Proposal: Anaheim-Edmonton

[Fourier]

Gibson is 5th in GSAx since the last post:

NHL Goalie Advanced Stats 2024-2025

NHL Goalie Analytics, Goals Saved Above Expected

moneypuck.com

Anaheim has a legitimate chance at making the playoffs with their tandem so he might not even be available anymore...

For the Ducks to make the playoffs they probably have to play .750+ hockey down the stretch and that still might not be enough. They are 5-4-1 in their last ten games.

 

[tomd]

At the start of the season Verbeek said he wanted the team to be playing “meaningful games” in March and they are poised to do that. Trading Gibson would be a big step back unless the return was just too good to pass up.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

FWIW, money puck recently released a new model for tracking playoff and lottery odds. They currently show the Ducks with a 6.5% chance of making playoffs, and a 5% chance of landing the first overall pick.

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2025 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Stanley Cup Odds, Playoff seeding, and Draft Lottery Odds

moneypuck.com

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

At the start of the season Verbeek said he wanted the team to be playing “meaningful games” in March and they are poised to do that. Trading Gibson would be a big step back unless the return was just too good to pass up.

Did they know Dostal was this good at that point?

 

[tomd]

Did they know Dostal was this good at that point?

Yes, I think they did since he had a pretty good season last year and a fantastic World Cup (or whatever they called it) this past summer. That said, I don't think they were comfortable that he could play 60 games and still hold up at this point. Between Dostal and Gibson, the Ducks are getting playoff goaltending every night.

 

[FiveTacos]

Yes, I think they did since he had a pretty good season last year and a fantastic World Cup (or whatever they called it) this past summer. That said, I don't think they were comfortable that he could play 60 games and still hold up at this point. Between Dostal and Gibson, the Ducks are getting playoff goaltending every night.

Some people seem to think that because it's a rebuilding team, then it really doesn't matter if your goalies (or everything else besides your young guys for that matter) are garbage some nights, since you aren't gonna win games anyway. But it's harder to preach system discipline to a young team if you can't count on your netminding. And truly reliable backups aren't as common/simple to acquire as some seem to think, or else no one would ever have a backup (or even short term starter) that they're frustrated by.

In trading Gibson they have to do the calculus ... A) what's is the value of what the difference between him and a downgraded replacement would be, B) what they can get for him now, and C) what they're likely to get for him next year as a rental.

If B is only about the same as or only marginally more than C, then the Ducks are better off getting more games out of him for another year, and moving him at the '26 TDL instead. Carrying his salary for an extra year while being near the cap floor anyway is not a factor, and not trading him now probably means one less year of retention. It's entirely possible, too, that as a rental with no additional year to take on and a higher cap, he might be more appealing to teams next year anyway.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Gibson at 50% retained & Dumoulin for a 1st, with some other picks and prospects? Maybe Henrique since he's not really earning that $3 million and Oilers can go after a younger, cheaper, faster option in Ryan Poehling?

No offense to California Closets, or Skinner's (possible) family and friends that frequently defend him on here and HF Oil...and Reddit, but it's time to take goaltending seriously or the Oilers are cooked in the playoffs. I know he has a nice moustache. I know he's from Edmonton. I know he's a nice guy. But we have two of the best players in the entire league and are backstopped by one of the worst starters in the entire league.

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

The deciding factor will be if Gibson wants to stay or not IMO.

Mentally, he looks more locked-in than he has in 2-3 years and his play shows. Whether it's because he's decided he wants to stay or he's playing to improve his trade value remains to be seen.

 

[rockinghockey]

Gibson is or getting a 1 round pick

 

[VeteranPresence]

The deciding factor will be if Gibson wants to stay or not IMO.

Mentally, he looks more locked-in than he has in 2-3 years and his play shows. Whether it's because he's decided he wants to stay or he's playing to improve his trade value remains to be seen.

Not that it means much, but here in Edmonton we keep hearing that Gibson "would now" waive his NMC for the Oilers. It seems like might be his camp trying to put the word out, because it's an oddly specific thing to state. Previously when his named was mentioned I remember insiders saying he would not, adding further fuel to the fire (maybe, who knows).

 

[TFHockey]

Gibson is or getting a 1 round pick

Goaltenders don't tend to get a ton in value in trades. Not always the case, but mostly true.

It's a weird thing in the modern NHL. Goalies are voodoo as the old saying goes, and teams don't trade a lot to get one because week to week and year to year you can't be sure of what you're getting.

Conversely if you have crap goaltending your team can't compete.

It's a weird time.

 

[tomd]

Not that it means much, but here in Edmonton we keep hearing that Gibson "would now" waive his NMC for the Oilers. It seems like might be his camp trying to put the word out, because it's an oddly specific thing to state. Previously when his named was mentioned I remember insiders saying he would not, adding further fuel to the fire (maybe, who knows).

Any credible sources? Not hearing that in Anaheim.

 

[VeteranPresence]

Any credible sources? Not hearing that in Anaheim.

Pierre LeBrun in the NYT was one- link

 

[FiveTacos]

Goaltenders don't tend to get a ton in value in trades. Not always the case, but mostly true.

It's a weird thing in the modern NHL. Goalies are voodoo as the old saying goes, and teams don't trade a lot to get one because week to week and year to year you can't be sure of what you're getting.

Conversely if you have crap goaltending your team can't compete.

It's a weird time.

I think it's almost always been like that, because most goalies who are available aren't sure things. What is available are typically decent backups who MIGHT have more to offer as a starter, starters who have a spotty history (perhaps a playoff meltdown or two), formerly good goalies who have hit a downturn, and complete unprovens.

All of those possible solutions come with enough risk that you would hesitate to give up too much for. I would always avoid category 2. Groups 1 and 4, you'd have to really look closely at whatever limited sample size there is, and determine if there's more there (but usually there isn't). Gibson is in group 3, and that's always the toughest to judge.

And of course most contenders being up against the cap doesn't help. The perfect guy might become available, yet be impossible to work out capwise.

 

[tomd]

Pierre LeBrun in the NYT was one- link

Thanks...I wouldn't put too much reliance on that article. First, it's from November and Gibson had barely recovered from his surgery then. Second, he has been lights out since he returned...whatever price LeBrun thought he was worth back then has gone up a lot. Third, I can't see Verbeek retaining on him. Fourth, Verbeek is under no obligation to trade him and his asking price is very high. And lastly, LeBrun said it is his "understanding" that Gibson would consider waiving for the Oilers...that is a pretty wishy-washy statement.

My current belief is that the Ducks won't move Gibson but if they do it will be on their terms and the price will be very high. As for Gibson himself, I sense a sea-change in his attitude this year and his play reflects that. I think he can see the light at the end of the tunnel with this organization. And trust me, living and raising a family near the ocean in south OC is really really hard to walk away from...especially for Edmonton (no offense intended but if you've ever been down here you would agree!).