Are you feeling more or less optimistic about the leafs future since Dubas took over?

[hotpaws]

Man Dubas is so stupid for signing some 700k defensemen to fill out the Marlies when we had Sandin, Liljegren, and Holl fighting for spots on the roster. It costs us nothing and you'd be the first one having a meltdown if someone else signed Lehtonen and he went on to be a passable #4.

At least we've moved on from complaining about the backup goalie and losing the great Par Lindholm to complaining about a 700k injury fill-in on defense.

where did i say i had a problem with the signing ? i just find it amusing how hard some people try to spin any move Dubas makes as a stroke of genius

yea who cares about having a competent b/u goalie even if it could have potentially cost us a playoff spot and who cares about giving up assets to acquire one when the Dube could have got one for free in the off season

and yea why complain about losing the great Par Lindholm when we can praise Dubas for acquiring the legend that is Evgeni Malgin

 

[Bomber0104]

where did i say i had a problem with the signing ? i just find it amusing how hard some people try to spin any move Dubas makes as a stroke of genius

yea who cares about having a competent b/u goalie even if it could have potentially cost us a playoff spot and who cares about giving up assets to acquire one when the Dube could have got one for free in the off season

and yea why complain about losing the great Par Lindholm when we can praise Dubas for acquiring the legend that is Evgeni Malgin

4th liners and 3rd pairings are Dubas' specialty, allegedly.

I guess you kind of have to cling to that hope when you're the only GM in the entire NHL to pay any 3 players, let alone 3 forwards $10.9M+...

 

[Dekes For Days]

Because he had 3 spectacular failures each worse than the last before he got to Campbell.

Where are you getting 3? He had Sparks and Hutchinson, and both were fine for the first half of their time with the Leafs.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Where are you getting 3? He had Sparks and Hutchinson, and both were fine for the first half of their time with the Leafs.

Neuvirth is the 3rd and the biggest since he got hurt before he even played a game.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Nashville: 1st in forward cap expenditure, 16th in GF
Toronto: 2nd in forward cap expenditure, 3rd in GF
Winnipeg: 3rd in forward cap expenditure, 17th in GF
Tampa: 4th in forward cap expenditure, 1st in GF
Pittsburgh: 5th in forward cap expenditure, 10th in GF
Washington: 6th in forward cap expenditure, 2nd in GF
NYI: 7th in cap expenditure, 22nd in GF

Looks like the Leafs are getting results out of their forward group, in line with the expenditure. Can't say the same for many teams...

 

[Dekes For Days]

Neuvirth is the 3rd and the biggest since he got hurt before he even played a game.

You consider Neuvirth getting a tryout, playing like 1 preseason game, and then being released a "failure"?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

You consider Neuvirth getting a tryout, playing like 1 preseason game, and then being released a "failure"? Good lord.

No I cconsidrr him a failure because he was clearly brought in with the intent to be the backup and couldn't even give them a pre season game

 

[Mickey Marner]

I compared the cap hit percentage of the Leafs top three AAVs to each Stanley cup winner of the cap era. The results were not inspiring. The salary cap would have to be at ~104 million for the Leafs to match the 32.1% average of the fourteen cup winners.

