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Proposal: Anaheim-Edmonton

MessierThanThou said:
Gibson is 5th in GSAx since the last post:

NHL Goalie Advanced Stats 2024-2025

NHL Goalie Analytics, Goals Saved Above Expected
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Anaheim has a legitimate chance at making the playoffs with their tandem so he might not even be available anymore...
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For the Ducks to make the playoffs they probably have to play .750+ hockey down the stretch and that still might not be enough. They are 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
 
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At the start of the season Verbeek said he wanted the team to be playing “meaningful games” in March and they are poised to do that. Trading Gibson would be a big step back unless the return was just too good to pass up.
 
FWIW, money puck recently released a new model for tracking playoff and lottery odds. They currently show the Ducks with a 6.5% chance of making playoffs, and a 5% chance of landing the first overall pick.

moneypuck.com

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2025 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Stanley Cup Odds, Playoff seeding, and Draft Lottery Odds
moneypuck.com moneypuck.com
 
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tomd said:
At the start of the season Verbeek said he wanted the team to be playing “meaningful games” in March and they are poised to do that. Trading Gibson would be a big step back unless the return was just too good to pass up.
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Did they know Dostal was this good at that point?
 
Whoshattenkirkshoes said:
Did they know Dostal was this good at that point?
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Yes, I think they did since he had a pretty good season last year and a fantastic World Cup (or whatever they called it) this past summer. That said, I don't think they were comfortable that he could play 60 games and still hold up at this point. Between Dostal and Gibson, the Ducks are getting playoff goaltending every night.
 
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tomd said:
Yes, I think they did since he had a pretty good season last year and a fantastic World Cup (or whatever they called it) this past summer. That said, I don't think they were comfortable that he could play 60 games and still hold up at this point. Between Dostal and Gibson, the Ducks are getting playoff goaltending every night.
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Some people seem to think that because it's a rebuilding team, then it really doesn't matter if your goalies (or everything else besides your young guys for that matter) are garbage some nights, since you aren't gonna win games anyway. But it's harder to preach system discipline to a young team if you can't count on your netminding. And truly reliable backups aren't as common/simple to acquire as some seem to think, or else no one would ever have a backup (or even short term starter) that they're frustrated by.

In trading Gibson they have to do the calculus ... A) what's is the value of what the difference between him and a downgraded replacement would be, B) what they can get for him now, and C) what they're likely to get for him next year as a rental.

If B is only about the same as or only marginally more than C, then the Ducks are better off getting more games out of him for another year, and moving him at the '26 TDL instead. Carrying his salary for an extra year while being near the cap floor anyway is not a factor, and not trading him now probably means one less year of retention. It's entirely possible, too, that as a rental with no additional year to take on and a higher cap, he might be more appealing to teams next year anyway.
 
Gibson at 50% retained & Dumoulin for a 1st, with some other picks and prospects? Maybe Henrique since he's not really earning that $3 million and Oilers can go after a younger, cheaper, faster option in Ryan Poehling?

No offense to California Closets, or Skinner's (possible) family and friends that frequently defend him on here and HF Oil...and Reddit, but it's time to take goaltending seriously or the Oilers are cooked in the playoffs. I know he has a nice moustache. I know he's from Edmonton. I know he's a nice guy. But we have two of the best players in the entire league and are backstopped by one of the worst starters in the entire league.
 
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The deciding factor will be if Gibson wants to stay or not IMO.

Mentally, he looks more locked-in than he has in 2-3 years and his play shows. Whether it's because he's decided he wants to stay or he's playing to improve his trade value remains to be seen.
 
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ZegrassyKnoll said:
The deciding factor will be if Gibson wants to stay or not IMO.

Mentally, he looks more locked-in than he has in 2-3 years and his play shows. Whether it's because he's decided he wants to stay or he's playing to improve his trade value remains to be seen.
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Not that it means much, but here in Edmonton we keep hearing that Gibson "would now" waive his NMC for the Oilers. It seems like might be his camp trying to put the word out, because it's an oddly specific thing to state. Previously when his named was mentioned I remember insiders saying he would not, adding further fuel to the fire (maybe, who knows).
 
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rockinghockey said:
Gibson is or getting a 1 round pick
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Goaltenders don't tend to get a ton in value in trades. Not always the case, but mostly true.

It's a weird thing in the modern NHL. Goalies are voodoo as the old saying goes, and teams don't trade a lot to get one because week to week and year to year you can't be sure of what you're getting.

Conversely if you have crap goaltending your team can't compete.

It's a weird time.
 
VeteranPresence said:
Not that it means much, but here in Edmonton we keep hearing that Gibson "would now" waive his NMC for the Oilers. It seems like might be his camp trying to put the word out, because it's an oddly specific thing to state. Previously when his named was mentioned I remember insiders saying he would not, adding further fuel to the fire (maybe, who knows).
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Any credible sources? Not hearing that in Anaheim.
 
TFHockey said:
Goaltenders don't tend to get a ton in value in trades. Not always the case, but mostly true.

It's a weird thing in the modern NHL. Goalies are voodoo as the old saying goes, and teams don't trade a lot to get one because week to week and year to year you can't be sure of what you're getting.

Conversely if you have crap goaltending your team can't compete.

