All purpose trade/roster building thread part 12

[Chrispy]

Yes, it basically says that 65% of his starts are quality starts, and about 15% of the time he steals a game (or at least plays like he would). The chart does not have any metric about non quality starts, but logically if he has more quality starts than any other goalie, but his save% is only league average, his other starts need to be bad. Only other option would be that he faces more high danger shots than any other goalie in the league, but just from the eye test I wouldn't say that's true (also would be crazy given our D-core). Unfortunately I don't have the numbers for non-quality starts.

Crazy but not far off according to Natural Stat Trick.

Carolina was third-worst in the NHL (ahead of WAS and DET) in High Danger Goals Against / 60, 23rd in HD Chances against / 60. 2nd in the league in HD Chances For / 60, so it's a choice of aggressive playstyle that leads to those chances.

 

[DougieSmash]

I agree with those AAV's. $8M is a reasonable expectation and I think $8.5M is the max we will go. 5 years is probably the max the FO would like to go also. Do you think Dougie will ask for 7 years though?

Peraonally I believe he will take discount to stay here but let's see what we will offer.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I'd wait and see on Trochek. 2-3 years ago he was an absolute offensive force and he was probably our 3rd best forward these playoffs after he had the time off to recover with the covid shutdown. I can easily see him back at that level especially as Necas keeps developing. Just need to find him someone on the LW that can be a physical presence without being an offensive black hole.

Yeah, this board seems pretty down on Trochek but I see a ton of potential for him to be our version of a Krejci type contributor. 2Cs and 3Cs are going to disappoint sometimes, almost by definition. But even in context of some rough games he has showed enough puck skill and defensive presence that I see him as part of the solution, not the problem.

 

[bleedgreen]

Skjei didn't really have great "analytics" though. I'm not really sure why exactly they targeted him, but he's not bad either. Seems like a decent middle pairing puck rusher type with some edge. I'm ok with keeping him over Gardiner, but Fleury might be making his case to play alongside Peace next season.

I think he was a stylistic fit with a good contract. I do think it’s a good contract. Francis made great moves with Slavin and Pesce, we knew those were steals back then. Of course with time that’s amplified. Skjei’s ironically is like Hanifin’s in that neither are bad. They are market. Both can handle second pair duties, and quality of that play is affected by partners to some extent and neither will ever be perfect.

Skjei can skate like the wind and get the puck out of the zone. I guarantee our hockey dorks identified him as someone who would get us out of our zone quickly by passing or skating. A good transition guy like our core guys. That’s our style. He’s signed for years at a previous market value which we definitely like, that’s become our style too. He’s in his prime with room to grow. We like that a lot.

As for the bad defensive play....I don’t think we care. Is this player just like Jake pre injury? We want the transition more than we want the defense. It’s the only explanation of the Slavin/Dougie pairing in the first place. Those two play like crap in their end. It’s like the Moneyball scene where all Pitt cares about is getting on base and doesn’t really care how. We don’t really care about playing D, we care about getting the puck out as quick as we can as often as we can. To me that explains why we’ve looked like a scrambly team defensively the entire time since the new regime despite the presence of many solid dmen.

Skjei fits the plan. The moves we do often count in faith. That Dougie and Skjei will grow with a young team that has big holes available for them to plug into. Jake and Trochek being the players they were before injury. These are all maligned players we think were mismanaged or misused and even if they’re imperfect they can fit our style.

 

[MinJaBen]

Only other option would be that he faces more high danger shots than any other goalie in the league, but just from the eye test I wouldn't say that's true (also would be crazy given our D-core).

I've seen some statistics that suggest this is the problem with our goalies. Our core is pretty good at overall shot suppression, but the shots we do give up tend to be the bad kind.

 

[Chrispy]

I think he was a stylistic fit with a good contract. I do think it’s a good contract. Francis made great moves with Slavin and Pesce, we knew those were steals back then. Of course with time that’s amplified. Skjei’s ironically is like Hanifin’s in that neither are bad. They are market. Both can handle second pair duties, and quality of that play is affected by partners to some extent and neither will ever be perfect.

