Rumor: ALL PURPOSE JT MILLER THREAD PT2 - It's Been 84 Years....

[mdobbs]

JT Miller has been the most valuable skater on the canucks for the majority of the last 3 seasons and outside of Hughes I don’t think there’s anyone else even close

If the Canucks trade him they’re going to be a materially worse team this year and probably need him to keep any playoff hopes alive. Hard to think they trade him unless the return is excellent.

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

Guy scores 99 points. "well, he's really not even a 90 point player"
ONLY ON HF lol

Players don't turn into 100pt players suddenly at the age of 29.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Players don't turn into 100pt players suddenly at the age of 29.

Brad Marchand did. In fact, he was 30.

 

[EP to EP back to EP]

Sign him to an extension. Pay to clear cap like other teams have. Problem solved.

Thats what I want TBH. Pearson is still a legit 3rd liner so probably doesn't cost a lot to dump next off season. Dickinson is 1m overpaid as a 4th liner but still a legit NHLer, so for 1 year probably doesn't cost a ton to move as well. Both expire the year after. If a defender like Gudbranson can get 4x4, then Poolman probably has minimal positive value. can probably dump him and get a 6th or 7th back. that free's up a ton of space, buyouts come off the books covers all of Horvats increase and a bit of Millers.

Players don't turn into 100pt players suddenly at the age of 29.

Turned into a ppg player at 26, which is in line with when most players hit their prime. 47 pts with 3rd line minutes the year before also showed he had it in him with more opportunity.

 

[Peter Griffin]

I wonder if both sides are waiting for Kadri to land to get an idea of the comparable market. Gaudreau getting 7 years, $9.75M after a 40 goal, 115 point season and having several other seasons well above Miller's production probably shutters any hopes of him getting something in the $9M+ range next offseason.

 

[EP to EP back to EP]

I wonder if both sides are waiting for Kadri to land to get an idea of the comparable market. Gaudreau getting 7 years, $9.75M after a 40 goal, 115 point season and having several other seasons well above Miller's production probably shutters any hopes of him getting something in the $9M+ range next offseason.

I am hoping something like 6 years, under 8.5 for Miller. I think he will produce until he is 34/35 with the last 1-2 years of the contract being a burden. but that would give us 5-6 years(inc this one) of being competitive with Miller. This year is more of a playoff team, and maybe 2 or 3 seasons from now a cup competitive team.

If we can somehow improve our top 4, I think we have a legitimate shot at seeing 3rd round. We have the goalie and the forward group to do it.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Guy scores 99 points. "well, he's really not even a 90 point player"
ONLY ON HF lol

I would say it's reasonable to question a player who saw a 43% increase in P/GP at age 29, in a contract year.

Not really buying the whole "We love him but his salary doesn't fit" argument either. You just spent 4.5m on a guy who struggled to produce at a 3rd line pace. You're paying OEL 7m to be a #5. You're paying Brock 6.5m to hopefully score 30g.

If JT Miller was the player we're being told he is by Vancouver fans, they would just sign him and keep him. He would be their Marchand. Perfect guy to lead a young team.

 

[Bondra slapshot]

Guy scores 99 points. "well, he's really not even a 90 point player"
ONLY ON HF lol

Funny. Because a bunch of GMs and fans within your own fan base don't see him as a player that will replicate that production.

Again, yes, he's a 90 or 100 point player if you're referring to his past accomplishment, but if you're referring to what you can expect from him in the future, it's a huge question mark. And also, if a player only hits that milestone once in a career, it's quite misleading and disingenuous to say he's a 100 point player, if you're saying that he'll continue to be that player. Your own vancouver board are saying that he's most likely going to come back down to earth and that's why they want to move him now, before he regresses back to his mean.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

View attachment 569597

I would say it's reasonable to question a player who saw a 43% increase in P/GP at age 29, in a contract year.

Not really buying the whole "We love him but his salary doesn't fit" argument either. You just spent 4.5m on a guy who struggled to produce at a 3rd line pace. You're paying OEL 7m to be a #5. You're paying Brock 6.5m to hopefully score 30g.

