Player Discussion All Purpose Goaltending Thread

[Fezzy126]

There are 32 starters. 15 is roughly in the middle.

That's an average starting goalie

It depends on your definition of starter. There are only 17 goalies in the entire league that played >50 games. So roughly half the league are running time shares. But that's not really my point because it assumes that only starters can put up top 15 metrics.

I said that Levi put up top 15 metrics across the league, that statement is not limited to just starters, it includes a sample size of over 80 goalies. This includes guys that went on a really hot run over a short sample like Alex Lyon or Joseph Woll, and also one hit wonders like Samsonov.

For example, one stat I found very interesting was Levi's delta between expected Fenwick Save % and actual at even strength (dFSv%):

He was actually second in the entire league in this category, nearly two standard deviations above the rest of the league. He was incredible down the stretch, especially at even strength.

 

[sabremike]

I think they are convinced Levi is a unicorn. And honestly they may be right.

 

[Jim Bob]

I think they are convinced Levi is a unicorn. And honestly they may be right.

I am less worried about betting on Levi being a unicorn as I am on the bet that UPL and/or Comrie being a suitable plan B in case that Levi is not unicorn level in 2023-24.

If they go with what they have, it is walking a tight rope over Niagara Falls without any safety equipment, IMO.

 

[Jim Bob]

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The Flames missed their best opportunity to trade Dan Vladar and will have a tough time doing so now with the pressure of Wolf being ready.

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[Fjordy]

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The Flames missed their best opportunity to trade Dan Vladar and will have a tough time doing so now with the pressure of Wolf being ready.

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Probably not our client

 

[HaNotsri]

I think they are convinced Levi is a unicorn. And honestly they may be right.

Can a unicorn play 82 games? UPL/Comrie even as a backup means giving away a lot of games.
I'm ok with giving Levi the unicorn treatment but giving him split starts with a nhl-caliber goalie would be extreme enough.

A Tage Thompson turd might be bigger and better than Comrie in net.

 

[dortt]

Can a unicorn play 82 games? UPL/Comrie even as a backup means giving away a lot of games.
I'm ok with giving Levi the unicorn treatment but giving him split starts with a nhl-caliber goalie would be extreme enough.

A Tage Thompson turd might be bigger and better than Comrie in net.

Id be more worried with comrie. Upl at least makes a few big saves. Comrie wont allow a softie, but he wont bail us out

 

[Zman5778]

Comrie wont allow a softie, but he wont bail us out

.....except for when he DID bail us out twice in Alberta. And he was a major reason why we got a point against Montreal in late March.

 

[dortt]

.....except for when he DID bail us out twice in Alberta. And he was a major reason why we got a point against Montreal in late March.

He bailed out against edmonton.

Upl did that far more frequently

 

[TehDoak]

I think they are convinced Levi is a unicorn. And honestly they may be right.

Do you know what that kind of thinking is?

It's hubris. The idea that

"Well OUR guy is special. OUR guy doesn't need AHL time"

When there is an accepted and well honed process for bringing a goalie up to speed in the NHL. I'm sure there is plenty in the NHL that is stupid and done for no reason. Given the pure value proposition of a ELC starting goalie could bring to cap strapped team, you would think that it would have been looked at...a lot. The fact that it is rarely or almost never done should speak to whether or not its a good idea.

It depends on your definition of starter. There are only 17 goalies in the entire league that played >50 games. So roughly half the league are running time shares. But that's not really my point because it assumes that only starters can put up top 15 metrics.

I said that Levi put up top 15 metrics across the league, that statement is not limited to just starters, it includes a sample size of over 80 goalies. This includes guys that went on a really hot run over a short sample like Alex Lyon or Joseph Woll, and also one hit wonders like Samsonov.

For example, one stat I found very interesting was Levi's delta between expected Fenwick Save % and actual at even strength (dFSv%):

View attachment 726863

He was actually second in the entire league in this category, nearly two standard deviations above the rest of the league. He was incredible down the stretch, especially at even strength.

