Value of: Alexis Lafreniere Offer Sheet

[RasmusAndersson]

I know offer sheets are incredibly rare, but it seems that the Rangers are very very tight against the cap and would be incredibly vulnerable to an offer sheet of 1 year, 4 mil for Laf.

According to Capfriendly they have 6.175 in cap space with 21 players signed and K’andre Miller and Laf still unsigned. Even assuming Miller gets a bridge deal at around 4 mil per year ( I could easily see him getting up to 5-6 mil), that would leave only 2.175 for Laf. Even if they commit to a 22 man roster, that would leave 3 mil for Laf.

If a team were to take a risk and offer sheet him to 1 year at 4.25 mil (would only cost a 2nd as compensation), would the Rangers not be absolutely screwed? It seems to me that their only disposable asset is Goodrow, and I don’t see anyone taking on that contract. They could look at moving Trouba or Trocheck, but that seems like it would require significant cap gymnastists and would be very difficult to pull off given their expensive contracts with term left.

I know it’s very unlikely, but I think this would be a prime offer sheet opportunity for a team with cap space who wants to take a shot on a high-potential young player who is buried on the Rangers depth chart. And I bet Laf would jump at the politburo to sign an offer sheet for that exact reason.

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[pickles555]

No

 

[The Crypto Guy]

No

 

[RasmusAndersson]

No

No

Why lol

 

[Taluss]

We have seen contracts moved that are as bad as Goodrows. Not saying it will be cheap but it’s nothing to worry about.

I think to try and pry Laf out of NY you would need a multi year deal at above 4m.

 

[Qwijibo]

Hasn’t this been discussed ad nauseam already

 

[Fire Sweeney]

Why would a team waste assets and cap space on Lafreniere again ?

 

[BLNY]

The only justification I can think of for an offer sheet of this nature would be that the compensation is likely less than what he might get in trade.

That said, I don't see anyone doing it.

 

[cwede]

But why should Laf sign it?
For a few short-term bucks?

He likes it in NY, and a new coach offers a clean slate,
i think you only get his attention with a high Hit, long deal,
which could really squeeze NYR
but also force offer team to paying high price ...

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Why would a team waste assets and cap space on Lafreniere again ?

That’s funny. Who wants a .5 PPG recent first overall who is 21 produces 2nd line numbers with bottom-6 minutes?

You know Newhook just got a 1st and a 2nd right?

But why should Laf sign it?
For a few short-term bucks?

He likes it in NY, and a new coach offers a clean slate,
i think you only get his attention with a high Hit, long deal,
which could really squeeze NYR
but also force offer team to paying high price ...

Complete speculation. you really think he likes being buried in the bottom-6 and likely being lowballed this summer? If he could litetally double his likely paycheck with NYR while also getting a bigger role (and chance to increase his production substantially elsewhere), he would actually be stupid not to sign it.

Hasn’t this been discussed ad nauseam already

My apologies if it has, I just wanted to revisit it now that the Rangers and most teams have their rosters somewhat finalized.

 

[Alluckks]

When it doesn't happen are you gonna do us all a favor and add a signature to your posts that you have no idea what you're talking about?

 

[RasmusAndersson]

We have seen contracts moved that are as bad as Goodrows. Not saying it will be cheap but it’s nothing to worry about.

I think to try and pry Laf out of NY you would need a multi year deal at above 4m.

You mean to get Laf to agree to the offer sheet? Maybe Goodrow could be moved, but it would be quite expensive. Like if you have to move a 1st to move that contract just to keep Laf in the bottom-6 at over 4 mil, is that worth it? Maybe yes, but would put NY in a pretty bad spot

 

[jkrdevil]

You can go 10% over. NY would match (unless you throw insane money at him, which you end up shooting yourself in the long run) and make a subsequent move to get under.

 

[pickles555]

My apologies if it has, I just wanted to revisit it now that the Rangers and most teams have their rosters somewhat finalized.

i don't think anybody has a roster finalized in july

 

[LemonSauceD]

 

[Taluss]

You mean to get Laf to agree to the offer sheet? Maybe Goodrow could be moved, but it would be quite expensive. Like if you have to move a 1st to move that contract just to keep Laf in the bottom-6 at over 4 mil, is that worth it? Maybe yes, but would put NY in a pretty bad spot

No clue if Laf would want to leave NY. I’d imagine for Montreal he would but idk.

