Speculation: And yet again...the Off-Topic Thread

Geezer WC

Standing room
Jan 29, 2022
372
254
@ Ogee and Gniwder..Is Point Roberts still stuck in time or has it been turned into a bunch of condos? It's been a very long time since I spent a couple summers there. Thanks.
 

TCNorthstars

Registered User
Jan 5, 2009
4,348
1,869
Lansing area, MI
I noticed the other day that real estate prices got pretty stupid in SE Michigan like it did elsewhere. Everything is at least 50% over pre-COVID prices even with rates at 20+ year high. I was looking at a possible transfer to our Novi office, thought it'd be a lot cheaper than my current location (WA state).

Someone asked me when they should buy, I said if you don't own a house already you're either crewed or more screwed, lol. I don;t think timing matters much anymore.

The right time to buy has always been and will always be when you can afford to. We have been spoiled by historically low rates recently.
 
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Gniwder

Registered User
Oct 12, 2009
14,964
8,144
Bellingham, WA
I think I need to return to Texas as soon as I can get a transfer for work. I’ve regretted the move to Seattle since December.
I don't regret my move, but it's time to move on I think. 12 years in the same job is a bit much. Prior to this, the longest I've stayed in one position was 3 years.

@ Ogee and Gniwder..Is Point Roberts still stuck in time or has it been turned into a bunch of condos? It's been a very long time since I spent a couple summers there. Thanks.
Stuck in time, just look at a satellite photo on Google Maps.


The right time to buy has always been and will always be when you can afford to. We have been spoiled by historically low rates recently.
I agree. Some people are expecting another 2008-like collapse, and it's not gonna happen. In 2013 I actually paid less for my house than the previous owner paid in 2007.

Historically low rates were made possible by no inflation. The Fed pumped so much money into the economy during COVID that they're gonna have keep rates up until those treasuries and MBS expire. They can't sell because all of that stuff is so far under water.... Anyways, Fed balance sheet plot:

 
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FabricDetails

HF still in need of automated text analytics
Mar 30, 2009
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4,035
It's not about being ashamed at going. I was surprised at how funny it was. 10/10 do recommend.
I agree with this, haha. It was hilarious to me. I can see some people getting overly sensitive about all the trigger words but whatever. The breaking of the 4th wall might be my most favorite low key part.

Well, if you introduce the Brazilian to the beaches in Chicagoland you will definitely stand out from the wookies that roamed about when I lived there:laugh:.
You beachin' someone off? (Barbie movie reference)
 

heyfolks

Registered User
Apr 30, 2007
2,079
786
Real Estate: I've made good money, and stupid money in this sector, but damn this is an odd market these days. Builds are slowing, sales are slowing, days on market are longer and homes are no longer selling for over list. That said, year over year values are still rising.

I sold two ocean view homes in 20 (bought in 12 and 17). Made a killing. Invested in Texas land and bought a retirement lot in Costa Rica. Those prices are skyrocketing (but so are build costs).

Sounds good, and is good (at least for me). The missus isn't thrilled with renting since 20. It's made worse by my annual spring time robin song of ... we'll build next year, when the market tanks. LOL!
 

Axel Sandy Pelikan

Sugar-free Rock Star
May 11, 2023
1,529
1,734
Holy f*** gutting a basement is hard work. Necessary, but hard. Couple potential water entrance places, but by and large, it's sound. The basement kinda smelled prior to this.
 
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Konnan511

#RetireHronek17
Sponsor
Jul 29, 2008
9,835
3,619
Sarasota, FL
So I am looking to move on from my job. The people above me are lifers and I cannot pass them in the chain. Anyone got some remote work from their company I may be able to do? I use to manage resorts in Northern Michigan in guest services and since moving to Florida I have been working in inside sales (top producer for the company). DM for any opportunities if possible. (sorry if this is against the rules).
 

jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
11,563
9,603
So I am looking to move on from my job. The people above me are lifers and I cannot pass them in the chain. Anyone got some remote work from their company I may be able to do? I use to manage resorts in Northern Michigan in guest services and since moving to Florida I have been working in inside sales (top producer for the company). DM for any opportunities if possible. (sorry if this is against the rules).
On a serious note, good luck and I hope you find some great opportunities soon.

On a less serious note, I think @Bench might need a collaborator with his new fan fiction enterprise...
 

Axel Sandy Pelikan

Sugar-free Rock Star
May 11, 2023
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House is progressing well, we have gotten a hell of a lot done. The “partially finished” basement was finished very poorly. There were a couple wet spots which will necessitate bleaching and sealing with Kilz, but overall it’s quite solid. I’ve just never seen so much f***in dust

Previous owner had about eight cable splitters. Replacing one worn floor with LVP, refinishing the other hardwood floors. Repainting all main floor rooms. Light gray on most, a dark red (burgundy) for kitchen, basically Pistons turquoise for my rooom and a gray with a bit more blue for my sister’s who is renting from me
 
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Bondurant

Registered User
Jul 4, 2012
6,610
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Phoenix, Arizona
Barstool Sportsbook app has not been working for days and their customer service stinks. Immaculate Grid Hockey does not work.