This sample size is so stupidly small it's not even mentioning. I'm if we looked at UPL's best run of 7 games he was a world beater too.

 

[Ace]

Would this organization have been better off if Levi stunk in his incredibly small sample size? Because Adams is punting on goalie AGAIN for a 21 year old…and just skipping his development process completely. Would he act like a real GM at the position for the first time in his tenure if a couple lucky bounces went in? Is it not a terrifying thought that his fourth off-season as GM appears to be heading towards not addressing goaltending because of a 21 year old who has never played a pro schedule? Or that that 21 year old could really use veteran mentorship and a steady player that can be counted on for stretches so all of the pressure and usage isn’t on someone who has never done it…and Adams doesn’t care?

If this costs them another season…or hurts Levi’s development…shouldn’t there be dire and permanent consequences for the GM who has failed at goalie every single year?

 

[TehDoak]

Would this organization have been better off if Levi stunk in his incredibly small sample size? Because Adams is punting on goalie AGAIN for a 21 year old…and just skipping his development process completely. Would he act like a real GM at the position for the first time in his tenure if a couple lucky bounces went in? Is it not a terrifying thought that his fourth off-season as GM appears to be heading towards not addressing goaltending because of a 21 year old who has never played a pro schedule? Or that that 21 year old could really use veteran mentorship and a steady player that can be counted on for stretches so all of the pressure and usage isn’t on someone who has never done it…and Adams doesn’t care?

If this costs them another season…or hurts Levi’s development…shouldn’t there be dire and permanent consequences for the GM who has failed at goalie every single year?

In the long term....probably? The value in having those important games down the stretch is real and it's good that we had them.

Unless Levi was absolutely toasted down the stretch I'm not sure the GM would have done much different. Anderson was terrible in 2021-22 and was brought back in 22-23. Heck they even gave him a raise. Maybe we just need to accept that once Adams decides something in his head and is impervious to any facts or logic from changing his plan.

 

[Fjordy]

In the long term....probably? The value in having those important games down the stretch is real and it's good that we had them.

Unless Levi was absolutely toasted down the stretch I'm not sure the GM would have done much different. Anderson was terrible in 2021-22 and was brought back in 22-23. Heck they even gave him a raise. Maybe we just need to accept that once Adams decides something in his head and is impervious to any facts or logic from changing his plan.

There are GMs in the NHL who have been unable to find a decent goaltender for many years, for various reasons. Adams is one of them. Maybe he is too greedy, maybe he is afraid of something. People here on the board even said that he waits for Levi to sign a contract, and then he will definitely find goalie, well, here we are again.

I also don't understand the hype around Levi. No, I like him, he looks promising, but he is currently an untested goaltender at the NHL level. And he should suddenly become a savior next season and play a lot of games? Not sure if this will work. And our other two goalies are closer to the AHL than the NHL for me. Many great goalies who have won Vezina and some of them who have won the Cup more than once. it took them some time and development early in their career to become good.

 

[RefsIdeas]

I do wonder if a combined 53 NHL games played between UPL/Levi going into the year would be some sort of record.

 

[sabremike]

I am less worried about betting on Levi being a unicorn as I am on the bet that UPL and/or Comrie being a suitable plan B in case that Levi is not unicorn level in 2023-24.

If they go with what they have, it is walking a tight rope over Niagara Falls without any safety equipment, IMO.

Give me an actual better option right now including the realistic cost of acquiring the guy. Would you be willing to give up our 3 best prospects to either rent Hellybuck for a year or give him a Bob style long term anchor of a contract? Would you want to pay a high price for Gibson, a guy who everything about him indicates "Do not touch"? There is no easy answer here.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Give me an actual better option right now including the realistic cost of acquiring the guy. Would you be willing to give up our 3 best prospects to either rent Hellybuck for a year or give him a Bob style long term anchor of a contract? Would you want to pay a high price for Gibson, a guy who everything about him indicates "Do not touch"? There is no easy answer here.

