All Purpose Trade/Roster Building Thread XII - The UFA frenzy aftermath

[SlavinAway]

Those numbers make me laugh. It's like demand curves aren't a thing in his world. Good luck with those.

Those are based off of actual contracts this past season. The market values that were listed for those positions were all significantly higher.

 

[MinJaBen]

Did those numbers come from Waddell?

Dom at the Athletic.....oh, hmmmm, maybe.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

As miserly as some folks think that our FO is at the top end of the pay scale, it can't be denied that it has led to some incredibly deep lineups for us. You can't fill the 3rd and 4th lines with experience and production if you give all of your cap to the stars in your lineup like Toronto does.

 

[Svechhammer]

As miserly as some folks think that our FO is at the top end of the pay scale, it can't be denied that it has led to some incredibly deep lineups for us. You can't fill the 3rd and 4th lines with experience and production if you give all of your cap to the stars in your lineup like Toronto does.

Agreed

But at the same time you do need high end talent to win the Cup, and you are going to really struggle to get any high end talent if you aren't willing to pay for them. For the record, I don't think Hamilton is the kind of player we should have broken the bank for and I agreed with letting him go, but when it comes to top end scoring to put on our top offensive line, I think we're pissing into the wind if we think we can get one without paying big for him.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Agreed

But at the same time you do need high end talent to win the Cup, and you are going to really struggle to get any high end talent if you aren't willing to pay for them. For the record, I don't think Hamilton is the kind of player we should have broken the bank for and I agreed with letting him go, but when it comes to top end scoring to put on our top offensive line, I think we're pissing into the wind if we think we can get one without paying big for him.

But the thing is that Carolina does pay for high-end talent. They gave Svech that huge 8 year deal. Kotkaniemi got 8 years, too, at least because they think that he will be that kind of 2C one day. Jarvis will almost certainly get that treatment, too, when that time comes, as will Aho, most likely. If Scott Morrow pans out, he very well could also be an 8 year candidate.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Agreed

But at the same time you do need high end talent to win the Cup, and you are going to really struggle to get any high end talent if you aren't willing to pay for them. For the record, I don't think Hamilton is the kind of player we should have broken the bank for and I agreed with letting him go, but when it comes to top end scoring to put on our top offensive line, I think we're pissing into the wind if we think we can get one without paying big for him.

Agree with this, but looking around the league, the vast majority of teams that are contending for the Cup are doing so with almost entirely homegrown talent at the top, not making big splashy trades or signings for it. Of course there are a few exceptions (Panarin, Tavares although that’s not looking great right now), but the highly paid players on the Tampas and Colorados of the world are primarily homegrown (Stamkos/Point/Hedman/Kuch/Vasy/Palat/etc., Mackinnon/Landy/Raantanen/Makar/etc.)

I think your point is a salient one, but maybe one that’s more relevant when it comes time to pay Aho, Slavin, and Teravainen and we’re deciding whether or not to keep them. Another big question is whether the stars we have plus the up and comers (Svech, Necas, Jarvis, KK) end up turning into the type of high-end group that matches these contenders.

 

[NotOpie]

I think the coming season is pivotal to this team.

I believe this too....not necessarily from a "dire" perspective, but from a continued tone-setting perspective. I, for one, am of the mind that the GMBC has a plan, mostly knows what they are doing, and can and do pivot when situations change. But they also keep an eye to the future. I want another cup (I was there for the 1st one), but I equally want to be ongoing, long-term contenders. Many of the moves discussed here seem to me to continue to push that same agenda. Very few don't....I remain excited and, again, think tomorrow is going to be crazy.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Agree with this, but looking around the league, the vast majority of teams that are contending for the Cup are doing so with almost entirely homegrown talent at the top, not making big splashy trades or signings for it. Of course there are a few exceptions (Panarin, Tavares although that’s not looking great right now), but the highly paid players on the Tampas and Colorados of the world are primarily homegrown (Stamkos/Point/Hedman/Kuch/Vasy/Palat/etc., Mackinnon/Landy/Raantanen/Makar/etc.)

I think your point is a salient one, but maybe one that’s more relevant when it comes time to pay Aho, Slavin, and Teravainen and we’re deciding whether or not to keep them. Another big question is whether the stars we have plus the up and comers (Svech, Necas, Jarvis, KK) end up turning into the type of high-end group that matches these contenders.

