Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[Viqsi]

His stuff is interesting to read but it’s just his opinion surrounding his own numbers. I think he had Boston as a bad team last year. He has hits and misses like everyone else.

I'd be more amenable to a charitable view of the guy if he didn't frequently hide behind those numbers whenever folks call him out on it as though they're something wholly independent of the work he does.

 

[BB88]

Yeah that Dom guy is a real idiot.
He says the CBJ will suck each year and well look at our record...

You think they are going to face the same amount of injuries as last season and see no improvements from any of the kids?

 

[JacketsDavid]

This board is made a better place thanks to insightful, reasoned, and well-thought-out analysis like this.

(disclaimer: the above sentence may or may not have been a pack of outrageous lies)

So says the pot to the kettle.

 

[JacketsDavid]

You think they are going to face the same amount of injuries as last season and see no improvements from any of the kids?

The CBJ have historically had a lot of injuries. But no I wouldn't expect them to lose the exact amount of man games as last year.
I have no idea who will and won't improve. Obviously based on the way Sillinger player last season I don't think you do either.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Ooooof.

 

[NotWendell]

Still up for firing Jarmo.

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

Them: "There's a lot of Blue Jackets on this list"
Me: No there's just Guddy, Gav (is this a useless stat again...) and Peeke, that's fiiiiine...
...
Me: Oh Provorov and Severson are there too.
Me: Ooooof.

 

[Monk]

Them: "There's a lot of Blue Jackets on this list"
Me: No there's just Guddy, Gav (is this a useless stat again...) and Peeke, that's fiiiiine...
...
Me: Oh Provorov and Severson are there too.
Me: Ooooof.

Is there an excuse here like "Well these are the guys asked to do this a ton for their teams" ?

I'm not an Xer, how do I find the original X with the other end of the list? Curious who is good at this in the league now.

 

[tunnelvision]

Ooooof.

This is one of the reasons why I think we should be careful about making too optimistic projections for the upcoming season and future in general, there's a dangerously high chance that Jarmo's offseason moves will not work out the way some people like to think.

I haven't watched Severson and Provorov a ton but I've seen enough to know that both have had tendency to look awkward at times under pressure - failing to receive slightly indirect passes from D partner or completely missing the target with their breakout passes. Combine that with the uncertainty of their defensive impact and most people should understand how premature it is to state something like "Jackets defense is set for the next 5 years".

It feels like we're really counting on Babcock's strict breakout and defensive system to solve these issues.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Them: "There's a lot of Blue Jackets on this list"
Me: No there's just Guddy, Gav (is this a useless stat again...) and Peeke, that's fiiiiine...
...
Me: Oh Provorov and Severson are there too.
Me: Ooooof.

Jack Johnson and Seth Jones also make an appearance. Just littered with former, current and future Jackets.

 

[koteka]

Some pretty good names at the top of the list. Josi, Makar, Fox, etc. I look at Carolina and wonder how we can get guys like Slavin and Pesce. Because we don’t seem to be targeting 6’3” defensemen who can play defense in the middle rounds.

 

[NotCommitted]

Gudbranson has a really long bar and now we added Provorov and Severson, both with long bars! That's gotta be good, right.... right?

 

[CBJx614]

Some pretty good names at the top of the list. Josi, Makar, Fox, etc. I look at Carolina and wonder how we can get guys like Slavin and Pesce. Because we don’t seem to be targeting 6’3” defensemen who can play defense in the middle rounds.

We took 4 defenseman in a row who were over 6'1 in 2021.

In 2020 we took a 6'2 D

2019 we took a 6'3

Size isn't the end all be all of playing D. And shocker, big defensive dmen don't always pan out.

 

[DarkandStormy]

We took 4 defenseman in a row who were over 6'1 in 2021.

In 2020 we took a 6'2 D

2019 we took a 6'3

Size isn't the end all be all of playing D. And shocker, big defensive dmen don't always pan out.

That you, Ilari Melart?

 

[squashmaple]

We took 4 defenseman in a row who were over 6'1 in 2021.

In 2020 we took a 6'2 D

2019 we took a 6'3

Size isn't the end all be all of playing D. And shocker, big defensive dmen don't always pan out.

coughGabrielCarlssoncough

 

[CBJx614]

Not to mention we don't have a single sub 6' defender on the roster. Even Boqvist is 6' and we literally just added a beast of a 6'3 defender who should be making an impact as soon as this season

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Here’s the thing with retrievals and exits, they are influenced by team stats and team play.

If a team is just allowed to willingly dump the puck in with no slow down from the forecheck, then yeah, it’s going to be tough to get it clean or get it out clean. But if your forwards can slow them down and buy even a second for the defenseman to not get crushed every time they touch it, you’re in good shape as long as they know what to do with the puck. And when you do retrieve the puck, having teammates in the right spot and willing to battle also helps get the puck out. It won’t always be easy breezy to get it out of your zone.

I have faith in Provorov to improve on his numbers under Babcock. Not really sure about Severson as devils fans say he is prone to big mistakes. That team was good enough that some doubt can creep into his overall retrieve/exit.

Gudbranson there is no hope to improve on those. He is what he is. Just get it off his stick in non danger areas.

 

[thebus88]

Ooooof.

What is this Crayola advertisement actually saying!?!?

Oh, ok, new and MORE IMPORTANT question…

WHO or HOW are they keeping track of these “Botched Retrievals and Failed Exits”??

There was a breakdown/set of posts done years ago showing that these “advanced statistics” can’t even get the shot locations down accurately, and the related shot danger values given were shown to consistently be highly inaccurate and most of the time lacking context or logic altogether.

