Are you feeling more or less optimistic about the leafs future since Dubas took over?

[The CyNick]

You're right - its about winning.

People have a misconception about the purpose of analytics though. The point is to be able to look at the results - and say to yourself - is this more or less likely to continue? Now - how do you evaluate that? The analytics help you identify underlying metrics that are more predictive of the future than past results are.

I understand the gripes with expected goals/etc - because it doesn't matter to fans. What matters is winning.

But to a GM or related team-builder - that stuff should matter - because historically it has proven to be more predictive of individual player and team success moving forward than "did the team win last year?"

This is not a perfect example - but look at Brent Seabrook's contract extension as an example. He was paid based on what he was previously - not what he was going to be worth over the value of the deal. Its fine for Chicago because they got 3 cups out of it - but they didn't need to sign him to that deal after the fact - and it was a bad decision to pay him just based on how awesome he was in the past. Its the same deal extrapolated to team success and individual players.

I get wanting to move on from the core/guys like Marner. I'd also say that given his talent level - its extremely unlikely that he continues to disappoint in the playoffs to this extent over the remainder of his contract and career. It just usually doesn't occur that a player that is top 10 in points year to year somehow never figures out how to produce effectively in the playoffs. We also for a few years only heard about how Nylander was awful in the playoffs and he will never be a playoff performer - only for him to be a PPG guy this year in the playoffs playing without his natural C - and a guy who passed through waivers earlier this season.

No issue with people wanting change - but the idea that this group can figure it out isn't insane. Its really about two guys - Matthews/Marner. Can they figure it out? Historically players as good as them do.

The number of great playoff performers is much lower than you think it is. The trick is identifying the guys who can perform whe it counts. Dubas has been awful at that.

 

[The CyNick]

The goal is to build the best team you can to give yourself the best chance to win the cup. You can be upset at the surface results all you want, but making the team worse gets us nowhere. You're asking for guarantees, regardless of circumstances, but there are no guarantees in hockey for any team. You don't give up on some of the best young players the cap era has seen, at age 23.

I'm asking for results. We used to be allowed to ask for that in the real world. Now apparently it's just about trying and doing what seemed to be right. How about just win? That's what I want, no demand.

 

[DuklaNation]

Maybe we should hire Beiber as GM?

 

[The CyNick]

Maybe we should hire Beiber as GM?

At least he's good at his job.

 

[pucksakes666]

Surprised the mod hadn’t locked this one down yet

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

The number of great playoff performers is much lower than you think it is. The trick is identifying the guys who can perform whe it counts. Dubas has been awful at that.

Yeah I just don't buy that identifying players that can perform when it counts is the issue here. Two guys that were perceived as bad in the playoffs previously were two of their best - if not the two best players this year in Nylander and Rielly.

I get it - I just think the sample sizes in the playoffs for players are small enough that variance has a larger impact on counting box stats than people seem to realize. Players can play bad in a series, or not as well - and its similar to a slump in the regular season. Marner was great in the first Boston series - 9 points in 7 games - pretty solid. Matthews was their best player vs Washington in the first series - and scored 5 goals in 7 games against the Bruins in the second Bruins series.

The last two playoffs for both weren't good ones for them - of course we all know that - I just don't buy that they have fundamental flaws that show that they'll never be able to play well in the playoffs when we've literally seen them play well in the past.

 

[Aashir]

All I will say is, anyone that thinks this team has what it takes to beat a team like Tampa, is out to lunch. Just my opinion.

Tampa????
Give me Ottawa and Maybe it goes to 7. Actually no, Ottawa plays us very hard, make it 5. 4-1 sens

 

[The CyNick]

Yeah I just don't buy that identifying players that can perform when it counts is the issue here. Two guys that were perceived as bad in the playoffs previously were two of their best - if not the two best players this year in Nylander and Rielly.

