Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[Viqsi]

What is this Crayola advertisement actually saying!?!?

Oh, ok, new and MORE IMPORTANT question…

WHO or HOW are they keeping track of these “Botched Retrievals and Failed Exits”??

As I understand it, Sznadjer himself (along with some friends, IIRC) is doing it by reviewing footage of games. I don't know if they manage to get all games or just a representative sample (if it was all games, that'd be a hell of an accomplishment).

There was a breakdown/set of posts done years ago showing that these “advanced statistics” can’t even get the shot locations down accurately, and the related shot danger values given were shown to consistently be highly inaccurate and most of the time lacking context or logic altogether.

I know Sznadjer is pretty well respected for his work in this area but I've never tried validating it myself.

That said, I’m still less interested in how good our defense breaks the puck out of the zone, and still more worried about how they play when the OTHER team is breaking INTO the zone, and during sustained pressure DEFENSIVELY.

Valid, but getting the puck out of the zone is usually the last step in ending sustained pressure (and we failed miserably at it constantly last year), so I wouldn't write that off out of hand. It's possible to overrate that part (since it's a measurable and so folks trying to do statistical analysis will pounce on it when available), and evaluating that as an individual skill rather than a team skill or a chemistry evaluation strikes me as a tad disingenuous, but it's at least worthwhile to look at.

 

[Viqsi]

I just ran across this article claiming the CBJ and Canucks are working on a trade involving Anthony Beauvillier, Jacob Truscott and a pick to the Jackets for Andrew Peeke. Apparently this would provide Vancouver with some cap relief.

I am not familiar with the rumor's source, nhltradrumor.com. Are they a trustworthy source?

Columbus Blue Jackets, Vancouver Canucks working on a trade - NHL Trade Rumors

The latest NHL trade rumors for the Vancouver Canucks have the team packaging up Anthony Beauvillier to the Blue Jackets for Andrew Peeke.

www.nhltraderumor.com

They're garbage.

 

[Cowumbus]

They're garbage.

If true, I like Truscott.

 

[Cowumbus]

Gaudreau Jenner Marchenko
Johnson Fantilli Laine
Texier Sillinger Roslovic
Robinson Kuraly Voronkov
Danforth/Oliver

Werenski Severson
Provorov Jiricek
Gudbranson Boqvist
Peeke

Merzlikins
Tarasov

Could be worse.

 

[stevo61]

Gaudreau Jenner Marchenko
Johnson Fantilli Laine
Texier Sillinger Roslovic
Robinson Kuraly Voronkov
Danforth/Oliver

Werenski Severson
Provorov Jiricek
Gudbranson Boqvist
Peeke

Merzlikins
Tarasov

Could be worse.

I hope Marchenko has some real improvements or I think hes the weak link in the top 6. If not, im not in love with the idea but could see Roslovic there

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Gaudreau Jenner Marchenko
Johnson Fantilli Laine
Texier Sillinger Roslovic
Robinson Kuraly Voronkov
Danforth/Oliver

Werenski Severson
Provorov Jiricek
Gudbranson Boqvist
Peeke

Merzlikins
Tarasov

Could be worse.

Basically what I expect it to look like as well. Although I’m not 100% sure Babcock keeps Danforth or Olivier over Foudy.

 

[Cowumbus]

Basically what I expect it to look like as well. Although I’m not 100% sure Babcock keeps Danforth or Olivier over Foudy.

Probably depends on the opponent. All are similar in their on ice impact, but obviously stylistically different.

 

[EspenK]

Probably depends on the opponent. All are similar in their on ice impact, but obviously stylistically different.

All 3 guys have to clear waivers so I don't see this decision being based on opponent. Sooner or later one of them would get claimed imo. If Sillinger doesn't make the team then all 3 fit and the waiver issue goes away,at least for awhile.

 

[OldGoaltender]

Basically what I expect it to look like as well. Although I’m not 100% sure Babcock keeps Danforth or Olivier over Foudy.

No Chinakov?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

No Chinakov?

Maybe. But he’d have to take someone’s job. Maybe even Voronkov’s. Unless management is willing to lose two of olivier, Danforth, Foudy, or Robinson.

 

[JacketsDavid]

Gaudreau Jenner Marchenko
Johnson Fantilli Laine
Texier Sillinger Roslovic
Robinson Kuraly Voronkov
Danforth/Oliver

Werenski Severson
Provorov Jiricek
Gudbranson Boqvist
Peeke

Merzlikins
Tarasov

Could be worse.

