Player Discussion Alexis Lafreniere

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I think both people that think Laf will be a great player and people who have currently have some concerns should watch the 2000 NHL draft link I posted. It may give some insight for both camps of thinking before this new season starts.

Because coaches suck and make hockey worse
Yes if only the posters on this board could be our coach. We would have won 30 cups in the last 15 years!
 
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Just use your eyes, man. What does this kid do that stands out as "superstar" or even "potential superstar?" There ain't no amount of power play time in the world that's going to fix this. I've never in my life seen a 1OA pick who needed so much coddling, so many things to go his way before he showed a flash. It's his linemates, it's usage, it's PP time, it's being jerked up and down the lineup. Talent is undeniable, maybe if he showed anything 3(!!!!) NHL coaches would have used him differently.
Well I previously said "no matter how far off he LOOKS"... so it would seem I did use my eyes. But numbers are numbers. They are empirical and not subjective like the eye test. Their First few years of EV numbers aren't a chasm apart, and Mac scored 53 points in 82 games in his D+4... are you saying Laf getting 53 points this year, especially if he gets power play time (shifts closer to a min than 30 secs), is wildly impossible?
 
I think both people that think Laf will be a great player and people who have currently have some concerns should watch the 2000 NHL draft link I posted. It may give some insight for both camps of thinking before this new season starts.
Don't think most people are saying Laf will be guaranteed a great player at all, the camp is saying it's way TOO SOON to think he will never amount to anything more than a 3rd liner because he is still 21 and not all players develop at the same speed. Especially given his usage the last few years.

Just look at Kakko. I bet most the the bashers were bashing Kakko the last 2 years as well but we can all see that him, now going into a NHL season at 22 looks like he primed to breakout.
 
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I see a bunch of people pining for Edge here recently and the fact that he called out these issues with Laf pre draft. I miss the guy and really wish he was still here, but isn’t the beating that Laf has been taking since day one part of the reason Edge left?

I seem to remember him dismissing several of us that started voicing concern during that first season. Am I misremembering that?
 
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Yes if only the posters on this board could be our coach. We would have won 30 cups in the last 15 years!
aaf.png
 
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I'm rewatching the 2000 draft now. Despite having the pick for months the Rangers never told Laf that he would be the pick ahead of time. I did not remember that and find it a bit surprising. I totally understand keeping your options open but even right ahead of the draft?
 
Well I previously said "no matter how far off he LOOKS"... so it would seem I did use my eyes. But numbers are numbers. They are empirical and not subjective like the eye test. Their First few years of EV numbers aren't a chasm apart, and Mac scored 53 points in 82 games in his D+4... are you saying Laf getting 53 points this year, especially if he gets power play time (shifts closer to a min than 30 secs), is wildly impossible?
I personally find it unlikely and hope to be presently surprised.

That said, league wide scoring last year was about 15% higher than it was in 16-17. Those 53 points are now 60-61 points.
 
Nathan Mackinnon as an 18 year old rookie:



Has Lafreniere ever had a shift like MacKinnon did in that highlight video in his entire career? Please, enough with MacKinnon and Hughes being thrown around in this thread. Lafreniere is not and IMO never will be remotely comparable to these players or anyone else similar to them.
 
Well I previously said "no matter how far off he LOOKS"... so it would seem I did use my eyes. But numbers are numbers. They are empirical and not subjective like the eye test. Their First few years of EV numbers aren't a chasm apart, and Mac scored 53 points in 82 games in his D+4... are you saying Laf getting 53 points this year, especially if he gets power play time (shifts closer to a min than 30 secs), is wildly impossible?
I'm saying I watch the games and I barely notice he's out there. I've yet to see him take over a shift, much less a game, like a MacKinnon. I see a guy who can't create offense, can't back up defenders, can't distribute the puck, can't do much of anything right now. I don't care about points, I care about seeing any semblance of a 1OA pick. What good are a few extra PP points, at the expense of the team or more deserving players, when he's still basically the same guy in every facet of his game since he got here? And this is without factoring in all the rumors and innuendos about his attitude and commitment to his career.
 
I personally find it unlikely and hope to be presently surprised.

