All purpose trade/roster building thread part 12

[GoldiFox]

How funny would it be if they go out and trade for Faulk at $6.5M cause Dougie wants too much $$$...

Faulk's deal is heinous. There is a reason Blues fans desperately want to deal Faulk away before he has even played one minute on that contract. $6.5 million x 7 years with a full NTC. Even if Dougie won't re-sign I'd rather have the assets from a Hamilton rental trade than Faulk with that term and $$.

 

[spockBokk]

Screw it, all kinds of crazy below:

Jake Gardiner to the Blues for Faulk, 1-1

Dougie Hamilton and Mrazek to the Leafs for Nylander and Andersen

 

[The Podium]

They aren't really good trading partners. If you believe that Toronto needs to get rid of Andersen to become a SC contender then why would you believe that Carolina should add Andersen to become a SC contender?

The Toronto proposals I have seen include the #13 overall or pieces like Pesce going to Toronto. That just isn't happening for Andersen or Nylander respectively. The only potential deal I see between the two would be something like Kapanen for Bean/Fleury. Or potentially if Hamilton won't re-sign in Carolina then a deal like Hamilton for Nylander. But even then Nylander/Kapanen aren't ideal fits for what the Canes need given their current roster.

Leafs need to get rid of Andersen because they dont have the cap to re-sign him after next season and should start capitalizing on expiring assets. They need to go younger and cheaper and find someone to tandem with Campbell. Andersen is most definitely a 1G and a pretty sizeable upgrade on what Carolina currently has. He has his faults, but Carolina plays strong enough defensively that hell succeed.

Both those Kapanen and Nylander deals that you proposed are exactly in the realm of what we are looking for. Also considering your LW depth I dont see how Nylander isnt exactly what you are looking for?

 

[MinJaBen]

Well, they must keep him.

If I were laying odds right now, I'd say Dougie gets Faulked this October. They will lowball him, negotiate, and then move him. While Dundon has shown some willingness to pay for roster guys, he also said when he bought the team that it had to work in the framework of team revenues. He seemed to stick to his word when we saw the building filling up again while we were winning. But with a very strong possibility that the gate revenues will be extremely suppressed this year, I expect the cost cutting we are seeing everywhere else in the organization will reach to the roster. And Dougie is the most obvious player to see that as he will be a UFA coming off of a great season.

 

[GoldiFox]

Leafs need to get rid of Andersen because they dont have the cap to re-sign him after next season and should start capitalizing on expiring assets. They need to go younger and cheaper and find someone to tandem with Campbell. Andersen is most definitely a 1G and a pretty sizeable upgrade on what Carolina currently has. He has his faults, but Carolina plays strong enough defensively that hell succeed.

Both those Kapanen and Nylander deals that you proposed are exactly in the realm of what we are looking for. Also considering your LW depth I dont see how Nylander isnt exactly what you are looking for?

Does Nylander play LW? I've only ever seen him at RW or Center. Necas and Teravainen both play RW. Svechnikov can play both sides. The Canes need a top-6 LW. They had Jordan Martinook playing LW on their top line for the last two games against Boston. Niederreiter, Foegele, and Dzingle are their other options which are all inadequate.

The Canes have a history now of trading away guys who need new deals while acquiring pieces with term left. I'm not sure they would be interested in dealing for Andersen and signing him right away or dealing for Andersen and letting him ride out his contract. They would probably prefer to find a 2-3 year deal with on of the UFA starters instead. In any case that #13 is going nowhere in an Andersen deal. Goalie's without term don't have that kind of value.

 

[MinJaBen]

That's fine. I certainly didn't see a group of forwards and defensemen that played well played well enough to beat Boston. Not saying goaltending was great, but they were outplaying us more than not.

This I agree with. To say any one part of the team was not a problem, when the whole team besides Fleury under performed, was my biggest issue. They just plain got beat by a better team. The whole team has issues.

 

[The Podium]

Does Nylander play LW? I've only ever seen him at RW or Center. Necas and Teravainen both play RW. Svechnikov can play both sides. The Canes need a top-6 LW. They had Jordan Martinook playing LW on their top line for the last two games against Boston. Niederreiter, Foegele, and Dzingle are their other options which are all inadequate.

The Canes have a history now of trading away guys who need new deals while acquiring pieces with term left. I'm not sure they would be interested in dealing for Andersen and signing him right away or dealing for Andersen and letting him ride out his contract. They would probably prefer to find a 2-3 year deal with on of the UFA starters instead. In any case that #13 is going nowhere in an Andersen deal. Goalie's without term don't have that kind of value.

Yup Nylander has played all 3 forward positions and I personally thought LW was his strongest.

I would absolutely not expect to receive the 13th overall for Andersen

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

An organization can only race to the bottom to a certain extent. Trading Hamilton and signing say Barrie to replace him (Skjei/Slavin/Gardiner can't be the primary offensive threat from the blueline) makes the team cheaper perhaps, but worse. That strategy has already been a bust. I don't think they can afford to compound that.