To start the year I move Fantilli down (to 3rd line C to start) and some Combo of Roslovic and Johnson will be LW/C on 2nd line.
I also don't think Jiricek makes it out of camp.
I'm not optimistic on Sillinger making it initially. That is where I think Chiny starts.
Hopefully Fantilli moves into top 6 before mid year.

Johnny-Jenner-Marchenko
Johnson-Roslovic- Laine
Tex-Fantilli-Chiny
Robinson-Kuraly-Oliver or Voronkov

Zach-Boquist/Peeke
Provorov-Severson
Gudbranson-Peeke/Boquist/Bean

 

[VT]

Come to think of it, I hope Roslovic gets traded. He's weak as a center, we have enough wingers, plus he plays poorly around the boards. And I don't think city of origin is the reason for a spot on the team.

 

[DarkandStormy]

NHL contract efficiency, 2023 edition: Which teams spend their money most wisely?

Here’s how each NHL team stacks up with regard to the efficiency of all the skater contracts they currently have signed.

theathletic.com

Dom doing his annual Columbus sucks and everyone else rocks ranks us 30th. While some of his article has some validity, I can think of many organizations that are much worse.

My only quibble is with how poorly he rates Werenski - dude was hurt almost he entirely of last season. If you're not updating your model to project him for at least 40-50 points over 70 or so games, you're just building in injuries.

Anyway, we can collectively laugh at his -$41m surplus value of the Seth Jones contract.

 

[Sdrawkcab321]

Does this guy know anything or is this just for attention?

 

[DarkandStormy]

I just ran across this article claiming the CBJ and Canucks are working on a trade involving Anthony Beauvillier, Jacob Truscott and a pick to the Jackets for Andrew Peeke. Apparently this would provide Vancouver with some cap relief.

I am not familiar with the rumor's source, nhltradrumor.com. Are they a trustworthy source?

Columbus Blue Jackets, Vancouver Canucks working on a trade - NHL Trade Rumors

The latest NHL trade rumors for the Vancouver Canucks have the team packaging up Anthony Beauvillier to the Blue Jackets for Andrew Peeke.

www.nhltraderumor.com

Does this guy know anything or is this just for attention?

Literally just this. As many have said, not a reputable site.

 

[VT]

I don't know if that's true. But judging by the scouting report I'd like Anthony Beauvillier. Just trade Jack Roslovic and Emil Bemstrom (nothing bad against them but their play without the puck isn't ideal and their offense isn't so good to replace it).Whereas, if the scouting report is right, Anthony has good defense, played well in the PO and is fast. He can be compared to Viktor Arvidsson in style. The perfect player to a technical player, I think.

Anthony Beauvillier Continues To Have One Of The Most Underrated Seasons

Anthony Beauvillier remains underrated in the shadows of Matt Barzal and Kyle Palmieri but continues to improve year after year.

lastwordonsports.com

 

[Viqsi]

If true, I like Truscott.

Of course you would; he's another UMichigan kid.

* * *​

Literally just this. As many have said, not a reputable site.

Ayup. I wouldn't necessarily object to the proposal per se, but that doesn't make it a legit rumor. It handles our RD logjam in exchange for worsening the winger one.

 

[squashmaple]

I don't know if that's true. But judging by the scouting report I'd like Anthony Beauvillier. Just trade Jack Roslovic and Emil Bemstrom (nothing bad against them but their play without the puck isn't ideal and their offense isn't so good to replace it).Whereas, if the scouting report is right, Anthony has good defense, played well in the PO and is fast. He can be compared to Viktor Arvidsson in style. The perfect player to a technical player, I think.

Anthony Beauvillier Continues To Have One Of The Most Underrated Seasons

Anthony Beauvillier remains underrated in the shadows of Matt Barzal and Kyle Palmieri but continues to improve year after year.

lastwordonsports.com

One of my best friends is a huge Isles fan, and because I like their broadcast team, I've been watching a lot of Islanders games the past couple years. I also really like Beauvillier. I don't know if his cap hit is a great fit, but especially if Laine can stick at center, that opens up a top-6 RW spot and I think I'd rather have Beauvillier than Chinakhov.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Beauvillier is a bottom 6 player, most likely a 3rd liner who is an average on at best. I don’t see where adding him elevates our team.

 

[thebus88]

Give me a Bemstrom-Danforth-Foudy 3rd/4th line all day.