That said, league wide scoring last year was about 15% higher than it was in 16-17. Those 53 points are now 60-61 points.
MacKinnon also shot at a ridiculously low rate his first few years in the league unlike Lafreniere, it’s not a comparable situation. While out scoring him or being on par in a much lower scoring era.
 
Don't think most people are saying Laf will be guaranteed a great player at all, the camp is saying it's way TOO SOON to think he will never amount to anything more than a 3rd liner because he is still 21 and not all players develop at the same speed. Especially given his usage the last few years.

Just look at Kakko. I bet most the the bashers were bashing Kakko the last 2 years as well but we can all see that him, now going into a NHL season at 22 looks like he primed to breakout.
I was not saying most people were saying he would be great or most people are saying he would fail. Just acknowledging that there are multiple ways people are thinking regarding Laf.

In regards to your KK statement I was disappointed in KK after the 2021-22 season and optimistic about Laf whose effort had picked up in the second half of the 2021-22 season. Then last season (2022-23) it reversed for me because I felt like KK was giving more of an effort while I thought Laf's effort had declined.
 
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I see a bunch of people pining for Edge here recently and the fact that he called out these issues with Laf pre draft. I miss the guy and really wish he was still here, but isn’t the beating that Laf has been taking since day one part of the reason Edge left?

I seem to remember him dismissing several of us that started voicing concern during that first season. Am I misremembering that?
Did he delete his profile and leave? Was wondering where he went.

I vaguely recall what you are talking about
 
I personally find it unlikely and hope to be presently surprised.

That said, league wide scoring last year was about 15% higher than it was in 16-17. Those 53 points are now 60-61 points.

Nathan Mackinnon as an 18 year old rookie:



Has Lafreniere ever had a shift like MacKinnon did in that highlight video in his entire career? Please, enough with MacKinnon and Hughes being thrown around in this thread. Lafreniere is not and IMO never will be remotely comparable to these players or anyone else similar to them.


Mack also turned 18 in September before his rookie year. Laf turned 19 in October and the season began in January. Not only is scoring up a considerable amount but Laf is a full year older. Mack turned 21 going into his D+4 and Laf will be 22 for the entirety of his.
 
Watching this NHL draft Laf said his favorite player is Patrick Kane but the draft comparable was Miko Ratenan.
 
But you do understand that it isn’t just points, right? If he gets 53 this year and matches Mack’s D+4 he is still nowhere near the player Mack was even back then. You do understand that right? That Laf is zero semblance of a play driver? That it’s not just about point totals? And that the reason he has been yanked all over the lineup could have to do with him? That it’s just as possible that the reason Laf’s been “mistreated” is because he doesn’t listen to coaching and doesn’t show much work ethic? Speculating that the lack of a long leash is the cause of his struggles works in the opposite direction as well. His poor play very likely does have to do with it, and his poor play is also why it won’t matter if he manages to meet Mack’s D+4 - he isn’t half the player Mack was in his D+1 through 4, regardless of pure totals. People are so fixated on numbers instead of assessing HOW he plays. How he plays… sucks. If he puts up 45 points this year looking just like he did last year, he will still suck. Unless he materially changes the way he plays and the impact he makes, I really don’t think it will matter one way or the other if he ends up with 2-3 more or less goals, and 2-3 more or less assists. He is currently an ineffective and poor player.

Laf also was the oldest in his draft class so he started his career at 19. Nathan MacKinnon turned 18 two weeks before training camp. Laf was a full year older in his D+1 and will be a full year older for his D+4 this year.
Sure I understand that. But if he is getting the numbers he is getting the numbers. I still haven't tried to argue they are going to be EQUIVALENT, they aren't and in all likelihood will NOT be, does that make everyone happier? All I'm saying is their numbers aren't too far off. I'm not sure why that is so offensive.
And if Laf is getting 90 points in three years, (to pick a wild arbitrary number for the sake of argument) at age 24-25 are we still going to say he's a bust if he's not the same player as Mac?
 
I personally find it unlikely and hope to be presently surprised.

That said, league wide scoring last year was about 15% higher than it was in 16-17. Those 53 points are now 60-61 points.
Well technically I'm talking about the COMING year, which we can't quantify as being up or down comparatively, but I get your gist.
 
Nathan Mackinnon as an 18 year old rookie:



Has Lafreniere ever had a shift like MacKinnon did in that highlight video in his entire career? Please, enough with MacKinnon and Hughes being thrown around in this thread. Lafreniere is not and IMO never will be remotely comparable to these players or anyone else similar to them.