YEAR	CAP	PLAYER 1	CAP HIT	CAP HIT %	PLAYER 2	CAP HIT	CAP HIT %	PLAYER 3	CAP HIT	CAP HIT %	SUM
2006	39	WEIGHT*	5.7	14.6%	BRIND'AMOUR	3.8	9.7%	TVERDOVSKY	2.5	6.4%	30.8%
2007	44	NIEDERMAYER	6.75	15.3%	PRONGER	6.25	14.2%	GIGUERE	3.99	9.1%	38.6%
2008	50.3	LIDSTROM	7.6	15.1%	DATSYUK	6.7	13.3%	RAFALSKI	6	11.9%	40.4%
2009	56.7	CROSBY	8.7	15.3%	GONCHAR	5	8.8%	FLEURY	5	8.8%	33.0%
2010	56.8	CAMPBELL	7.143	12.6%	HUET	5.625	9.9%	HOSSA	5.275	9.3%	31.8%
2011	59.4	CHARA	7.5	12.6%	THOMAS	5	8.4%	BERGERON**	4.75	8.0%	29.0%
2012	64.3	DOUGHTY	7	10.9%	KOPITAR	6.8	10.6%	RICHARDS	5.75	8.9%	30.4%
2013	70.2	TOEWS	6.3	9.0%	KANE	6.3	9.0%	SHARP	5.9	8.4%	26.4%
2014	64.3	GABORIK*	7.5	11.7%	DOUGHTY	7	10.9%	KOPITAR	6.8	10.6%	33.1%
2015	69	TOEWS	6.3	9.1%	KANE	6.3	9.1%	CRAWFORD	6	8.7%	27.0%
2016	71.4	MALKIN	9.5	13.3%	CROSBY	8.7	12.2%	LETANG	7.25	10.2%	35.6%
2017	73	MALKIN	9.5	13.0%	CROSBY	8.7	11.9%	LETANG***	7.25	9.9%	34.9%
2018	75	OVECHKIN	9.538462	12.7%	KUZNETSOV	7.8	10.4%	BACKSTROM	6.7	8.9%	32.1%
2019	79.5	TARASENKO	7.5	9.4%	O'REILLY	7.5	9.4%	PIETRANGELO	6.5	8.2%	27.0%
		AVERAGE 1		12.5%	AVERAGE 2		10.6%	AVERAGE 3		9.1%	32.1%
2020	81.5	MATTHEWS	11.634	14.3%	TAVARES	11	13.5%	MARNER	10.893	13.4%	41.1%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*Deadline acquisition, not responsible for full cap hit.
**Savard had a higher AAV, but was permanently LTIR
***Letang DNP, Kessel makes it 34.2%

 

[Dekes For Days]

No I cconsidrr him a failure because he was clearly brought in with the intent to be the backup and couldn't even give them a pre season game

He wasn't "clearly brought in to be the backup". He wasn't even really brought in. He was given a tryout in a preseason game, because we knew he was an unknown, and then he was dismissed. Calling Dubas giving Neuvirth a preseason tryout a failure is one of the biggest stretches I've seen on here, and that's saying something.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Interestingly, didnt both Sandin AND Dermott play a bit on the right side under Keefe with the Marlies?

Yep, and Lehtonen played right side for a whole season and an international tournament, and is comfortable on both sides. But we're supposed to just accept that the defense sucks contrary to all evidence, and it always will for some, unless we get a shiny overrated and overpriced name that everybody recognizes.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I compared the cap hit percentage of the Leafs top three AAVs to each Stanley cup winner of the cap era. The results were not inspiring. The salary cap would have to be at ~104 million for the Leafs to match the 32.1% average of the fourteen cup winners.

YEAR	CAP	PLAYER 1	CAP HIT	CAP HIT %	PLAYER 2	CAP HIT	CAP HIT %	PLAYER 3	CAP HIT	CAP HIT %	SUM
2006	39	WEIGHT*	5.7	14.6%	BRIND'AMOUR	3.8	9.7%	TVERDOVSKY	2.5	6.4%	30.8%
2007	44	NIEDERMAYER	6.75	15.3%	PRONGER	6.25	14.2%	GIGUERE	3.99	9.1%	38.6%
2008	50.3	LIDSTROM	7.6	15.1%	DATSYUK	6.7	13.3%	RAFALSKI	6	11.9%	40.4%
2009	56.7	CROSBY	8.7	15.3%	GONCHAR	5	8.8%	FLEURY	5	8.8%	33.0%
2010	56.8	CAMPBELL	7.143	12.6%	HUET	5.625	9.9%	HOSSA	5.275	9.3%	31.8%
2011	59.4	CHARA	7.5	12.6%	THOMAS	5	8.4%	BERGERON**	4.75	8.0%	29.0%
2012	64.3	DOUGHTY	7	10.9%	KOPITAR	6.8	10.6%	RICHARDS	5.75	8.9%	30.4%
2013	70.2	TOEWS	6.3	9.0%	KANE	6.3	9.0%	SHARP	5.9	8.4%	26.4%
2014	64.3	GABORIK*	7.5	11.7%	DOUGHTY	7	10.9%	KOPITAR	6.8	10.6%	33.1%
2015	69	TOEWS	6.3	9.1%	KANE	6.3	9.1%	CRAWFORD	6	8.7%	27.0%
2016	71.4	MALKIN	9.5	13.3%	CROSBY	8.7	12.2%	LETANG	7.25	10.2%	35.6%
2017	73	MALKIN	9.5	13.0%	CROSBY	8.7	11.9%	LETANG***	7.25	9.9%	34.9%
2018	75	OVECHKIN	9.538462	12.7%	KUZNETSOV	7.8	10.4%	BACKSTROM	6.7	8.9%	32.1%
2019	79.5	TARASENKO	7.5	9.4%	O'REILLY	7.5	9.4%	PIETRANGELO	6.5	8.2%	27.0%
		AVERAGE 1		12.5%	AVERAGE 2		10.6%	AVERAGE 3		9.1%	32.1%
2020	81.5	MATTHEWS	11.634	14.3%	TAVARES	11	13.5%	MARNER	10.893	13.4%	41.1%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*Deadline acquisition, not responsible for full cap hit.
**Savard had a higher AAV, but was permanently LTIR
***Letang DNP, Kessel makes it 34.2%