I’d like these guys in individually over a list of other guys as is. Olivier actually brings an element to the ice that essentially all forwards do not. Robinson/Kuraly do not IMO. Their “intangibles” and defensive ability is greatly exaggerated. Roslovic is another perfect example of a guy getting time over these guys because of his cap hit, instead of actual merit.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Give me a Bemstrom-Danforth-Foudy 3rd/4th line all day.

I’d like these guys in individually over a list of other guys as is. Olivier actually brings an element to the ice that essentially all forwards do not. Robinson/Kuraly do not IMO. Their “intangibles” and defensive ability is greatly exaggerated. Roslovic is another perfect example of a guy getting time over these guys because of his cap hit, instead of actual merit.

I'm really intrigued about how Babcock will use Danforth.

When he was coaching in Toronto, he had a player named Byron Froese who he gave a ton of ice time (given his talent level) primarily due to his effort level and coachability.

My hope is that Babcock leans towards Torts' player use philosophy-i.e. that a player gets scratched or benched if the effort isn't there regardless of contractual status.

 

[majormajor]

Basically what I expect it to look like as well. Although I’m not 100% sure Babcock keeps Danforth or Olivier over Foudy.

Y'all are sleepin' on Danforth I tell you.

Probably depends on the opponent. All are similar in their on ice impact, but obviously stylistically different.

Sleeping!

Maybe. But he’d have to take someone’s job. Maybe even Voronkov’s. Unless management is willing to lose two of olivier, Danforth, Foudy, or Robinson.

Chinny is like built for pre-season goal scoring. There's a chance he goes on a tear and changes plans for him. He's waiver exempt and hasn't been an effective NHLer yet so I would think he probably should start in the AHL. Maybe Voronkov, Sillinger, and Chinakhov will all start there while they evaluate others.

One of my best friends is a huge Isles fan, and because I like their broadcast team, I've been watching a lot of Islanders games the past couple years. I also really like Beauvillier. I don't know if his cap hit is a great fit, but especially if Laine can stick at center, that opens up a top-6 RW spot and I think I'd rather have Beauvillier than Chinakhov.

I might take Beauvillier as a top six RW over both Chinakhov and Marchenko. But it's marginal. At a $4m cap hit, a year from UFA, we'd be doing Vancouver a favor taking care of their needs with Peeke while not really doing anything for ourselves. I'd at least hold out for a 2nd rounder.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

The good news about all these guys who stink but are overpaid so they’re in the lineup is that NCHMB isn’t gonna play that game. He doesn’t have the history with these guys and he’s not gonna take their shit. Whoever he plays with have earned their ice time and I will agree completely with his decisions because I know these things to be true.

 

[majormajor]

It seems like we're understating the possibility that Fantilli takes over as #1C early in the year, or maybe plays as #1C from start to finish. I have some issues with his game but he's an amazing goal scorer who can skate and battle at both ends, he's the perfect complement for Johnny Gaudreau and it might be better for both of them to just figure it out together. Or maybe he's not quite ready for that. But it surprises me that we don't talk much about the possibility that we've already got the #1C figured out.

I saw some comparisons with Beniers. Beniers is a super agile skater and very reliable with few turnovers. He's an easier projection. I think Fantilli though has the higher upside and could pop soon especially with the help of a guy like Gaudreau to handle most of the zone entries.

Alternatively, KJ also seems like a good complement with Fantilli and you could have them together on a secondary scoring line that draws easier matchups.

KJ - Fantilli - Marchenko?

KJ - Fantilli - Laine might be more likely, also perhaps KJ - Fantilli - Roslovic. Babs wants a right-handed guy who can take faceoffs on each line and play some center. Laine might make that a great line. I want Laine with Gaudreau though. Marchenko with Gaudreau was a very low scoring unit.

 

[Cowumbus]

Y'all are sleepin' on Danforth I tell you.

What is your prediction for his point total in a healthy season? How about his WAR?

I don’t see how he distinguishes himself from guys like Foudy (speed) Oliver (toughness) or Voronkov (size/scoring?). Unfortunately I see a 5’09” 30 year old fourth line player, coming off an injury, who hasn’t had a season where he can stay healthy in the NHL. During his 2021/22 season he had one of the worst scoring rates and exG % for forwards on the team, behind guys like Bemstrom, Meyer, and Guance. Obviously last year was a lost season for him, but I think Foudy for instance showed glimpses of something “more.”

My expectations are very low. I think he’s an NHL fourth liner, but I’m not seeing much more than that. TBH, whoever plays 4RW isn’t a big deal one way or the other. I hope they don’t play much anyway…