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Rumor: ALL PURPOSE JT MILLER THREAD PT2 - It's Been 84 Years....

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Retinalz said:
I think when Kadri signs, Miller won't be long after. Klingberg already screwed himself over. 30+ year olds now are seeing 1-2 year contracts and going from contract to contract. If Miller wants 6-8 years, his AAV ask needs to come down and he knows it. Kadri will just be the proof he needs. Same with Klingberg.
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Honestly I’d love the guy in NJ on a 2-3 year deal. The ask from Vancouver fans definitely turned me off to the idea though. NJ shouldn’t be giving up any major assets for anyone over 25 years old. We’re just not there yet.
 
Jerzey Devil said:
Honestly I’d love the guy in NJ on a 2-3 year deal. The ask from Vancouver fans definitely turned me off to the idea though. NJ shouldn’t be giving up any major assets for anyone over 25 years old. We’re just not there yet.
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Agreed, but you don't go after a player who was top 10 scoring and 21st at 5v5 in the league and not expect to give up major assets. Expiring or not.
 
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Jerzey Devil said:
Honestly I’d love the guy in NJ on a 2-3 year deal. The ask from Vancouver fans definitely turned me off to the idea though. NJ shouldn’t be giving up any major assets for anyone over 25 years old. We’re just not there yet.
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He is not gonna sign 2-3year deal that's the problem
 
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Jerzey Devil said:
That’s a problem for everyone involved.
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I disagree. He will likely have 4-5 productive years on that 8 year contract plus next season. In 24-25 it is estimated the cap will go about 90m. If you can get him from a 4 year deal at 8.5 into a 7 or 8 year deal at 7, he gets paid more money overall, has income security, and it fits under the cap now a lot better.
 
Dont think it was unrealistic for fans to expect a haul for a guy with his profile … rumoured NYR Chytll-whatever deal seemed underwhelming at the time and still doesnt really address needs. Its also a bit hindsight to say the way contracts were flying and record millions doled out as capspace vanished and the market dried up was entirely predictable.
But if youre Miller right now your probably thinking your best shot to cash in is next summer as a UFA, as canucks dont seem prepared to give him what he wants and the trade market seems dry.
Then if youre the canucks your likely plan is to say all the right things about retaining him but plan on moving him at TDL, which comes with all kinds of risk, not the least of which is bonehead ownership refusing with POs in he mix, as per this least year.
Shame, but seems Isles fans feel the rumoured draft day deal that fell apart was unlikely with Miller anyway, so seems management overestimed the trade market as much as fans did.
 
NYVanfan said:
Dont think it was unrealistic for fans to expect a haul for a guy with his profile … rumoured NYR Chytll-whatever deal seemed underwhelming at the time and still doesnt really address needs. Its also a bit hindsight to say the way contracts were flying and record millions doled out as capspace vanished and the market dried up was entirely predictable.
But if youre Miller right now your probably thinking your best shot to cash in is next summer as a UFA, as canucks dont seem prepared to give him what he wants and the trade market seems dry.
Then if youre the canucks your likely plan is to say all the right things about retaining him but plan on moving him at TDL, which comes with all kinds of risk, not the least of which is bonehead ownership refusing with POs in he mix, as per this least year.
Shame, but seems Isles fans feel the rumoured draft day deal that fell apart was unlikely with Miller anyway, so seems management overestimed the trade market as much as fans did.
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He is likely looking at Kadri. Kadri is the best example of what he will get. He also knows that Patrick Kane will be looking for a new home next season, and if Toews has a good year, him as well. Horvat likely extends as a Canuck, but if he doesn't there is another player competing for cap. And not a lot of teams have tons of cap room next year unless they pay assets to move it. He wants the Cup, so I doubt teams like Anaheim are likely landing spots for him.
 
Retinalz said:
He is likely looking at Kadri. Kadri is the best example of what he will get. He also knows that Patrick Kane will be looking for a new home next season, and if Toews has a good year, him as well. Horvat likely extends as a Canuck, but if he doesn't there is another player competing for cap. And not a lot of teams have tons of cap room next year unless they pay assets to move it. He wants the Cup, so I doubt teams like Anaheim are likely landing spots for him.
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I suspect he wants his $64M, and could just as easily convince himself that Anaheim (or anyone else) has as legit a shot as the Canucks over the term he wants.

The only thing positive about this situation to date is there hasnt been any bad PR from either side…everybody saying the right things. But i bet the Canucks are offering him 5x$7.5M or something and if i were him i wouldnt take it either. I bet he gets moved for something underwhelming at this point. Again, i dont think it was entirely foreseeable how tight capspace would be, or that priority would be giving the Guddys of the world their $16M… but it does seem like management overplayed this one

Ps it is worth noting that JT got plum assignments all year, with top PP time (2nd only to Hughes) plus PK, over 21 mins tot, top linemates … his 99 points was great, and his pace solid for 3 years, but prior to this year in 9 seasons been over 56 points just once. Other GMs know this ..its not like he has been a consistent stud like Huberdeau or Gaudreau…
on the other hand i can see him pointing to the Hertl deal….
 
