Player Discussion Alexis Lafreniere

[PANARIN BREAD FAN]

brady tkachuk in his first 2 seasons in the league had over 40 pts each. was he already considered a bust by ottawa back then? i ask this because as this leads to my 2nd question: was that a myth of them offering tkachuk along with their 3OA for our 1OA?

 

[LokiDog]

brady tkachuk in his first 2 seasons in the league had over 40 pts each. was he already considered a bust by ottawa back then? i ask this because as this leads to my 2nd question: was that a myth of them offering tkachuk along with their 3OA for our 1OA?

I have no idea if that offer existed or not, but if it did, even back then, we were dumb not to take it. But regardless, no one knew how good Stutzle and Tkachuk would quickly become, so it’s a moot point now that hindsight exists. However, whether that rumor is true or not, it IS indicative of how high the Laf hype was, which also feeds into why it’s so unacceptable for most of us that he just blows harder than Vesuvius.

 

[Raspewtin]

brady tkachuk in his first two years was one of the most physical and heavy shooting forwards in the league with several fights against legit tough guys to boot. if lafreniere did half of what tkachuk did those years i would 100% be significantly more patient with him.

 

[RangersFan1994]

I saw this on Facebook in one of the Rangers groups. People can be cruel.

 

[huerter]

Blame power rankings

1a. Donk media members
1b. Donk fans
3. Gorton
4. The Stalker (if you don't know, don't ask...just hide the kids and wives)
5. Whoever put a left handed stick in his crib
6. Trouba
7. Gaborik

 

[Row I Goon]

Who we kidding? The fat lady hasn’t just sung on Laf, she’s already walked off-stage, gotten changed, removed her makeup and is on the subway home.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

Every single person saying “he’s already a middle six winger” by virtue of putting up 35 points is seriously overvaluing those points. The NHL isn’t a vacuum. There are guys who could put up 35 points in a middle six role who are on waivers every year. Denis Gurianov today is an example.

You have to DO something and have a role to have a successful career if you’re a 40 point player. Laf has no role. He does nothing. He isn’t a forechecking machine. He isn’t a speedster who adds an element to keep opponents on their toes. He is physical, but he’s not a big punishing guy who makes an impact. Nor is he a relentless little bastard who uses his motor and tenacity to make an impact. He isn’t a back checker at all. He’s atrocious defensively so not a shutdown or matchup guy. He doesn’t have a cannon shot where you load him up for a one-timer whenever you can. He’s just there.

Someone else said it and it’s very accurate - he’s Ales Kotalik without the shot. Kotalik was a 35-45 point player with one outlier season of 62 points who was out of the league within 8 years of his debut. If you can’t skate, can’t defend, don’t put constant pressure on the other team with your motor, don’t drive play, etc. it doesn’t matter that you can put up 35-40 points. You’re not long for the league.

Objectively Gurianov can fly and has more skill than Radek Faksa or Zemgus Girgensons. In 2020-21, at 22 years old, Gurianov put up 30 points 55 games, which is better than .5 points per game (45 point pace) and better than anything Laf has done so far. Today he’s on waivers. Faksa has never had more than 33 points in a season but is going into his 9th season with one team. Girgensons has hit 30 points on the nose ONCE and is going into his 10th season with the same team. Because they both actually BRING more than just the total number of points you guys keep alluding to when saying Laf is a “middle six player at worst” and they have roles that provide value to their clubs. Goodrow has a career high of 33 points. He’s looking like he will have a more successful and longer career because he DOES more than what those point totals represent. If we judged him on paper, Laf is better, right? Younger and out scoring him? But we don’t judge on paper, and Laf can’t even carry Goodrow’s jock, let alone a player like Sutzle or Hughes or MacKinnon, whom he was supposed to be as good/better than.

So middle six at worst? No. Laf is playing his way out of the league at worst. At BEST he is a middle six winger who needs to improve his impact if he wants to stay there. You’re not a middle six or top line or whatever player JUST by virtue of the point column on paper. HOW you play and arrive at those points and what else you contribute MATTERS. Laf does nothing. If points were all that matters PA Parenteau would have been a “top six” or even “first line” winger. He had 67 points one year and averaged about 50 per 82. He fizzled out of the league and finished his career in the KHL and is essentially a forgotten nobody, because despite whatever points he produced his game was super flawed and the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze. Laf’s juice isn’t worth the squeeze. If we’re getting 35-40 points and NO defense, no playmaking, no forechecking, no backchecking at 2.5M from a guy who could theoretically bring back a mid 1st rounder, I would certainly argue that we could get 35-40 points and speed and forechecking by simply claiming Gurianov, putting him in Laf’s slot and getting that mid-1st for Laf. On ice results for us will be almost indistinguishable - the speed might actually be welcomed - and we add another asset to the war chest, maybe to spend on a need down the road.

