Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[koteka]

not to go all "well, actually" on you, but…

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A team choosing to move on from a guy says nice things to him in an exit interview? I’m shocked. They must really have wanted to keep him. It was pure coincidence that they used all those 1st round picks on defensemen the last few years.

PS: If anyone ever said “It’s not you, it’s me” as they broke up with you, I’m sorry to inform you that they 100% felt it was you.

 

[stevo61]

A team choosing to move on from a guy says nice things to him in an exit interview? I’m shocked. They must really have wanted to keep him. It was pure coincidence that they used all those 1st round picks on defensemen the last few years.

PS: If anyone ever said “It’s not you, it’s me” as they broke up with you, I’m sorry to inform you that they 100% felt it was you.

Doesnt mean the player sucks or it wont work out for the 2nd team. Vegas was literally a team filled with other teams "misfits" and were successful from the start

 

[majormajor]

I don’t know who would have been interested in Severson that could have afforded his cap hit to offer a similar contract as to what we offered.

Most of the league doesn’t have cap space.

New Jersey was a team that could have made it work, but they spent money on Meier and moved on from Graves and Severson.

Pittsburgh obviously was interested in upgrading their D and willing to make some sacrifices to make it work, but Karlsson was their target. Maybe they would have gone after Severson, but then they wouldn’t have been able to get Graves. I think adding Graves and then trying to make the cap work for Karlsson was always their first choice, so I don’t see them adding Severson.

Ottawa seems more interested in acquiring offensive free agents than adding to their defense.

Chicago wasn’t going to sign another right D to a long term contract. Arizona and Anaheim arent ready to make a move like this. San Jose is trying to get out from bad long term defensemen contracts, not add more.

Severson has good size, but is not known for his defense. He is known for mixing in beautiful offensive plays with plenty of stupid plays. He has been a top pair defender, but on a bad team. New Jersey, a team that is truly on the cusp of something really terrific, wants to move on from him, and nobody seems to have any regrets. I think most of the league does not believe he is the savior some Jackets fans think he is.

If he had gone to free agency I think he would have quickly learned that in this off season he was not going to get the contract he thought he was going to get. And I think we could have gotten him for a lot less term.

Severson was projected to be the highest paid player in UFA by evolving-hockey. $6m per. They're often accurate. Though the term was beyond their expectation and I wouldn't have done it.

He was the only D expected to be able to make bank, so you can't say "all these other teams didn't sign similar D", because there was only one D in that part of the market, and we took him off the market early. So of course, say Ottawa, didn't sign a D to that contract. There weren't any left.

A team choosing to move on from a guy says nice things to him in an exit interview? I’m shocked. They must really have wanted to keep him. It was pure coincidence that they used all those 1st round picks on defensemen the last few years.

PS: If anyone ever said “It’s not you, it’s me” as they broke up with you, I’m sorry to inform you that they 100% felt it was you.

People have known for a while that a team with Dougie Hamilton, John Marino, and Simon Nemec at RD wasn't going to sign a UFA type deal with Severson or any other pending UFA RD. This was known much in advance.

You can't conclude from that that the Devils had any particular desire to "break up" with him.

I think you're reaching and really being unfair.

 

[koteka]

Severson was projected to be the highest paid player in UFA by evolving-hockey. $6m per. They're often accurate. Though the term was beyond their expectation and I wouldn't have done it.

He was the only D expected to be able to make bank, so you can't say "all these other teams didn't sign similar D", because there was only one D in that part of the market, and we took him off the market early. So of course, say Ottawa, didn't sign a D to that contract. There weren't any left.



People have known for a while that a team with Dougie Hamilton, John Marino, and Simon Nemec at RD wasn't going to sign a UFA type deal with Severson or any other pending UFA RD. This was known much in advance.

You can't conclude from that that the Devils had any particular desire to "break up" with him.

I think you're reaching and really being unfair.