 

[RibFrabcus]

Hamilton >>>> Faulk
Lindholm >> Trocheck
Skjei >= Hanifin

In my estimation.

 

[tarheelhockey]

If I were laying odds right now, I'd say Dougie gets Faulked this October. They will lowball him, negotiate, and then move him. While Dundon has shown some willingness to pay for roster guys, he also said when he bought the team that it had to work in the framework of team revenues. He seemed to stick to his word when we saw the building filling up again while we were winning. But with a very strong possibility that the gate revenues will be extremely suppressed this year, I expect the cost cutting we are seeing everywhere else in the organization will reach to the roster. And Dougie is the most obvious player to see that as he will be a UFA coming off of a great season.

I'm not saying you're wrong because we all know how contract negotiations work around here.

But I don't see the point in continuously turning over elite players. It's one thing to replace Faulk with Hamilton and say "we got our guy" and build around that. It's another thing entirely to trade Faulk, then trade Hamilton, and just continuously be taking the risk that the next guy can fill that gap. That's playing games with the core of what is currently a pretty good team but could very quickly become a lottery candidate due to a lack of talent.

 

[dogbazinho]

This team would have looked better with Kadri in it but yeah would we have given up Pesce for him? Not sure that was even the ask from us. It feels like our plethora of D almost hurts us in returns with Toronto since they constantly ask for near our best.

 

[Canes]

This team would have looked better with Kadri in it but yeah would we have given up Pesce for him? Not sure that was even the ask from us. It feels like our plethora of D almost hurts us in returns with Toronto since they constantly ask for near our best.

Would Kadri have waived to come here? He apparently used his limited NTC to nix a deal to Calgary.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Go back pre CGY trade and load that saved game.

Then just coast without all the shuffle and extend guys.

The Canes would have Hanifin instead of Skjei, Lindy instead of Tro, and Faulk instead of Dougie. Plus they still have guys like Roy that could slot in the lower 6. We can get into the weeds with differences in picks from Fox and Skjei trades...but at a high level they really just swapped those three positions.

For all the maneuvering, has the roster actually been improved? I know there's a strong preference for Dougie over Faulk on this board...but I think the team misses Faulks all-around game including the physical edge he brings...he played very well with both CdH and Pesce last year...and I would bet against a Hamilton extension given the Canes negotiation MO and the team's current salary cap situation.

Edit: Side-note, I went onto Capgfriendly yesterday to look at what the cap hit would be under this scenario...they'd have ~$9M in space...plenty for a Svech extension. Capfriendly, what a fantastic site with no adds...anyone know who owns it and how it's funded...is it just a labor of love?

Early this season, in the discussion about Brindy and Peters, didn't you argue that the roster was clearly better than the 17-18 team? (ie..before the trades; albeit a piece of that was in goal and drafting svech). or am I thinking of someone else?

Edit: I get what you are saying though, but there are a lot of dominos. For instance, had they not traded Hanifin for Dougie, I doubt they sign CDH last year either, but we still would have lucked into drafting Svech and still moved on from Darling. It's fun to discuss though.

If they don't sign Dougie, then that trade is rather miserable and I have my doubts they are going to pay him, but we'll see.

 

[DougieSmash]

If I were laying odds right now, I'd say Dougie gets Faulked this October. They will lowball him, negotiate, and then move him. While Dundon has shown some willingness to pay for roster guys, he also said when he bought the team that it had to work in the framework of team revenues. He seemed to stick to his word when we saw the building filling up again while we were winning. But with a very strong possibility that the gate revenues will be extremely suppressed this year, I expect the cost cutting we are seeing everywhere else in the organization will reach to the roster. And Dougie is the most obvious player to see that as he will be a UFA coming off of a great season.

It will happen but that's bad strategy to build your team. We have nice core but let's be honest, Aho, TT, Svech, Necas and Pesce are not enough. Elite player like Hamilton is part of the solution. Not to mention you just cant find D like him very often. But let's pay for overpriced bottom six grinders and Skjei and Gards.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

While on the subject of Hamilton, his negotiating leverage sure has changed. 8 months ago, he was in the midst of a Norris caliber season and looking ahead to a new U.S. TV deal spiking the cap in the 1st year of his next contract. $9 mil (+) seemed realistic. 8 months later, he's coming off of a major injury and the cap could be static for years to come. Is he an $8 mil player at this point?

 

[Justshootmore]

Someone posted this chart on the main boards. Not sure how exactly those numbers are calculated (I assume expected goals vs. actual goals), but this chart sums up the problem with Mrazek (and Reimer is probably not that different). Mrazek plays great 65% of the time, and is definitely able to steal us some games, but man, the other 35% you can get anything from mediocre to horrible.