If Laf can’t contribute anything aside from the points you guys keep hanging your hats on, than his worth is extremely minimal and eventually we will see that when he’s in Gurianov’s place in another 2-3 years and we’re all bemoaning how Drury didn’t trade him while he was still worth something. He’s trending to be a Kotalik, Gurianov or Parenteau and not a Goodrow, Faksa or Girgensons. Funny thing is Goodrow, Faksa and Girgensons have had better careers than Kotalik, Gurianov and Parenteau despite never producing near as much. The guys who brought some offense but nothing else all fizzled out as nothings. The guys who could impact a game despite not being big scorers stick around. Because they actually provide something aside from the points. Think Hagelin.

If I had to make a wager on my son’s safety or education or something today, I would wager Laf is much, much closer to being a reclamation project who bounces around the league a bit and is gone by 30 than he is to being a 60+ point player.

This is absolutely true. He'll have to develop his niche, not dissimilar to what Jimmy Vesey has been able to do, if he is not able to massively improve his offensive impact.

 

[Daves a mess]

Who we kidding? The fat lady hasn’t just sung on Laf, she’s already walked off-stage, gotten changed, removed her makeup and is on the subway home.

The fat lady IS Laf.

He's a chunkier Jimmy Vesey with a beard and a hyphen.

 

[Vitto79]

So not starting on RW? Has
Cuylee played RW at all ?

 

[Profet]

Ah yes. Let’s trade the boat for a mystery box. It could even be another boat.

When the boat is a dinghy... But you can sell it for a speed boat.. yes... Yes you do it.

Usually when you go through a rebuild you draft at least one star player before packing it in and calling it a success.

But hockey is different here.

 

[NickyFotiu]

So not starting on RW? Has
Cuylee played RW at all ?

Yes he has played RW. Switching sides is not switching from offense to defense. Its not nearly the big deal some make it to be. Once you cross the blue line sides are basically irrelevant. The game isnt played in straight lines.

 

[Profet]

Yes he has played RW. Switching sides is not switching from offense to defense. Its not nearly the big deal some make it to be. Once you cross the blue line sides are basically irrelevant. The game isnt played in straight lines.

Funny enough... Getting through the neutral zone and crossing the blue line is this team's biggest issue.

 

[TGWL]

brady tkachuk in his first 2 seasons in the league had over 40 pts each. was he already considered a bust by ottawa back then? i ask this because as this leads to my 2nd question: was that a myth of them offering tkachuk along with their 3OA for our 1OA?

Brady paced for 52 points and 25 goals season 1.
Brady paced for 51 points and 24 goals season 2.
I don't think he was considered a bust. Powerplay helps but he was also good on that spot, while being physical player all over the ice creating puck separation from players.

 

[Mandar]

Embarrassing

Please elaborate

 

[Savant]

brady tkachuk in his first 2 seasons in the league had over 40 pts each. was he already considered a bust by ottawa back then? i ask this because as this leads to my 2nd question: was that a myth of them offering tkachuk along with their 3OA for our 1OA?

It’s not real

 

[effen]

What is with the mean girls schtick

 

[bhamill]

Brady paced for 52 points and 25 goals season 1.
Brady paced for 51 points and 24 goals season 2.
I don't think he was considered a bust. Powerplay helps but he was also good on that spot, while being physical player all over the ice creating puck separation from players.

You are correct. Brady was NEVER considered a bust. Great pick from the get go.

 

[DanielBrassard]

The fat lady IS Laf.

He's a chunkier Jimmy Vesey with a beard and a hyphen

please dont insult the sickest in the league by comparing Lafreniere to him.

 

[IDvsEGO]

When the boat is a dinghy... But you can sell it for a speed boat.. yes... Yes you do it.

Usually when you go through a rebuild you draft at least one star player before packing it in and calling it a success.

But hockey is different here.

See this is the argument that loses me.
Laf is a middle 6, getting less than middle 6 money.
You're getting a "shot" at a player better than laf. Not a guarantee. You move Laf its going to be for a middle round first and maybe an A prospect. And that A prospect isn't going to immediately fit into an NHL roster, let alone our NHL Roster.

If laf was asking for 8x8, ditch him.
He's at 2.325, he put up 40 points.

Let me show you some players who scored 39ish points last season and their cap hits.

Blake Coleman 38 points - $4.9 million cap hit
Joel Farabee 39 points - $5.0 million cap hit
Alexander Wennberg 39 points - $4.5 million cap hit
Anthony Beauvillier 40 points - $4.1 million cap hit

laf put up the same amount of points, and if he has the exact same year, he's still out producing his cap hit.

 

[CLW]

See this is the argument that loses me.
Laf is a middle 6, getting less than middle 6 money.
You're getting a "shot" at a player better than laf. Not a guarantee. You move Laf its going to be for a middle round first and maybe an A prospect. And that A prospect isn't going to immediately fit into an NHL roster, let alone our NHL Roster.