I get it - I just think the sample sizes in the playoffs for players are small enough that variance has a larger impact on counting box stats than people seem to realize. Players can play bad in a series, or not as well - and its similar to a slump in the regular season. Marner was great in the first Boston series - 9 points in 7 games - pretty solid. Matthews was their best player vs Washington in the first series - and scored 5 goals in 7 games against the Bruins in the second Bruins series.

The last two playoffs for both weren't good ones for them - of course we all know that - I just don't buy that they have fundamental flaws that show that they'll never be able to play well in the playoffs when we've literally seen them play well in the past.

Did you see Matthews laughing?

Did you see Marner avoid contact at all costs even if it means a turnover?

Fundamental flaws. Not changing.

 

[PromisedLand]

Surprised the mod hadn’t locked this one down yet

LOL what? dont like that dubas' incompetence and leafs' ridiculous cap structure and bleak future is being talked about by the TOROTONO MAPLE LEAFS fans?

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Did you see Matthews laughing?

Did you see Marner avoid contact at all costs even if it means a turnover?

Fundamental flaws. Not changing.

So Marner was willing to take contact in the first Boston series and wasn't against MTL/CBJ and isn't moving forward? Matthews can't score despite doing it vs Washington and Boston?

I understand the emotion here, but "fundamental flaws" suggests that they can't get it done - ever. Not that sometimes they'll get it done, sometimes they won't.

There aren't many guys who have always gotten it done - every game, every series - in this league.

 

[The CyNick]

So Marner was willing to take contact in the first Boston series and wasn't against MTL/CBJ and isn't moving forward? Matthews can't score despite doing it vs Washington and Boston?

I understand the emotion here, but "fundamental flaws" suggests that they can't get it done - ever. Not that sometimes they'll get it done, sometimes they won't.

There aren't many guys who have always gotten it done - every game, every series - in this league.

I think players are motivated by different things. Matthews and Marner seem to be driven by money. They got deals that are among the highest in the league despite accomplishing nothing of note. With that in mind, I don't believe they have the drive to get better. They are content giving it a go and seeing where the chips fall.

Hell Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield showed far more jam in the playoffs. Look at Brendan Gallaghers reaction after losing to a far far superior team in Tampa. He was beside himself. Matthews and Marner were like "I thought we played pretty well.. hit a couple posts...".

One of the most important skills in management is to identify players who are winners. These guys either never had or more likely no longer have the drive to win. But the GM paid them like they are the elite of the elite.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

I think players are motivated by different things. Matthews and Marner seem to be driven by money. They got deals that are among the highest in the league despite accomplishing nothing of note. With that in mind, I don't believe they have the drive to get better. They are content giving it a go and seeing where the chips fall.

Hell Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield showed far more jam in the playoffs. Look at Brendan Gallaghers reaction after losing to a far far superior team in Tampa. He was beside himself. Matthews and Marner were like "I thought we played pretty well.. hit a couple posts...".

One of the most important skills in management is to identify players who are winners. These guys either never had or more likely no longer have the drive to win. But the GM paid them like they are the elite of the elite.

Yeah I just disagree. We just watched Matthews put up a 65-goal paced 82 game season. His best season yet - and Marner produced top 5 in the league in scoring - continuing to increase his offensive output. I don't buy the idea that they stopped trying to get better. They have had back to back bad playoff series for sure. Don't think that means they stopped caring once they got paid.

Gallagher was pissed! and he sucked and produced very little in the playoffs so, while I get wanting to see that type of emotion from your players... I would be equally upset with Gallagher's individual performance as Leafs fans are with Matthews/Marner if I was a Habs fan.

Your quote on winners is fine I guess. Marner won a memorial cup and was OHL playoff MVP in his last season there. I think we've seen players lose and lose and lose and then eventually they win and we say they're winners. Before they won everyone said they were losers and couldn't win though.

 

[The CyNick]

Yeah I just disagree. We just watched Matthews put up a 65-goal paced 82 game season. His best season yet - and Marner produced top 5 in the league in scoring - continuing to increase his offensive output. I don't buy the idea that they stopped trying to get better. They have had back to back bad playoff series for sure. Don't think that means they stopped caring once they got paid.