I don't think that Aho and Slavin will leave. Those guys will stick around as veterans, IMO. Teravainen/Skjei/Pesce may well be more interchangeable, especially because you never know about which of your numerous farm hands actually breaks out in 2-3 years.

 

[Svechhammer]

Agree with this, but looking around the league, the vast majority of teams that are contending for the Cup are doing so with almost entirely homegrown talent at the top, not making big splashy trades or signings for it. Of course there are a few exceptions (Panarin, Tavares although that’s not looking great right now), but the highly paid players on the Tampas and Colorados of the world are primarily homegrown (Stamkos/Point/Hedman/Kuch/Vasy/Palat/etc., Mackinnon/Landy/Raantanen/Makar/etc.)

I think your point is a salient one, but maybe one that’s more relevant when it comes time to pay Aho, Slavin, and Teravainen and we’re deciding whether or not to keep them. Another big question is whether the stars we have plus the up and comers (Svech, Necas, Jarvis, KK) end up turning into the type of high-end group that matches these contenders.

At the same time, we are also in a spot where we are loaded with futures. We have a AHL program that has won back to back Calder Cups, we have a glut of draft picks and prospects, but the fact of the matter is that we just don't have enough roster spots for them all. We can afford to swing big while throwing quality prospects (pretty much anyone not Kochetkov, Morrow or Drury should be considered) into a trade like candy. And given we're a cap team that would be looking for a roster improvement, we should be able to throw the guy whom we acquire replaces into a trade as well. And then pay big when their contract comes for renewal.

If you ask me, that's probably the one missing piece to getting us to where we want to be.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Agreed

But at the same time you do need high end talent to win the Cup, and you are going to really struggle to get any high end talent if you aren't willing to pay for them. For the record, I don't think Hamilton is the kind of player we should have broken the bank for and I agreed with letting him go, but when it comes to top end scoring to put on our top offensive line, I think we're pissing into the wind if we think we can get one without paying big for him.

But most of the recent teams with high end talent that win the cup have drafted that talent.

Kane, Toews, Keith - 3 cups
Crosby, Malkin, Letang - 3 cups
Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Vasilevsky - 2 cups
Ovechkin, Kuznetzov, Backstrom, Carlsson - 1 cup
MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanen, Landeskog - 1 cup
Kopitar, Doughty - 2 cups

Sure, many teams have added to those players via trade/ufa with guys like Justin Williams, Kadri, Oshie, Kessel, etc..., but their true high end talent came via draft.

STL is probably the exception as they got ROR, Schenn, Perron (3rd time around in STL), via trade/ufa, although they did draft Pietrangelo and Tarasenko.

EDIT: @Anton Dubinchuk beat me to it.

 

[Svechhammer]

But most of the recent teams with high end talent that win the cup have drafted that talent.

Kane, Toews, Keith - 3 cups
Crosby, Malkin, Letang - 3 cups
Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Vasilevsky - 2 cups
Ovechkin, Kuznetzov, Backstrom, Carlsson - 1 cup
MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanen, Landeskog - 1 cup
Kopitar, Doughty - 2 cups

Sure, many teams have added to those players via trade/ufa with guys like Justin Williams, Kadri, Oshie, Kessel, etc..., but their true high end talent came via draft.

STL is probably the exception as they got ROR, Schenn, Perron (3rd time around in STL), via trade/ufa, although they did draft Pietrangelo and Tarasenko.

EDIT: @Anton Dubinchuk beat me to it.

Unless we hit the jackpot and get one of those hidden superstars in the late 1st and later, we're not going to be in a position to grab one of those kind of guys. Our most realistic chance to get someone like that is to collect as many prospects and picks as we can and then go big with a trade, at least in my opinion.

And I think we're at or near the point where that's not just a realistic option for us, but something we should seriously consider if not outright do.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

At the same time, we are also in a spot where we are loaded with futures. We have a AHL program that has won back to back Calder Cups, we have a glut of draft picks and prospects, but the fact of the matter is that we just don't have enough roster spots for them all. We can afford to swing big while throwing quality prospects (pretty much anyone not Kochetkov, Morrow or Drury should be considered) into a trade like candy. And given we're a cap team that would be looking for a roster improvement, we should be able to throw the guy whom we acquire replaces into a trade as well. And then pay big when their contract comes for renewal.

