Blue Jays Discussion: And the off-season begins (list of FA's in Post #1)

[Cor]

Vlad is still about 2-3 years out, maybe more.

And he'll be 3B. Eventual replacement for Donaldson

 

[theaub]

That team would win 65 games

 

[Patmac40]

I think Shapiro will do a good job. Look at his footprints in Cleveland... He has drafted extremely well there, as we can see now. Hoping he can do the same here. Turn this fairly old lineup into a younger one without tearing it down.

Also, I think when our kids crack the lineup we'll be a better team. I'm talking about Urena, Vlad Jr., Alford, Tellez and Reid-Foley specifically. Those guys have elite potential.

My hopes for next season:

Sanchez
Estrada
Happ
Stroman
Reid-Foley

Liriano, Biagini, Barnes, X
Cecil, Jansen?
Osuna

Travis 2B
Donaldson 3B
Encarnacion DH
Tulowitzki SS
Tellez 1B
Martin C
Vlad Jr. LF (not sure if it's smart to move him back to OF as he's better at 3B IMO but who knows)
Reddick RF
Pillar CF

Carrera OF, Smoak 1B/DH, Barney 2B/SS, Pompey OF, Navarro C

Urena doesn't step in until Tulowitzki is gone (he's my favorite prospect)
Alford IMO isn't ready just yet. But he will be a good player
McGuire doesn't make the team until Martin/Navarro are gone

???????

That team would get rolled. Vlad is 17 and both Tellez and SRF need a little bit more time IMO. We need to bring in more experienced guys to fill the holes in the lineup.

 

[TimeZone]

I think at some point in the future Maddon will actually cost Chicago a playoff berth, a playoff series or maybe even a World Series by arrogantly over-thinking game strategy. He came so close last night to doing that and probably didn't learn his lesson. The game would have been a walk if he had only kept Hendricks in for his typical start then let Lester finish the game. He threw away an out by attempting a squeeze with two strikes with a player who has one career sacrifice.

I completely agree. He was absolutely horrendous last night. Almost cost them the Championship.

 

[Discoverer]

Vlad is still about 2-3 years out, maybe more.

And he'll be 3B. Eventual replacement for Donaldson

Oh come on... he skipped the GCL this year, who's to say he can't skip the Vancouver, Lansing, Dunedin, New Hampshire and Buffalo in 2017?

 

[Canada4Gold]

I don't know about a 65 win team, but they wouldn't win anymore than 75.

Assuming X in the pen is another player then it also had 26 players on the roster.

Vlad Jr is nowhere near this team for at least 2 years, SRF isn't on this team next year either. Tellez is a longshot though I think he's ready.

EE, Cecil, Jansen, Reddick would be a solid 4 guys to add/retain though.

 

[TOGuy14]

What is with people penciling Vlad Jr into the lineup as a full time next year?

He is our "top prospect" but he is 17 and currently in low A ball. He is years away from the big leagues.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Let me try, one77. I'm sober, so maybe it will turn out slightly different.

C) Martin
1b) Encarnacion (4Y @ $20MM)
2b) Travis
3b) Donaldson
SS) Tulo
LF) Pagan (S) (1Y @ $5.5MM)
CF) Pillar
RF) Pollack (Acquired for Pompey, Greene, something shiny)
DH) Joyce (L) \ Pearce (R) (1Y @ ~$5MM each)

Bench: Ellis, Barney/Goins, T. Holt
Rotation: Sanchez, Stroman, Happ, Estrada, Liriano
Bullpen: Osuna, Grilli, Biaginni, Hudson, Turner, Germen, Cecil (L)\Loup (L)

 

[zeke]

What is with people penciling Vlad Jr into the lineup as a full time next year?

He is our "top prospect" but he is 17 and currently in low A ball. He is years away from the big leagues.

I think he breaks in at 19 or 20.

 

[Discoverer]

I don't know about a 65 win team, but they wouldn't win anymore than 75.

Assuming X in the pen is another player then it also had 26 players on the roster.

Vlad Jr is nowhere near this team for at least 2 years, SRF isn't on this team next year either. Tellez is a longshot though I think he's ready.

EE, Cecil, Jansen, Reddick would be a solid 4 guys to add/retain though.

Yeah, 65 seems like a hell of a stretch. Including Reid-Foley and (especially) Guerrero is... uh... an "interesting" strategy... but other than that there aren't really any major holes in the roster. Replace those two with league-average players and you've got a competitive team.

Starting the year with Rowdy on the team is a bold move.
Starting the year with Reid-Foley in the rotation is crazy and unnecessary.
Starting the year with Guerrero in the OF is pure insanity.