If JT Miller was the player we're being told he is by Vancouver fans, they would just sign him and keep him. He would be their Marchand. Perfect guy to lead a young team.

what an amazing graph, truly a masterpiece

you've got it all:

deceptive axis range
nonsensical title
no adjustment for drastic changes in usage or league-wide scoring
complete lack of understanding of what a contract year is

honestly should be in the hf hall of fame, this is an advanced level shitpost

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

Thats what I want TBH. Pearson is still a legit 3rd liner so probably doesn't cost a lot to dump next off season. Dickinson is 1m overpaid as a 4th liner but still a legit NHLer, so for 1 year probably doesn't cost a ton to move as well. Both expire the year after. If a defender like Gudbranson can get 4x4, then Poolman probably has minimal positive value. can probably dump him and get a 6th or 7th back. that free's up a ton of space, buyouts come off the books covers all of Horvats increase and a bit of Millers.


Turned into a ppg player at 26, which is in line with when most players hit their prime. 47 pts with 3rd line minutes the year before also showed he had it in him with more opportunity.

I'm not discounting that Miller isn't a great player, but a 100pt player puts him into a different category than ppg player IMO.

I shouldn't speak for others, but I believe that is the distinction others are making. I'd love to see him on the Penguins (fingers crossed), but I hope we don't overpay for him.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Two extreme positions here imo. Some calling him a 99 point player because of one year. Others calling him a 60 point player and ignoring the last 3 years.
I think most see him as a PPG player which is reasonable. I mean the gap in points between Miller and the next closest Canuck forward was massive.
On the plus side he’s a bargain for one more year and probably you get a few more elite years out of him with an extension. On the negative side a long term contract probably is an issue for the last couple of years as he will be 30 when he signs the extension.
Not a lot out there for teams looking for a high end center. Kadri at his age is an even bigger risk imo.

 

[Kryten]

Players don't turn into 100pt players suddenly at the age of 29.

On the Canucks they do. Naslund 104, Bertuzzi 97, Henrik 112, Daniel 104, Miller 99

 

[wonton15]

what an amazing graph, truly a masterpiece

you've got it all:

deceptive axis range
nonsensical title
no adjustment for drastic changes in usage or league-wide scoring
complete lack of understanding of what a contract year is

honestly should be in the hf hall of fame, this is an advanced level shitpost

I was truly astonished by that post. Like I had to lean back far into my chair and squint and wonder if we're being trolled very softly

 

[EP to EP back to EP]

I'm not discounting that Miller isn't a great player, but a 100pt player puts him into a different category than ppg player IMO.

I shouldn't speak for others, but I believe that is the distinction others are making. I'd love to see him on the Penguins (fingers crossed), but I hope we don't overpay for him.

He is a PPG player who could still have a 100(near) pt season or 2 left in him. If he played LW to Malkin, I could see him doing it again easily.

Letang, Guentzel, Crosby, Miller, Malkin as your PP1 will be top 3 in the league. If Pitts is truly where he wants to play(who knows when it comes to rumors) he will probably figure out a way to make it work as well. outside of Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel there isn't a single player on your team that isn't expendable to keep Miller. Even Guentzel is a toss up, with Guentzel edging out Miller due to age.

 

[islandersbob]

what an amazing graph, truly a masterpiece

you've got it all:

deceptive axis range
nonsensical title
no adjustment for drastic changes in usage or league-wide scoring
complete lack of understanding of what a contract year is

honestly should be in the hf hall of fame, this is an advanced level shitpost

you are right, that's a pretty crummy graph that doesn't give much info.

Nothing is Points per game as the title suggests. Maybe Points per season*
*adjusted for a 82 game regular season, ignoring the fact that multiple season were "Covid" seasons with less GP. Or that JT Miller's role on his team changed dramatically from depth player to top liner. Also, wouldn't last season be considered his aged 28 season?

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

Not really buying the whole "We love him but his salary doesn't fit" argument either. You just spent 4.5m on a guy who struggled to produce at a 3rd line pace. You're paying OEL 7m to be a #5. You're paying Brock 6.5m to hopefully score 30g.

If JT Miller was the player we're being told he is by Vancouver fans, they would just sign him and keep him. He would be their Marchand. Perfect guy to lead a young team.

This is a very disingenuous take.

Not only does Mikheyev fit a completely different role than Miller, he'll be 31 at the end of his contract whereas a 5-6 year deal with Miller puts him at 36. Not to mention 4.7 and 8.5+ are two very different numbers.

OEL was brought in by another GM who was widely considered among the worst GMs in the last two decades. You won't find any Canuck fan happy about that decision.

Boeser is 25. Which means in three years, when we'll be a better team, he'll be 28. Ironically, almost the same age Miller is now.