Terrible day. But I got some reading out of the way!
 

jaster

I am become woke, destroyer of ignorance.
Jun 8, 2007
13,961
9,787
I went and saw Barbie with my wife. I sat next to a little girl. Before it started I said to her, “we’re here to see Oppenheimer, right?” She didn’t know what that meant, but after a couple women nearby laughed, the little girl laughed, and I was like hell yeah, kid, let’s watch this Barbie movie.

She didn’t get the jokes about genitals, but I think she enjoyed it anyway. Good flick.
 

FabricDetails

HF still in need of automated text analytics
Mar 30, 2009
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I went and saw Barbie with my wife. I sat next to a little girl. Before it started I said to her, “we’re here to see Oppenheimer, right?” She didn’t know what that meant, but after a couple women nearby laughed, the little girl laughed, and I was like hell yeah, kid, let’s watch this Barbie movie.

She didn’t get the jokes about genitals, but I think she enjoyed it anyway. Good flick.
Your new job beach?
 

FabricDetails

HF still in need of automated text analytics
Mar 30, 2009
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At the risk of getting deleted (and/or SPAM-ed), if anyone is willing to DM me comprehensive articles about the modern history of Detroit and how we got to where we are today, please do. Like how people see the images of abandoned buildings but don't understand the ownership underneath that real estate, tax implications, etc. Really not trying to start shit. It's just been a while since I've explored the topic.

...To say that I'm nervous about the feedback I'm going to get is an understatement. I have no interest in engaging in a never ending blame game but am curious about perspectives.
 

Gniwder

Registered User
Oct 12, 2009
14,964
8,144
Bellingham, WA
At the risk of getting deleted (and/or SPAM-ed), if anyone is willing to DM me comprehensive articles about the modern history of Detroit and how we got to where we are today, please do. Like how people see the images of abandoned buildings but don't understand the ownership underneath that real estate, tax implications, etc. Really not trying to start shit. It's just been a while since I've explored the topic.

...To say that I'm nervous about the feedback I'm going to get is an understatement. I have no interest in engaging in a never ending blame game but am curious about perspectives.

I don't think you can discuss any history of Detroit without it getting political, Wiki has a nice summary though.

As for taxes, Detroit has some of the highest property tax rates in order to make up for low valuations. It's a vicious cycle, since high taxes is a deterrent to buying. I lived in Fairlane Woods on the edge of Dearborn for a year back in the early 90's, the houses across Ford Rd have always been under $100k, and still are. There's no appreciation in home value because of taxes. Here's a good article on Detroit's tax rates:

Anyways, the owners of abandoned buildings are still liable for the taxes on the property. Usually what happens is that they stop paying taxes and the city puts a lien on the house. Eventually they foreclose on the property, and the lot becomes city owned. There is a process for buying these homes:

It's a long list:

The list is long because there's no money to be made buying property in Detroit with the high taxes. Even without the other issues that the city has, that lone will keep property values in check. Michigan is a bit weird because every little city has it's own tax rate, in other states, it's usually done by county. The county also runs the public schools, having each city running schools is very inefficient. For example, here are the tax rates of Oakland County cities:

Resolving the issue involves politics, so I'm not going there.
 
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Axel Sandy Pelikan

Sugar-free Rock Star
May 11, 2023
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I don't think you can discuss any history of Detroit without it getting political, Wiki has a nice summary though.

As for taxes, Detroit has some of the highest property tax rates in order to make up for low valuations. It's a vicious cycle, since high taxes is a deterrent to buying. I lived in Fairlane Woods on the edge of Dearborn for a year back in the early 90's, the houses across Ford Rd have always been under $100k, and still are. There's no appreciation in home value because of taxes. Here's a good article on Detroit's tax rates:

Anyways, the owners of abandoned buildings are still liable for the taxes on the property. Usually what happens is that they stop paying taxes and the city puts a lien on the house. Eventually they foreclose on the property, and the lot becomes city owned. There is a process for buying these homes:

It's a long list:

The list is long because there's no money to be made buying property in Detroit with the high taxes. Even without the other issues that the city has, that lone will keep property values in check. Michigan is a bit weird because every little city has it's own tax rate, in other states, it's usually done by county. The county also runs the public schools, having each city running schools is very inefficient. For example, here are the tax rates of Oakland County cities:

Resolving the issue involves politics, so I'm not going there.