They signed Dougie Hamilton to a big UFA contract, traded a former first round pick for Marino, and drafted Nemec with a very high pick. That to me says they were not happy with their right D situation. It doesn’t mean they hated the guy. But it does mean they didn’t like where they were on the right side. They have also drafted Seamus Casey. That is 4 significant moves on the right side since the 2021 off-season. They had made their decision, and their decision was Severson wasn’t a core piece.

 

[koteka]

Doesnt mean the player sucks or it wont work out for the 2nd team. Vegas was literally a team filled with other teams "misfits" and were successful from the start

100% correct. But Vegas didn’t give those guys 8 year contracts.

You are the guy who can’t believe what Chicago traded for Seth Jones and that they were basically bidding against themselves. I feel the same way about the Jackets and Severson. Doesn’t mean Severson won’t be a decent player for a few seasons. It just means I hate the contract and think it was unnecessary. I also wish we had targeted a guy who was better at defense.

 

[Marioesque]

I also wish we had targeted a guy who was better at defense.

And who's that?

 

[majormajor]

They signed Dougie Hamilton to a big UFA contract, traded a former first round pick for Marino, and drafted Nemec with a very high pick. That to me says they were not happy with their right D situation. It doesn’t mean they hated the guy. But it does mean they didn’t like where they were on the right side. They have also drafted Seamus Casey. That is 4 significant moves on the right side since the 2021 off-season. They had made their decision, and their decision was Severson wasn’t a core piece.

You make moves like the Marino fleecing regardless of where your depth chart is at, and you'd be thrilled to have Nemec regardless. What you don't do is sign a guy to a UFA type contract at a position of strength, even if you love him. It was obvious that Severson was going to get signed by a team that needed big help at RD (like the Jackets), not by a team that didn't (like the Devils).

 

[stevo61]

100% correct. But Vegas didn’t give those guys 8 year contracts.

You are the guy who can’t believe what Chicago traded for Seth Jones and that they were basically bidding against themselves. I feel the same way about the Jackets and Severson. Doesn’t mean Severson won’t be a decent player for a few seasons. It just means I hate the contract and think it was unnecessary. I also wish we had targeted a guy who was better at defense.

Well in a sense, we paid a 3rd to get exclusive negotiating rights but Severson still could have said no. Its not the best deal in the world but not the worst. Some of his most common partner the last few years have been Brendan Smith, Siganthaler, Ty Smith and I believe Andy Greene. Im curious to see him in a new system with Werenski or Provorov as a partner before I hate on it too much. He does play in a way that gels with Babcocks system

 

[Nanabijou]

Well in a sense, we paid a 3rd to get exclusive negotiating rights but Severson still could have said no. Its not the best deal in the world but not the worst. Some of his most common partner the last few years have been Brendan Smith, Siganthaler, Ty Smith and I believe Andy Greene. Im curious to see him in a new system with Werenski or Provorov as a partner before I hate on it too much. He does play in a way that gels with Babcocks system

Because it ended up being a sign-and-trade, the price was a third because they knew the answer was yes. If they were just negotiating, it would have probably been a 6th or 7th and Severson would have been only able to get 7 years.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

A team choosing to move on from a guy says nice things to him in an exit interview? I’m shocked. They must really have wanted to keep him.

they had to pick between extending timo meier or keeping severson. framing that as them wanting to get rid of severson is disingenuous at best.

It was pure coincidence that they used all those 1st round picks on defensemen the last few years.

i mean… yeah? lol. they were a rebuilding team for the better part of the last decade. rebuilding teams have more draft picks.

it's not even like they've skewed toward drafting defensemen over forwards with those picks, anyway. they had seven first-round picks from 2018-22, and used most of them (four) on forwards. only one of those picks was an RHD (nemec).

if you can look at that and say "they were purposely drafting to replace severson" then idk what to tell you. by that same logic, the mateychuk pick means werenski's days here should be numbered, right?

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Because it ended up being a sign-and-trade, the price was a third because they knew the answer was yes. If they were just negotiating, it would have probably been a 6th or 7th and Severson would have been only able to get 7 years.

the negotiating rights weren't a condition of the trade. had severson said no, the jackets wouldn't have given anything up. the jackets basically said "if you let us talk to him and we get a deal done, we'll give you a third round pick" and then got a deal done pretty much right away.

