Prospect Info: All-Purpose 2024 Draft Thread & Celebrini discussion (also the 14th pick and whatever else is draft related)

[Barrie22]

NJ is apparently open to trading #10? They want some help right now though which I don't really think we could give.

Trade the rights to Hoffman, labanc, zadina.

 

[pappaf2]

Solberg highlights. @Kcoyote3, is this a product of the league or is he just a really strong kid?

Obviously this is just a package of hitting highlights which how can you not love?. Any concern that he is over aggressive sometimes chasing a big hit that is unnecessary which puts him out of position?

 

[Hodge]

Totally. A true #1 doesn’t need another top-pairing quality D on his pairing to make it work. In fact, I feel like best-slash-most attainable formula for a successful defense might be something like the Tampa model, where Hedman/McDonagh/Sergachev played on different pairings with decent bottom pairing guys as their partners. It’s juniors, but Saginaw just won the Mem Cup with Parekh/Donavan/Dionico on separate pairs until crunch time where they pretty much played only four D.

Edmonton only has Bouchard/Ekholm/Nurse as real top-4 D and Florida only has Forsling/Ekblad/Montour. You can definitely make it work.

It’s just a matter of is a legit #1D prospect even available next season that’s the problem. I’m not convinced yet, hopefully one emerges.

Yeah the Bolts ran Hedman/McDonagh/Sergachev down the left side with pretty mediocre partners to two Cups.

Sascha Boumedienne - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Sascha Boumedienne, 2007-01-17 Oulu, FIN Sweden. Most recently in the NCAA with Boston Univ.. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

What are your thoughts on this kid? Pretty similar D-1 stats to Levshunov in the USHL.

 

[Juxtaposer]

NJ is apparently open to trading #10? They want some help right now though which I don't really think we could give.

We don’t have anything they would really help them worth 10th overall. Unless they really, really like Ferraro. Or if Grier truly wants to purge every non-Grier guy from the org and offers up Eklund.

I still think a trade-down situation (10 for 14+42) is somewhat realistic. NJ doesn’t have a 2nd and might want to replenish their prospect pool depth. It’s not like they really need another super high-end young player.

 

[boredatwork]

Obviously this is just a package of hitting highlights which how can you not love?. Any concern that he is over aggressive sometimes chasing a big hit that is unnecessary which puts him out of position?

That's a major concern raised by several scouts. But, if he does hit his ceiling, you end up with a mean as **** defenseman who other players might legitimately fear. His scouting report reads that he wants to inflict pain. He's enticing for sure. Weirdly gives me Duncan Siemens vibes.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Yeah the Bolts ran Hedman/McDonagh/Sergachev down the left side with pretty mediocre partners to two Cups.

Sascha Boumedienne - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Sascha Boumedienne, 2007-01-17 Oulu, FIN Sweden. Most recently in the NCAA with Boston Univ.. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

What are your thoughts on this kid? Pretty similar D-1 stats to Levshunov in the USHL.

Never seen him before but he definitely profiles like a potential top-15 pick. Probably the most interesting D to watch for next year alongside Hensler, Schaefer, and Trethaway.

 

[one2gamble]

We don’t have anything they would really help them worth 10th overall. Unless they really, really like Ferraro. Or if Grier truly wants to purge every non-Grier guy from the org and offers up Eklund.

I still think a trade-down situation (10 for 14+42) is somewhat realistic. NJ doesn’t have a 2nd and might want to replenish their prospect pool depth. It’s not like they really need another super high-end young player.

that seems like proper value, would you do that?

 

[Juxtaposer]

Obviously this is just a package of hitting highlights which how can you not love?. Any concern that he is over aggressive sometimes chasing a big hit that is unnecessary which puts him out of position?

Every big hitter takes themselves out of position, it’s a hazard of the job. Best you can do is mitigate it by picking your spots and having a partner who can skate well and cover you. If he was a righty, he might make a good partner for Mukhamadullin, actually.

Having a modern day Dougie Murray would be pretty fun, I will admit.

that seems like proper value, would you do that?

Definitely. Guarantees we don’t have to ‘settle’ for someone like Eiserman or Helenius, the latter of which I would begrudgingly take at 14. You almost certainly have a shot at one of the D there.

 

[Alaskanice]

Every big hitter takes themselves out of position, it’s a hazard of the job. Best you can do is mitigate it by picking your spots and having a partner who can skate well and cover you. If he was a righty, he might make a good partner for Mukhamadullin, actually.

