All Purpose Trade/Roster Building Thread XIII - the 23 deadline approaches

[Boom Boom Apathy]

It still very much claims that. I have no idea how it thought Aho was on the Habs, though.

Thinking more about the Sebastian Aho blunder that ChatGPT made, and I know I should probably shut up about it, LOL, but it's just super interesting to me.

It routinely gets obscure information wrong. I have a ton more examples now.

I think it's because you guys are misunderstanding what ChatGPT is doing in Aho's case. It isn't looking at past datasets, it's predicting the future.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I don’t think Larkin is available and find him to be a pipe dream. Detroit will overpay to keep him.

If goal scoring is our issue then i don’t think there are many centers available who change that for us. Horvat is gone.

There are a few wingers available who are goal scorers. More likely to be our avenue for improvement.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don’t think Larkin is available and find him to be a pipe dream. Detroit will overpay to keep him.

If goal scoring is our issue then i don’t think there are many centers available who change that for us. Horvat is gone.

There are a few wingers available who are goal scorers. More likely to be our avenue for improvement.

Yeah, I agree. If Larkin leaves Detroit (and I don't think he will), it's because of money, and I don't see Carolina being the front office that wants to pay him so much to be an incentive to leave Detroit.

What's interesting, is reports are that Yzerman has set a price that he won't go over, and it's reportedly below what Larkin could get on the open market. He's not been willing to budge and is ok playing the "long game". Nobody bats an eye at that. When the Canes front office does that, it's because we're cheap.

In reality, I think many teams are realizing that paying market prices for players is problematic long term.

 

[SvechneJerk]

Yeah, I agree. If Larkin leaves Detroit (and I don't think he will), it's because of money, and I don't see Carolina being the front office that wants to pay him so much to be an incentive to leave Detroit.

What's interesting, is reports are that Yzerman has set a price that he won't go over, and it's reportedly below what Larkin could get on the open market. He's not been willing to budge and is ok playing the "long game". Nobody bats an eye at that. When the Canes front office does that, it's because we're cheap.

In reality, I think many teams are realizing that paying market prices for players is problematic long term.

There might be a glitch in the Matrix if Larkin ends up going to FA cause "Yzerman So Cheap" & we're the ones that end up signing him.

 

[Svechhammer]

I know we're all in on Meier. But I just had a scary thought. We're in huge trouble down the middle if Aho walks as a UFA in the 2024 offseason. Which I think is a possibility. We saw how his agent handled the last contract negations. I have to imagine he will hit the open market and we'll get into a bidding war to keep him here.

The Wings are on the fence about letting Larkin go, but I'd be throwing the same package deal to him, that we're offering Meier. If we can acquire Larkin, he would provide a nice insurance if Aho does decide to leave us. Obviously would have to get Larkin locked up to a contract too, but let's get a deal done like the Isles did with Horvat. Also freaking Aho / Larkin as our 1 & 2C would be absolutely deadly.

You're right, but I also think Necas gets a shot at C next year, so we should be ok long term.

 

[Negan4Coach]

* * *


Yes, but there's a difference between logical inference and pattern-based inference. When they say "inference" they mean Bayesian inference. When humans say "inference" we tend to mean logical inference.

Large Language Models can do pattern-based inference at truly mind-boggling scale because they have been built using massively parallelized processes going through unsupervised "fill in the missing word" cloze-style exercises trillions of times. But they fail at actual logical inference in shockingly basic cases. Because again: the LLM's entire goal is to predict *the next plausible word* given its many, many, *many* inputs. Plausibility, not accuracy. And since ChatGPT's remit is to respond, it will always respond. It won't say "gee, that's tricky, let me think about it." It will come up with the most plausible string of words and hand them over, even if they are "hallucinations" (which is an actual term used to describe wildly nonsensical output, and which your Blue Velvet example would probably be an example of.)

(If you ever played with the GPT-3 stuff that predated ChatGPT, you would have seen actual settings to allow you to play with confidence values. Interesting that ChatGPT doesn't expose those settings.)

Note also that ChatGPT never notices its errors until the user calls attention to them; that calling out constitutes a new input that ChatGPT must then evaluate, and I suspect that if the user says "you are wrong about fact X" then ChatGPT must treat that input with 100% confidence.

It's also notable how strongly the quality of output you get from a ChatGPT session depends on which data you choose to pull from it first. I suspect that if you ask it a series of factual questions, and if you accept those responses as valid in subsequent conversation, its confidence in those new inputs goes way, way up and so they are weighted accordingly in follow-up questions in ways that they would not otherwise be weighted.

The consistency of certain responses about ChatGPT's limitations also implies, to me, a separate model/process that basically involves acknowledging its own error bars and explaining its internal mechanisms to users who are continually surprised by the rudimentary mistakes that it makes. You see the same answers over and over again: "I apologize for any confusion" is something that ChatGPT probably says a million times a day at this point.

Anyway. Truly fascinating shit.

Awesome explanation. That makes a lot of sense. Do you think that if it weren't required to respond in real-time- like if a nebulous question could be worked on for 30 seconds or so- that the responses would be more accurate?