 

[DaveG]

Hamilton >>>> Faulk
Lindholm >> Trocheck
Skjei >= Hanifin

In my estimation.

I'd wait and see on Trochek. 2-3 years ago he was an absolute offensive force and he was probably our 3rd best forward these playoffs after he had the time off to recover with the covid shutdown. I can easily see him back at that level especially as Necas keeps developing. Just need to find him someone on the LW that can be a physical presence without being an offensive black hole.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Yup Nylander has played all 3 forward positions and I personally thought LW was his strongest.

I would absolutely not expect to receive the 13th overall for Andersen

The problem with Andersen, is I'm not confident the Canes will pay him what he wants and we'll be in the same boat Toronto is in, not being able to pay him (for different reasons than Toronto) and he'll move on. If I was confident that Andersen could be signed to a reasonable amount and the Canes management would agree with that reasonable amount, it would be a different story, but I'm not confident of that right now.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

View attachment 362527


Someone posted this chart on the main boards. Not sure how exactly those numbers are calculated (I assume expected goals vs. actual goals), but this chart sums up the problem with Mrazek (and Reimer is probably not that different). Mrazek plays great 65% of the time, and is definitely able to steal us some games, but man, the other 35% you can get anything from mediocre to horrible.

I don't understand this chart. Doesn't it say he plays great a larger % of the time than most other goalies? Is there a metric in this chart that says how they play the "non-quality" starts?

 

[the halleJOKEL]

did someone just try to compare hamilton, a norris contender prior to his injury this season, to faulk?

oof

 

[Justshootmore]

I don't understand this chart. Doesn't it say he plays great a larger % of the time than most other goalies? Is there a metric in this chart that says how they play the "non-quality" starts?

Yes, it basically says that 65% of his starts are quality starts, and about 15% of the time he steals a game (or at least plays like he would). The chart does not have any metric about non quality starts, but logically if he has more quality starts than any other goalie, but his save% is only league average, his other starts need to be bad. Only other option would be that he faces more high danger shots than any other goalie in the league, but just from the eye test I wouldn't say that's true (also would be crazy given our D-core). Unfortunately I don't have the numbers for non-quality starts.

 

[DougieSmash]

While on the subject of Hamilton, his negotiating leverage sure has changed. 8 months ago, he was in the midst of a Norris caliber season and looking ahead to a new U.S. TV deal spiking the cap in the 1st year of his next contract. $9 mil (+) seemed realistic. 8 months later, he's coming off of a major injury and the cap could be static for years to come. Is he an $8 mil player at this point?

I doubt it. He is what he is - elite goalscoring dman, rh shot, first pairing guy. I think they will offer him something like 38-43 M for 5 years.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I know there's a strong preference for Dougie over Faulk on this board...but

No. Hamilton is a top 10-15 defender in the NHL. Faulk is a decent 2nd pairing guy.

I'm not saying you're wrong because we all know how contract negotiations work around here.

But I don't see the point in continuously turning over elite players. It's one thing to replace Faulk with Hamilton and say "we got our guy" and build around that. It's another thing entirely to trade Faulk, then trade Hamilton, and just continuously be taking the risk that the next guy can fill that gap. That's playing games with the core of what is currently a pretty good team but could very quickly become a lottery candidate due to a lack of talent.

I'm all for playing these games with the periphery players. If your team hurts from letting Warren Foegele and Brick McGinn go, then thats indicative of larger problems than the loss of those guys anyway.

But absolutely not with your core guys. You get them and pay what it takes to keep them. Is it a coincidence successful teams like Boston and Pittsburgh get their elite players under team friendly deals? No, but that's not an excuse to lowball your core players.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised, and I don't think anyone here would either, if Hamilton is traded after he "refused" to sign with the Canes.

 

[bleedgreen]

I think only part of it was money. I think there was a lot of "We need to change the culture by moving some players" to it. Whether that was valid or not (ie..would have Lindholm and Hanifin played well under Brindy or was there a better offer out there), we'll never really know.

I think it was that and more. I don’t think it had anything to do with either player. We wanted to “change the culture” like you said and aside from Aho who they made a point of telling us they were building around probably anyone was available at the right price. They decided because these two were about to have contracts while not being Aho that they were the most valuable pieces they could afford to use to get the change.

In the end I’m pretty close to where @MinJaBen is in that it comes down to signing Hamilton. If we don’t the trade was a shit show to me. It’s an acceptable one if he stays and the price isn’t crippling.

 

[2Minutes4Surging]

I doubt it. He is what he is - elite goalscoring dman, rh shot, first pairing guy. I think they will offer him something like 38-43 M for 5 years.

I agree with those AAV's. $8M is a reasonable expectation and I think $8.5M is the max we will go. 5 years is probably the max the FO would like to go also. Do you think Dougie will ask for 7 years though?