Player Discussion All Purpose Goaltending Thread

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Gerstmann 3:16
Jun 9, 2012
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Reading this and the levi stuff, granted CH plays a ton of games, but other than that even if they bring a 1a in there will still be 40 starts available for Levi, more if he gets hot but goalies arent logging 65-70 start seasons. Theoretically 32 starting spots and they range from 64-38 starts. So really unless helly is brought in levi could easily see starting numbers with any other goalie as the 1a/b.
 

Jim Bob

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Feb 27, 2002
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Kevin Woodley is back on the PDOCast and it is a great conversation about how chances against can make publicly available goalie stats look a little better than how a goalie played and how some subtle techniques really matter.
 

Jim Bob

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Feb 27, 2002
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System Adaptation and Defensive Support:

The Vegas Golden Knights have astutely matched their defensive system to accommodate Hill's goaltending style and address potential vulnerabilities. With a well-orchestrated strategy in place, the team aims to shield Hill against the exposures inherent in his deeper net play. Employing a zone defence system, the Golden Knights focus on protecting the low and high slots, limiting the opposition's access to these high-danger areas. This defensive scheme is a foundation for Hill's success, enabling him to concentrate on his primary objective: protecting the middle of the net with unwavering discipline.

That last part is why projecting what Adin Hill would look like on the Sabres really tough, IMO.
 

Fjordy

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Jun 20, 2018
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That last part is why projecting what Adin Hill would look like on the Sabres really tough, IMO.
But what he looked like in San Jose and Arizona? I'm not sure if they have the same system as Vegas, plus roster are not comparable.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
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But what he looked like in San Jose and Arizona? I'm not sure if they have the same system as Vegas, plus roster are not comparable.
He has never played to the level he has in the playoffs during the regular season throughout his career.

In the regular season, he went from -0.7 GSAA in SJ last season to +8.0 GSAA [per Hockey Reference] in Vegas this year.

I would not be surprised if Hill were a huge disappointment for many if he were to sign with the Sabres.
 

Fjordy

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Jun 20, 2018
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He has never played to the level he has in the playoffs during the regular season throughout his career.

In the regular season, he went from -0.7 GSAA in SJ last season to +8.0 GSAA [per Hockey Reference] in Vegas this year.

I would not be surprised if Hill were a huge disappointment for many if he were to sign with the Sabres.
Also, I wouldn't be surprised if he does well in the Sabres or somewhere else. I think it’s very difficult to read goalies, analytics doesn’t always work here.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
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Rochester, NY
Also, I wouldn't be surprised if he does well in the Sabres or somewhere else. I think it’s very difficult to read goalies, analytics doesn’t always work here.
Analytics are not the basis for my skepticism. It is how Hill plays the game and a well respected goalie coach laying out why he looks good in Vegas.

Fit matters and I do not see the Sabres being a good fit for Hill.
 

Fjordy

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Jun 20, 2018
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Analytics are not the basis for my skepticism. It is how Hill plays the game and a well respected goalie coach laying out why he looks good in Vegas.

Fit matters and I do not see the Sabres being a good fit for Hill.
Yes, but we've already talked about this. Buffalo's game system can transform/change, defense will improve. I'm not arguing that the Buffalo should definitely sign Hill, I'm just speculating. Again, Hill had decent results in Arizona and San Jose, and he wasn't as hot as he is now in Vegas in the playoffs, but he seemed to be consistent.
 

elchud

Registered User
Nov 1, 2015
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Re: Hill, past 3 season, 3 different teams, .913 .906 .915, career is .910.

If he can pitch .900 for us we make the playoffs.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
58,903
39,976
Rochester, NY
Yes, but we've already talked about this. Buffalo's game system can transform/change, defense will improve. I'm not arguing that the Buffalo should definitely sign Hill, I'm just speculating. Again, Hill had decent results in Arizona and San Jose, and he wasn't as hot as he is now in Vegas in the playoffs, but he seemed to be consistent.
Comrie looked consistent in Winnipeg in 2021-22, too.

And I will believe the Sabres are better defensively when they show it. We are not there yet.
 

Fjordy

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Jun 20, 2018
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Comrie looked consistent in Winnipeg in 2021-22, too.

And I will believe the Sabres are better defensively when they show it. We are not there yet.
Comrie has only been good for one season and that is Winnipeg. Hill has been decent and consistent in three seasons in Arizona and San Jose with their poor defense.
 

WhereAreTheCookies

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Feb 16, 2022
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Comrie has only been good for one season and that is Winnipeg. Hill has been decent and consistent in three seasons in Arizona and San Jose with their poor defense.
I don't believe San Jose's defense was as bad as you're remembering. They were pretty middle of the pack last year, and Arizona has generally played a pretty defensive type of system over the past decade.