Have a lot of things to talk about with our NLP team. For some reason, only me and the Channel Manager have been trying to push the boundaries of this thing.

It is still interesting that the one thing that breaks it is asking how a pack of gay French communists were able to seize control of the levers of power in the US.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

of course i make such a statement about the centers and then I gander at G/60 rates.

Of the top 100 in PP rates that would be available:
Meier is 2nd
Toews is 20th
*Trimmed down to at least 50 minutes of ice time

top 100 in 5v5 rates that would be available:
Meier is 38th
Henrique 40th
*trimmed down to at least 300 minutes of ice time

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I know this will not go over well but there is likely to be some good and young distressed assets available at the draft that may be worth saving our assets for:

PLD
Debrincat
Lafreniere (i know the Rangers wont make him available but Rangers have little space and a bunch of good RFAs)

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I know this will not go over well but there is likely to be some good and young distressed assets available at the draft that may be worth saving our assets for:

PLD
Debrincat
Lafreniere (i know the Rangers wont make him available but Rangers have little space and a bunch of good RFAs)

Is PLD distressed only because of contract stuff/fears he doesn't want to stay in WPG? Or WPG's cap situation?

He's got 22G, 52P in 52 Games this year so it's not a performance issue.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Is PLD distressed only because of contract stuff/fears he doesn't want to stay in WPG? Or WPG's cap situation?

He's got 22G, 52P in 52 Games this year so it's not a performance issue.

Distressed because of him not wanting to stay in Winnipeg.

 

[SlavinAway]

Wait; I thought PLD was basically a Hab like Aho already?

 

[SvechneJerk]

Distressed because of him not wanting to stay in Winnipeg.

Distressed because he only wants to play in Montreal.



Edit: @SlavinAway beat me to the joke.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Wait; I thought PLD was basically a Hab like Aho already?

which would make the acquisition that much sweeter. no but really. If there is a team that is competitive enough and has enough cap space to convince him not to be a Canadien, its us.

 

[Svechhammer]

I know this will not go over well but there is likely to be some good and young distressed assets available at the draft that may be worth saving our assets for:

PLD
Debrincat
Lafreniere (i know the Rangers wont make him available but Rangers have little space and a bunch of good RFAs)

Still have plenty of interest in Debrincat. One year distressed who could rebound very nicely next year? Sure

 

[A Star is Burns]

Dubios is a great player, but the end of his Columbus tenure was hard to watch. I wonder how Brindy feels about that kinda crap. Perhaps he wouldn't care since it's over and probably wouldn't happen with us. But it's always a possibility if he becomes unhappy for whatever reason.

DeBrincat would be a lot of fun if he comes available.

 

[MinJaBen]

We need to creat a ChatGM and train it on the HFBoards Trade board using the first post of all the threads with the "Proposal" tag. And specifically weight Bernmeister in the training of the dataset.



Then let it loose on Twitter....

 

[Svechhammer]

We need to creat a ChatGM and train it on the HFBoards Trade board using the first post of all the threads with the "Proposal" tag. And specifically weight Bernmeister in the training of the dataset.



Then let it loose on Twitter....

The hockey community is not prepared for such shenanigans. You might break the matrix by doing that

 

[Identity404]

@Navin R Slavin

Curious what your thoughts are on Project Wisdom, given your background.

 

[Stickpucker]

Imagine how happy PK would be if Larkin left the Wings and came to Carolina.

 

[MinJaBen]

Don throws a wrench into the whole league and uses our cap space to trade for Karlsson at the deadline.


Which of our members blows a blood vessel first?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Don throws a wrench into the whole league and uses our cap space to trade for Karlsson at the deadline.


Which of our members blows a blood vessel first?

i would

 

[Svechhammer]

Don throws a wrench into the whole league and uses our cap space to trade for Karlsson at the deadline.


Which of our members blows a blood vessel first?

The rage would hit us all like that one scene in Kingsmen

 

[bleedgreen]

Don throws a wrench into the whole league and uses our cap space to trade for Karlsson at the deadline.


Which of our members blows a blood vessel first?

Lol I thinking about this watching Sharks highlights last night. We tend to do the unexpected move….so who’s unexpected? Karlsson!

It’s a sneaky good move that makes too much sense ainec…..

 

[MinJaBen]

Lol I thinking about this watching Sharks highlights last night. We tend to do the unexpected move….so who’s unexpected? Karlsson!

It’s a sneaky good move that makes too much sense ainec…..

I'm tempted to go all Bernmeiester and throw a proposal for both Meier and Karlsson at the trade board.



But I don't want to ruin my new keyboard, so I'll pass.

 

[bleedgreen]

I'm tempted to go all Bernmeiester and throw a proposal for both Meier and Karlsson at the trade board.



But I don't want to ruin my new keyboard, so I'll pass.

Yup….package deal. Karlsson at 50% retained. We already have a relationship with Grier from the Burns trade. A first, Drury, Heimosalmi…..maybe Koko. Just keep stacking prospects from the bottom of the list in classic hf fashion.