Friedman: ANA - Leafs Montour

[WhatTheDuck]

Ducks fans still overrating their D holy. They act like they have 4 top pairing D back there when in reality their defense is worse than Toronto's. I woudn't take a single D off their backend over Rielly or even Muzzin. Fowler and Gardiner are pretty damn close players. Manson is a nice piece but we just got Muzzin who is the same style of player.

I'm sure the Leafs would love to get some RD but they won't be paying some top pairing D price for over rated bums. This is Muzzin aprt 2 where Leaf fans were laughed at for saying Kapenen/Nylander were not moving and neither were Sandin/ Liljegren and people were like "LOL Leaf fans want to get without giving" and what happened? The "B" prospects people mocked returned him and now they are suddenly good.

Maybe you guys should listen to Leaf fans about their players now.. We've been a lot more correct over the past 5 years than this site has been in all predictions.

I could swear I've seen you in other threads whining about how people paint all Leafs fans with the same brush, extremely rich irony.

Anyway, you are trying to compare completely different situations. Muzzin was traded just over a year away from being a UFA. The Kings actually had a reason at this point to move him for picks and prospect type offers before he potentially walked. Montour has two more affordable years before he's still under RFA control. Anaheim has no motivation to sell off young cost controlled talent for picks and prospects.

Kings fans would have been justified in demanding core pieces for Muzzin while he still had multiple years of affordable term remaining - at that point he wouldn't have been available for anything less. It's common that fanbases fail to recalibrate their trade expectations when key players get down to the final year of their deals - much like when Leafs fans were constantly proposing one year of JVR in exchange for young cost controlled top 4 D.

 

[novon04]

What? It means he's played approximately 2/3 of his TOTAL TOI this season on a line with Marner/Tavares OR Matthews/Kapanen. I'm going to take a wild guess that more than 2/3 of his TOTAL ES PTs this season have come on either of those two lines. Are you sure you even watch the Leafs?

Your numbers are way off..

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

 

[Palio]

How many other rookies are playing on lines with Matthews, Marner, and Tavares (clearly not at the same time but you get the point)?

Are the Leafs the only team with skilled players? This somehow diminishes that he’s pacing for 50 points as a rookie while ONLY playing 12:42 per game (still waiting for you to provide some names matching this pace btw).

Also, since coming back from his concussion, he has 9 points in 8 games averaging under 11 minutes per game playing on the 3rd/4th line where none or Matthews, Marner, Tavares play. But sure, continue to diminsh what he’s doing while claiming it’s not that special and providing no proof

 

[StephenPeat]

Your numbers are way off..

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

Wow, so that guy doesn't watch the Leafs and you cant read a chart that you posted. Check those Top 3 Lines in that table accounting for the most significant chunk of Johnsson's TOI (~57%). As those are the most significant combinations let's keep our focus squarely there. Of that sample (accounting for the most sizable chunk of Johnsson's TOI), he's spent 57.68% (33.3%/57.73%) or approximately 2/3 of the bulk of his TOI with Kapanen/Matthews or Marner/Tavares. How exactly am I way off?

 

[Liferleafer]

I agree, but we should still be looking at all possible replacement scenarios.
Hainsey is gone this season via UFA
Zaitsev is an anchor we need to cut bait from.
Even if Liljegren makes a big step forward (and that's an if),
we still have one RHD to replace.

Oh i'm not arguing we need an upgrade....i just don't think we need to take a homerun swing.

 

[Liferleafer]

Wow, so that guy doesn't watch the Leafs and you cant read a chart that you posted. Check those Top 3 Lines in that table accounting for the most significant chunk of Johnsson's TOI (~57%). As those are the most significant combinations let's keep our focus squarely there. Of that sample (accounting for the most sizable chunk of Johnsson's TOI), he's spent 57.68% (33.3%/57.73%) or approximately 2/3 of the bulk of his TOI with Kapanen/Matthews or Marner/Tavares. How exactly am I way off?

These arguments are fun...."Johnsson sucks because he plays with good players!!".....or maybe, he's a good player and has worked his way up the lineup?

I mean i guess we can say Montour is only good because he's propped up by Lindholm over 62% of the time at even strength...29% of PP time with Lindholm...and 49% of PK time with Lindholm.

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

 

[StephenPeat]

Are the Leafs the only team with skilled players? This somehow diminishes that he’s pacing for 50 points as a rookie while ONLY playing 12:42 per game (still waiting for you to provide some names matching this pace btw).