Some of his most common partner the last few years have been Brendan Smith, Siganthaler, Ty Smith and I believe Andy Greene. Im curious to see him in a new system with Werenski or Provorov as a partner before I hate on it too much. He does play in a way that gels with Babcocks system

worth noting that andy greene was about a billion years old when severson was paired with him. iirc his most common partner for a few years was the ghost of john moore.

jackets fans have seen time and time again (werenski, gavrikov, jones) that big-minutes defensemen on bad teams get unfairly skewered by analytics models. damon severson was in the same boat for a long time, then delivered elite results in second pair minutes while carrying a dead weight partner (brendan smith) – to me, that shows that he's a first-pair quality defenseman.

werenski/provorov are both way better than the guys he's been paired with before, and babcock's system fits him like a glove. i think he'll move the needle a lot more than people are expecting.

 

[koteka]

if you can look at that and say "they were purposely drafting to replace severson" then idk what to tell you. by that same logic, the mateychuk pick means werenski's days here should be numbered, right?

They made 3 major moves for right D plus drafted another right D in the second round. If you don’t get that there are only 3 guys on the right side, then I don’t know what to tell you. If we signed a top free agent left D, traded for a left D, and used a 2nd overall pick on a left D shortly before Werenski’s contract was up then I would assume Werenski’s days here would be numbered.

 

[Viqsi]

They made 3 major moves for right D plus drafted another right D in the second round. If you don’t get that there are only 3 guys on the right side, then I don’t know what to tell you. If we signed a top free agent left D, traded for a left D, and used a 2nd overall pick on a left D shortly before Werenski’s contract was up then I would assume Werenski’s days here would be numbered.

So Mateychuk and Provorov prove that Werenski is doomed. Gotcha.

 

[koteka]

So Mateychuk and Provorov prove that Werenski is doomed. Gotcha.

Was Mateychuk a top 2 pick? Did we sign a top left D free agent to a 7 year $63 million contract? Did we trade for a guy who had 5 years left on his contract (like Marino)? Such a silly point by someone who came so late to the game of Sid Meier’s Civilization.

We added two left D, one of which we hope will pan out in a few years and the other (Proverov) will likely be gone at the trade deadline in 2025. Even if we keep both, plenty of people on this board keep telling me that Provorov is a perfect 2nd pair D where he won’t be playing too high like in Philly, so he obviously isn’t here to supplant Werenski.

 

[VT]

They made 3 major moves for right D plus drafted another right D in the second round. If you don’t get that there are only 3 guys on the right side, then I don’t know what to tell you. If we signed a top free agent left D, traded for a left D, and used a 2nd overall pick on a left D shortly before Werenski’s contract was up then I would assume Werenski’s days here would be numbered.

Werenski has NMC. Similar like Merzlikins but he has M-NTC and stupid salary.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[koteka]

Do we think this is our D?

Interesting that there was no mention of Jiricek, and only a brief mention of Nemec. Also they discussed the relationship of the goalie and the D for the Islanders but not the CBJ.

 

[majormajor]

Do we think this is our D?

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Interesting that there was no mention of Jiricek, and only a brief mention of Nemec. Also they discussed the relationship of the goalie and the D for the Islanders but not the CBJ.

Seems very plausible to me, though I'd expect Boqvist to be on the left and Gudbranson on the right.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Bean’s in the mix? Blanks is depth/healthy scratch, or Cleveland? And of course the possibility Jiricek busts the door down. But yeah it seems this 6 is as likely as any to start the season.

Whither Jake Bean? Haven't heard his name once this offseason. I think he's a top 6 NHL defenseman, and I'd rather him play over Gudbranson, but I don't think he will. He's a real good 7/8 with Blanks I guess, which is big since Bayreuther is gone and Berni is likely gone too.

Christiansen is OK at 10 (9 if you want Jiricek to play the entire year in Cleveland), right? Plus Svozil? Then Bjork if needed and we've called up Sweezey before but I think that's not ideal.