Having a modern day Dougie Murray would be pretty fun, I will admit.


Definitely. Guarantees we don’t have to ‘settle’ for someone like Eiserman or Helenius, the latter of which I would begrudgingly take at 14. You almost certainly have a shot at one of the D there.

Crankshaft!!!

 

[TealManV]

I still think a trade-down situation (10 for 14+42) is somewhat realistic. NJ doesn’t have a 2nd and might want to replenish their prospect pool depth. It’s not like they really need another super high-end young player.

I believe this is the right way to approach it.

NJD can still use #14 to acquire a win now player (starting goalie or top 4 d) while using #42 to add a solid prospect OR in another transaction.

 

[STL Shark]

Yeah the Bolts ran Hedman/McDonagh/Sergachev down the left side with pretty mediocre partners to two Cups.

Sascha Boumedienne - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Sascha Boumedienne, 2007-01-17 Oulu, FIN Sweden. Most recently in the NCAA with Boston Univ.. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

What are your thoughts on this kid? Pretty similar D-1 stats to Levshunov in the USHL.

Thing is, we might be lucky to have a McDonagh caliber D-Man in Muk and assuredly don't have anything resembling Hedman. I don't think you necessarily need a super high end #1, but that makes it to where you then need a solid group effort.

Think the solid group effort is more attainable than a true #1 (particularly given I feel like we have a good 3, 5, and 6 right now that are young and profile well in Muk and then Thrun/Emberson). I think Thrun-Emberson can become a Cup caliber team's bottom pairing and would love to get them playing together this season to work on chemistry. Both are solid size, solid skaters, and move the puck well enough to not consistently be hemmed in their own zone (particularly if they get easier matchups as a 3rd pairing). Neither should command massive pay days anytime soon either.

Finding a top pairing and a partner for Muk on the second pairing is the issue right now and having Ferraro doesn't really help that. I'd expect Ferraro to be around this year, but will be a likely mover (barring a massive improvement in play this season) next offseason after Muk has spent a year in the NHL and can play a bigger role (and you've had a chance to find an upgrade in some form or fashion in UFA/Trade).

 

[Patty Ice]

I believe this is the right way to approach it.

NJD can still use #14 to acquire a win now player (starting goalie or top 4 d) while using #42 to add a solid prospect OR in another transaction.

It'd actually be smart of them to trade for 14 and 42. They can still use the 14th overall to get the immediate help they covet without a drop off in talent while still owning a top 50 pick.

 

[Patty Ice]

With regards to Yakemchuk dropping to 14, the only way I would hesitate is if MBN is still available. He's a great fit for the team and, while the D prospect pool is more of a concern, he is up there with Celebrini in NHL readiness and was made for Smith's wing.

Ultimately though, I'm going Yak 10 outta 10 times.

 

[Hodge]

Thing is, we might be lucky to have a McDonagh caliber D-Man in Muk and assuredly don't have anything resembling Hedman. I don't think you necessarily need a super high end #1, but that makes it to where you then need a solid group effort.

Think the solid group effort is more attainable than a true #1 (particularly given I feel like we have a good 3, 5, and 6 right now that are young and profile well in Muk and then Thrun/Emberson). I think Thrun-Emberson can become a Cup caliber team's bottom pairing and would love to get them playing together this season to work on chemistry. Both are solid size, solid skaters, and move the puck well enough to not consistently be hemmed in their own zone (particularly if they get easier matchups as a 3rd pairing). Neither should command massive pay days anytime soon either.

Finding a top pairing and a partner for Muk on the second pairing is the issue right now and having Ferraro doesn't really help that. I'd expect Ferraro to be around this year, but will be a likely mover (barring a massive improvement in play this season) next offseason after Muk has spent a year in the NHL and can play a bigger role (and you've had a chance to find an upgrade in some form or fashion in UFA/Trade).

The hope would be that our 2025 1st is the "Hedman" equivalent although obviously extremely unlikely we draft someone that good.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Not to change the subject, but I want to address one thing that’s kinda been bothering me. So, if Celebrini’s player comp is Crosby, some people say Toews, then how is Celebrini not considered “Generational”? Am I getting the player comps twisted up? We haven’t even officially drafted the guy and I’m already defending him! Can’t wait for him and Smith.