It's important to mention that while, yes, MacKinnon and Hughes and slowish starts in terms of raw production before becoming the players they are, you could still see it.

MacKinnon had some health issues and Hughes was like 160 pounds. Beyond that, it's tough adjusting to the NHL, but the flashes of talent were there.

As I mentioned before, Lafreniere isn't a player where I say "gee, he's talented but that one thing is going to hold him back." He's a player where I say "he's in the lineup today?"
 
But you do understand that it isn’t just points, right? If he gets 53 this year and matches Mack’s D+4 he is still nowhere near the player Mack was even back then. You do understand that right? That Laf is zero semblance of a play driver? That it’s not just about point totals? And that the reason he has been yanked all over the lineup could have to do with him? That it’s just as possible that the reason Laf’s been “mistreated” is because he doesn’t listen to coaching and doesn’t show much work ethic? Speculating that the lack of a long leash is the cause of his struggles works in the opposite direction as well. His poor play very likely does have to do with it, and his poor play is also why it won’t matter if he manages to meet Mack’s D+4 - he isn’t half the player Mack was in his D+1 through 4, regardless of pure totals. People are so fixated on numbers instead of assessing HOW he plays. How he plays… sucks. If he puts up 45 points this year looking just like he did last year, he will still suck. Unless he materially changes the way he plays and the impact he makes, I really don’t think it will matter one way or the other if he ends up with 2-3 more or less goals, and 2-3 more or less assists. He is currently an ineffective and poor player.

Laf also was the oldest in his draft class so he started his career at 19. Nathan MacKinnon turned 18 two weeks before training camp. Laf was a full year older in his D+1 and will be a full year older for his D+4 this year.

The lack of drive of play is undeniable at this point, as is the lack of identity. The real question now is where is the drive to improve? Where is the hunger? As machinehead pointed out this kid is on an extended pointless streak now going back to a sucky post season. I've always supported all the kids and want them to break through. I want for this kid to find himself on and off the ice and become a player, but right now he looks more like another Drouin than an impact player. This kid cannot afford to coast on auto-pilot. He's best style of game is when he is engaged Landeskog style but when was the last time we saw that?
 
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Mack also turned 18 in September before his rookie year. Laf turned 19 in October and the season began in January. Not only is scoring up a considerable amount but Laf is a full year older. Mack turned 21 going into his D+4 and Laf will be 22 for the entirety of his.
And Laf's draft class had COVID disruptions to their development. There are a LOT of variables, sure. Again, I'm saying his numbers are not a chasm away.
Mac's D+4 he had 53 points with 14 on the pp. Laf's D+3 he had 39 with 2 on the pp. That gives Mac a 39 to 37 EV point advantage going by age rather than draft eligibility. Personally I go by eligibility as far as development, because of the kind of coaching and programs you get as you move into major junior hockey, but I take your point.
Again, these are just numbers, I'm not trying to offend anyone's sensibilities. I'm not saying Laf will ever be as valuable as Mac. OR that it's likely, but he COULD still turn out to be an excellent player in this league.
 
On his 22nd birthday Mack had completed his D+4, broken 50+ points 3x, 60+ 1x and had 206 points in 300 games, averaging 56 points per 82 games. 54 of his 206 points came on the PP, 152 were ES.

On his 22nd birthday Laf will be starting his D+4. He had a full extra year of development prior to his NHL debut. He’s broken 30+ points 2x and has 91 points in 216 games, averaging 34 points per 82 games. 85 points at ES.

Now everyone will use ice time to explain away the chasm between the two despite one being a full year younger and the reason for the ice time discrepancy likely having something to do with the fact that the other one is just not very good.
 
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I was not saying most people were saying he would be great or most people are saying he would fail. Just acknowledging that there are multiple ways people are thinking regarding Laf.

In regards to your KK statement I was disappointed in KK after the 2021-22 season and optimistic about Laf whose effort had picked up in the second half of the 2021-22 season. Then last season (2022-23) it reversed for me because I felt like KK was giving more of an effort while I thought Laf's effort had declined.
KK also grew tremendously under Jacques Martin's tutelage. JM has always been good with youngsters.
 
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