Rowdy will be in Buffalo, Reid-Foley will be in New Hampshire, and Guerrero will be in Lansing.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I think he breaks in at 19 or 20.

18: A-\A
19: A\A+
20: ?? Profit ??

 

[Discoverer]

I think he breaks in at 19 or 20.

Nineteen would require extremely aggressive movement and best case scenario performance. It would mean something like splitting 2017 between Lansing and Dunedin, starting 2018 at New Hampshire, getting a mid-season promotion to Buffalo and a September call-up.

I think 20 is reasonable, but even that would require a hell of a performance.

 

[Discoverer]

18: A-\A
19: A\A+
20: ?? Profit ??

I wouldn't be surprised if he skips Vancouver to get him to full-season ball this year.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I wouldn't be surprised if he skips Vancouver to get him to full-season ball this year.

I could see that.

18: A
19: A+
20: ?? Profit ??

The young man had a wRC+ of 122 in A-. Let's pump the breaks.

 

[Discoverer]

I could see that.

18: A
19: A+
20: ?? Profit ??

The young man had a wRC+ of 122 in A-. Let's pump the breaks.

Not even A-... rookie ball.

Still though, a 17-year-old with a 122 wRC+ in the Appalachian league is outstanding, and that, plus the way he did it (lots of power, lots of walks, few strikeouts) suggests he's going to be a very good major league hitter in the future. Unfortunately, it also suggests he would be absolutely awful in the majors right now.

 

[The Nemesis]

I don't want Vlad to skip Short-season A. Just give me a couple weeks to get out and see him live, then move him up.

 

[Discoverer]

Fun facts:

- The last player to amass even 100 plate appearances in his age-18 season was Robin Yount in 1974.
- The last (and only) player to have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in his age-18 season was Phil Cavarretta in 1935.
- The last (and only) player to have 200 plate appearances and actually have a league-average batting line was Johnny Lush in 1904.

Even the most dominant 18-year-old players of all time pretty much suck compared to actual major leaguers.

 

[deletethis]

I believe that the youngest Blue Jay ever is catcher Brian Milner in 1978. Used as a gimmick to get a 1st round caliber picked in the 7th round to sign, Milner had 4 hits in 9 ABs. He went on to have injury and health problems retiring at the age of 22.

 

[Eyedea]

It's kind of funny how the weaknesses in junior's game (swing path, discipline, barrel control) are now strengths similar to his dad. That "fringe starting option" ceiling Dan Farnsworth tossed out on him before the season is now the complete opposite that John Manuel has wrote (60+ bat, 70 power, 50 runner).

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I could see that.

18: A
19: A+
20: ?? Profit ??

The young man had a wRC+ of 122 in A-. Let's pump the breaks.

He had a 122 wRC+ as a 17 year old. Age matters here lol he was the youngest player in the league. Put him in full season ball next year see how he does and him breaking into the league as a 20 year old really isn't that crazy.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Yeah I'd start Vlad in Lansing next year. Sad for those in Vancouver wanting to see him. I was surprised he didn't get a taste of that this year, but I want him playing minor league games for those first 2 months instead of extended spring and then Vancouver. If short season ball went April to June I might have a different opinion.

 

[The Nemesis]

There have been a whole bunch of rebrands across the minors this off-season and it's hilarious how curmudgeonly milb fans have been about the trend toward oddball names (the 5 teams I saw get branded were named the hillcats, wood ducks, fire frogs, jumbo shrimp, and rumble ponies.)

Yes,the names are silly. But that's the point. I've seen marketing discussions that talk about how the most important thing for these teams is getting kids interested because kid's get their families to the games and that's the lifeblood of minor league ball. It's like traditionalist stuffed-shirt fans feel their masculinity is at stake if they cheer for a team named the "Yard Goats" or that they need their single A team to have a serious, MLB style name to validate their sporting existence.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Little strange. Barney is supposed to be arbitration eligible, and you would assume Navarro elected free agency like everyone else, because I'm not sure what the alternative is(play for league minimum for your current team?). Maybe they just got them mixed up.

 

[Mitchy]

I still can't believe I witnessed a Cubs World Series win.

 

[trellaine201]

Little strange. Barney is supposed to be arbitration eligible, and you would assume Navarro elected free agency like everyone else, because I'm not sure what the alternative is(play for league minimum for your current team?). Maybe they just got them mixed up.

This from baseball reference:

2016 Status Signed thru 2016, Earliest Arb Eligible: 2017, Earliest Free Agent: 2018

shrug