Half those teams had contracts that would be illegal today. Hossa at 5.25 is more like Hossa at 7.9 when you count the years he actually intended on playing before he got allergic to playing for a mil a year.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Half those teams had contracts that would be illegal today. Hossa at 5.25 is more like Hossa at 7.9 when you count the years he actually intended on playing before he got allergic to playing for a mil a year.

Those teams also had to play against teams with contracts that would be illegal today, they were not the sole beneficiaries. Where as we have not yet had the pleasure to play against a team with a similar cap structure to ours. There is no historical precedence for paying three forwards this large a portion of the cap and winning the cup. Let alone doing so with the help on defense.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Those teams also had to play against teams with contracts that would be illegal today, they were not the sole beneficiaries.

Not all of them did, and those teams were largely the greatest beneficiaries.

There is no historical precedence for paying three forwards this large a portion of the cap and winning the cup.

First off, judging teams on solely the top 3 contracts is pretty much worthless.
Second, yes there is precedent for winning. According to your own chart, Detroit won while paying 0.7% less; a negligible amount.
Third, you measured the cap hit percentages at time of winning, not at time of signing (for which there is more precedent). In comparison to our contracts which have been signed very recently, not really a fair comparison.

 

[Bomber0104]

I compared the cap hit percentage of the Leafs top three AAVs to each Stanley cup winner of the cap era. The results were not inspiring. The salary cap would have to be at ~104 million for the Leafs to match the 32.1% average of the fourteen cup winners.

YEAR	CAP	PLAYER 1	CAP HIT	CAP HIT %	PLAYER 2	CAP HIT	CAP HIT %	PLAYER 3	CAP HIT	CAP HIT %	SUM
2006	39	WEIGHT*	5.7	14.6%	BRIND'AMOUR	3.8	9.7%	TVERDOVSKY	2.5	6.4%	30.8%
2007	44	NIEDERMAYER	6.75	15.3%	PRONGER	6.25	14.2%	GIGUERE	3.99	9.1%	38.6%
2008	50.3	LIDSTROM	7.6	15.1%	DATSYUK	6.7	13.3%	RAFALSKI	6	11.9%	40.4%
2009	56.7	CROSBY	8.7	15.3%	GONCHAR	5	8.8%	FLEURY	5	8.8%	33.0%
2010	56.8	CAMPBELL	7.143	12.6%	HUET	5.625	9.9%	HOSSA	5.275	9.3%	31.8%
2011	59.4	CHARA	7.5	12.6%	THOMAS	5	8.4%	BERGERON**	4.75	8.0%	29.0%
2012	64.3	DOUGHTY	7	10.9%	KOPITAR	6.8	10.6%	RICHARDS	5.75	8.9%	30.4%
2013	70.2	TOEWS	6.3	9.0%	KANE	6.3	9.0%	SHARP	5.9	8.4%	26.4%
2014	64.3	GABORIK*	7.5	11.7%	DOUGHTY	7	10.9%	KOPITAR	6.8	10.6%	33.1%
2015	69	TOEWS	6.3	9.1%	KANE	6.3	9.1%	CRAWFORD	6	8.7%	27.0%
2016	71.4	MALKIN	9.5	13.3%	CROSBY	8.7	12.2%	LETANG	7.25	10.2%	35.6%
2017	73	MALKIN	9.5	13.0%	CROSBY	8.7	11.9%	LETANG***	7.25	9.9%	34.9%
2018	75	OVECHKIN	9.538462	12.7%	KUZNETSOV	7.8	10.4%	BACKSTROM	6.7	8.9%	32.1%
2019	79.5	TARASENKO	7.5	9.4%	O'REILLY	7.5	9.4%	PIETRANGELO	6.5	8.2%	27.0%
		AVERAGE 1		12.5%	AVERAGE 2		10.6%	AVERAGE 3		9.1%	32.1%
2020	81.5	MATTHEWS	11.634	14.3%	TAVARES	11	13.5%	MARNER	10.893	13.4%	41.1%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*Deadline acquisition, not responsible for full cap hit.
**Savard had a higher AAV, but was permanently LTIR
***Letang DNP, Kessel makes it 34.2%