 

[Cas]

Not to change the subject, but I want to address one thing that’s kinda been bothering me. So, if Celebrini’s player comp is Crosby, some people say Toews, then how is Celebrini not considered “Generational”? Am I getting the player comps twisted up? We haven’t even officially drafted the guy and I’m already defending him! Can’t wait for him and Smith.

It's based on play style, not quality.

Anyone who actually expects Celebrini to live up to comparisons to Crosby, one of the absolutely greatest players in the history of the sport, is being far too optimistic.

The word "generational" is also utterly meaningless.

 

[Gecklund]

Not to change the subject, but I want to address one thing that’s kinda been bothering me. So, if Celebrini’s player comp is Crosby, some people say Toews, then how is Celebrini not considered “Generational”? Am I getting the player comps twisted up? We haven’t even officially drafted the guy and I’m already defending him! Can’t wait for him and Smith.

Comps are play style not players level. We can easily say that Celebrini is kind of like a prime Pageau too. Sounds much worse. Most sites use these big name players because more people have seen them play.

 

[Cas]

Comps are play style not players level. We can easily say that Celebrini is kind of like a prime Pageau too. Sounds much worse. Most sites use these big name players because more people have seen them play.

It's also for the hype train that sells magazines/subscriptions/ads.

Nobody is buying a magazine hyping up the next Pageau.

 

[NiWa]

@Juxtaposer A few more if you don't mind.

Chernyshov, Jiricek
Maybe three of the Ds that could still be there at our seconds. (E.g. Badinka, Brunicke, Elick, Shuravin,Freij), whoever you like best atm.

 

[Gecklund]

@Juxtaposer A few more if you don't mind.

Chernyshov, Jiricek
Maybe three of the Ds that could still be there at our seconds. (E.g. Badinka, Brunicke, Elick, Shuravin,Freij), whoever you like best atm.

Chernyshov: very good offensive winger, workhorse type winger, no elite skills but lots of good skills, good size, low ceiling but high floor

Jiricek: good two way D. I’m higher on his offensive game than most but definitely better defensively than offensively. Big injury concerns

Freij: one of my favorite d prospects outside of the big 6. Great offensive D, fantastic skater, defensive concerns (that I feel are overblown)

Sahlin Wallenius: similar to Freij. Great offensive D, defensive concerns

Badinka: opposite of the last two D. Good defensively, lacking a bit offensively. Good skater and size

Brunicke: more two way than the last 3 D. Good offensively, good size, good skater, good with his stick, lacks physicality, kind of dumb at times

Elick: very little offensive game to speak of. Very good defensively though. Good skater and reminds me of prime Vlasic in some ways

 

[Juxtaposer]

Thing is, we might be lucky to have a McDonagh caliber D-Man in Muk and assuredly don't have anything resembling Hedman. I don't think you necessarily need a super high end #1, but that makes it to where you then need a solid group effort.

Think the solid group effort is more attainable than a true #1 (particularly given I feel like we have a good 3, 5, and 6 right now that are young and profile well in Muk and then Thrun/Emberson). I think Thrun-Emberson can become a Cup caliber team's bottom pairing and would love to get them playing together this season to work on chemistry. Both are solid size, solid skaters, and move the puck well enough to not consistently be hemmed in their own zone (particularly if they get easier matchups as a 3rd pairing). Neither should command massive pay days anytime soon either.

Finding a top pairing and a partner for Muk on the second pairing is the issue right now and having Ferraro doesn't really help that. I'd expect Ferraro to be around this year, but will be a likely mover (barring a massive improvement in play this season) next offseason after Muk has spent a year in the NHL and can play a bigger role (and you've had a chance to find an upgrade in some form or fashion in UFA/Trade).

Certainly, Mukhamadullin panning out is really important to our rebuild. For the bottom pairing, I think we can spend the next two years before a true playoff attempt “auditioning” guys for the bottom pair. Can Thrun improve, can Emberson stay healthy, can Ferraro rebound in a more appropriate role.

There’s a very interesting trend in hockey where I feel like the number of “true” #1D is way smaller than it used to be. It’s like, Hedman and Heiskanen are the only honest to goodness all-situations elite defensemen out there from my perspective. Guys like Makar, Hughes, Fox, Bouchard, Dobson, Josi, Slavin, etc. are all limited in some way, even though they can have elite impact on games.