Skjei can skate like the wind and get the puck out of the zone. I guarantee our hockey dorks identified him as someone who would get us out of our zone quickly by passing or skating. A good transition guy like our core guys. That’s our style. He’s signed for years at a previous market value which we definitely like, that’s become our style too. He’s in his prime with room to grow. We like that a lot.

As for the bad defensive play....I don’t think we care. Is this player just like Jake pre injury? We want the transition more than we want the defense. It’s the only explanation of the Slavin/Dougie pairing in the first place. Those two play like crap in their end. It’s like the Moneyball scene where all Pitt cares about is getting on base and doesn’t really care how. We don’t really care about playing D, we care about getting the puck out as quick as we can as often as we can. To me that explains why we’ve looked like a scrambly team defensively the entire time since the new regime despite the presence of many solid dmen.

Skjei fits the plan. The moves we do often count in faith. That Dougie and Skjei will grow with a young team that has big holes available for them to plug into. Jake and Trochek being the players they were before injury. These are all maligned players we think were mismanaged or misused and even if they’re imperfect they can fit our style.

Now that you say it, I can hear someone in the room yelling "It doesn't matter how tight you are on your man once the puck is out of the zone!"

 

[MinJaBen]

I agree with those AAV's. $8M is a reasonable expectation and I think $8.5M is the max we will go. 5 years is probably the max the FO would like to go also. Do you think Dougie will ask for 7 years though?

No.


He'll ask for the max allowable 8 years. I think the double dip contracts like Aho and Matthews fought for and got won't look as attractive as long term stability does given what happened with COVID this year. Also, given his age, I can't imagine that a five year contract and then another one in his early-thirties pays as well as if he goes max term now and then a "retirement" contract in his mid-thirties after that.

 

[bleedgreen]

Yeah, this board seems pretty down on Trochek but I see a ton of potential for him to be our version of a Krejci type contributor. 2Cs and 3Cs are going to disappoint sometimes, almost by definition. But even in context of some rough games he has showed enough puck skill and defensive presence that I see him as part of the solution, not the problem.

Trochek is pretty much perfect minus the production. I can handle this level of snake bitten for awhile. He’s dangling guys and creating his own chances in the playoffs, as compared to forcing plays trying to fit in with Nachos.

I hope the adjustments we made after Svech got hurt and Necas got demoted stick to some extent. I said last week I loved McGinn and Foegele with Staal and I feel the same way now. We don’t count on offense from either, playing with skill players doesn’t seem to help either guy produce. Staal doesn’t hold them back and they both forecheck better playing with each other. They fed off each other I thought. New third permanently please.

Even if Williams comes back, because Willy like many before him has his offense dragged down with Staal. Let him play with skill guys if he plays. I liked the Trochek/Dzingle/Williams line. Trochek definitely seemed to like it and immediately start playing like himself. If Williams comes back I’d like to see more of something like that or even put Williams with the cherubs. He wouldn’t hold them back imo and Svech would probably be fine with Trochek.

 

[Chrispy]

I've seen some statistics that suggest this is the problem with our goalies. Our core is pretty good at overall shot suppression, but the shots we do give up tend to be the bad kind.

And according to the numbers above, Mrazek and Reimer are below average in saving HD chances.

I limited the goalie list of HDSV% to >=10 games played last season. Mrazek came in 37th (.824), Reimer was 51st (.800)

Interesting notes: Lehner was right behind Mrazek at 38. Andersen was 47. #1 in the league at .894? Jake Allen. Corey Crawford was #6 (.864.) So it's also important to note the difference between #6 and #38 was 0.07, or about .75 saves per game of high danger chances at the rate Carolina gives them up.

Considering these are high danger chances, that's more than I was expecting the difference to be.

 

[MinJaBen]

Would any of you be willing to move the 13th overall to Columbus for either Korpisalo or Merzlikins? They both looked fantastic last year, both are still young guys (26 years), and both still have two years left on their contracts before becoming UFA. While I think Columbus would want to keep both, they likely lose one in the expansion draft.