Most interesting is the fact that nearly every Cup winner includes either a Defenceman or a Goalie at the top earnings...

The Leafs have 3 forwards which appears to be a divergence from how most Cup winners are assembled.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Not all of them did, and those teams were largely the greatest beneficiaries.

First off, judging teams on solely the top 3 contracts is pretty much worthless.
Second, yes there is precedent for winning. According to your own chart, Detroit won while paying 0.7% less; a negligible amount.
Third, you measured the cap hit percentages at time of winning, not at time of signing (for which there is more precedent). In comparison to our contracts which have been signed very recently, not really a fair comparison.

Detroit wasn't paying 3 forwards that much. Of course I used it as a percentage of the season they won. The point is to evaluate whether you can win with this cap distribution. Ovechkin's cap hit% against the 07-08 cap is irrelevant to Washington's 2017-18 cup win. If the evidence suggests Leafs cap allocation can only become successful as the cap ceiling approaches 100 million, then why bother.

If changes need to be made, make them. No need to be precious about the players, coaches or management. I'll undoubtedly be a fan long after they're gone whether they can get it done or not. I want the Leafs to have the best team, I don't want the team the Leafs already have to be the best.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Detroit wasn't paying 3 forwards that much.

Makes no difference. The point of this data is the amount of cap space you have left for the rest of the team. Detroit had 3 players taking up a similar amount of cap space.

Of course I used it as a percentage of the season they won. The point is to evaluate whether you can win with this cap distribution.

Except aside from the massive issues with evaluating teams based solely on 3 players and their cap hit percentages with no consideration for their quality or for the rest of the team, you're drawing conclusions about signing the players to those cap hits, which is not the same thing, and is something many of those teams did.

Ovechkin's cap hit% against the 07-08 cap is irrelevant to Washington's 2017-18 cup win.

Except it's not. If he didn't have an illegal contract, he would have a new contract. It shows how long these illegal contracts have impacted things and provided advantage, which really just makes all of the data you posted even more irrelevant than it already was.

If the evidence suggests Leafs cap allocation can only become successful as the cap ceiling approaches 100 million, then why bother.

Not only would we have hit a 100 mil cap within their contracts without this coronavirus impact, the evidence does not suggest those are the only things that can be successful. You are not measuring what can be successful. You are measuring one very narrow viewpoint of what has been "successful", heavily tainted by contracts that are no longer legal.

If changes need to be made, make them.

And if changes don't need to be made, don't make them for the sake of making them. You will almost always lose trading away players of that caliber.

 

[hotpaws]

Except it's not. If he didn't have an illegal contract, he would have a new contract. It shows how long these illegal contracts have impacted things and provided advantage, which really just makes all of the data you posted even more irrelevant than it already was.