What I think the league is trending towards specialist defensemen over generalist defensemen. The league used to be filled with guys like Chara, Lidstrom, Keith, Pronger, Niedermayer, Doughty, Weber, etc. and guys like Karlsson and Boyle were exceptions. Now, I feel like it’s flipped.

The new formula, IMO: 1 minute-munching guy who can eat up 25 minutes adequately (Ekblad, Nurse, Toews) but isn’t anything spectacular, 1 highly skilled offensive defenseman who can dominate offensive situations (Montour, Bouchard, Hughes, etc.), and one defensive specialist who can excel in high-leverage defensive situations (Forsling, Ekholm, Slavin). How well your team does depends on how well these players fill their roles (ie Trouba is the first player archetype but isn’t very good, so that hurts the Rangers a lot).

Mukhamadullin projects to me like the first archetype: competent in all situations but no world-beater, can eat up a big chunk of minutes and not hurt the team, has solid size and skating, but won’t be your go-to guy in any high-leverage situation. If he pans out, then you’re just looking for your offensive and defensive specialists. Is that Parekh/Yakemchuk and Hensler? Silayev and Trethaway? Only time will tell, but I think this league-wide trend is good for the Sharks’ future core projection, since we aren’t completely screwed if we can’t find an elite all-situations #1D. Just gotta find an elite offensive guy and an elite defensive guy, and fill in the gaps with solid depth guys via trade/UFA/late round picks/guys already in the org like Ferraro/Thrun/Emberson.

 

[Juxtaposer]

@Juxtaposer A few more if you don't mind.

Chernyshov, Jiricek
Maybe three of the Ds that could still be there at our seconds. (E.g. Badinka, Brunicke, Elick, Shuravin,Freij), whoever you like best atm.

Chernyshov: Ranked 19 by EP, a similar type of player to Brandsegg-Nygard but perhaps with less scoring upside. Average tools all-around, power-forward type of player. Scouts don’t seem to love him and think he’ll have to make some progress to project as a legit top-6 scorer.

Jiricek: EP isn’t a huge fan of him, they rank him 28th behind some guys like Elick and Brunicke. They don’t like his skating much and think his poor league play combined with his injury is concerning. They do expect him to be picked quite a bit higher though and acknowledge it’s completely possible that he is better than their projection. Personally, I don’t know about their evaluation, as they call his skating below average but his physicality high-end, and I don’t agree with either of those things. I think people are trying too hard to compare him to his brother when I don’t think they’re all that similar.

As for other defensemen, they give Elick (26), Brunicke (27), and Danford (30) first round grades. Their second round grades start with Emery at 31 (as in there’s a tier break between Danford and Emery) and have Badinka ad 35 and Freij at 37.

The write-ups read like Brunicke is a boom-bust home-run swing, whereas Elick, Danford, Emery, and Badinka have high floors as defensive NHLers in some capacity. I think all of those guys would be good picks at 33 and would love to walk away with one of them. They aren’t huge fans of Cole Hutson, interestingly, and rank him towards the end of the 2nd round.

Hope that answers your questions!

 

[coooldude]

Not to change the subject, but I want to address one thing that’s kinda been bothering me. So, if Celebrini’s player comp is Crosby, some people say Toews, then how is Celebrini not considered “Generational”? Am I getting the player comps twisted up? We haven’t even officially drafted the guy and I’m already defending him! Can’t wait for him and Smith.

It's based on play style, not quality.

Anyone who actually expects Celebrini to live up to comparisons to Crosby, one of the absolutely greatest players in the history of the sport, is being far too optimistic.

The word "generational" is also utterly meaningless.

I think "generational" is not super meaningful, but I don't think it's totally meaningless. At our current rate of usage, however, it basically means "once in every 5 years" level of player, or someone who very possibly could be projected to win an MVP at some point. That list is short but not as short as a true "generational" player list.

Ovie, Malkin, Crosby, McJesus, Bedard all drafted as "generational" and all of them lived up to the hype (not Bedard yet).

Celebrini is being talked about as "borderline generational" or "Not quite Bedard's level, but almost" and that is also why people are comping Crosby and not someone with lesser accomplishments. In the absolute greatest world possible, Celebrini might have years that look like Crosby years, both stylistically and in impact. This is not to say he will be Crosby nor to say he will but it together for enough of a career to be anywhere near Crosby.