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NYVanfan said:
I suspect he wants his $64M, and could just as easily convince himself that Anaheim (or anyone else) has as legit a shot as the Canucks over the term he wants.

The only thing positive about this situation to date is there hasnt been any bad PR from either side…everybody saying the right things. But i bet the Canucks are offering him 5x$7.5M or something and if i were him i wouldnt take it either. I bet he gets moved for something underwhelming at this point. Again, i dont think it was entirely foreseeable how tight capspace would be, or that priority would be giving the Guddys of the world their $16M… but it does seem like management overplayed this one
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At this point, moving him and getting any future assets, is better than being the team that gives him his retirement contract.
 
Retinalz said:
One thing we have learned with the new management is that our Media now knows absolutely nothing. They are making things up. I still read the crap that they say(when people post it here) but I take it with a grain of salt now.

If Miller produces and stays healthy, he will be worth a kings ransom at this years TDL. 30-40 pt guys get a 1st and 3rd-2nd at TDL. What will a PPG player get? Teams will always pay to get the guy who gives them the best shot at the cup. Look at what the Aves sent to get a 3rd liner in Montreal to put them over the top. Rangers gave a ton for Copp, etc etc etc. And these guys are all much lesser pieces than Miller.

All that said, I think he will extend after Kadri signs. Klingberg just fired his agent for bad advice, Kadri is dangling out there. Once Kadri signs for less than 8m, Miller will see that he will have issues next off season and take the best deal he can get, but demand 8 years for it.
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He won't get more than the Giroux deal
Good prospect, protected 1st, and maybe a filler piece or two
 
Alluckks said:
He won't get more at the TDL

Vancouver fans been posturing how much Miller is worth for a year now

And is he really? I bet quite a few GMs would value Giroux over Miller as playoff rentals
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Explain your reasoning

Miller is still in prime and Giroux had been declining for a few years. Miller's last 3 years of production far out perform Giroux. Miller is far more physical. Both are fairly equal defensively, good at faceoffs(Miller takes quite a bit more these days). Miller defenitely has more value currently, unless he declines this year and has a terrible year ofc.
 
One of the overlooked problems and reasons for the large gap in his value between Canuck and neutral fans among his age and the contract he's looking for, is that Miller is pretty far from being a 1st line center on a contending team imo.

He's either 2nd line C who isn't a great matchup C like a lot of 2C's are, or he's a winger. That's how I see Jt Miller, more of a top-line scoring winger than a true 1st line center or even 2C (because he's not great defensively or a good matchup).
 
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Filthy Dangles said:
One of the overlooked problems and reasons for the large gap in his value between Canuck and neutral fans among his age and the contract he's looking for, is that Miller is pretty far from being a 1st line center on a contending team imo.

He's either 2nd line C who isn't a great matchup C like a lot of 2C's are, or he's a winger. That's how I see Jt Miller, more of a top-line scoring winger than a true 1st line center or even 2C (because he's not great defensively or a good matchup).
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Putting up over a PPG is 1st line production. Sure some teams have a better 1c, like Toronto with Matthews, but Miller would push Tavares to a 3c roll and off PP1 the day he arrives(if you could afford him). Every team in the league wants a 1a/1b combo.
 
Retinalz said:
Putting up over a PPG is 1st line production. Sure some teams have a better 1c, like Toronto with Matthews, but Miller would push Tavares to a 3c roll and off PP1 the day he arrives(if you could afford him). Every team in the league wants a 1a/1b combo.
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Miller's definitely closer to a Tavares level player than a Matthews level player. He's the better player but he'd be fighting with Tavares for the 2C spot if anything or more likely just slide to wing because he's more a winger-center hybrid and Tavares is a pure center.

The point still stands, JT Miller is not a 1st line center on a contender, or most teams really.
 
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Filthy Dangles said:
Miller's definitely closer to a Tavares level player than a Matthews level player. He's the better player but he'd be fighting with Tavares for the 2C spot if anything or more likely just slide to wing because he's more a winger-center hybrid and Tavares is a pure center.

The point still stands, JT Miller is not a 1st line center on a contender, or most teams really.
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4 centres had more points than Miller last season.

He’s a 1C on almost every team in the leagu.
 
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Love said:
4 centres had more points than Miller last season.

He’s a 1C on almost every team in the leagu.
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So the criteria to supplant existing 1Cs on contending teams is just to out-point them in the previous year? That's rather reductive and simplistic.

Again, like almost all posts that continue to underscore Miller's career year, is the overdose of RECENCY BIAS (look it up)

It surely isn't that simple where "just because player X scored more points than a 1C on another team last season, player X must be the better 1C when contending for a cup".

Also, look up regression to the mean.
 
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