Prospect Info: All-Purpose 2024 Draft Thread & Celebrini discussion (also the 14th pick and whatever else is draft related)

[coooldude]

As one of our resident Solberg believers, I upgraded to EP premium and immediately read his profile. the NHL scout buzz is strong here - "the Defense Sennecke" as the strongest riser since Jan and multiple scouts saying he's top 20. Contrast with Jan 2024 when one scout said "if you pick this guy in the first round, you might as well just burn your pick."

The EP scout evaluations from Worlds basically described them turning into believers in his upside because he flashed significantly improved confidence and ability in controlled breakouts, controlled plays in general, and some deception and threat in the O zone. He made some bonehead plays, but the consensus from Cam and David seemed to be "with the right development, a top 4 D is there, perhaps a solid partner to a #1D." There's risk there, but to me, showing out over multiple games at an NHL-level tournament is just as impressive as what other prospects did over the year in the NCAA or CHL.

I think no matter what, we're getting a good player at 14. The only player I'd worry about is Eiserman because there's no plan B. Any of (my preference order) MBN, Solberg, Sennecke, Helenius, or the lesser chance at players like Yak, Iggy, or Catton, will be a super exciting pick behind Celebrini. #33 and 42 will just be gravy (or used in a trade up to 10???)

 

[Patty Ice]

I used to believe that the ideal defense was an elite two-way #1D (Chara, Doughty, Lidstrom, Keith) and a bunch of good middle pairing defensemen. Now, I think it might be a #2D with elite offense, a #2D with high-end defense, and a high-end #3D generalist, plus some solid #4-5 guys.

I am very interested in seeing what we have in Cagnoni. While he may not be elite offensively at the NHL level (his shot holds him back), he is strong on his skates, great in transition, and a great passer. I think he can and should put up points in the NHL despite being sub 5'10. But his height isn't a concern for me since his built like a thicc boi and can always get stronger.

That's why I would like to see him in the AHL this year. It will give us a better look at what he could be in the NHL rather than him dominating another year in juniors. The Cuda need the help anyways.

Draft Badinka at 33 and I think that could be a solid 2nd pairing.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

I wanted to look at some trade back scenarios. Using the Perri pick value calculator here are a couple I found:

Chicago
14 + 42 + 85 → 18 + 34 + 50
Sharks +0.468 (~5th rounder)

Nashville
14 → 22 + 53 + 55
Nashville +0.875 (~4th rounder)

Combined Chicago + Nashville
Do the Chicago trade
Then with Nashville: 18 → 22 + 53
Sharks +0.429 (~5th rounder)

Sharks picks within the top 100 after doing the combined approach (trading out 14 + 42 + 85):
1, 22, 32, 34, 50, 53

 

[Juxtaposer]

I am very interested in seeing what we have in Cagnoni. While he may not be elite offensively at the NHL level (his shot holds him back), he is strong on his skates, great in transition, and a great passer. I think he can and should put up points in the NHL despite being sub 5'10. But his height isn't a concern for me since his built like a thicc boi and can always get stronger.

That's why I would like to see him in the AHL this year. It will give us a better look at what he could be in the NHL rather than him dominating another year in juniors. The Cuda need the help anyways.

Draft Badinka at 33 and I think that could be a solid 2nd pairing.

With due respect to Cagnoni, he would have to improve and insane amount to be an impact defenseman at the NHL level. I like the pick and I’m rooting for him, but as far as projecting a future roster he isn’t even a consideration. If he does make those drastic steps forward then he’s a pleasant surprise, but he has no impact on team-building and future planning.

 

[Alaskanice]

With due respect to Cagnoni, he would have to improve and insane amount to be an impact defenseman at the NHL level. I like the pick and I’m rooting for him, but as far as projecting a future roster he isn’t even a consideration. If he does make those drastic steps forward then he’s a pleasant surprise, but he has no impact on team-building and future planning.

Not to rain on your parade but I have no doubt, many similar thoughts were expressed about a certain player that donned a teal sweater and may have retired today. Joe Pavelski.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Not to rain on your parade but I have no doubt, many similar thoughts were expressed about a certain player that donned a teal sweater and may have retired today. Joe Pavelski.

Indeed, Pavelski beat literally the longest odds in NHL history to become a star NHL player. Cagnoni will have to do the same. That’s why I didn’t say “he’s guaranteed to fail”, but rather “we shouldn’t count on him to beat those extremely long odds”.

Not pencilling Cagnoni into a lineup doesn’t mean I’m discounting him, it means I’m being realistic. You can interpret it in whatever way makes you feel better about yourself.

 

[Patty Ice]

Indeed, Pavelski beat literally the longest odds in NHL history to become a star NHL player. Cagnoni will have to do the same. That’s why I didn’t say “he’s guaranteed to fail”, but rather “we shouldn’t count on him to beat those extremely long odds”.

Not pencilling Cagnoni into a lineup doesn’t mean I’m discounting him, it means I’m being realistic. You can interpret it in whatever way makes you feel better about yourself.

And neither am I pencilling in Cagnoni. That is why I am interested in seeing how he does in the AHL. It will give us a gauge if he is someone we should start considering.

 

[Alaskanice]

Indeed, Pavelski beat literally the longest odds in NHL history to become a star NHL player. Cagnoni will have to do the same. That’s why I didn’t say “he’s guaranteed to fail”, but rather “we shouldn’t count on him to beat those extremely long odds”.

Not pencilling Cagnoni into a lineup doesn’t mean I’m discounting him, it means I’m being realistic. You can interpret it in whatever way makes you feel better about yourself.

