Friedman: ANA - Leafs Montour

[StephenPeat]

What? You literally said he spent 2/3 of his ice time with either Matthews/Kapanen or Tavares/Marner. The link shows you he has spent about 18 % of his ES ice time with Matthews/Kapanen and 15 % with Tavares/Marner. Now you're suddenly looking at only the three most common combinations to come to that 57 % number which makes no sense whatsoever.

It makes no sense whatsoever to place the same weight on the roughly 10 lines on which he’s spent less than 5-7% of his TOI as you place on the three lines on which he’s spent over 15% of his time each, that shouldn’t really need to be said. Focusing on the three highest percentage line combinations which reflect a majority of his ice time is the simplest, most straightforward, most representative way to look at his line mates and filter negligible samples. Again it’s not rocket science.

P.S. Filtering his line combinations as you’re suggesting makes your argument look considerably worse as it means roughly 57% of his ES PTs were scored during the combined 33% of his TOI where he was on the ice with an All-Star Center.

 

[Martin Skoula]

For exactly the same reason that anyone else doesn't produce similar offensive output when surrounded by less capable complementary players and linemates. Its not rocket science. Johnsson is currently a 2nd-3rd line tweener and those types of players are one of the more common commodities in the league. Put him on any team other than the Leafs without above-average Center support and there's no question he DOESN'T put up the same numbers. It's GREAT that you think every player's numbers will magically hold or improve when put in worse situations, it's NOT very REALISTIC. Johnsson has spent considerable amounts of time playing with Matthews, Tavares, Kapanen, and Marner. Its not just DELUSIONAL to suggest he would put up similar numbers playing with inferior players it's IDIOTIC.

You understand how you can't hold the position that the Leafs are simultaneously this deep offensive powerhouse and at the same time are forced to play some garbage tweener with their best players right? Either Johnsson is a legitimate top-6 option on a deep offensive team or they're not actually that stacked and his stats aren't being boosted that much.

 

[4thline]

You understand how you can't hold the position that the Leafs are simultaneously this deep offensive powerhouse and at the same time are forced to play some garbage tweener with their best players right? Either Johnsson is a legitimate top-6 option on a deep offensive team or they're not actually that stacked and his stats aren't being boosted that much.

Schrodinger's Talent. It both exists and doesn't depending on which stage of the argument you're at.

Also completely neglects that that "tweeners" tend not to get 60+ points (pace) when playing with stars.

 

[DougGilmour93]

What about a 3way package deal?

To Anaheim: Kadri + Brown

To Carolina: Sprong + Timashov

To Toronto: Ferland + Montour


Anaheim trades Sprong and Montour for Kadri and Brown

Carolina trades Ferland for Sprong and Timashov

Tornonto trades Kadri, Brown and Timashov for Ferland and Montour


If Anaheim feels Manson is a more likely trade candidate than by all means the two of them can be swapped.

 

[Palio]

What are you talking about? Who's excluding his Top 6 play. Are you even paying attention. I'm suggesting that comparing him to other rookies is disingenuous exactly because of that Top 6 play. Most rookies don't get to play with stars, of course Johnsson's #s benefit from that. And this season he didn't earn anything, from nearly the earliest part of the season he played immediately on lines with Matthews/Marner/Tavares it's not too much of a stretch to say I could have 26 ES PTs in that situation.

Aaaaaand we’re done here. Not only is a 50 point pace in only 12:46 mins not impressive because he does it with one of Matthews/Tavares/Marner on the ice with him slightly over half of the 12:46 he plays per game, it’s also not a stretch to say the great StephenPeat of hfboards could do the same in that situation. Good lord.

 

[Liferleafer]

What about a 3way package deal?

To Anaheim: Kadri + Brown

To Carolina: Sprong + Timashov

To Toronto: Ferland + Montour


Anaheim trades Sprong and Montour for Kadri and Brown

Carolina trades Ferland for Sprong and Timashov

Tornonto trades Kadri, Brown and Timashov for Ferland and Montour


If Anaheim feels Manson is a more likely trade candidate than by all means the two of them can be swapped.

Dude, this garbage got locked 7 posts in when you made the thread....hoping to lock this on as well?

I will add this, before everyone does the typical "stupid Leafs fans...derp...derp", may i ask that you direct any and all vitriol directly at the person who proposed this mess, the rest of us had nothing to do with it.

 

[DougGilmour93]

Dude, this garbage got locked 7 posts in when you made the thread....hoping to lock this on as well?

I don’t feel it’s garbage.
It’s well thought out and open to suggestions or constructive criticism.

 

[bsu]

No thanks to anything on this thread.

 

[Mickey Marner]

For exactly the same reason that anyone else doesn't produce similar offensive output when surrounded by less capable complementary players and linemates. Its not rocket science. Johnsson is currently a 2nd-3rd line tweener and those types of players are one of the more common commodities in the league. Put him on any team other than the Leafs without above-average Center support and there's no question he DOESN'T put up the same numbers. It's GREAT that you think every player's numbers will magically hold or improve when put in worse situations, it's NOT very REALISTIC. Johnsson has spent considerable amounts of time playing with Matthews, Tavares, Kapanen, and Marner. Its not just DELUSIONAL to suggest he would put up similar numbers playing with inferior players it's IDIOTIC.