Further, and stay away from the thorny issues... one of Detroit's largest issues was poor city planning as the massive automotive plants that drove so much prosperity aged into obsolescence, the city and the auto companies did not plan forward for their refurbishment, upgrade, or replacement in any substantive way. So, you had the massive facilities like the Packard Plant that employed thousands and provided loads of cash in property tax now sit entirely vacant.

Further, a portion of the urban sprawl in the 60s-90s out to the suburbs was the wage boom for the average auto worker through overtime. You had line workers that wanted land that you couldn't get in the postage stamp lots in Detroit. There were big government subsidies on building SFHs (which is why when you look at the SE Mich real estate market, you're incredibly likely to see ranches in the Metro Detroit area built in 1956-1968 en masse in neighborhoods. It's part of why the inventory will be shitty for awhile currently. Builders aren't being incentivized in the way they were 60 years ago.

To follow Gniwder's point... Ypsilanti City has a big property tax/valuation problem too. Detroit's is much more massive because the city is f***in huge but basically, there are huge chunks of Ypsi that are completely non-taxable (Eastern is the biggest but also several churches) and therefore, to make up the revenue, the taxes have to be higher on the property owned by the populace per capita. Detroit's problem is multiple-fold. Same as Ypsi, there are non-taxable plots due to schools, churches, and similar. However, the many vacant lots also do not provide tax revenue. And so often, the City would have to abate taxes to get more lucrative industries to come in. Like when Hollywood was using Detroit for a hot minute, the City accomplished that by kicking in huge tax breaks to make it appealing. That falls apart when the industry hops town for the next locale that will give them a pretty package instead of sticking around to pay the full freight on taxes when the abatements end.

There are certainly many reasons... but a good chunk of Detroit's problems can be drilled directly down to the flow of cash.
 

Gniwder

Registered User
Oct 12, 2009
14,964
8,144
Bellingham, WA
Further, and stay away from the thorny issues... one of Detroit's largest issues was poor city planning as the massive automotive plants that drove so much prosperity aged into obsolescence, the city and the auto companies did not plan forward for their refurbishment, upgrade, or replacement in any substantive way. So, you had the massive facilities like the Packard Plant that employed thousands and provided loads of cash in property tax now sit entirely vacant.
The Packard Plant is a good example of what happens to these abandoned properties, at one point the city owned the whole thing through tax foreclosure, and ownership has been a CF ever since they auctioned it.


Given the cost of demolition, it makes more sense to buy property AFTER the city demolishes whatever is on the property, whether it's a factory or a house.
 

Bondurant

Registered User
Jul 4, 2012
6,610
6,128
Phoenix, Arizona
Is anyone else going to Sweden for the Wings games? Thought I was going to find good deals traveling offseason. I thought wrong. Finalized all my bookings. Lodging is expensive. Even the hostels I was seeing were quoting $75 per night and had no availability. Ah, well. Expensive as hell but a rare occasion.
 

Bondurant

Registered User
Jul 4, 2012
6,610
6,128
Phoenix, Arizona
At the risk of getting deleted (and/or SPAM-ed), if anyone is willing to DM me comprehensive articles about the modern history of Detroit and how we got to where we are today, please do. Like how people see the images of abandoned buildings but don't understand the ownership underneath that real estate, tax implications, etc. Really not trying to start shit. It's just been a while since I've explored the topic.

...To say that I'm nervous about the feedback I'm going to get is an understatement. I have no interest in engaging in a never ending blame game but am curious about perspectives.
Violence in the Model City by Sidney Fine. The summer of '67 is the primary focus but it digs deep into the political and economic factors of Detroit beginning a decade prior. One of my all-time favorite books.
 
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Gniwder

Registered User
Oct 12, 2009
14,964
8,144
Bellingham, WA
It's part of why the inventory will be shitty for awhile currently. Builders aren't being incentivized in the way they were 60 years ago.
I'm looking at Zillow right now because I'm contemplating applying for a transfer to Novi, I see decent inventory of houses on Zillow. I think the bigger factor for new construction is that the population in Michigan isn't increasing so there's no reason to build new houses.

I'm tempted to buy a smaller house and some property up north. I don't really think property is that good of an investment in Michigan, because I think more people will move out as the auto companies switch over to EV.
 

ManwithNoIdentity

Registered User
Jun 4, 2016
6,975
4,427
Kalamazoo, MI
IMG_6773.jpeg
 
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Konnan511

#RetireHronek17
Sponsor
Jul 29, 2008
9,835
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Sarasota, FL
I sank wayyyy too many into Balder's Gate 3 this weekend. My GF is not happy, but our level 6 Wizard, Paladin, and Sorcerer were happy my level 6 Battlemaster Fighter was able to join.
 
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