22 - 23 - Hill performed at the same level as Thompson, outperformed by Brossoit.
21 - 22 - Hill was outperformed by both Reimer and Kahkonen
20 - 21 - Hill outperformed Kuemper and Raanta
19 - 20 - Hill was outperformed by Kuemper and Raanta
18 - 19 - Hill was outperformed by Raanta and Significantly outperformed by Kuemper

Compared to his peers on each team, he has been the worst of the 3 goalies for 3 of the 5 seasons, the best for 1 season, and the middle of the group this past season. He's having a great playoffs no doubt, but the teams he's played for don't play the same free-wheeling high event game that Buffalo does.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
58,903
39,976
Rochester, NY
Comrie has only been good for one season and that is Winnipeg. Hill has been decent and consistent in three seasons in Arizona and San Jose with their poor defense.
The key is to diving into what chances that Hill is good at stopping and which ones he struggles with and compare that to what the Sabres tend to give up.

I do not see Hill being a good enough skater to look good behind the Sabres.
 

Fjordy

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Jun 20, 2018
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I don't believe San Jose's defense was as bad as you're remembering. They were pretty middle of the pack last year, and Arizona has generally played a pretty defensive type of system over the past decade.

22 - 23 - Hill performed at the same level as Thompson, outperformed by Brossoit.
21 - 22 - Hill was outperformed by both Reimer and Kahkonen
20 - 21 - Hill outperformed Kuemper and Raanta
19 - 20 - Hill was outperformed by Kuemper and Raanta
18 - 19 - Hill was outperformed by Raanta and Significantly outperformed by Kuemper

Compared to his peers on each team, he has been the worst of the 3 goalies for 3 of the 5 seasons, the best for 1 season, and the middle of the group this past season. He's having a great playoffs no doubt, but the teams he's played for don't play the same free-wheeling high event game that Buffalo does.
I thought the defense of San Jose was terrible, in the same place EK 65 does not play defense at all, and Vlasiс fell off a cliff a long time ago. Who played well in defense there? Even Ferraro's metrics weren't good. I just looked at Hill's stats, they've been normal in all these seasons.

The key is to diving into what chances that Hill is good at stopping and which ones he struggles with and compare that to what the Sabres tend to give up.

I do not see Hill being a good enough skater to look good behind the Sabres.
Then Comrie and UPL also very bad and do not fit, if you think like that, they even played worse than Hill. Hill might not fit, who knows.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
58,903
39,976
Rochester, NY
Then Comrie and UPL also very bad and do not fit, if you think like that, they even played worse than Hill. Hill might not fit, who knows.
I am not a fan of the idea of having the Sabres do nothing in goal this off season.

But, if they do something, I want them to add a guy that fits the way they are playing and not how they might play in the future as I do not expect a huge step forward in defensive play in 2023-24.

Signing Hill would likely not end well and I want them to avoid this situation again being viewed as the biggest issue the Sabres have to address next off season.
 

Fjordy

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Jun 20, 2018
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I am not a fan of the idea of having the Sabres do nothing in goal this off season.

But, if they do something, I want them to add a guy that fits the way they are playing and not how they might play in the future as I do not expect a huge step forward in defensive play in 2023-24.

Signing Hill would likely not end well and I want them to avoid this situation again being viewed as the biggest issue the Sabres have to address next off season.
I agree that they should find the right guy, I just think there may be a little more of these right guys than we think.
 

WhereAreTheCookies

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I thought the defense of San Jose was terrible, in the same place EK 65 does not play defense at all, and Vlasiс fell off a cliff a long time ago. Who played well in defense there? Even Ferraro's metrics weren't good. I just looked at Hill's stats, they've been normal in all these seasons.
Yes some of their Dmen aren't great defensively, but they also play more of a team defense so some of their forwards are more responsible defensively than what would likely happen in Buffalo. They also had the 2nd best PK % last season, and they have been good on the PK for a number of years. The last time their PK fell below 80% was in 14-15, and over the past 5 seasons they have been in the top 5 twice. They were also middle of the pack in shots allowed last season, not at the bottom which is where one would expect a terrible defensive team to be.

San Jose's problems wasn't entirely their defense so much as it was their inability to score last season. They were a very average team defensively, but one of the worst offensively. Even if you look at his advanced stats, other than this season he's only had a positive goals saved above expected 1 other time in his career according to moneypuck. While this doesn't always tell the whole story, they do tend to fall into place when comparing goalies side by side for goals saved above expected per 60. Where you generally find the guys who most agree are the best in the league near the top of those lists, and the worst filtering toward the bottom. By that measure, he has typically fallen to the bottom half of those lists.

He's not a bad goalie, but I don't think he's any better than other potentially less expensive options. This playoff run may juice his next contract to be much higher than it rightfully should be.
 
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