Gallagher was pissed! and he sucked and produced very little in the playoffs so, while I get wanting to see that type of emotion from your players... I would be equally upset with Gallagher's individual performance as Leafs fans are with Matthews/Marner if I was a Habs fan.

Your quote on winners is fine I guess. Marner won a memorial cup and was OHL playoff MVP in his last season there. I think we've seen players lose and lose and lose and then eventually they win and we say they're winners. Before they won everyone said they were losers and couldn't win though.

Marner was great against plumbers and mechanics. Against the best of the best when the chips are down, he's invisible. He'll also certainly stack up those points in the fall when teams are playing loose hockey.

 

[egd27]

Surprised the mod hadn’t locked this one down yet

Why would they ?

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Marner was great against plumbers and mechanics. Against the best of the best when the chips are down, he's invisible. He'll also certainly stack up those points in the fall when teams are playing loose hockey.

Are the 2017-18 Boston Bruins plumbers and mechanics too?

 

[egd27]

The last two playoffs for both weren't good ones for them

What was different in the last two series than in the first three (where they produced)?

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

What was different in the last two series than in the first three (where they produced)?

Overall pressure ramping up due to the contracts, some puck luck - etc - all of the above?

So because they got paid and had two tough rounds they've proven they cannot moving forward improve from that/bounce back? That's where I get extremely confused by the vitrol here. I understand the emotion. Logically speaking though - do you think Marner and Matthews - on the leafs or on another team, will play bad in the playoffs/can't produce over the rest of their contracts and/or careers?

If the answer is yes, fine - move them. I don't think its likely though - I just don't.

 

[PromisedLand]

With the bennet signing

Bennett, Verhaeghe, Duclair, Weegar and Forsling combined make $14.31 million for the Panthers. Reinhart would probably round out at 21-22 million total of the cap.

Boston still plenty of cap space same with Montreal.

Ottawa up and coming and tampa is tampa

Well there is one optimistic thought I guess. After next season Dubas and co will be FIRED!

 

[egd27]

Overall pressure ramping up due to the contracts, some puck luck - etc - all of the above?

So because they got paid and had two tough rounds they've proven they cannot moving forward improve from that/bounce back? That's where I get extremely confused by the vitrol here. I understand the emotion. Logically speaking though - do you think Marner and Matthews - on the leafs or on another team, will play bad in the playoffs/can't produce over the rest of their contracts and/or careers?

If the answer is yes, fine - move them. I don't think its likely though - I just don't.

You're going way too deep. What was different in the last 2 post season series from the first 3.

 

[All Mod Cons]

You're going way too deep. What was different in the last 2 post season series from the first 3.

$$$$$$

 

[Racer88]

How does Matthews get into these LA parties when he lives in Toronto?

In the off season of course……which starts early for the Leafs

 

[egd27]

$$$$$$

Even simpler than that.

 

[The CyNick]

Are the 2017-18 Boston Bruins plumbers and mechanics too?

That was under Lou and Babcock, no? Different environment altogether and was still trying to prove himself. Since the new deal, I don't see him adapting his game at all. He's happy to collect his regular season points, have runway competitons with Matthews and call it a season. Then talk about posts and bad luck.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Even simpler than that.

The Coach - i get it. I wasn't happy with Keefe's performance in the last two series either. Hopefully he learns from it - if were talking about a coaching change - thats not something I would definitely oppose (depends who the guy is going to be to replace him - but yeah)

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

That was under Lou and Babcock, no? Different environment altogether and was still trying to prove himself. Since the new deal, I don't see him adapting his game at all. He's happy to collect his regular season points, have runway competitons with Matthews and call it a season. Then talk about posts and bad luck.

Well I guess he has something to prove now considering how people are talking about him so even with that logic the idea hes going to pack it in as you think he is for the rest of his career just seems outlandish to me.