I don’t know the kid. I can’t make determinations, realistic or not. I’m just going to cheer him on and hope he succeeds.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I don’t know the kid. I can’t make determinations, realistic or not. I’m just going to cheer him on and hope he succeeds.

No one can know the future. But it is possible to watch the player, look around the league, take note of how many impact NHLers there are that are his size and play his style of hockey (none), and reach a conclusion about what it would take for him to be an impact NHLer.

You have constantly maintained that because one cannot predict the future and very technically anything can happen, it is worthless to discuss anything related to the future. Really weird sentiment to have on a Discussion Forum.

 

[Alaskanice]

No one can know the future. But it is possible to watch the player, look around the league, take note of how many impact NHLers there are that are his size and play his style of hockey (none), and reach a conclusion about what it would take for him to be an impact NHLer.

You have constantly maintained that because one cannot predict the future and very technically anything can happen, it is worthless to discuss anything related to the future. Really weird sentiment to have on a Discussion Forum.

Equally worthless to determine how a player will play.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Solberg highlights. @Kcoyote3, is this a product of the league or is he just a really strong kid?

He's a really strong kid. For a comp maybe someone like Brayden McNabb in awhile. He has some defensive deficiencies though. He often isn't reading the play and is just reading the man and whether he can hit him or not. He has quick retrievals when he gets the puck. I like him but he's got to figure out if what he's doing is actually going to work in the NHL or learn to adapt. His retrievals are the one thing that I think he's going to lean on as he develops. They're really good.

His play at worlds was a significant improvement from his U20 play though when you account for the step up in competition. He's figuring it out quickly and a team is going to swing on him super early.

 

[Bizz]

honestly I think Cagnoni is more of a Niklas Lidstrom than a Bobby Orr, but if he turns out to be a Raymond Bourque I'd be okay with that too.

 

[boredatwork]

He's a really strong kid. For a comp maybe someone like Brayden McNabb in awhile. He has some defensive deficiencies though. He often isn't reading the play and is just reading the man and whether he can hit him or not. He has quick retrievals when he gets the puck. I like him but he's got to figure out if what he's doing is actually going to work in the NHL or learn to adapt. His retrievals are the one thing that I think he's going to lean on as he develops. They're really good.

His play at worlds was a significant improvement from his U20 play though when you account for the step up in competition. He's figuring it out quickly and a team is going to swing on him super early.

Would you value Solberg enough to use the 14th pick or is the gap between him and other defensive dmen projected to go late first/early second not wide enough to justify said pick? For fun, let’s say MBN is still on the board as well as others seem to like him at 14.

 

[Gecklund]

Equally worthless to determine how a player will play.

So what’s the point in talking about anything?

 

[DG93]

So what’s the point in talking about anything?

There is no point, all Sharks fans should just commit seppuku

 

[jarr92]

If Cagnoni becomes a better version of Addison I'd call that a success.

 

[coooldude]

If Cagnoni becomes a better version of Addison I'd call that a success.

I think that would be a massive success. As it is, he has to prove he can even be Addison. Players picked #110-130 (Cagnoni was 123rd) average around 80 total NHL games played in their career. Addison is already at 152 games / 50 points. He was picked 53rd overall.

Source - draft pick stats and expectations

 

[Alaskanice]

I think that would be a massive success. As it is, he has to prove he can even be Addison. Players picked #110-130 (Cagnoni was 123rd) average around 80 total NHL games played in their career. Addison is already at 152 games / 50 points. He was picked 53rd overall.

Source - draft pick stats and expectations

I agree it would be a massive success. Here’s hoping.

 

[Hangemhigh]

There is no point, all Sharks fans should just commit seppuku

Just like many Sharks fans, Devin agrees with you.

 

[Jargon]

I recognize how big of a leap it would take for Cagnoni to make the NHL but I like his personality and I like that every time he’s been counted out he’s proven people wrong, so here’s to him proving people wrong.

All that said, I think it’s much safer to pencil in Havelid on our third pairing than Cagnoni, and even him I’m not totally sure.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

It sounds to me like Solberg could be a Jacob Trouba or he might end up being Nikita Okhotiuk, not sure if we should take him at 14.

But he could also become our very own Douglas Murray!!

 

[Hodge]

I recognize how big of a leap it would take for Cagnoni to make the NHL but I like his personality and I like that every time he’s been counted out he’s proven people wrong, so here’s to him proving people wrong.

All that said, I think it’s much safer to pencil in Havelid on our third pairing than Cagnoni, and even him I’m not totally sure.

I'm not totally sure Havelid even gets signed to an ELC.

 

[Bizz]

It sounds to me like Solberg could be a Jacob Trouba or he might end up being Nikita Okhotiuk, not sure if we should take him at 14.

If he's there at 33, then fine. Last thing we need to be doing is gambling on a reach.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I recognize how big of a leap it would take for Cagnoni to make the NHL but I like his personality and I like that every time he’s been counted out he’s proven people wrong, so here’s to him proving people wrong.

All that said, I think it’s much safer to pencil in Havelid on our third pairing than Cagnoni, and even him I’m not totally sure.

Maybe it's safer, but the only young defenseman I'd feel comfortable penciling into a future lineup is Mukhamadullin (Emberson as well, but he isn't really "young" anymore).

 

[LilLeeroy]

No one can know the future. But it is possible to watch the player, look around the league, take note of how many impact NHLers there are that are his size and play his style of hockey (none), and reach a conclusion about what it would take for him to be an impact NHLer.

You have constantly maintained that because one cannot predict the future and very technically anything can happen, it is worthless to discuss anything related to the future. Really weird sentiment to have on a Discussion Forum.

I mean both Zellweger and Hutson looked really good in their limited time last season. Those are two guys who profiled similarly to Cagnoni as prospects in recent history.