Doubtful that Adams would hinder Levi's path to full-time starter by acquiring a "name" goalie long-term. I'm still hoping for a passable NHL vet on a 2-3 year term.

If he sticks with Levi/UPL/Comrie to enter the season, fixing the PK and d-zone play seems like the simplest way to get competence from 3 unproven goalies. Easier said than done, or that would have happened last season.

Surely Adams isn't thinking of this as yet another "internal growth" development season. Anything short of a playoff berth will be a disappointing setback afaic.

 

[Fezzy126]

This sample size is so stupidly small it's not even mentioning. I'm if we looked at UPL's best run of 7 games he was a world beater too.

Correct, it is a very small sample - hence my earlier statement of "I don't think there was anything average about his performance. I'm also not banking on him, or anyone else, being able to perform well in that environment over a much longer sample size of games."

Looking at the numbers from a small sample size is very different than making conclusions based off of them.

But for the record, I'll play the game... UPL had two impressive stretches of ~5 games each, but if we stretch it to 7 games the first one was from December 7th to January 3rd. He was 6-1-0 with 0.913 Sv% and 2.97 GAA. His even strength dFSv% over this period was a silly 1.35, and his GSAx was 3.17. Yes, some of these numbers are really good...

His second good run of games was during his RoM run in January. From January 12th to January 28th he was 4-2-1 with a 0.916 Sv% and 2.70 GAA. However, the team played much better defense in front of him; His dFSv% was -1.05 and GSAx was -2.56. Basically the team elevated its play over this stretch and UPL was very meh.

So the blanket statement of using UPL's best 7 game stretch isn't really correct, his best numbers on the surface get exposed when looking at some of the advanced metrics.

 

[Fjordy]

Correct, it is a very small sample - hence my earlier statement of "I don't think there was anything average about his performance. I'm also not banking on him, or anyone else, being able to perform well in that environment over a much longer sample size of games."

Looking at the numbers from a small sample size is very different than making conclusions based off of them.

But for the record, I'll play the game... UPL had two impressive stretches of ~5 games each, but if we stretch it to 7 games the first one was from December 7th to January 3rd. He was 6-1-0 with 0.913 Sv% and 2.97 GAA. His even strength dFSv% over this period was a silly 1.35, and his GSAx was 3.17. Yes, some of these numbers are really good...

View attachment 727052


His second good run of games was during his RoM run in January. From January 12th to January 28th he was 4-2-1 with a 0.916 Sv% and 2.70 GAA. However, the team played much better defense in front of him; His dFSv% was -1.05 and GSAx was -2.56. Basically the team elevated its play over this stretch and UPL was very meh.
View attachment 727053

So the blanket statement of using UPL's best 7 game stretch isn't really correct, his best numbers on the surface get exposed when looking at some of the advanced metrics.

What about these metrics? It's just that I'm far from an expert in this, but it's still strange that our other two goalies were clearly better than the UPL and Comrie. Still, I think we definitely need new goaltender since our best goaltender last season is retired and Levi just came from college.

 

[Zman5778]

What about these metrics? It's just that I'm far from an expert in this, but it's still strange that our other two goalies were clearly better than the UPL and Comrie. Still, I think we definitely need new goaltender since our best goaltender last season is retired and Levi just came from college.
View attachment 727061
View attachment 727062

Again: MoneyPuck goalie metrics can't be used in a "this is a complete picture" way. MoneyPuck's expected goals stat uses DISTANCE FROM THE NET and ONLY that as the measure on if a goal should go in or not.

So what MoneyPuck is saying is that Comrie and UPL let in more shots than expected closer to the net. Of course, closer to the net is often more high danger -- and we KNOW that Buffalo allows a LOT of cross-crease passes which are stupid hard to stop.