 

[coooldude]

Certainly, Mukhamadullin panning out is really important to our rebuild. For the bottom pairing, I think we can spend the next two years before a true playoff attempt “auditioning” guys for the bottom pair. Can Thrun improve, can Emberson stay healthy, can Ferraro rebound in a more appropriate role.

There’s a very interesting trend in hockey where I feel like the number of “true” #1D is way smaller than it used to be. It’s like, Hedman and Heiskanen are the only honest to goodness all-situations elite defensemen out there from my perspective. Guys like Makar, Hughes, Fox, Bouchard, Dobson, Josi, Slavin, etc. are all limited in some way, even though they can have elite impact on games.

What I think the league is trending towards specialist defensemen over generalist defensemen. The league used to be filled with guys like Chara, Lidstrom, Keith, Pronger, Niedermayer, Doughty, Weber, etc. and guys like Karlsson and Boyle were exceptions. Now, I feel like it’s flipped.

The new formula, IMO: 1 minute-munching guy who can eat up 25 minutes adequately (Ekblad, Nurse, Toews) but isn’t anything spectacular, 1 highly skilled offensive defenseman who can dominate offensive situations (Montour, Bouchard, Hughes, etc.), and one defensive specialist who can excel in high-leverage defensive situations (Forsling, Ekholm, Slavin). How well your team does depends on how well these players fill their roles (ie Trouba is the first player archetype but isn’t very good, so that hurts the Rangers a lot).

Mukhamadullin projects to me like the first archetype: competent in all situations but no world-beater, can eat up a big chunk of minutes and not hurt the team, has solid size and skating, but won’t be your go-to guy in any high-leverage situation. If he pans out, then you’re just looking for your offensive and defensive specialists. Is that Parekh/Yakemchuk and Hensler? Silayev and Trethaway? Only time will tell, but I think this league-wide trend is good for the Sharks’ future core projection, since we aren’t completely screwed if we can’t find an elite all-situations #1D. Just gotta find an elite offensive guy and an elite defensive guy, and fill in the gaps with solid depth guys via trade/UFA/late round picks/guys already in the org like Ferraro/Thrun/Emberson.

These are really interesting thoughts. I wonder what's behind the shift, if it's true (and it feels right). Is it that big, skilled players with size used to always be put on D, and now you see big players trying to be forwards, therefore fewer guys with size and skill make it through as D? Is it that the general skill level was lower in the past, so players that are now simply "minute munchers" used to be good enough to be true #1's? Wonder how you'd try to validate this hypothesis (size x points x blocks/hits x TOI on D over time, zone starts splits, and distribution of all those stats across teams, maybe).

I would quibble on Makar, who I think is able to eat up 25 minutes and be lethal doing so, but otherwise it's an interesting trend.

 

[Juxtaposer]

These are really interesting thoughts. I wonder what's behind the shift, if it's true (and it feels right). Is it that big, skilled players with size used to always be put on D, and now you see big players trying to be forwards, therefore fewer guys with size and skill make it through as D? Is it that the general skill level was lower in the past, so players that are now simply "minute munchers" used to be good enough to be true #1's? Wonder how you'd try to validate this hypothesis (size x points x blocks/hits x TOI on D over time, zone starts splits, and distribution of all those stats across teams, maybe).

I would quibble on Makar, who I think is able to eat up 25 minutes and be lethal doing so, but otherwise it's an interesting trend.

Yeah, I considered adding Makar and McAvoy to the Hedman/Heiskanen group, so that’s fair. Still, not a lot of guys.

I’d be really interested if there was a statistical methodology that could validate my hypothesis, but I’m not nearly data-savvy enough to do it myself. My vague and unsatisfying underlying theory is that hockey is cyclical and eras will fluctuate between offensively-inclined (now) and defensively/goaltender-oriented (dead puck era). Rule changes have something to do with that, I think. I also think that young kids are influenced by the type of player who is celebrated by the league when they’re growing up. Look how many players describe themselves as Jack Hughes these days or aspire to be like him. I do think someone like McDavid influenced young players to prioritize offense. Karlsson definitely influenced the Makars and Hughes types. Whether or not that’s a higher level of “skill”, as you said, I couldn’t say.

I used to believe that the ideal defense was an elite two-way #1D (Chara, Doughty, Lidstrom, Keith) and a bunch of good middle pairing defensemen. Now, I think it might be a #2D with elite offense, a #2D with high-end defense, and a high-end #3D generalist, plus some solid #4-5 guys.