If you ask me, that's probably the one missing piece to getting us to where we want to be.

While technically true, let's not overplay the significance of that in the bold:

1) The Checker's team that won it in 2018-2019 has basically one guy really in common with the Wolves team, and that's Poturalski, and he's not exactly a future. The rest of the leading scorers/top prospects are no longer in the org, or are with the Canes. After Poturalski, the leading scorers on that checker's team were:

Saarela, Necas, Carrick, Geekie, Bean, Gauthier, Kuokkanen, Schilkey, Roy, Patrick Brown, McKeown. Other than Necas, none of those guys are still in the organization.

2) The Wolves team was a veteran team. The leading scorers: Poturalsk (27 YO at start of season), Noesen(28), CJ Smith (26), Drury (21), Leivo (28), Gust (27), Keane (22).

Other than Drury and Keane (who is an RFA), and Kochetkov, those are all journeymen veterans who aren't even under contract with Carolina next season. And nobody wants to move Drury or Kochetkov.

I agree with the rest of what you are saying though, we have a lot of draft and prospect capital so now might be a good time to use it, just don't think bringing up the back to back calder cups means anything in regards to that.

 

[NotOpie]

We are loaded with futures for sure....and, yes, futures are just that....all uncertainly and potential. With that said, I believe we'll continue to see a couple of those guys integrated into the big club's line up each year over the next few years. We all think Drury and potentially Chatfield will be those type of guys this upcoming season. Maybe we see guys like Seeley and Ponomarev next season....and on and on....

We currently have 22 contract slots open. Figure we'll always keep a couple in reserve for trade and such. We'll use 7 to 9 of those slots on the big club which leaves in excess of 10 for Chicago. It will be interesting to see who gets contracts over the next few weeks.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

For those that watched a lot of the Wolves this year, how much potential does Keane have to crack the line-up this year in a bottom pairing role? Or is he still not ready?

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I’d prefer not to see a stacked on paper 4th line ever again. It was a big disappointment in 2022 that doesn’t get talked about enough. When healthy, it cost a little under $9 mil with Necas and a little over with Domi. Kotkaniemi, a proxy for it, was only on the ice for 2 GF in 14 playoff games.

 

[MinJaBen]

For those that watched a lot of the Wolves this year, how much potential does Keane have to crack the line-up this year in a bottom pairing role? Or is he still not ready?

He's Hayden Fleury ready. By that I mean that no matter what his actual readiness is, the front office will sign some vet for that position anyway.

 

[ndp]

I’d prefer not to see a stacked on paper 4th line ever again. It was a big disappointment in 2022 that doesn’t get talked about enough. When healthy, it cost a little under $9 mil with Necas and a little over with Domi. Kotkaniemi, a proxy for it, was only on the ice for 2 GF in 14 playoff games.

I can’t remember who posted it but I believe both TB and COL iced sub $3M 4th lines in the finals. This is the way. If this team has proven anything it’s that top end talent can steamroll depth come playoff time.

But I also think a large chunk of that top end talent needs to be either homegrown or acquired via trade already signed to market or below market value. Seems to me that big ticket $$$ UFA’s just never seem to work out in the long run.

 

[MadeUpName]

Capfriendly Armchair Roster:

FORWARDS (13)
Seth Jarvis ($894,167) - Sebastian Aho ($8,460,250) - Teuvo Teräväinen ($5,400,000)
Andrei Svechnikov ($7,750,000) - Jesperi Kotkaniemi ($4,820,000) - Claude Giroux ($7,828,000)
Conor Garland ($4,950,000) - Jordan Staal ($6,000,000)- Jesper Fast ($2,000,000)
Steven Lorentz ($850,000) - Jack Drury ($925,000)- Jordan Martinook ($1,800,000)
Jamieson Rees ($839,167)


DEFENSE (7)
Jaccob Slavin ($5,300,000) - Jeff Petry ($3,125,000)
Brady Skjei ($5,250,000)- Brett Pesce ($4,025,000)
Brendan Smith ($800,000) - Nikita Zadorov ($3,800,000)
Jalen Chatfield ($762,500)