If laf was asking for 8x8, ditch him.
He's at 2.325, he put up 40 points.

Let me show you some players who scored 39ish points last season and their cap hits.

Blake Coleman 38 points - $4.9 million cap hit
Joel Farabee 39 points - $5.0 million cap hit
Alexander Wennberg 39 points - $4.5 million cap hit
Anthony Beauvillier 40 points - $4.1 million cap hit

laf put up the same amount of points, and if he has the exact same year, he's still out producing his cap hit.

If anyone had said in 2020 that at four years later we'd see Laffy as a player with a nice cap hit in the middle 6 there would have been an uprising. I get what you are saying but if the above is true we are definitely no longer talking about a 1OA caliber impact player.

The time to get Laffy going is right now. He's had what, 1 point in the last 18ish games - along with shit metrics? He is not 19 anymore. He's starting his 4th year as a pro. He had a poor camp. It doesn't take a genius to see where this is trending. If the alarm bells are not ringing right now when should they?

 

[PANARIN BREAD FAN]

See this is the argument that loses me.
Laf is a middle 6, getting less than middle 6 money.
You're getting a "shot" at a player better than laf. Not a guarantee. You move Laf its going to be for a middle round first and maybe an A prospect. And that A prospect isn't going to immediately fit into an NHL roster, let alone our NHL Roster.

If laf was asking for 8x8, ditch him.
He's at 2.325, he put up 40 points.

Let me show you some players who scored 39ish points last season and their cap hits.

Blake Coleman 38 points - $4.9 million cap hit
Joel Farabee 39 points - $5.0 million cap hit
Alexander Wennberg 39 points - $4.5 million cap hit
Anthony Beauvillier 40 points - $4.1 million cap hit

laf put up the same amount of points, and if he has the exact same year, he's still out producing his cap hit.

i'm glad you posted up these names. i ran across 3 of them last night as i was looking at some stats regarding EV pts. i didn't run across wennberg.

-blake coleman: 13 is on a projection to be this guy for the rest of his career. i would find this rather to be extremely unappealing and very appalling.

-farabee-on the right team i can see this guy having at least 2 seasons where he's a 70-80 pt scorer. many people shit on this guy but i think he has skills. real good skater, hands, creativity, and scoring ability.

-wennberg-lots of people shit on this guy too. they may regard him as a 1st round disappointment. on the games i've seen this guy as sometimes flashing some offensive ability who is a pain in the ass to deal with for the opposition.
fans of 13 you may want to take note that those 35 ev pts you have best not take that for granted. many players such as wennberg only hit that mark once. 13 may regress from that 35 number.

-Beauvillier - maybe he enjoys his best season playing 1st line in vancouver.

so yeah sure it's a win if laff repeats his numbers from last season at 2.325 but the question that you have to ask yourselves: was last season his peak? was that 35 EV pt total a byproduct of smoke and mirrors?

 

[IDvsEGO]

i'm glad you posted up these names. i ran across 3 of them last night as i was looking at some stats regarding EV pts. i didn't run across wennberg.

-blake coleman: 13 is on a projection to be this guy for the rest of his career. i would find this rather to be extremely unappealing and very appalling.

-farabee-on the right team i can see this guy having at least 2 seasons where he's a 70-80 pt scorer. many people shit on this guy but i think he has skills. real good skater, hands, creativity, and scoring ability.

-wennberg-lots of people shit on this guy too. they may regard him as a 1st round disappointment. on the games i've seen this guy as sometimes flashing some offensive ability who is a pain in the ass to deal with for the opposition.
fans of 13 you may want to take note that those 35 ev pts you have best not take that for granted. many players such as wennberg only hit that mark once. 13 may regress from that 35 number.

-Beauvillier - maybe he enjoys his best season playing 1st line in vancouver.

so yeah sure it's a win if laff repeats his numbers from last season at 2.325 but the question that you have to ask yourselves: was last season his peak? was that 35 EV pt total a byproduct of smoke and mirrors?

Also keep in mind that Laf did that in his d+3 while those others are significantly older and likely hit their ceiling.

 

[PANARIN BREAD FAN]

wennberg: age 23 / d3/ 36 ev

farabee: about 1 1/2 older than 13.

 

[ReddestRum]

Wennberg: 14OA / 29 / Current salary reflects his time and production in NHL

Now, if we're talking a good bang for your buck.

Lucas Raymond: 4OA / ELC / 102 points in 156 games

 

[CLW]

Looking at those arguments I guess we are now accepting that Lafrenière was severely overdrafted. If we are moving the goalposts next up is he actually going to become a useful middle six player or is that also a chimera.

Time will tell, but I hope he gets healthy and plays with gusto this season.