That said, I’m still less interested in how good our defense breaks the puck out of the zone, and still more worried about how they play when the OTHER team is breaking INTO the zone, and during sustained pressure DEFENSIVELY.

 

[thebus88]

Here’s the thing with retrievals and exits, they are influenced by team stats and team play.

If a team is just allowed to willingly dump the puck in with no slow down from the forecheck, then yeah, it’s going to be tough to get it clean or get it out clean. But if your forwards can slow them down and buy even a second for the defenseman to not get crushed every time they touch it, you’re in good shape as long as they know what to do with the puck. And when you do retrieve the puck, having teammates in the right spot and willing to battle also helps get the puck out. It won’t always be easy breezy to get it out of your zone.

Very good points about the offense/forwards impacting the effectiveness of the team attempting to breakout. Slowing teams down on the forecheck is something that won’t get talked about, but, is probably something the CBJ forwards are clearly 1 of the worst teams in the league at, and impacts things greatly on a game to game basis.

To add to this aspect, and to bring in Larsen and a MAIN point of my defense of him. It doesn’t matter WHAT you tell your players to do on the ice, IF THEY CANT EXECUTE IT. I’m completely convinced that just as much was and is wrong with the composition of the roster and what they were/are able to do on the ice, just as much as it was Larsen’s apparent troublesome “tactics”.

Another thing to add to attack the STUPID “advanced statistics”, is that the ENTIRE ASPECT of a players skill or ability to forecheck or back check can’t be quantified in ANY WAY.

Overall, it’s funny how people (as a whole) at different times seemingly attempt to make the case that the offense or defense is more at fault for something, that on the surface looks to be the other positional groups responsibility.

 

[DarkandStormy]

What is this Crayola advertisement actually saying!?!?

Oh, ok, new and MORE IMPORTANT question…

WHO or HOW are they keeping track of these “Botched Retrievals and Failed Exits”??

There was a breakdown/set of posts done years ago showing that these “advanced statistics” can’t even get the shot locations down accurately, and the related shot danger values given were shown to consistently be highly inaccurate and most of the time lacking context or logic altogether.

That said, I’m still less interested in how good our defense breaks the puck out of the zone, and still more worried about how they play when the OTHER team is breaking INTO the zone, and during sustained pressure DEFENSIVELY.

The irony of your last statement and not understanding what the chart is showing. Successfully retrieving the puck and exiting the zone would end said sustained pressure.

Never change, bus.

 

[thebus88]

The irony of your last statement and not understanding what the chart is showing. Successfully retrieving the puck and exiting the zone would end said sustained pressure.

Never change, bus.

The chart is showing names, colors, and logos. Nothing more.

NOTHING will end sustained pressure in the defensive zone. That’s so ridiculous, I don’t even know how to respond to that.

I guess we can start by going over what exactly constitutes a “Botched Retrieval”?? And again, WHO OR WHAT is making this determination?? Also, are “Botched Retrievals” and “Failed Exits” combined together under a statistical blanket due to tracking limitations??

 

[Monk]

The chart is showing names, colors, and logos. Nothing more.

Totally agree with this sentiment. A lot of these charts feel like the equivalent of reading a headline and taking away a conclusion without ever reading the article, except for a lot of these charts the article doesn't seem to exist.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

I just ran across this article claiming the CBJ and Canucks are working on a trade involving Anthony Beauvillier, Jacob Truscott and a pick to the Jackets for Andrew Peeke. Apparently this would provide Vancouver with some cap relief.

I am not familiar with the rumor's source, nhltradrumor.com. Are they a trustworthy source?

Columbus Blue Jackets, Vancouver Canucks working on a trade - NHL Trade Rumors

The latest NHL trade rumors for the Vancouver Canucks have the team packaging up Anthony Beauvillier to the Blue Jackets for Andrew Peeke.

www.nhltraderumor.com

 

[Youngguns1380]

Very good points about the offense/forwards impacting the effectiveness of the team attempting to breakout. Slowing teams down on the forecheck is something that won’t get talked about, but, is probably something the CBJ forwards are clearly 1 of the worst teams in the league at, and impacts things greatly on a game to game basis.

To add to this aspect, and to bring in Larsen and a MAIN point of my defense of him. It doesn’t matter WHAT you tell your players to do on the ice, IF THEY CANT EXECUTE IT. I’m completely convinced that just as much was and is wrong with the composition of the roster and what they were/are able to do on the ice, just as much as it was Larsen’s apparent troublesome “tactics”.

Another thing to add to attack the STUPID “advanced statistics”, is that the ENTIRE ASPECT of a players skill or ability to forecheck or back check can’t be quantified in ANY WAY.

Overall, it’s funny how people (as a whole) at different times seemingly attempt to make the case that the offense or defense is more at fault for something, that on the surface looks to be the other positional groups responsibility.

When I was talking about the add of Texier, Danforth and Voronkov being a big impact and stating that is the other part of the defense (this is what I was describing) - the forecheck (F1), board battles, cycle game, grit, pest.

Adding Severson and Provorov was part of the equation for zone exits, first pass, defending and retrievals, but I would argue adding in Texier, Danforth and Voronkov is as important for team defense.

You don’t realize you are missing it until it’s not there and when we lost Dubinsky, Foligno, Texier and Bjorkstrand - nobody played that role except Danforth and team defense fell mostly on our defense.

 

[Xoggz22]

I just can't wait for the season to start so we can actually see what this team looks like 20 games in... then I'll revisit some of the moves and charts and such... I'm just struggling to find any comparison to last year's play and what it looks like this year. New players, coach, system... a lot of players returning from injury. it's a 6 man game and at the speed they play even a simple breakdown by one player impacts the other 5 on the ice. I'm expecting fewer breakdowns this coming year.