be offered, not for Saros, not for anything we have, with or without any amount of retention. It's just not available. Gotta let that one go.

Trading Saros for something else... just not the time. Trotz is broadcasting "retool" not "rebuild", he wants a good team next season. Maybe he'll get that, maybe he won't... just have to wait and let them play the games next season. We're all giddy and optimistic about how the kids are doing right now, so we think Trotz really could have his good team. But maybe things won't really go that well. Just have to wait and see how that goes and how Askarov progresses. A Saros trade scenario could still materialize one day, but it won't be in 2023. I give you my personal guarantee on that.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

If he doesn't have confidence, he would not be in the AHL, much less the NHL. 'Big Cat' was thrown into a crappy TBL team. A guy is ready when he is ready.

Now, this is a trade off, what if Saros at 50% gets you Beddard? You God damned right he's shopped. And yes pick #1 will be offered.

Dude, pass whatever you are smoking!!!!

Saros would be lucky to return anything resembling a top 4 pick this year much less the guy most have billed the best prospect since McDavid.

Have you seen the opinions about Bedards current value when listed with existing NHL players? He's already on top 10 lists.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Dude, pass whatever you are smoking!!!!

Saros would be lucky to return anything resembling a top 4 pick this year much less the guy most have billed the best prospect since McDavid.

Have you seen the opinions about Bedards current value when listed with existing NHL players? He's already on top 10 lists.

The ONLY... absolutely ONLY... way for us to get Bedard: we are 4 pts behind Washington for that #11 spot in the lottery. The odds of us giving up entirely down the stretch and reaching the #11 spot in the draft ranking are low... I'm going to say < 10%.

But say we do get to #11. Then we have a 3% chance of winning the lottery and getting Bedard.

Combined that is a 0.3% chance we get Bedard. Or 99.7% chance therefore that we don't. That's the only angle for talking about us getting Bedard.

And even that will probably evaporate sometime in the next couple weeks when we win a few more games and the teams below us just keep reaching to get that 3% golden ticket for themselves.

 

[herzausstein]

Noone will trade that bedard ticket. Someone MIGHT trade pick 3-5 but i still doubt they would bc the talent in the top of this draft is pretty legit. Id still try to get to that top 5 if possible though.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

We are NOT shopping Saros if we arent doing a total teardown. And I dont see any indication that we are doing a total teardown.

And the worst possible thing for Askarov would be to throw him out in front of a bad team and destroy his confidence.

If he doesn't have confidence, he would not be in the AHL, much less the NHL. 'Big Cat' was thrown into a crappy TBL team. A guy is ready when he is ready.

Now, this is a trade off, what if Saros at 50% gets you Beddard? You God damned right he's shopped. And yes pick #1 will be offered.

He doesn't. You are talking the worst teams in the league that generally need to have a young, cost-controlled superstar to build around going forward. Nobody is trading that for a 27 y/o goaltender with 2 years on his contract. Nobody. We could retain 100% (if it was legal) and still nobody would make that trade.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Noone will trade that bedard ticket. Someone MIGHT trade pick 3-5 but i still doubt they would bc the talent in the top of this draft is pretty legit. Id still try to get to that top 5 if possible though.

Some years there is a team in the Top 5 that just doesn't feel like they belong there, or think they are ready to take a sudden step up and might be ready to deal their pick. It has happened before. But this is probably the tankiest year ever. Probably all the 7 bottom teams are really in a long-view dedicated Tank this year... I can't really imagine any of them moving down from Carlsson/Fantilli/Michkov either.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Noone will trade that bedard ticket. Someone MIGHT trade pick 3-5 but i still doubt they would bc the talent in the top of this draft is pretty legit. Id still try to get to that top 5 if possible though.

There are probably 4-5 teams (Edm, Tor, LA, Buf, Ott) that are most in need of a goalie like Saros (e.g. competitors or on the fringe of competing/making the playoffs and needing a reliable netminder), and none of them will be in top 10 territory (except for the Sabres if they keep collapsing). Montreal also needs a long-term solution, but they're still far enough away they might as well wait til Saros is a pending UFA.