Rangers seem like they don’t want to part with Laf. So I think they would match any offersheet that doesn’t return the 1st +.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

When it doesn't happen are you gonna do us all a favor and add a signature to your posts that you have no idea what you're talking about?

I literally said it’s incredibly unlikely lol. What part is confusing you?

 

[Alluckks]

I literally said it’s incredibly unlikely lol. What part is confusing you?

The part where you fought with people and said he'd be stupid to not sign it

 

[RasmusAndersson]

You can go 10% over. NY would match (unless you throw insane money at him, which you end up shooting yourself in the long run) and make a subsequent move to get under.

No clue if Laf would want to leave NY. I’d imagine for Montreal he would but idk.

Rangers seem like they don’t want to part with Laf. So I think they would match any offersheet that doesn’t return the 1st +.

I agree they would definitely attempt to make other moves to make it possible to afford him at 4 mil, but what does that actually entail? Shipping a core piece like Trouba or Trocheck? Moving a 1st to move Goodrow? I agree it’s definitely possible, but would put them in a really tough spot and make them make other moves that would likely hurt

 

[RasmusAndersson]

The part where you fought with people and said he'd be stupid to not sign it

He would be stupid lol. He’s buried in the bottom-6 behind two high end top-6 LW locked in for 3 years. NY could only afford to offer him 2 mil. Would you take 2 mil to either play bottom-6 or on your off-wing for the next 3 years, or take 4 mil to play top-6 LW somewhere similar to NY? Not that tough of a choice. What’s the counter-argument? That he likes New York?

i don't think anybody has a roster finalized in july

Somewhat finalized being the key word lol. But I just meant as team’s cap situations become more clear it will be easier to know which teams can and can’t afford signing RFA’s to certain contracts.

 

[Toene]

When it doesn't happen are you gonna do us all a favor and add a signature to your posts that you have no idea what you're talking about?

Why the hostility towards that poster? Get over yourself and chill the f*** out. You better always offer perfect takes if you join a discussion with this attitude. A "Value of" thread to boot, which is supposed to be fun speculation.

 

[KevinRedkey]

I think either of these is what it would take for NYI to not match:

1 Year Deal:
Year 1: $6,435,186
Qualifying offer in 2024: $6,435,186

2 Year Deal:
Year 1: $5,476,754
Year 2: $7,393,618
Qualifying offer in 2025: $7,393,618

3 Year Deal:
Year 1: $4,626,857
Year 2: $6,246,256
Year 3: $8,432,445
Qualifying Offer in 2026: $8,432,445

All three options have a cap hit of $6,435,186 which offers comensation of a 1st and 3rd round picks

 

[Philadelphia Ducks]

He would be stupid lol. He’s buried in the bottom-6 behind two high end top-6 LW locked in for 3 years. NY could only afford to offer him 2 mil. Would you take 2 mil to either play bottom-6 or on your off-wing for the next 3 years, or take 4 mil to play top-6 LW somewhere similar to NY? Not that tough of a choice. What’s the counter-argument? That he likes New York?

Yea I'd take 2 mil to play on NY third line. Sheltered minutes, become a millionaire, play less each night so you can have a longer career. Sign me up.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Why the hostility towards that poster? Get over yourself and chill the f*** out. You better always offer perfect takes if you join a discussion with this attitude. A "Value of" thread to boot, which is supposed to be fun speculation.

Appreciate that. Thank you. I just wanted to have a fun discussion.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Yea I'd take 2 mil to play on NY third line. Sheltered minutes, become a millionaire, play less each night so you can have a longer career. Sign me up.

That’s kinda fair, I can see the thought process. But if I were his agent I’d tell him I still think he’d just be leaving tons of money on the table in his prime (not just this year, but the next few years after if he were given a much bigger opportunity and became a 50-60 point guy instead of 30-40 points with limited PP time). That’s the difference between like 3.5-4 mil and 5.5-6.5 mil on his next contract.

And I’m not actually sure he’d have a much longer career playing 3rd line for a few more years than 2nd line somewhere else, but maybe it’s a bit of a consideration.

If Laf really thinks that way then fair he should stay, but I think if it were me I’d definitely wanna bet on myself and try to get a bigger role on a similarly good team with a need at LW to really cash in on my next contract.