 

[majormajor]

Bean’s in the mix? Blanks is depth/healthy scratch, or Cleveland? And of course the possibility Jiricek busts the door down. But yeah it seems this 6 is as likely as any to start the season.

Whither Jake Bean? Haven't heard his name once this offseason. I think he's a top 6 NHL defenseman, and I'd rather him play over Gudbranson, but I don't think he will. He's a real good 7/8 with Blanks I guess, which is big since Bayreuther is gone and Berni is likely gone too.

Christiansen is OK at 10 (9 if you want Jiricek to play the entire year in Cleveland), right? Plus Svozil? Then Bjork if needed and we've called up Sweezey before but I think that's not ideal.

It's hard to say with Bean because he was awful when the whole team was awful last year and then spent the rest of the year on the shelf. I thought he was an ok 6 I guess before that. But unless he's improved from that point two years ago I don't think he's any better than Christiansen, Berni, Bjork, etc.. They're all fine. Maybe Svozil too at this point. We could definitely do without Bean's contract, Jarmo messed up there.

 

[koteka]

We could definitely do without Bean's contract, Jarmo messed up there.

I‘d say Bean was a decent bet by Jarmo, but it didn’t work out. We needed a left D. Carolina is about as good of team as scouting defense as there is, so adding one of their guys who was caught in a numbers game made sense. It looks really bad now, but at the time it made sense.

This year is pretty much a put up or shut up year for Bean. Last year of his contract. He probably won’t get a qualifying offer unless he ends up as a solid 2D this season. His next contract might be a two way contract if he doesn’t show something.

 

[stevo61]

 

[thebus88]

I‘d say Bean was a decent bet by Jarmo, but it didn’t work out. We needed a left D. Carolina is about as good of team as scouting defense as there is, so adding one of their guys who was caught in a numbers game made sense. It looks really bad now, but at the time it made sense.

This year is pretty much a put up or shut up year for Bean. Last year of his contract. He probably won’t get a qualifying offer unless he ends up as a solid 2D this season. His next contract might be a two way contract if he doesn’t show something.

Two-way contract because he got hurt?? Jake Bean the new Joonas Korpisalo??

IMO, he’s clearly the most underrated CBJ player currently. He’s practically just as good overall offensively as Boqvist, and defensively as good as Peeke.

While those 2 guys both only bring 1 aspect to the ice, and their actual effectiveness at those things are still in question.

imo

 

[stevo61]

Two-way contract because he got hurt?? Jake Bean the new Joonas Korpisalo??

IMO, he’s clearly the most underrated CBJ player currently. He’s practically just as good overall offensively as Boqvist, and defensively as good as Peeke.

While those 2 guys both only bring 1 aspect to the ice, and their actual effectiveness at those things are still in question.

imo

I dont think hes as good offensively. I think he can get the puck moving the right direction but in the offensive zone hes not as dangerous. I would like to see him in Babcocks system though. I think the Bean-Gudbranson pair would look better in a new system.

I still think Jenner is the most underrated to too many fans on here. Acting like we are in trouble if hes in the top 6 is a joke

 

[koteka]

Two-way contract because he got hurt?? Jake Bean the new Joonas Korpisalo??

IMO, he’s clearly the most underrated CBJ player currently. He’s practically just as good overall offensively as Boqvist, and defensively as good as Peeke.

While those 2 guys both only bring 1 aspect to the ice, and their actual effectiveness at those things are still in question.

imo

We won’t qualify because he isn’t worth $2.9 million unless he looks like a legit 2D, which he hasn’t, and he’ll have a hard time doing this year behind Werenski and Provorov. Does he get traded at the deadline (with retention) to a team needing depth? I doubt it. Then the question is what is he worth? A one year show me contract near league minimum? A two way with more a little more money than league minimum for the NHL ($1.5 mill / 300k)? I expect he ends up with a good team next year on a cheap contract where both he and the team think he can show something as a 6/7 D.