 

[Predsanddead24]

The thing is if Bedard is in fact a McDavid/Crosby level player than that means he is immediately a point per game type player that you have under team control for seven years. Even a team like Toronto/Edmonton that is in their current window and needs a goalie isn't going to give that up.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

The thing is if Bedard is in fact a McDavid/Crosby level player than that means he is immediately a point per game type player that you have under team control for seven years. Even a team like Toronto/Edmonton that is in their current window and needs a goalie isn't going to give that up.

Take it a step further....

What level of 1OA player would he have to be, to be worth a guy like Saros to a team drafting 1st overall?

I'd say there's only been a handful of guys drafted 1OA, who are below the value of a Saros, in my time watching hockey. Some would be worth arguing, but it's just not based on any fact to think the 1OA isn't going to carry TREMENDOUS value even if they don't hit their ceiling.

 

[PredsV82]

If he doesn't have confidence, he would not be in the AHL, much less the NHL. 'Big Cat' was thrown into a crappy TBL team. A guy is ready when he is ready.

Now, this is a trade off, what if Saros at 50% gets you Beddard? You God damned right he's shopped. And yes pick #1 will be offered.

I checked with Dr Strange(fellow surgeon, you know) and he said he looked at 14,000,005 possible futures and the total number of universes where we could trade Saros for Bedard was...


ZERO.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I checked with Dr Strange(fellow surgeon, you know) and he said he looked at 14,000,005 possible futures and the total number of universes where we could trade Saros for Bedard was...


ZERO.

We could add on Evangelista, Kemell, and 2 1sts and I still doubt it would even be considered. And that's an almost crippling number and quality of assets to trade away for one player.

 

[Kat Predator]

Agreed. The only way to get Bedard is to somehow fall to 11th or lower and win the lottery. That seems about as likely as riding an elephant through a keyhole at this point. It could happen, but even with all the injuries and gutting the team at the TDL, we've still been too good to tank that badly that consistently.

 

[LCPreds]

Agreed. The only way to get Bedard is to somehow fall to 11th or lower and win the lottery. That seems about as likely as riding an elephant through a keyhole at this point. It could happen, but even with all the injuries and gutting the team at the TDL, we've still been too good to tank that badly that consistently.

Which really makes you wonder just how terrible some of these teams had to be to get those top picks.

 

[Byrddog]

If he doesn't have confidence, he would not be in the AHL, much less the NHL. 'Big Cat' was thrown into a crappy TBL team. A guy is ready when he is ready.

Now, this is a trade off, what if Saros at 50% gets you Beddard? You God damned right he's shopped. And yes pick #1 will be offered.

Vasi was ready for the number 1 in Tampa and it made Bishop expendable. They did the right thing playing Vasi and Bishop in tandem for one season then traded Bish. This was a mistake the Preds made with Saros riding the bench behind Pekka for three years.

The question now is Askrov ready to move up if so they could move Saros and rotate Lank one Askrov. It really makes no difference next year is Saros is here or not the number of youngsters penciled in right now will make it hard to sniff at a wild card spot. If Saros is here another year his value will drop. His save percentage has went up each of ghe last three years. Trends are trends and this team as penciled in now will have difficulty scoring goals consistently, yes there will be games the my explode for 5 or 6 but moreover the growing pains will keep them at 2 or 3 most nights. Saros win loss the last couple years has not been impressive and OT losses are still losses for a Tender. If he only manages 25 wins next year his return will drop. It’s a hard call. But moving Eckholm does indicate that the rebuild is going to be deeper thsn many of you hope. If Poile was planning to Poile and just make playoffs next year Eckholm would not have been moved.

 

[glenngineer]

Bedard is a pipe dream unless we tank the rest of the way and the way these kids are playing, I don't see that happening. We'll be good enough to stay above 11 and not good enough to make the playoffs. It would be awesome to have a shot at him and hit the lucky ball. Maybe the injuries and lack of experience will finally catch up with this bunch.