Also, since coming back from his concussion, he has 9 points in 8 games averaging under 11 minutes per game playing on the 3rd/4th line where none or Matthews, Marner, Tavares play. But sure, continue to diminsh what he’s doing while claiming it’s not that special and providing no proof

Trying to name other players matching his pace is an apples-oranges comparison because outside of a few select teams with elite Offense (like Tampa as I suggested with Gourde) most of those rookies aren't playing with Marner/Matthews/Tavares. Let's not limit ourselves to a small sample size and lets also remove recency bias. Johnsson has 26ES PTs this season, 15 (57%) have come when he's on the ice with one of the aforementioned players, again tracking exactly as I said approximately 2/3 of his ES PTs. It's quite clear Johnsson is benefiting from playing with above-average linemates. I'm not trying to diminish what he's doing I'm providing the context you'd so conveniently like to ignore when suggesting he's somehow unique compared to other players who aren't in similar situations. I'd argue the only unique thing about Johnsson is exactly that, the situation he's been gifted.

 

[Liferleafer]

Trying to name other players matching his pace is an apples-oranges comparison because outside of a few select teams with elite Offense (like Tampa as I suggested with Gourde) most of those rookies aren't playing with Marner/Matthews/Tavares. Let's not limit ourselves to a small sample size and lets also remove recency bias. Johnsson has 23ES PTs this season, 13 (57%) have come when he's on the ice with one of the aforementioned players, again tracking exactly as I said approximately 2/3 of his ES PTs. It's quite clear Johnsson is benefiting from playing with above-average linemates. I'm not trying to diminish what he's doing I'm providing the context you'd so conveniently like to ignore when suggesting he's somehow unique compared to other players who aren't in similar situations. I'd argue the only unique thing about Johnsson is exactly that, the situation he's been gifted.

In other words...lets remove all the info that shows AJ as a productive player....that way it's easier to say he sucks. I also assume we're not allowed to use Montour's stats this season due to the Ducks sucking ballz this year?

 

[StephenPeat]

In other words...lets remove all the info that shows AJ as a productive player....that way it's easier to say he sucks. I also assume we're not allowed to use Montour's stats this season due to the Ducks sucking ballz this year?

I am literally using the most relevant SEASON-LONG sample size that excludes the contribution of the Leafs PP, which I assure you does not help your argument.

If you want to use an 8 Game sample size out of 50-odd games to demonstrate that a player is a "productive" player you certainly can, you'll look foolish for doing so, but no one can stop you. Sam Gagner once had an 8PT Game, man he was a "productive" player.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I could swear I've seen you in other threads whining about how people paint all Leafs fans with the same brush, extremely rich irony.

Anyway, you are trying to compare completely different situations. Muzzin was traded just over a year away from being a UFA. The Kings actually had a reason at this point to move him for picks and prospect type offers before he potentially walked. Montour has two more affordable years before he's still under RFA control. Anaheim has no motivation to sell off young cost controlled talent for picks and prospects.

Kings fans would have been justified in demanding core pieces for Muzzin while he still had multiple years of affordable term remaining - at that point he wouldn't have been available for anything less. It's common that fanbases fail to recalibrate their trade expectations when key players get down to the final year of their deals - much like when Leafs fans were constantly proposing one year of JVR in exchange for young cost controlled top 4 D.

If the leafs traded for Montour now he would have less term on his current contract than Muzzin did at the time of his trade.

Extremely rich irony eh lol...

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Can we just ban ducks and leaf threads.... they always go badly.

We get it everyone on leafs is untouchable... and everyone on anaheim would be lucky to get generational 4th liner brown for them

 

[Liferleafer]

I am literally using the most relevant SEASON-LONG sample size that excludes the contribution of the Leafs PP, which I assure you does not help your argument.

Try using common sense. You are evaluating a rookie....rookies generally start lower in the line up with less minutes to gauge development. This particular rookie showed good enough development to earn more ice time on the top 6....and he's producing there. Sure, it helps your argument to exclude his top 6 play....but it's disingenuous. and why exclude PP time? He's on it because he's earned the right to be on it....or do other teams not get powerplays?

 

[WhatTheDuck]

If the leafs traded for Montour now he would have less term on his current contract than Muzzin did at the time of his trade.

Extremely rich irony eh lol...

RFA vs UFA

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Trying to name other players matching his pace is an apples-oranges comparison because outside of a few select teams with elite Offense (like Tampa as I suggested with Gourde) most of those rookies aren't playing with Marner/Matthews/Tavares. Let's not limit ourselves to a small sample size and lets also remove recency bias. Johnsson has 26ES PTs this season, 15 (57%) have come when he's on the ice with one of the aforementioned players, again tracking exactly as I said approximately 2/3 of his ES PTs. It's quite clear Johnsson is benefiting from playing with above-average linemates. I'm not trying to diminish what he's doing I'm providing the context you'd so conveniently like to ignore when suggesting he's somehow unique compared to other players who aren't in similar situations. I'd argue the only unique thing about Johnsson is exactly that, the situation he's been gifted.