So then "why did Anderson and Levi" perform better??? It's a combo of two relatively simple reasons: They were the two goalies who were better at moving cross-crease consistently.....and the defense just flat-out played better for Andy and Levi. Especially Levi, as most of his starts were in the playoff push when our D was actually performing decently well.

Improve the defense and you'll see these stats increase across the board.

 

[Fjordy]

Again: MoneyPuck goalie metrics can't be used in a "this is a complete picture" way. MoneyPuck's expected goals stat uses DISTANCE FROM THE NET and ONLY that as the measure on if a goal should go in or not.

So what MoneyPuck is saying is that Comrie and UPL let in more shots than expected closer to the net. Of course, closer to the net is often more high danger -- and we KNOW that Buffalo allows a LOT of cross-crease passes which are stupid hard to stop.

So then "why did Anderson and Levi" perform better??? It's a combo of two relatively simple reasons: They were the two goalies who were better at moving cross-crease consistently.....and the defense just flat-out played better for Andy and Levi. Especially Levi, as most of his starts were in the playoff push when our D was actually performing decently well.

Improve the defense and you'll see these stats increase across the board.

And if this does not happen? I mean, UPL and Comrie will also sucks, what then? Adams improve D, but I still don't believe in UPL and Comrie.

UPL in AHL and in NHL, he was an inconsistent goaltender, everyone knows this, he can play a small segment of games well, but then everything is bad again. Reminds me of Jack Campbell. Comrie is not an NHL goaltender at all, seriously, he had 10 good NHL games before joining Buffalo at that age.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Chad says the Sabres are not comfortable with there goaltending situation (Clearly) but not uncomfortable enough to where they have to overpay for one.

-Says they currently aren't in on Hellebuyck (thinks Winnipeg is hopeful to extend him... lol)

-Say Briere's asking price for Hart is wayyy too high (Could possibly come down.)

-Says Gibson is a possibility... Argued that Gibson could be better in a tandem roll.
Ducks need d-man which we have a lot of.

-Brought up Vladar but both Anthony and Chad think Levi needs a legit veteran to play with

 

[Zman5778]

Comrie is not an NHL goaltender at all, seriously, he had 10 good NHL games before joining Buffalo at that age.

I mean this with no disrespect. How many Comrie games did you watch last year? I do recall that when you re-started posting, you had mentioned that you missed a whole lot of this past season.

Remember that Comrie stats are disproportionately terrible because of the 10-goal Dallas game where no one showed up and the 7-goal Vegas game where Bryson, Clague and Fitzgerald all played.

He stole 2 points from both Edmonton and Calgary. Beyond that and a solid performance in getting a point against Montreal, he was never the reason we won....nor the reason we lost.

 

[Zman5778]

Chad says the Sabres are not comfortable with there goaltending situation (Clearly) but not uncomfortable enough to where they have to overpay for one.

-Says they're currently aren't in on Hellebuyck (thinks Winnipeg is hopeful to extend him... lol)

-Say Briere's asking price for Hart is wayyy too high.

-Says Gibson is a possibility... Argued that Gibson could be better in a tandem roll.
Ducks need d-man which we have a lot of.

-Brought up Vladar but both Anthony and Chad think Levi needs a legit veteran to play with

I'm not sure Gibson fits in the locker room. I'd rather Hart, which is saying a lot for me.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

I'm not sure Gibson fits in the locker room. I'd rather Hart, which is saying a lot for me.

Idk.. I can understand arguments from both.

I prefer Harts contract situation and is an RFA after this year

On the other hand I do like that Gibson is more of a seasoned vet and has more experience that Levi could benefit from...

What makes you think Gibson wouldn't fit in the locker room? Does he have a history I am unaware of?

 

[Zman5778]

What makes you think Gibson wouldn't fit in the locker room? Does he have a history I am unaware of?

Mostly the rumors that he's very set in his ways and resistant to coaching. Which if those are true, I don't want that around Levi.