With that said, what if Toronto falters in the playoffs again? Matthews is a free agent after next year. Do they shake up their roster? Can they re-sign AM? What if they say, we haven't won with this core group, we're going to see what we can get for him. Does a package with Saros entice Toronto? I don't know that they're unhappy with their goaltending. Samsonov has been good for them but would they be ok with an upgrade? What else has to be added to the package for it to work? Obviously, we only make the move if we have a deal in place for AM. Does a third team have to get involved to move one of Samsonov or Murray?

That's all a big if but there's your franchise center if you can figure out a way to make it work.

Let's look at another option, I believe the Kings had an interest in Saros. Is someone like Byfield a target for us? I don't know that LA is willing to move on from him but they have some good young talent but nothing that is a franchise-level center at this time. Do you roll the dice and hope Byfield or I believe it's Clarke??? that is the other top prospect they've got that can turn into the franchise center or do we end up with a 1B again?

Outside of making any big move or winning the Bedard lottery, I'm honestly ok with going into next season with the three young centers we've got in place (Glass, Novak and Parssinen). I think it was BFC who laid out some lines that I wholeheartedly agree with.

Duchene-Glass-Tomasino
Evangelista-Novak-Sherwood
Forsberg-Johansen-Parssinen
Trenin-Sissons-Smith/Afanasyev

I think the top 9 like that could give other teams fits. You have two lines that have a ton of speed and then you come back with a heavy line of Fil/Joey/Pars, that could be fun to watch.

Even if Johansen doesn't come back, slide Trenin of Egor up to the line with Parssinen and Forsberg and it's still a heavy line to play against.

If Trotz wants, he can go out and nab a few vets in case he feels some of the younger guys aren't quite ready or he wants some depth. Am I thrilled that Sherwood would be in the top 9, not so much but the overall results of that line work and with his motor, he's a great fit with Novak and Evangelista. It's the sum of the parts that I'm happy with and the chemistry is there. Honestly, the top 2 lines last night looked fantastic against Buffalo. The more Glass/Duchene/Tomasino play together, the more I'm liking it.

If anything, I'm more concerned with the D depth than the forward depth, which is something I thought I'd never say. I worry about Josi and his upper-body injury with his concussion history. I worry about the concussion Forsberg has been dealing with, that was a nasty bump. I worry about how Joey is going to recover from having his calf/achilles cut. I worry why we haven't heard much about Parssinen's injury, was it a break, nerve damage?

I think if we can roll the lines above, I think there's enough offense to make up for the lack of an elite center. I wouldn't be opposed to acquiring one if the opportunity presented itself. It comes down to who's out there that might be available. It could be the thing that solidifies the decision to hire Trotz as the GM.

No matter what happens, the kids have been a lot of fun to watch.

 

[Scoresberg]

Good post Glenn.

I agree, re-building the defense will be tricky and am too worried about it. The day will come sooner than later that the josis, webers, subbans, ekholms and suters will be gone. We've been really spoiled with some elite defenseman for - well - pretty much always.

Not much going on in the pipeline. The forward prospect pool is coming along nicely, with most likely a sweet addition or few coming this summer as well.

 

[herzausstein]

I think after the initial 1st round where it is forward heavy, we end up drafting alot of dmen in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

 

[BoneHutson]

There are probably 4-5 teams (Edm, Tor, LA, Buf, Ott) that are most in need of a goalie like Saros (e.g. competitors or on the fringe of competing/making the playoffs and needing a reliable netminder), and none of them will be in top 10 territory (except for the Sabres if they keep collapsing). Montreal also needs a long-term solution, but they're still far enough away they might as well wait til Saros is a pending UFA.

MTL fan coming in peace. There's a lot of talk in habsland about Askarov. And as you guys already have an elite, still young goalie (and based on the post above, not being shopped because you're not rebuilding), would you be interested in an Askarov deal with us? We're talking FLA's first (likely 12th-13th OA) + solid prospect.