GOALTENDER (2)
Frederik Andersen ($4,500,000)
Antti Raanta ($2,000,000)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 22
Salary Cap: $82,500,000
Bonus Overages: $112,500
Cap Hit: $82,191,584
Cap Space: $308,416

Signed Giroux, Zadorov and Smith
Trades:
1) Conor Garland for Ethan Bear + 2023 1st + 2023 3rd (CAR)
2) Jeffy Petry (50% retained) + MTL 2nd for Martin Necas
3) 7th round pick for Jake Gardiner + 2023 2nd (CAR) + Dominik Bokk

 

[ndp]

I also get the feeling that the FO views their “window” a little differently than most of us do. Maybe they’re looking at sliding in and taking a big shot once TB is on the downswing, even COL is going to look a lot different on paper this season.

What teams out there are in the same stages of development as the Hurricanes? NYR, TOR?

DET, NJ are two teams that I feel are doing the right thing and are going to be on the upswing soon, CAR needs to stay out in front of those teams while building and tweaking to compete with the current and more soon to be contenders.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I can’t remember who posted it but I believe both TB and COL iced sub $3M 4th lines in the finals. This is the way. If this team has proven anything it’s that top end talent can steamroll depth come playoff time.

But I also think a large chunk of that top end talent needs to be either homegrown or acquired via trade already signed to market or below market value. Seems to me that big ticket $$$ UFA’s just never seem to work out in the long run.

That was me! I guess I’m harping on this point now.

Just throwing stones at the Leafs in this case didn’t seem fair. They overspend (?) on players that haven’t gotten it done in crunch time. This team just got almost nothing from the players that cap efficiency allows a team to ice.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

He's Hayden Fleury ready. By that I mean that no matter what his actual readiness is, the front office will sign some vet for that position anyway.

In fairness, Seattle had their same view of Fleury as well.

 

[Unsustainable]

We just need 1 game breaking forward. Someone ever team complains about scoring on them.

 

[NotOpie]

Capfriendly Armchair Roster:

FORWARDS (13)
Seth Jarvis ($894,167) - Sebastian Aho ($8,460,250) - Teuvo Teräväinen ($5,400,000)
Andrei Svechnikov ($7,750,000) - Jesperi Kotkaniemi ($4,820,000) - Claude Giroux ($7,828,000)
Conor Garland ($4,950,000) - Jordan Staal ($6,000,000)- Jesper Fast ($2,000,000)
Steven Lorentz ($850,000) - Jack Drury ($925,000)- Jordan Martinook ($1,800,000)
Jamieson Rees ($839,167)


DEFENSE (7)
Jaccob Slavin ($5,300,000) - Jeff Petry ($3,125,000)
Brady Skjei ($5,250,000)- Brett Pesce ($4,025,000)
Brendan Smith ($800,000) - Nikita Zadorov ($3,800,000)
Jalen Chatfield ($762,500)

GOALTENDER (2)
Frederik Andersen ($4,500,000)
Antti Raanta ($2,000,000)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 22
Salary Cap: $82,500,000
Bonus Overages: $112,500
Cap Hit: $82,191,584
Cap Space: $308,416

Signed Giroux, Zadorov and Smith
Trades:
1) Conor Garland for Ethan Bear + 2023 1st + 2023 3rd (CAR)
2) Jeffy Petry (50% retained) + MTL 2nd for Martin Necas
3) 7th round pick for Jake Gardiner + 2023 2nd (CAR) + Dominik Bokk

I just don't think that we'll trade the 2023 1st. If we do, it would be a TDL deal, IMO.

Again, 2023 draft is apparently both outstanding at the top and very deep.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Kane is supposed to put in his trade request tomorrow.

It’s believed his first choice is the rangers.

 

[spockBokk]

Thought about Burns and Petry a bit more on the 5hr drive back from Pigeon Forge…

Anyway, I hope they go no where near those 2, even if they could end up unloading Gardiner as part of the deal. I’d much rather they trade for Barrie and sign a a 3rd pair babysitter for him.

Ideally, they’d sign Klingberg, but Id be surprised if that happens.