Ovi's contract is not why the league changed CBA to add term limits , it was the back sliding deals like Hossa's where years were tacked on at 1m per to lower the cap hit which the league targeted .

and while Ovi's deal is 13 years his actual salary is larger at the end than the beginning and he'll complete the entire term of the contract

you just go from thread to thread posting half truths and random non sense

 

[Dekes For Days]

Ovi's contract is not why the league changed CBA to add term limits , it was the back sliding deals like Hossa's where years were tacked on at 1m per to lower the cap hit which the league targeted . and while Ovi's deal is 13 years his actual salary is larger at the end than the beginning and he'll complete the entire term of the contract

It doesn't matter why the league changed the rules. What matters is the rules changed, giving contracts like that a distinct advantage. His actual salary being paid is also irrelevant. What is being measured is his cap hit percentage, which has dropped considerably when compared to the current cap after over a decade.

 

[Mess]

Detroit wasn't paying 3 forwards that much. Of course I used it as a percentage of the season they won. The point is to evaluate whether you can win with this cap distribution. Ovechkin's cap hit% against the 07-08 cap is irrelevant to Washington's 2017-18 cup win. If the evidence suggests Leafs cap allocation can only become successful as the cap ceiling approaches 100 million, then why bother.

If changes need to be made, make them. No need to be precious about the players, coaches or management. I'll undoubtedly be a fan long after they're gone whether they can get it done or not. I want the Leafs to have the best team, I don't want the team the Leafs already have to be the best.

You have nailed this spot on.. Its precisely my thoughts as well when it comes to determining my optimism level of Leafs success going forward, and why its disappointment not excitement.

*** Leafs Cup competitive window is realistically the next 5 years ***.

However due to Dubas excessive spending and C.H.% of top players this team IS NOT built to be competitive at $81.5 mil (today) but years down the road as the Cap approaches $95-100 mil, and their current C.H.% come down as a % of total cap to allow the team around them being iced to be more competitive.

5 years ago in 2016 the Cap ceiling was $71.4 mil and today its $81.5 mil, so that shows average salary cap growth = $10 mil / 5 years or approx $2 mil on average. So based on this 5 years from today that Cap will be $89.5 mil and $91.5 mil in 6 years.

However Matthews and Nylander's current contracts end in 5 years and JT and Marner in 6 years.

Years 2020 ----- Leafs Cup Window opens --- 2025 ... (Salary Cap ~ $81.5 - $89.5)

but based on C.H.% as cap goes UP and CH% come down

Years 2026 ---- Leafs Salary Cap Hit % Window opens ---- 2030 .. (Salary Cap ~ $91.5 - 99.5 mil)

So Dubas overspent today's 5 year realistic window of opportunity by handing out 3 of the top 7 highest AAV contracts in the NHL, and by the time their C.H.% advantage window (+5 years down the road) opens the current top 4 players will no longer be under current contracts, due to the short terms handed out buying only a small window of time on these contracts, where on 8 year deals there would have been an overlapping of windows. In the mean time all the teams like Boston, TB, Pittsburgh etc that have cores that are built to win now & have corresponding advantages C.H.% to be successful base on current salary cap have their 5 year windows overlapping. Bang for your cap $ buck as I like to put it.

PS. This was prior to a World wide Pandemic throwing a firetrucking monkey wrench into any realistic cap growth projections going forward, which now makes Leafs situation only worse, with a potential flat or even worse declining cap in upcoming years ahead.

 

[Dekes For Days]

this team is not built to be competitive at $81.5 mil (today) but years down the road as the Cap approaches $95-100 mil

The team is built to and is fully capable of being competitive way before the cap reaches 95m.

5 years ago in 2016 the Cap ceiling was $71.4 mil and today its $81.5 mil, so that shows average salary cap growth = $10 mil / 5 years or approx $2 mil on average.

Salary growth is not close to consistent from year to year, and was certainly not projected to be that stagnant over the next 5 years.

 

[stickty111]

This is one of the reasons why Dubas beats other teams in convincing players to come here

 

[rent free]

dubas is showing how to build a winning culture?

 

[deletethis]

Only self-destructive fools would publicly badmouth anyone in their own industry. Positive words about your former colleagues are the expected default. Bitter words are little more than a red flag about the person uttering them.

 

[kb]

Only self-destructive fools would publicly badmouth anyone in their own industry. Positive words about your former colleagues are the expected default. Bitter words are little more than a red flag about the person uttering them.

*Thinks back to Babcock*

Yup, checks out.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

dubas is showing how to build a winning culture?

Read it and weep suka haha