Marchand has been flanked by the likes of Bergeron, Pastrnak, Krejci, Debrusk and Hall. There's a sizable gap in skill here. Hence why Boston has been in the playoffs and Vancouver hasn't. You're drawing a comparison here that just doesn't exist.

The Canucks simply aren't anything more than a bubble team with Miller. Which is why he doesn't fit our timeline.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

what an amazing graph, truly a masterpiece

you've got it all:

deceptive axis range
nonsensical title
no adjustment for drastic changes in usage or league-wide scoring
complete lack of understanding of what a contract year is

honestly should be in the hf hall of fame, this is an advanced level shitpost

You're not wrong lol, just looked at it again, lots of errors - deleted

 

[EP to EP back to EP]

I would say it's reasonable to question a player who saw a 43% increase in P/GP at age 29, in a contract year.

Not really buying the whole "We love him but his salary doesn't fit" argument either. You just spent 4.5m on a guy who struggled to produce at a 3rd line pace. You're paying OEL 7m to be a #5. You're paying Brock 6.5m to hopefully score 30g.

If JT Miller was the player we're being told he is by Vancouver fans, they would just sign him and keep him. He would be their Marchand. Perfect guy to lead a young team.

If Miller is traded, it is because he wasn't interested in staying here past next season. We can easily plug the hole at D with Garland if Miller would re-sign, and be a better team for it.

Management has said the days of letting players walk for nothing are over. That is likely during this retool, and not talking about any competitive years, but that means they will trade Miller if they can't find a deal that works.

If we trade Garland for Marino(as an example), we are a playoff team next year as an addition of Marino makes out defense better, and losing Garland, but gaining Mikheyev and Kuzmenko is still an improvement to our forward group.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

If Miller is traded, it is because he wasn't interested in staying here past next season. We can easily plug the hole at D with Garland if Miller would re-sign, and be a better team for it.

Management has said the days of letting players walk for nothing are over. That is likely during this retool, and not talking about any competitive years, but that means they will trade Miller if they can't find a deal that works.

If we trade Garland for Marino(as an example), we are a playoff team next year as an addition of Marino makes out defense better, and losing Garland, but gaining Mikheyev and Kuzmenko is still an improvement to our forward group.

I don't think Mikheyev is the player you think he is, but Kuz is a wildcard.

 

[EP to EP back to EP]

I don't think Mikheyev is the player you think he is, but Kuz is a wildcard.

I think both combine more than make up for the loss of Garland, and the addition of Marino would make up for the losses of Garland as well.

Garland is a really good player, but sometimes a really good player can be traded and make the team better because you fixed an area of weakness.

I see Mikheyev as a guy who will put up 15-25g and 35-50 pts while vastly improving our PK(which is what killed us last season)

Kuzmenko I see having a 40-50 pt season, definitely not a Panarin level player, but more like a Gusev(1st year) level effect.

 

[TropicOfNoReturn]

Players don't turn into 100pt players suddenly at the age of 29.

Right, he turned into a 99pt player. What a bum. That 100th pt is so much more valuable than the first 99

 

[DekeyPete]

My take on this thread (and this entire board lately)....there are way more young people finding this site with absurd ideas of player worth through Homer glasses.
The thing I was told when I joined this site and made one-sided proposals was " say nothing......read for a while"
Made me stop with proposals. Lol

 

[BCNate]

I usually cringe when reading this thread, so many definitive hot takes. So many people quoting sources that have been proven to be wrong at every single turn.

Why on earth do the Canucks need to trade JT Miller this offseason? Because his value is the highest? If his value was that high right now, he likely would have been dealt by now. Just because fans want to see moves, and get impatient, does not mean that is the way that professional organizations work.

If we roll into the season with this forward group in tact, it has a very good blend of skill and depth. We have one of the best goalies in the league with Demko. Our D, for all the criticism had the 9th lowest goals against last year, with the worst PK in the league. I'd say that one area that should be much better with our additions is the PK. It certainly isn't a case of the only way we can improve our D is trading our best forward.

Ultimately this is a team that should be in the playoffs, given their improvements and play under BB.

I would 100% welcome scenario where we continue to work through a deal with JT Miller, and roll into next year with a solid team. If a deal doesn't get done, deal him at the deadline for solid package, and hopefully are in a solid enough spot to continue on to the playoffs.

 

[The Old Master]

wrong thread

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Players don't turn into 100pt players suddenly at the age of 29.

Yes they do it’s called his prime…ask Brad Marchand who was nearly 31…