 

[Chrispy]

Would any of you be willing to move the 13th overall to Columbus for either Korpisalo or Merzlikins? They both looked fantastic last year, both are still young guys (26 years), and both still have two years left on their contracts before becoming UFA. While I think Columbus would want to keep both, they likely lose one in the expansion draft.

I don't think I'd do the first. This is where I'd move Fleury or Bean for a goalie. We're back in that limbo where you can't extend the goalie before or right after the trade, but they also aren't signed long-term.

 

[MinJaBen]

I don't think I'd do the first. This is where I'd move Fleury or Bean for a goalie. We're back in that limbo where you can't extend the goalie before or right after the trade, but they also aren't signed long-term.

I doubt you can move either of those two to Columbus for a goalie. Defense isn't the problem that they need to solve in Columbus.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Would any of you be willing to move the 13th overall to Columbus for either Korpisalo or Merzlikins? They both looked fantastic last year, both are still young guys (26 years), and both still have two years left on their contracts before becoming UFA. While I think Columbus would want to keep both, they likely lose one in the expansion draft.

Goalies dont have that much value.

if we were desperate for goalie help, maybe you say Ill swap you a goalie and 1sts. That will be the difference in talent level. Tbh 13th-21st OA is about another 1st rounder so that may be a reach.

I would rather give Bean to Vancouver for a shot at Demko being a starter than give up 13OA.

 

[DougieSmash]

Would any of you be willing to move the 13th overall to Columbus for either Korpisalo or Merzlikins? They both looked fantastic last year, both are still young guys (26 years), and both still have two years left on their contracts before becoming UFA. While I think Columbus would want to keep both, they likely lose one in the expansion draft.

Not a chance. Such a steep price for unproven goalie that is part of the best D system in the NHL. It's big risk to trade such a high pick for two years of a goalie, especially in the division.

 

[Justshootmore]

Crazy but not far off according to Natural Stat Trick.

Carolina was third-worst in the NHL (ahead of WAS and DET) in High Danger Goals Against / 60, 23rd in HD Chances against / 60. 2nd in the league in HD Chances For / 60, so it's a choice of aggressive playstyle that leads to those chances.

Then maybe a goalie is not the solution, and any goalie would look bad in our system. Maybe we need to have a different conversation altogether. Maybe the solution to our goalie problem is shaking up the D-core and have some changes in coaching (which does not mean we should get rid of Rod, but maybe he needs to change his style).

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I'd be surprised if any non-elite goalie had notable value this Summer given the volume and quality of options that may be available.

Plus, this team needs to tread carefully when it comes to systems. Carolina doesn't play that structured game that they've had success behind. Another Darling would be an even bigger disaster.

 

[Chrispy]

Then maybe a goalie is not the solution, and any goalie would look bad in our system. Maybe we need to have a different conversation altogether. Maybe the solution to our goalie problem is shaking up the D-core and have some changes in coaching (which does not mean we should get rid of Rod, but maybe he needs to change his style).

Or do you roll the dice on another short-term goalie and move Reimer?
Reimer for Allen?
Sign Crawford, move Reimer?

Both Allen and Crawford have issues of concern (consistency, injury and age) but both have shown pretty good hot streaks.

 

[DaveG]

I've seen some statistics that suggest this is the problem with our goalies. Our core is pretty good at overall shot suppression, but the shots we do give up tend to be the bad kind.

Yeah that also definitely seems to pass the eye test to me. Our defense is among the best of not the best at preventing transition chances because literally everyone (minus TVR and Eddy) is at least above average if not plus level at skating. But we struggle in stopping the type of greasy net front goals that physical teams feast on because we rely on breaking up passing lanes with our sticks in the defensive zone, not in muscling guys out from in front of the net. So the result is we give up what seems like a metric shit ton of net front rebound goals or, when the other team can get a pass through (which is easier on the PP and would help explain why the Bruins rape us there since that's their mo offensively) they get a complete gimmie that even I would be able to capitalize on from time to time.

 

[Justshootmore]

Or do you roll the dice on another short-term goalie and move Reimer?
Reimer for Allen?
Sign Crawford, move Reimer?

Both Allen and Crawford have issues of concern (consistency, injury and age) but both have shown pretty good hot streaks.