It's a weird time.
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I think it's almost always been like that, because most goalies who are available aren't sure things. What is available are typically decent backups who MIGHT have more to offer as a starter, starters who have a spotty history (perhaps a playoff meltdown or two), formerly good goalies who have hit a downturn, and complete unprovens.

All of those possible solutions come with enough risk that you would hesitate to give up too much for. I would always avoid category 2. Groups 1 and 4, you'd have to really look closely at whatever limited sample size there is, and determine if there's more there (but usually there isn't). Gibson is in group 3, and that's always the toughest to judge.

And of course most contenders being up against the cap doesn't help. The perfect guy might become available, yet be impossible to work out capwise.
 
VeteranPresence said:
Pierre LeBrun in the NYT was one- link
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Thanks...I wouldn't put too much reliance on that article. First, it's from November and Gibson had barely recovered from his surgery then. Second, he has been lights out since he returned...whatever price LeBrun thought he was worth back then has gone up a lot. Third, I can't see Verbeek retaining on him. Fourth, Verbeek is under no obligation to trade him and his asking price is very high. And lastly, LeBrun said it is his "understanding" that Gibson would consider waiving for the Oilers...that is a pretty wishy-washy statement.

My current belief is that the Ducks won't move Gibson but if they do it will be on their terms and the price will be very high. As for Gibson himself, I sense a sea-change in his attitude this year and his play reflects that. I think he can see the light at the end of the tunnel with this organization. And trust me, living and raising a family near the ocean in south OC is really really hard to walk away from...especially for Edmonton (no offense intended but if you've ever been down here you would agree!).
 
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VeteranPresence said:
Not that it means much, but here in Edmonton we keep hearing ...
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Local guys trying to generate clicks/keep hope alive? (Tom already mentioned that the Pierre article is a few months old). Reading elsewhere you see that various teams are positive that within a very short time that they're getting Zegras for future considerations & a case of practice pucks... yeah, no. In almost all of those articles you could trade Gibson out for Z and they'd read the same ... and have just about as much credibility.

I really can't see Gibson going anywhere this year. Next year with (hopefully) a new coach & most everyone taking a step forward/getting to where they should be, the Ducks could be fairly dangerous. With one of the better goalie duos in the league it would be silly to break them up right as they're making a playoff push (other than for PV's big overpayment). Is anything possible, sure. However the Ducks are under no pressure to move him, actually need his salary to help reach the cap floor, and aren't going to take a typical goalie payment when there's no reason to. If I was PV I certainly wouldn't take a late 1st in a weak draft when he's keeping the team in games they really shouldn't be in.
 
AnInjuredJasonZucker said:
This seems terrifying. His numbers have been meh to abysmal for years now, and by eye, he just wasn't playing well.

His numbers are up this year, but with a pretty lax schedule. If Skinner is in the deal, Gibson would be the guy with no plan B.

Ducks fans - Is Gibson back to starter's form? Or is he a 1B and no more?
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If that is terrifying, what are SKinners #'s? Worse lol. Gibson is on a garbage team. Skinner is on a team at the top of the least HDC against, etc.

Give me Gibson all day

That is still an overpay from EDM though.
 
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I can actually see a Skinner for Gibson swap with picks to balance.

Skinner is younger and would fit with the ducks core better while Gibson is a vet and the Oilers are going for it now
 
CanadasTeam99 said:
If that is terrifying, what are SKinners #'s? Worse lol. Gibson is on a garbage team. Skinner is on a team at the top of the least HDC against, etc.

Give me Gibson all day

That is still an overpay from EDM though.
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It’s terrifying because this would be Edmonton’s big swing. If they don’t get it right, they’ve missed another chance for a cup. If “better than Skinner” is your criteria for a trade win then congrats. But I’d rather the team win 16 games in the post season.
 
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AnInjuredJasonZucker said:
It’s terrifying because this would be Edmonton’s big swing. If they don’t get it right, they’ve missed another chance for a cup. If “better than Skinner” is your criteria for a trade win then congrats. But I’d rather the team win 16 games in the post season.
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But do you think Skinner can win us 16 Games this year? He's imploding even more than last season, and his implosions cost us the 2023 Cup and almost lost us the Vancouver series (and did lose us that critical Game 3 of the Finals....Stu had an .826 and we lost by one goal). I mean Skinner was neck and neck with 4Giev for being the worst goalie in the league at one point this season. Stu's lows are f***ing terrifying.

They can play it safe and cheap by going for Nedeljkovic, who is playing better than Stu behind a much worse defense and already goalied us. Gibson is a big swing, but he's not the only one they can make, though he is the best bet we have and Anaheim does have two remaining retention spots.
 
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Gibson doesn't seem to do too poorly against top teams.

Shutout against Vegas and .906 against Vegas in losing effort, .900 in win against Winnipeg, .973 vs Tampa, .963 vs Dallas, there was that .880 performance vs Washington, but Stu was a .786 against them... His worst game was against Colorado (.864), but Skinner ended his last game against the Avs with a .750.

Skinner: .857 and .818 vs Toronto, .615 vs Winnipeg, .870 vs Dallas, Skinner plays well against Tampa and Vegas, and is mixed against LA.

And again, Skinner plays behind a much better defense.

Also, when it comes to GSAx for goalies who have played 20 or more games, Gibson is 7th. Skinner is 35th.

When it comes to GSAx per 60...Gibson is third in the entire league. Skinner is 35th.
 
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