GDT: All things training camp

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cneely

Registered User
Jan 6, 2005
10,195
1,272
How is flipping coins a comparison with playing hockey? The nicest thing I can say about that comparison is that it's a false equivalent.


Yes, I would like plenty of 80 point players please. And you're making it sound like the Jets didn't finish 4th overall last year or something
So, you’re in favour of putting out players who give up more chances than they produce? I don’t think that’s a good way to win.
 

Buffdog

Registered User
Feb 13, 2019
7,576
18,388
So, you’re in favour of putting out players who give up more chances than they produce? I don’t think that’s a good way to win.
K, we'll ice a team full of Appletons. He outchances his opponents

I'll take a 1C that outscores his opponents at 5v5 and contributes on the PP, you take 12 Appletons
 

cneely

Registered User
Jan 6, 2005
10,195
1,272
K, we'll ice a team full of Appletons. He outchances his opponents

I'll take a 1C that outscores his opponents at 5v5 and contributes on the PP, you take 12 Appletons
Your number 1 center doesn’t outscore his opponents. That’s the point.

Of course there is more to it than that. Usage. Quality of competition. Pdo.

I’m definitely not an expert. But I can tell you when your best players get consistently out chanced, it’s not a good thing.
 

bumblebeeman

Registered User
Mar 16, 2016
2,018
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So, you’re in favour of putting out players who give up more chances than they produce? I don’t think that’s a good way to win.

I mean the Jets win a lot, they've made the playoffs 6 of the last 7 years. They clearly wouldn't be better off without Scheif or Connor, but I don't think you are saying that really? I don't think they'd be better off with them playing less either. Maybe if they were on different lines it could be great, but it's not a big deal if they play together imo
 

Buffdog

Registered User
Feb 13, 2019
7,576
18,388
Your number 1 center doesn’t outscore his opponents. That’s the point.

Of course there is more to it than that. Usage. Quality of competition. Pdo.

I’m definitely not an expert. But I can tell you when your best players get consistently out chanced, it’s not a good thing.
4th overall is a good thing

Your best players getting outchanced means less when it sets the rest of the team up to outchance their opponents

Last season Schief had a GF% of 56.73% at 5v5. He was on the oce for 59 goals for and for 45 against

I'm definitely not an expert either. But I'd say that he outscored his opponents

Now... if you'd prefer to put more stock into stats of the hypothetical variety vs the actual variety... well, that's another convo altogether
 

cneely

Registered User
Jan 6, 2005
10,195
1,272
4th overall is a good thing

Your best players getting outchanced means less when it sets the rest of the team up to outchance their opponents

Last season Schief had a GF% of 56.73% at 5v5. He was on the oce for 59 goals for and for 45 against

I'm definitely not an expert either. But I'd say that he outscored his opponents

Now... if you'd prefer to put more stock into stats of the hypothetical variety vs the actual variety... well, that's another convo altogether

So you don’t consider Pdo?

The jets are a good team. Mostly propped up by goaltending.
I mean the Jets win a lot, they've made the playoffs 6 of the last 7 years. They clearly wouldn't be better off without Scheif or Connor, but I don't think you are saying that really? I don't think they'd be better off with them playing less either. Maybe if they were on different lines it could be great, but it's not a big deal if they play together imo

The jets benefit a lot from pdo with a goalie like Helly.

4th overall is a good thing

Your best players getting outchanced means less when it sets the rest of the team up to outchance their opponents

Last season Schief had a GF% of 56.73% at 5v5. He was on the oce for 59 goals for and for 45 against

I'm definitely not an expert either. But I'd say that he outscored his opponents

Now... if you'd prefer to put more stock into stats of the hypothetical variety vs the actual variety... well, that's another convo altogether
Sustainability.

If we flipped coins for an hour at 55-45 you might beat me, but over time you wouldn’t.
 

surixon

Registered User
Jul 12, 2003
50,422
73,589
Winnipeg
4th overall is a good thing

Your best players getting outchanced means less when it sets the rest of the team up to outchance their opponents

Last season Schief had a GF% of 56.73% at 5v5. He was on the oce for 59 goals for and for 45 against

I'm definitely not an expert either. But I'd say that he outscored his opponents

Now... if you'd prefer to put more stock into stats of the hypothetical variety vs the actual variety... well, that's another convo altogether

He was even in goal differential with KC and really good with Ehlers.

We need both Mark and KC but I think they do better when separated at 5 on 5.

I'd still keep them together on the pp, 3 on 3 or late when we need a goal.

I think we will be in tough to get the same kind of outscoring from lines 2 and 3 this year so we will need the top line to perform and our special teams to really pick up the slack.
 

Buffdog

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Feb 13, 2019
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So you don’t consider Pdo?

The jets are a good team. Mostly propped up by goaltending.


The jets benefit a lot from pdo with a goalie like Helly.


Sustainability.

If we flipped coins for an hour at 55-45 you might beat me, but over time you wouldn’t.
"Propped up by helle"

Absurd statement. We have one of the best goalies on the planet. He's part of the team, just like mcdavid or matthews

Not all winners will look the same. We can't win by relying on a 32 year old schief to outchance better, younger players. We NEED Helle to make up the difference there, which he did last year

The flaw to your entire premise is that you remove the goaltender from the matrix with which you decide how good a team is... instead of understanding that he's the most important variable in the equation

He was even in goal differential with KC and really good with Ehlers.

We need both Mark and KC but I think they do better when separated at 5 on 5.

I'd still keep them together on the pp, 3 on 3 or late when we need a goal.

I think we will be in tough to get the same kind of outscoring from lines 2 and 3 this year so we will need the top line to perform and our special teams to really pick up the slack.
What was ehlers goal differential both with and away from schief?

And more importantly, is the cumulative goal differential of the top two lines better with schief and ehlers together on one line, or split up on two different lines?
 

surixon

Registered User
Jul 12, 2003
50,422
73,589
Winnipeg
"Propped up by helle"

Absurd statement. We have one of the best goalies on the planet. He's part of the team, just like mcdavid or matthews

Not all winners will look the same. We can't win by relying on a 32 year old schief to outchance better, younger players. We NEED Helle to make up the difference there, which he did last year

The flaw to your entire premise is that you remove the goaltender from the matrix with which you decide how good a team is... instead of understanding that he's the most important variable in the equation


What was ehlers goal differential both with and away from schief?

And more importantly, is the cumulative goal differential of the top two lines better with schief and ehlers together on one line, or split up on two different lines?

He was plus 14 with and plus 15 without.

The two main lines that I rember being our second line with Fly on line one were:

Iafallo, Perfetti and Namestinkov who had a plus 5 goal differential.

KC, Perfetti and Monohan who had a plus 5 goal differential.

So the second line kept contributing.

I personally am much more concerned about the third line. They had by far their best outscoring year.
 

Bob E

Registered User
Aug 20, 2011
8,148
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Winnerpeg
He was plus 14 with and plus 15 without.

The two main lines that I rember being our second line with Fly on line one were:

Iafallo, Perfetti and Namestinkov who had a plus 5 goal differential.

KC, Perfetti and Monohan who had a plus 5 goal differential.

So the second line kept contributing.

I personally am much more concerned about the third line. They had by far their best outscoring year.
In fairness to the 3rd line, it was the first full season with Nino who is a perennial 20g/20a/40pt player. He’s going to get his points and Lowry and Appleton contributed as they typically do. If Appleton fades, then a Iafallo or Baron might be able to continue producing on that line.
 
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