I'm a little confused here, are you trying to say 57% is close to 2/3 (66.66%)?

Would be more accurate to say 1/2 of his points have come on a line with Matthews/JT.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

RFA vs UFA, do I really need to explain the difference?

Lol obviously not but you said Muzzin had just over a year of term left on his contract while Montour has 2 years....

Do you not get what is wrong with that considering their contracts expire at the exact same time LOL

 

[Kamiccolo]

We aren't trying to replace Rielly and Muzzin.
We're trying to replace Hainsey and Zaitsev.
Which they have an abundance of D better than the latter 2.

At the asking price of a Rielly / Muzzin replacement lol

 

[Kamiccolo]

Can we just ban ducks and leaf threads.... they always go badly.

We get it everyone on leafs is untouchable... and everyone on anaheim would be lucky to get generational 4th liner brown for them

straw man
Dictionary result for straw man

/ˌstrô ˈman/
noun
noun: strawman

1. 1.
   an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument.
   "her familiar procedure of creating a straw man by exaggerating their approach"

 

[StephenPeat]

Try using common sense. You are evaluating a rookie....rookies generally start lower in the line up with less minutes to gauge development. This particular rookie showed good enough development to earn more ice time on the top 6....and he's producing there. Sure, it helps your argument to exclude his top 6 play....but it's disingenuous. and why exclude PP time? He's on it because he's earned the right to be on it....or do other teams not get powerplays?

What are you talking about? Who's excluding his Top 6 play. Are you even paying attention. I'm suggesting that comparing him to other rookies is disingenuous exactly because of that Top 6 play. Most rookies don't get to play with stars, of course Johnsson's #s benefit from that. And this season he didn't earn anything, from nearly the earliest part of the season he played immediately on lines with Matthews/Marner/Tavares it's not too much of a stretch to say I could have 26 ES PTs in that situation.

 

[StephenPeat]

I'm a little confused here, are you trying to say 57% is close to 2/3 (66.66%)?

Would be more accurate to say 1/2 of his points have come on a line with Matthews/JT.

Let's meet in the middle; Between 1/2 and 2/3 of his ES PTs have come on a line with an ELITE Center.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

What are you talking about? Who's excluding his Top 6 play......And this season he didn't earn anything, from nearly the earliest part of the season he played immediately on lines with Matthews/Marner/Tavares it's not too much of a stretch to say I could have 26 ES PTs in that situation.

And there goes all your credibility... LOL get a grip man

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Let's meet in the middle; Between 1/2 and 2/3 of his ES PTs have come on a line with an ELITE Center.

Why not just stay with 57%? You know the actual number

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Lol obviously not but you said Muzzin had just over a year of term left on his contract while Montour has 2 years....

Do you not get what is wrong with that considering their contracts expire at the exact same time LOL

If you read the post, that is completely beside the point. The Kings had reason to sell Muzzin for picks and prospects - he is an impending UFA. There's no motivation for the Ducks to sell Montour for that type of return, he is still under RFA control after this contract.

My having misspoke about the duration of his current deal, really doesn't affect the point I'm making from the Ducks perspective, nor is it an example of irony.

 

[darkwingduck]

No reason to move montour at his lowest value while he still has plenty of term just to have the pleasure of doing business with Toronto.

A new coach and new system, literally anything but carlyle, should benefit the defense.

 

[Liferleafer]

What are you talking about? Who's excluding his Top 6 play. Are you even paying attention. I'm suggesting that comparing him to other rookies is disingenuous exactly because of that Top 6 play. Most rookies don't get to play with stars, of course Johnsson's #s benefit from that. And this season he didn't earn anything, from nearly the earliest part of the season he played immediately on lines with Matthews/Marner/Tavares it's not too much of a stretch to say I could have 26 ES PTs in that situation.

Huh....that's strange, because in a lot of GDTs on the Leafs board, we were continually screaming about moving Johnsson up from the 3rd/4th lines....but what would I know from watching every game? Those pretty charts tell the whole story i guess.

And maybe most rookies don't earn the right to move up the lineup....i guess that only happens in Toronto.

 

[StephenPeat]

Why not just stay with 57%? You know the actual number

Because it's trivial and doesn't matter in the context of the point. Flatly, a substantial percentage (more than 50%) of his ES and PP PTs come on a line with an All-Star caliber Center. Good Enough for you?