So far this season, Johnsson's two most common linemates are Par Lindholm & Connor Brown.

 

[Liferleafer]

I don’t feel it’s garbage.
It’s well thought out and open to suggestions or constructive criticism.

Your thread got locked within minutes...it's a landslide....lopsided win for the Leafs....it's garbage.

 

[StephenPeat]

You understand how you can't hold the position that the Leafs are simultaneously this deep offensive powerhouse and at the same time are forced to play some garbage tweener with their best players right? Either Johnsson is a legitimate top-6 option on a deep offensive team or they're not actually that stacked and his stats aren't being boosted that much.

Wow, that’s what (?) three poorly constructed straw man arguments in one post. Impressive. The Leafs are a Top Heavy deep offensive powerhouse. As a result tweeners (garbage or no) are playing with their best players. None of that means Johnson is a “legitimate” Top 6 option in other circumstances where he’s pretty clearly a passenger in the cherry circumstances he’s in currently. And obviously as a result of the combined effects of points 1 and 2 his stats are quite clearly being boosted (by how much is up for debate).

 

[StephenPeat]

So far this season, Johnsson's two most common linemates are Par Lindholm & Connor Brown.

And his six most common line mates are John Tavares, Mitch Marner, Austin Matthews, Kasperi Kapanen, Par Lindholm, and Connor Brown.

 

[DougGilmour93]

Your thread got locked within minutes...it's a landslide....lopsided win for the Leafs....it's garbage.

I respectfully disagree.

I dealt a great second line center (Kadri) for an top 4 RHD (Montour).
Then in a nutshell I dealt Brown and Timashov for UFA to be Ferland. 2 young cheap forwards for a rental.

 

[Liferleafer]

Wow, that’s what (?) three poorly constructed straw man arguments in one post. Impressive. The Leafs are a Top Heavy deep offensive powerhouse. As a result tweeners (garbage or no) are playing with their best players. None of that means Johnson is a “legitimate” Top 6 option in other circumstances where he’s pretty clearly a passenger in the cherry circumstances he’s in currently. And obviously as a result of the combined effects of points 1 and 2 his stats are quite clearly being boosted (by how much is up for debate).

I think Draisaitl's stats are boosted by playing with McDavid. See how stupid a statement can be? I know this is just crazy talk...but maybe...Johnsson is actually a good player?

 

[Liferleafer]

I respectfully disagree.

I dealt a great second line center (Kadri) for an top 4 RHD (Montour).
Then in a nutshell I dealt Brown and Timashov for UFA to be Ferland. 2 young cheap forwards for a rental.

Timoshov is nothing, and you actually gained by moving Brown's cap next season while acquiring a much better player in Ferland for this one. It's essentially Kadri for Montour+Ferland+Brown's cap savings next season. Like i said...landslide win for Toronto.

 

[4thline]

Who would ever have use for a player that gives you 1st line production when he plays with 1st line players

 

[StephenPeat]

I think Draisaitl's stats are boosted by playing with McDavid. See how stupid a statement can be? I know this is just crazy talk...but maybe...Johnsson is actually a good player?

Draisiatl’s stats ARE boosted by McDavid. What is your point?

 

[Liferleafer]

Draisiatl’s stats ARE boosted by McDavid. What is your point?

Annnddd....all credibility lost.

 

[Liferleafer]

Who would ever have use for a player that gives you 1st line production when he plays with 1st line players

Nah...you're missing it, he's only producing 1st line numbers because of those other 1st line players!! It's all a mirage!! Smoke and mirrors!!

 

[Martin Skoula]

Nah...you're missing it, he's only producing 1st line numbers because of those other 1st line players!! It's all a mirage!! Smoke and mirrors!!

That's why Hyman is PPG with more minutes all spent 100% with Marner/Tavares/Matthews!

 

[StephenPeat]

Who would ever have use for a player that gives you 1st line production when he plays with 1st line players

I wonder if every team has All-Star line mates to put with that player?

 

[StephenPeat]

Who would ever have use for a player that gives you 1st line production when he plays with 1st line players

I wonder if every team has All-Star line mates to put with that player?

 

[4thline]

Nah...you're missing it, he's only producing 1st line numbers because of those other 1st line players!! It's all a mirage!! Smoke and mirrors!!

Well to be fair, some of it is. He's not going to put up 60 points playing on your typical 3rd line with 3rd line players. But then again, not many players would. Just like most "tweeners" wouldn't pace 60 points playing on the 1st line. It's one of those profoundly silly arguments that's based on the premise that either the acquiring team has no good players for him to play with, or we assume that the coach refuses to play him with them for reasons.

 

[DougGilmour93]

Timoshov is nothing, and you actually gained by moving Brown's cap next season while acquiring a much better player in Ferland for this one. It's essentially Kadri for Montour+Ferland+Brown's cap savings next season. Like i said...landslide win for Toronto.

Wow.
Timashov, while he’s not a A level prospect he’s certainly in the B-C level. He’s having a decent season in the AHL.
You have Brown as a dump?
I think if that’s where you are our conversation is finished. Can’t have a repectful conversation with crazy.
So with that, I bow out.

 

[4thline]

I wonder if every team has All-Star line mates to put with that player?

Yup, Leafs have a complete monopoly on high end offensive players. Good point.