I'll leave that to the guys who are more knowledgeable and probably have even better numbers. I am just saying, if we give up a lot of high danger chances it might be easier to allow less high danger chances than finding a goalie who saves all high danger chances.

If you have a crack in your window you can fix it with tape, and you can get stronger tape if it gets worse, but at some point you might want to get to the real issue and just change the window.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

If stick checking and breaking up passes is our game then a Brodin-Trocheck deal may be the way to go. He is a shot suppressor. no point blank shots if they arent getting through.

 

[The Stranger]

Early this season, in the discussion about Brindy and Peters, didn't you argue that the roster was clearly better than the 17-18 team? (ie..before the trades; albeit a piece of that was in goal and drafting svech). or am I thinking of someone else?

Yeah, that's accurate. I believe the 18-19 roster was superior to the 17-18 roster. It got some healthy push-back here (you labeled the opinion both dumb and lazy).

I cited, the addition of Svech via the draft, the removal of Darling from the roster, swapping Rask for Nino, and adding CdH via free agency. The opinion had nothing to do with the CGY trade.

 

[bleedgreen]

Would any of you be willing to move the 13th overall to Columbus for either Korpisalo or Merzlikins? They both looked fantastic last year, both are still young guys (26 years), and both still have two years left on their contracts before becoming UFA. While I think Columbus would want to keep both, they likely lose one in the expansion draft.

Nope. That 13th pick is going to be a pretty good prospect. Goalies aren’t that expensive. I don’t believe either of those two are automatically better than what we have with consistency and to me that makes it a hell no to using a first.

 

[bleedgreen]

Yeah, that's accurate. I believe the 18-19 roster was superior to the 17-18 roster. It got some healthy push-back here (you labeled the opinion both dumb and lazy).

I cited, the addition of Svech via the draft, the removal of Darling from the roster, swapping Rask for Nino, and adding CdH via free agency. The opinion had nothing to do with the CGY trade.

I think last years roster was better, but more importantly just had better chemistry and backbone.

The growth of Svech is the big takeaway from this year.

Moving forward we have to learn from last off season. Rod coaches grinders best I think, and adding skill didn’t do him many favors. I don’t know that Rod and the Borg are on the same page for what we want sometimes. I think they need to bridge that gap a bit this off season.

 

[Ole Gil]

Yeah that also definitely seems to pass the eye test to me. Our defense is among the best of not the best at preventing transition chances because literally everyone (minus TVR and Eddy) is at least above average if not plus level at skating. But we struggle in stopping the type of greasy net front goals that physical teams feast on because we rely on breaking up passing lanes with our sticks in the defensive zone, not in muscling guys out from in front of the net. So the result is we give up what seems like a metric shit ton of net front rebound goals or, what the other team can get a pass through (which is easier on the PP and would help explain why the Bruins rape us there since that's their mo offensively) they get a complete gimmie that even I would be able to capitalize on from time to time.

The best players on the best team in the league are going to be tough to slow down no matter what you do. But the whole "High pressure, and make them make 3 perfect passes to beat us" thing does not look as good against teams that can make 3 perfect passes on a regular basis.

When I look around the league, I think the list of teams able to beat the Canes pressure consistently is Boston.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Last years roster had a different identity. Smack you in the mouth.

Hits: 2018-2019 Martinook 199, CdH 187, Ferland 182, Dougie 160, Faulk 156, McGinn 137, Foegele 126, Svech 123, Staal 122, etc
2019-2020 Staal: 149, Edmundson 118, Svech 116, McGinn 80, Martinook 72, Necas 65, Foegele 63

we went up 0.2 goals per game than last year.
PIMs are relatively close as well
Our Goals Against went up 0.22 per game (so no gain on goals scored and goals against)

not sure if we decided passing and puck movement was the best way out of the Metro or we decided to try something new.

We were on the path to have the same points as last year, both teams had a 1.2 points per game average. Our strength of schedule took a minor dip this year but our SRS went up by 7 positions to 6th. In the end the change didnt change our fortunes just stuck us with guys we want to move (Gardiner, Dzingel, etc)